5th gate on the horizon?

[rteetz]

I thought Pete's prediction was that "someone" would build another gate in Orlando. Which is rather different from "Disney will build a 5th gate." I find that much easier to believe.

The economics don't make sense for a 5th gate on all sorts of levels:

• Building new park infrastructure is hugely expensive but gains you nothing over expanding existing parks
• The last time they built a park it cannibalized their own market.
• Needing that many more people would likely trigger an increase in labor costs.
• The existing parks (except MK) are operating well below current capacity never mind future capacity
• Since people aren't getting turned away from the parks a new park would have to entice an entirely new audience... who is that exactly?
• The company currently has (widely reported) substantial problems maintaining project budgets, why would you try to build a new park if you haven't solved that?
• The fact that someone somewhere once proposed a plan for a 5th gate means very little. They also had plans for an indoor park and an American History park and all sorts of other things that never got built.

Yes but he also said once Universal builds a 3rd gate Disney's only answer can be a fifth gate which is what I disagree with.

 

[George4]

You take care of the crowds by significantly raising prices. I think that explains the steep price increase for various annual passes.

ANd that does explain the price increases, but at some point, if people feel that you are pricing them out of the parks, they may abandon your products altogether, and Disney can't have that. The annual passes are mostly purchased by Americans, and so if they push them away too hard, that hurts one of their core markets for all of Disney's other products.

 

[George4]

Until the current 4 parks, are developed to their highest capacity, the need for a 5th gate is next to Zero.
You can add a new park with Star Wars land, Avatar land, Beastly Kingdom, Pixar place OR you can place them in the existing parks, getting the same customer capacity, without having the logistics of creating a new park.

That's not a bad idea, until you realize that in many senses, these parks are at their capacities. Magic Kingdom barely can feed the people coming through its door on moderately busy days (lunch waits of over an hour), and DHS and AK aren't far behind. All three of these parks also reach a point fairly consistently where their main entryway is completely swamped with people and it is difficult to move through the parks. Even if you keep adding rides, if you can't get them past the main drag to to all of the congestion, and you can't feed them efficiently, then people will stop coming. You can increase park capacity some by adding attractions, but you are also going to need to increase the walking spaces in these parks if you are setting them up to hold another 10,000 people each.

 

[sachilles]

Avatarland, Star Wars Land and Toy Story land are adding acreage to their respective parks, with the respective services. Entrance bottle necks are a realistic problem, but adding a new gate doesn't solve that. Adding an alternate entrance to existing parks may.

 

[Eoghann]

I don't buy claims that the parks are reaching capacity. In terms of space the only one that's actually close to capacity is the Magic Kingdom. The others could absorb far more people if they had a full compliment of attractions. And even the MK has potential for expansion. They have solutions underway to address some of the bottlenecks.

 

[lockedoutlogic]

ANd that does explain the price increases, but at some point, if people feel that you are pricing them out of the parks, they may abandon your products altogether, and Disney can't have that. The annual passes are mostly purchased by Americans, and so if they push them away too hard, that hurts one of their core markets for all of Disney's other products.

Until now...Disney had operated under the premise that their products beat the competitors offerings lb for lb in nearly every scenario...broadcast cable being one of end exceptions.

But those things are changing...they know they are vulnerable in some markets that just a few years ago were fairly untouchable. The world evolves and as it does...when you stray away from being just the "all American leading company"...new variables and realities take hold.

Disney is limbo...in fact all business is right now. The difference is they used to be as well equipped to deal with it as any. Not so sure now.

 

[George4]

I don't buy claims that the parks are reaching capacity. In terms of space the only one that's actually close to capacity is the Magic Kingdom. The others could absorb far more people if they had a full compliment of attractions. And even the MK has potential for expansion. They have solutions underway to address some of the bottlenecks.

You may not believe it, but it is happening. And it isn't the attractions that are the limiting factor, it is the walkway capacity.

 

[rteetz]

You may not believe it, but it is happening. And it isn't the attractions that are the limiting factor, it is the walkway capacity.

Eliminate most of those strollers and you have more room

The amount of people in the parks definitely has increased but I don't think they are at or near capacity just yet except for those special days like Christmas and New Years.

