OK, I’ll bite... I’m in the UK so my perspective is perhaps a little different from the majority hereabouts...
DW and I have 2 vacations staying in the UK this year - one in June, down to Dorset (12 months after our cancelled 2020 vacation at the same place), and one in September in Cornwall. Both self-catering apartments (our preference as we‘ve never really liked the constraints of a hotel). Those will hopefully go ahead with no major issues.
And then we have our Florida trip - 23 days just after Thanksgiving (which we booked back in January 2020 when the first rumors of a new flu were just creeping out of China) to celebrate the 50th. At present I think that the odds on that one happening are perhaps 1 in 5 as so much will need to change:
No requirement for face masks in airports and on planes. Not acceptable for a 10 hour trip. I can tolerate a mask for 20 minutes in the grocery store because it’s both sensible and necessary, but any longer than that and I get anxious, irritable and downright hostile
No face masks at WDW. There’s no way we would even attempt Florida wearing face coverings of any sort (think how many we would have to carry, changing them every hour or so as they get soaked by sweat and humidity). We like the Florida weather in November and December - but not with anything wrapped round our faces
Resumption of the full WDW experience (shows, parades, all hotels and restaurants open, fireworks, ‘proper’ park-hopping, ‘proper’ night-time hours, full World Showcase entertainers at Epcot etc). The whole experience is so cut-down at present that it’s simply not worth it to us
Resumption of normal park admission. I’m not prepared to pay for park tickets 11 months in advance in order to guarantee admission, nor book specific days in specific parks so far in advance (rain and thunderstorms on a scheduled park day?) and if we wait until we arrive we could in theory find no availability at all.
And finally - full vaccinations, properly taken up by enough people to create community immunity. DW and I will be first in line when the UK roll-out reaches us; we’ve scrupulously avoided cinemas, bars, restaurants, shops etc (except for essential food shopping) for the last 9 months and we won’t risk our health if we don’t believe it’s safe, on planes or anywhere else.
<sigh> Even if Disney is offering free rebooking of tickets by this coming August, when the balances fall due for our flights (providing also that
Virgin Atlantic is still around by then), villa and car, at least we will only lose the (very small) deposits involved if cancellation becomes the only sensible option. We’re not getting any younger (both in our 60s) and deferring until Fall 2022 may not be possible for any number of reasons including our own medical prospects. We’re seriously beginning to believe that our December 2019 trip will prove to have been our last trip to the USA...
.
