Posting for next year's reference while I wait for family to ride.
The area in front of the train station was packed this morning. We actually stayed back almost near security to see the welcome show and that place filled. About panicked my husband. But I said not to worry based on what I read here. Once crowds died down, we walked leisurely to Frontierland. Posted waits are 10 minutes for thunder and 5 for splash. Thunder is a literal walk on. I think splash is as well, but I am sitting out.
Older kids texted that mine train line was full, so they skipped. Having no other waits.
Here are some picture from this morning.
Busses appeared full...but not quite sardine level. Ferry also off loaded a bunch of people. Lots--but it didn't seem swarming. Monorail off loaded a bit as well.
Special morning show that featured Frozen characters but was otherwise the same. The family selected was dressed as Peter Pan, tink, and Tiger Lilly. From a distance, some kids thought it was really tink. Parents may have as well.
Passing under the train station...the swarm of people behind us.

But--quick stop for Sorceror's cards (would have been nice for them to have a special one, but none).
Hard to see--but no more swarms entering. I think initial crowds are folks trying to do all 24 hours and those who wanted to see the show or be there first (or like is have other plans and are just squeezing in some prime ride time).
By 6:10--this was Main Street. Not as crowded as it looks. Folks are pausing for the requisite castle pic.
And just a couple of minutes later..an empty Adventureland.
5 minute "wait" at Pirates.
The 10 minute "wait" at Big Thunder.
We had fast passes for the sake of having them. But didn't use them. Not needed. (Except maybe for Mine train to avoid the wait when everything else seems to be walk on or near wall on.)
My son is on ride #3 of BTMRR and my husband and daughter were waved on through for ride #2 at Splash.
Additional info--we stayed at BLT and check out today. We packed last night and had most of the kids sleep in today's clothes. Breakfast was leftover pizza that we ate while watching the show. We loaded our car bright and early at 5:25 and arrived via walkway to MK by about 10 or so until arriving just in the for Frozen and company to begin the festivities. Kids range in age: high school, middle school, elementary school, and new baby.
We liked having to avoid all transportation concerns by staying so close. We did not book with intent to do the 24 hour day. But secured our DVC sometime around February or March. Not too bad for not being our home resort.
Due to other plans, most of us will be departing to do those.
Good luck to all those going the distance!
(Still from my video--I forgot to make full size. Click to view.)