 

[lockedoutlogic]

You may not believe it, but it is happening. And it isn't the attractions that are the limiting factor, it is the walkway capacity.

The "crowded" level of the parks is entirely conjecture...because we
Will never know actual crowds or capacities...

But my opinion is this is completely wrong.

It's NOT the paths...it's lack of capacity In attractions and venues...not geographic space.

 

[George4]

The "crowded" level of the parks is entirely conjecture...because we
Will never know actual crowds or capacities...

But my opinion is this is completely wrong.

It's NOT the paths...it's lack of capacity In attractions and venues...not geographic space.

You're right that we will likely never really know, but we will have to agree to disagree. I have been when the paths are so full you can't even walk. Is that mostly just holidays? Of course, but the fact that you can barely move means in the event of a real emergency, people can't get to or away form the problem, and that means that they are past the pathway capacity at times.

You and I will just have to respectfully disagree.

 

[lockedoutlogic]

You're right that we will likely never really know, but we will have to agree to disagree. I have been when the paths are so full you can't even walk. Is that mostly just holidays? Of course, but the fact that you can barely move means in the event of a real emergency, people can't get to or away form the problem, and that means that they are past the pathway capacity at times.

You and I will just have to respectfully disagree.

We do...

My theory is that really crappy, repetitive giftshops and fastpass+...ironically...have flushed people onto the paths.

What days are you speaking of, by the way? Just for a frame of reference?

 

[Lesverts]

I do not advocate a 5th gate. I think many of you have valid points that a 5th gate is not the best use of money, time and resources. But to be so dismissive of it is ridiculous.

If Disney had say 6 billion dollars (using one estimate of Shanghai Disneyland) to spend in addition to what has already been earmarked for DHS and Animal Kingdom. I would rather have that be used to heavily re-imagine Future World and potential re-imagine all of Epcot into a more timeless, easily maintained park. Adding a few pavilions and the like and Epcot is good to go. Also building more resorts that are not solely DVC. Also adding another Pixar/Wreck-it-Ralph/Big Hero Six area to DHS and build over the north end of Rivers of America and behind Liberty Square like they are doing at Disneyland.

That would be 5 new or completely re-imagined areas to already existing parks that could dramatically increase capacity/time usage and take the pressure off of Magic Kingdom without building a 5th gate. But Disney could have spent all that money that went into Animal Kingdom to development of Epcot 2 decades ago. Or not rushed DHS. Or you get the picture. Nothing drives interest and excitement like a new park. So we might end up with 4 half parks and one Magic Kingdom by 2030.

 

[Spacedog1975]

I do not advocate a 5th gate. I think many of you have valid points that a 5th gate is not the best use of money, time and resources. But to be so dismissive of it is ridiculous.

If Disney had say 6 billion dollars (using one estimate of Shanghai Disneyland) to spend in addition to what has already been earmarked for DHS and Animal Kingdom. I would rather have that be used to heavily re-imagine Future World and potential re-imagine all of Epcot into a more timeless, easily maintained park. Adding a few pavilions and the like and Epcot is good to go. Also building more resorts that are not solely DVC. Also adding another Pixar/Wreck-it-Ralph/Big Hero Six area to DHS and build over the north end of Rivers of America and behind Liberty Square like they are doing at Disneyland.

That would be 5 new or completely re-imagined areas to already existing parks that could dramatically increase capacity/time usage and take the pressure off of Magic Kingdom without building a 5th gate. But Disney could have spent all that money that went into Animal Kingdom to development of Epcot 2 decades ago. Or not rushed DHS. Or you get the picture. Nothing drives interest and excitement like a new park. So we might end up with 4 half parks and one Magic Kingdom by 2030.

Given current plans, DHS and DAK reasonably shouldn't be 1/2 parks by 2030. Epcot needs serious love though. Future World needs a reboot.

 

[Eoghann]

I do not advocate a 5th gate. I think many of you have valid points that a 5th gate is not the best use of money, time and resources. But to be so dismissive of it is ridiculous.
.

