2042 Prediction(s)

[StarCruzer]

Edit to add:
Here's a thought I have not seen mentioned; what if they offered up OKW as condos? They could get a fortune for those and they are fully contained units.

I think the risk here is the same thing that happened with Celebration Village. The property has the Disney name on it so it would likely require a strict HOA. Disney would need a level of control over upkeep (maintenance, lawn services, pest control, etc.) that would potentially turn away buyers.

And inevitably, unless they place residency restrictions on it, people will simply turn them into Airbnb or other short term rentals to make a quick buck.

 

[Cfabar1]

I think the risk here is the same thing that happened with Celebration Village. The property has the Disney name on it so it would likely require a strict HOA. Disney would need a level of control over upkeep (maintenance, lawn services, pest control, etc.) that would potentially turn away buyers.

And inevitably, unless they place residency restrictions on it, people will simply turn them into Airbnb or other short term rentals to make a quick buck.

I wonder when Disney sees the current sales price for Celebration homes if they have any regrets... My guess is no....

Celebration was another Eisner vision... very big and bold...

I think the beach resorts on the one hand are a distraction from the core business, on the other hand they nicely round out the DVC portfolio, and if DVC opened about 2-5 more non-Disney resort locations, it would really make the entire DVC product more compelling and competitive with Marriott and Hilton and Hyatt... It really wouldn't take too much....

 

[muppets3d]

I don’t think people are obsessed with the idea they’ll sell the beach resorts?

Just like, why wouldn’t they?

They fill out the dvc portfolio for one thing.

 

[bdrex28]

I think that both BWV and BCV are great resorts and it's why they are so often booked. I don't see them doing a tear down and re-build. If they did that, they lose a lot of inventory during this time period which means they lose money. My guess is they offer creative "extensions" or even new contracts but give current owners first opportunity. You never want to give the impression of not appreciating your current clients/owners. Perhaps they take a portion of these two and build vertically or take a section of the resorts and build vertical with a re-design. But a complete tear down? I just don't see it.

When speaking of Crescent Lake I think it's the best location of all resorts for so many people, especially with the way Hollywood Studios has expanded and Epcot with the festivals, etc.

What has always surprised me is the fact they allowed Marriott to have Dolphin and Swan and then add the new Tower to those two as well. That is/was PRIME location for Disney to add DVC or retail locations that are pure Disney owned. I've read some of the history of the building of the two and the concern for lack of convention space, etc. but to me these two hotels are not very pleasing aesthetically at all. Now, I've stayed in them with Marriott points, especially when I get into Orlando late and want a one night stay prior to my WDW reservation beginning.

In truth, I think we all have our favorites and our own version of the best location, best resort, etc. etc. I will fully admit it's hard for me take my bias out of any opinion I have.

I guess all I really have to add to this, is I don't think they'll do a rebuild/tear down of the Crescent Lake locations. If anything, I'd love to see CBR go through a massive upgrade and change. It's a great location and I like the idea of the theme.

All this aside, to me I think Disney needs to find a way to add young fans of Disney again. As a whole, I think the newest generations aren't growing up with "Disney" like they did in the 60s, 70s, 80s and even the 90s. A lot of failed movies, failed choices and lack of original content is hurting. I also think Disney hasn't taken advantage of the classic movies to theme around as much as they could.

But that's an entirely different topic.

 

[tjkraz]

I hope these close out of the DVC family. They only exist as DVC properties because they were places Michael Eisner liked to go on vacation.

WDW resorts are harder to book with all of the non-WDW points floating around. Just my opinion, though.

There are currently more than 80 million points in the DVC system and Vero + Hilton Head represent less than 3 million points total. Even if a significant portion of those 3M points were being used for other destinations, it wouldn't cause much more than a blip in 7 month availability elsewhere.

Aulani may have a greater impact, but it's also incredibly popular at 7 months during much of the year.

Reselling Hilton Head and Vero points in 2042 seems very unlikely. The more obvious approach would seem to be putting them in a trust with other resorts. That way DVC could keep the resorts as part of the program without having to specifically attract buyers for those locations.

As for the original post: No other extensions; the DVC program will continue to evolve as it has with things like resale restrictions and (possibly) Trust; I don't think even Disney knows what it will do with the 2042 resorts; no chance of DVC going away.

 

[Cfabar1]

As for the original post: No other extensions; the DVC program will continue to evolve as it has with things like resale restrictions and (possibly) Trust; I don't think even Disney knows what it will do with the 2042 resorts; no chance of DVC going away.

This is my view as well.... Although, I find it difficult to see how much more they can do to have resale restrictions....

 

[Lumpy1106]

I wonder when Disney sees the current sales price for Celebration homes if they have any regrets... My guess is no....

Celebration was another Eisner vision... very big and bold...

I think the beach resorts on the one hand are a distraction from the core business, on the other hand they nicely round out the DVC portfolio, and if DVC opened about 2-5 more non-Disney resort locations, it would really make the entire DVC product more compelling and competitive with Marriott and Hilton and Hyatt... It really wouldn't take too much....

There were very real discussions about Disney owning this one - not sure of the exact timeline. It's a Marriott now. My FiL had one for years but has gotten rid of it now. It's close enough to DL that you could stay there in fact. Ultimately Disney gave it a pass, so...
https://www.marriott.com/en-us/hote...p.ds&cid=PAI_GLB0004YXE_GLE000BIMM_GLF000OETR

 

[Lumpy1106]

This is my view as well.... Although, I find it difficult to see how much more they can do to have resale restrictions....

Personally the strong resale market is the one thing that gives me confidence in owning DVC. I really can sell it and get real value out of it - it is not the pyramid scheme so many other timeshares are. If they want people to buy direct, they need to add value to owning direct - not punish people for owning resale.

 

[Lumpy1106]

Definitely a fun exercise. Pretty sure we could figure out what the ballpark of an site condo might be but I have to imagine it is North of 2.5 million per full unit. I don't think there would be many takers at that price for Central FL in 2042.

That's a bargain compared to Golden Oaks. Definitely not in my tax bracket, but not unrealistic.
https://www.disneygoldenoak.com/available-homes/

 

[tjkraz]

Personally the strong resale market is the one thing that gives me confidence in owning DVC. I really can sell it and get real value out of it - it is not the pyramid scheme so many other timeshares are. If they want people to buy direct, they need to add value to owning direct - not punish people for owning resale.

Many of us who have owned for 10+ years say this about confidence to resell. It was definitely a bullet point on my decision-making checklist. But what we can't answer is whether or not that would have been a deal-breaker in any meaningful sense. If resale points had ALWAYS been limited to a single resort and resale values adjusted accordingly, would I have still bought my first contract? Yeah, probably. In 20+ years, it's paid for itself many times over. And even restricted DVC points still have tremendous value.

DVC would have lost some risk-averse buyers, as they do today. But it's impossible to put a number on that. Maybe some buyers would have been less aggressive in adding-on.

DVC has done a pretty good job (IMO) of adding perks for direct buyers. Lounges, nighttime events, annual passes, Welcome Home Weeks, etc. Problem due to the expiring nature of contracts, they're now always battling cheap expiring contracts. There's no perk they can offer which bridges the gap between $70 resale and $200 direct if both owners get the same rights and benefits. And those prices will drop to $60 then $50 then $40 in the coming years.

 

[SugarSweetLee]

Many of us who have owned for 10+ years say this about confidence to resell. It was definitely a bullet point on my decision-making checklist. But what we can't answer is whether or not that would have been a deal-breaker in any meaningful sense. If resale points had ALWAYS been limited to a single resort and resale values adjusted accordingly, would I have still bought my first contract? Yeah, probably. In 20+ years, it's paid for itself many times over. And even restricted DVC points still have tremendous value.

DVC would have lost some risk-averse buyers, as they do today. But it's impossible to put a number on that. Maybe some buyers would have been less aggressive in adding-on.

DVC has done a pretty good job (IMO) of adding perks for direct buyers. Lounges, nighttime events, annual passes, Welcome Home Weeks, etc. Problem due to the expiring nature of contracts, they're now always battling cheap expiring contracts. There's no perk they can offer which bridges the gap between $70 resale and $200 direct if both owners get the same rights and benefits. And those prices will drop to $60 then $50 then $40 in the coming years.