People are dismissive of it (or at least I am) because it's one of those rumors that pops up every month or so and is based entirely on wishful thinking rather than any sort of logic. Much like "Marvel land at WDW!"

 

[Eoghann]

You may not believe it, but it is happening. And it isn't the attractions that are the limiting factor, it is the walkway capacity.

Just because you feel it is too crowded, doesn't mean it's actually too crowded. If it was actually a fire hazard they would close the park (because they'd have to legally), but that very rarely happens.

In the MK they rather bring it on themselves by front loading the park. All the big events/parades happen on Main Street or in front of the Castle. Take a look around the rest of the park while parades are happening, it's very quiet. But they've already partially addressed that with the wider circle and the secondary exit.

If they had additional attractions elsewhere in the park, it absolutely would impact walkway capacity. In fact a large part of New Fantasyland's function was to spread guests out, which supposedly added a few thousand to the park's capacity.

Crowds in DHS and AK are down to construction and some poor park layout.

 

[Spacedog1975]

If they had additional attractions elsewhere in the park, it absolutely would impact walkway capacity. In fact a large part of New Fantasyland's function was to spread guests out, which supposedly added a few thousand to the park's capacity.
QUOTE]

Personally, I love the way NFL feels, particularly beyond BOG. Each time I've been there, it's been the most open, unpopulated part of the park.

 

[lockedoutlogic]

People are dismissive of it (or at least I am) because it's one of those rumors that pops up every month or so and is based entirely on wishful thinking rather than any sort of logic. Much like "Marvel land at WDW!"

This...and it makes ZERO sense when you look at it below the surface.

It's hard to apologize for those that try to look at it from a pragmatic standpoint.

 

[Lee Matthews]

I personally think all this construction at WDW is to get everything they current have up to standard. Disney Springs, Animal Kingdom and DHS work will help bring more people into those areas. Once Star Wars land and Toy Story land is complete it wouldn't surprise me if Disney then announced a 5th gate in response to Universal who i think will announce a 3rd park within the next 2 years.

Saying that i think Universal/IOA needs ALOT of work before they think of a 3rd gate

 

[Flyerjab]

Simply put, most posters on this thread are correct. The other areas of WDW need to be enhanced to take the strain off of MK. That park does get crowded, and not just on New Year's, Christmas and July 4th. Disney Springs and Animal Kingdom are in the thick of major overhauls, in both overall footprint and new attractions/restaurants/merchandise. Obviously, DHS is about to undergo a serious change in layout and overall ride count. And one can pretty much be certain of the fact that if a fully themed Star Wars Land is built with signature attractions; well, that in and of itself should siphon people away from the MK (and the other 2 parks unfortunately). Epcot is the next step...and FW being the big question mark. If this trend of "fixing" the parks continues, hopefully Epcot is in the overall plan somewhere. The TEA numbers for MK, EP, DHS and AK last year were (roughly) 19 million, 12 million, 10.1 million and 10.2 million. This needs to change long before WDW would even entertain the thought of adding a 5th gate.

 

[George4]

We do...

My theory is that really crappy, repetitive giftshops and fastpass+...ironically...have flushed people onto the paths.

What days are you speaking of, by the way? Just for a frame of reference?

I agree with you with regards to the gift shop issue.

In the past year, the days that were incredibly crowded were last July 4 and this past Saturday (of MLK weekend). If they could get people to actually spread out in their parks, their plan might work, and admittedly it has worked to some extent. Unfortunately, all those people still move through the hub at MK, around the fountain at EPCOT and up main street at DHS. All of these paths were borderline unpassable on those two days. The park may not have reached any sort of capacity, but those paths were way past what should be their max capacity. Tomorrowland got nearly that crowded as well on both of those dates. IF there were a reasonable to widen these paths then I would agree that these parks could be expanded, and some dramatically, without building a fifth gate. But I think it might actually be cheaper to build a fifth gate than to fix some of these problems.

I also may want to clarify that I don't think is imminent in any form. As an observer, I think it may be smart to begin looking at the land set aside for the fifth gate to determine if they may need it in the next 10-15 years. You can't decide to suddenly build a new gate and rush it to fruition, or you end up with a park with a layout like DHS.