Isn't that what ROFR is for?

 

[BayTower2010]

Two posts: first HHI and Vero Beach will be sold. Disney has already signaled this. Both resorts Disney owned adjacent land and Disney sold off the land. This tells you they have no future plans for these resorts. The value of the land these resorts sit on has increased dramatically, so Disney will make a very nice profit on the sale.

 

[BayTower2010]

Second: BWV is a gold mine. The lay out is bad, lots of wasted space. I see a total tear down and Rebuild. Add one maybe two stories, add elevators, better room design, and make it all DVC. The location is terrific, the vibe is great. It is still highly sort after on the secondary market. We are talking about an over one Billion net income resort---And probably with record quick sales time. I could see Beach Club and Boulder ridge being a quick refurb and back up as new 50 year contract. This will be needed as the BWV rebuild will take time.

 

[tjkraz]

Isn't that what ROFR is for?

Not unless Disney plans to buy back every single contract as expiration dates get closer.

 

[tjkraz]

Two posts: first HHI and Vero Beach will be sold. Disney has already signaled this. Both resorts Disney owned adjacent land and Disney sold off the land. This tells you they have no future plans for these resorts. The value of the land these resorts sit on has increased dramatically, so Disney will make a very nice profit on the sale.

There's a significant difference between not developing additional land vs re-selling an already developed property. I don't know what land goes for in those areas but 3-4M Vero + Hilton Head points potentially re-sold in 2042 for $250+ each is a nice chunk of change. And once sold, there's almost no overhead for Disney since member dues cover operating costs, taxes and upkeep. Disney actually profits from breakage inventory. And there's some intangible benefit to DVC having destinations outside of the two theme parks. More than a few spouses have been swayed into buying after hearing that "you don't have to go to the parks every year; there's also Hawaii, South Carolina and the Florida coast." (RCI fills that role to some extent, but having native resorts owned and operated by Disney is more straightforward.)

Vero isn't much of a tourist area. The beach is lined with private homes. And there are even some undeveloped plots. The land Disney sold off nearby is being developed as residential. Not sure it's fair to conclude that buyers would line up to acquire it from Disney. Hilton Head would probably fetch more interest, but its value is diminished by the fact that the hotel isn't located on the Atlantic coast.

EDIT: The sale price of the unused Vero land wasn't disclosed but before the sale in October 2019, the full resort including both developed and undeveloped land appraised for $4.6 million. If you rework the point charts to get about 1.5M points and sell them as part of a trust beginning in 2042 for ~$250 each...

https://dvcnews.com/other-resorts/vero-beach/4607-disney-completes-sale-of-undeveloped-vero-land

 

[StarCruzer]

Not unless Disney plans to buy back every single contract as expiration dates get closer.

Which would rob them of a big chunk of maintenance fees in the last years of a contract. So I agree with what folks are saying here, that it's better for them just just let the contracts sell for rock bottom prices for the last 5-10 years of the contracts.

In my best estimation, anyway.

 

[Cfabar1]

My suspicion is folks at DVC spend a lot less time right now considering 2042 than those of us on this board do!

 

[TheDailyMoo]

A 2042 expiration adjacent prediction...AKV will have a resurgence in resale price. If in fact the Crescent lake resorts move to a much higher point chart, and Disney is still a popular vacation destination, people will be clamoring for the chance to grab 9 point a night rooms while inflation will probably have taken retail hotel rooms into the stratosphere along with the price of direct contracts sold by Disney. At that point even if you couldn't snag a value room, the standard rooms will still be one of the cheapest on property and you're staying in a beautifully themed resort set in a zoo.

 

[Mikey15]

Yes, they tore down an entire village at CBR and built RIV on that land. If you can find a pre-2017 (? - not sure when demo started) map of CBR and compare it to now, you'll see the difference.

On Google (or other) maps you can even still see an orphaned parking lot from when there were CBR buildings there! It’s at the very north corner of the Riv property and appears to be gated off.

 

[DVCsloth]

I think Disney may tear down and rebuild BCV/BWV, Maybe leave one resort open for Cash or DVC while the other is rebuilt. Possibly make points good for home resort at either one. As far as BRV, maybe offer to resell it as CCV and have it expire all at the same time.