2020 Tropical Storms/Hurricanes

  • ParrotBill

    Yo ho, yo ho, a parrot's life for me
    Joined
    Feb 10, 2005
    There is a disturbance in the Gulf heading toward the Texas Coast and not likely to get very strong.

    The depression below is expected to be a tropical storm but probably no more than that. It's small and could fluctuate a lot in path or strength yet. Any impact to Florida is far away and not likely to be a concern.
    512357
     

    hertamaniac

    Dis Veteran
    Joined
    Feb 9, 2017
    There is a disturbance in the Gulf heading toward the Texas Coast and not likely to get very strong.

    The depression below is expected to be a tropical storm but probably no more than that. It's small and could fluctuate a lot in path or strength yet. Any impact to Florida is far away and not likely to be a concern.
    View attachment 512357
    Gonzalo is expected to become a hurricane before entering the Caribbean.

     

    Spridell

    DIS Veteran
    Joined
    Jul 16, 2016
    Gonzalo NOT looking too good today and is weakening pretty quickly. I dont know if it will even get to Hurricane status.

    Now, the one BEHIND Gonzalo that is just coming off Africa now that I have my eye on.

    I am looking at todays run of the Euro model and if I were going to be in Florida the first week of Aug I would start paying attention.

    Things will change but I am keeping my eye on this one especially for Florida.
     


  • Llama mama

    DIS Veteran
    Joined
    Jan 6, 2019
    Gonzalo NOT looking too good today and is weakening pretty quickly. I dont know if it will even get to Hurricane status.

    Now, the one BEHIND Gonzalo that is just coming off Africa now that I have my eye on.

    I am looking at todays run of the Euro model and if I were going to be in Florida the first week of Aug I would start paying attention.

    Things will change but I am keeping my eye on this one especially for Florida.
    No!!!!!!!!!! 🤦‍♀️ Arrival 7/31
     

    hertamaniac

    Dis Veteran
    Joined
    Feb 9, 2017
    Living in central Florida for 35 years, I can safely say the number of times there's been any direct impact on regular life caused by hurricanes is about a handful. Not that we shouldn't always keep an eye out, but the chances are slim is all :)
    I've been here for ~20 years, but all it took was a visit to Mexico Beach last year after hurricane Michael hit to see a complete leveling of the area for miles and miles (I'm talking like 20-30+ miles inland). It was then I saw first hand the power of CAT-5 and hope we don't see anything like that again.

    I also remember last year when hurricane Dorian (CAT 5+ @183 MPH) was steamrolling into Orlando and then changed course at the last second to stay out to sea (barely). Whew!
     
  • AmberMV

    DIS Veteran
    Joined
    Apr 28, 2020
    I've been here for ~20 years, but all it took was a visit to Mexico Beach last year after hurricane Michael hit to see a complete leveling of the area for miles and miles (I'm talking like 20-30+ miles inland). It was then I saw first hand the power of CAT-5 and hope we don't see anything like that again.

    I also remember last year when hurricane Dorian (CAT 5+ @183 MPH) was steamrolling into Orlando and then changed course at the last second to stay out to sea (barely). Whew!
    Absolutely. When they do hit hard, it's devastating. I remember my Dad taking us to see the destruction Andrew caused. Central Florida has seen lots of flooding and downed power lines over the years but has been largely spared (knocks on wood). I'm glad Hurricanes are so incredibly huge that we can track them in advance the way we do. I'm more scared of tornadoes and earthquakes which are far less predictable.
     

    hertamaniac

    Dis Veteran
    Joined
    Feb 9, 2017
    The longer term projection for the low just now coming off of Africa has a model that shoots the gap between the Yucatan Peninsula and Cuba. It is targeted to reach this area ~August 3rd, but we all know how things change. So those traveling in the first/second week of August, you may want to track this particular wave.

    "So far, the Hurricane Center is only giving it a 30% chance of development within the next five days and no chance within the next two "

     

    osufeth24

    DIS Veteran
    Joined
    Jun 9, 2019
    I've been here for ~20 years, but all it took was a visit to Mexico Beach last year after hurricane Michael hit to see a complete leveling of the area for miles and miles (I'm talking like 20-30+ miles inland). It was then I saw first hand the power of CAT-5 and hope we don't see anything like that again.

    I also remember last year when hurricane Dorian (CAT 5+ @183 MPH) was steamrolling into Orlando and then changed course at the last second to stay out to sea (barely). Whew!
    yup. I was living in Destin area at the time, and it was the first time I was truly scared/nervous about a hurricane. My job at the time was at a resort too. It makes you realise just how quickly your life could change. If that hit us directly, I would have most likely be out of a job in addition to any damage to my place
     

    Spridell

    DIS Veteran
    Joined
    Jul 16, 2016
    The longer term projection for the low just now coming off of Africa has a model that shoots the gap between the Yucatan Peninsula and Cuba. It is targeted to reach this area ~August 3rd, but we all know how things change. So those traveling in the first/second week of August, you may want to track this particular wave.

    "So far, the Hurricane Center is only giving it a 30% chance of development within the next five days and no chance within the next two "

    Yes 100%

    The Euro ensembles (European run members) have a couple coming right through florida.

    But it will change. Definitely need to monitor this wave for sure. Especially florida.
     

    ParrotBill

    Yo ho, yo ho, a parrot's life for me
    Joined
    Feb 10, 2005
    Most models are consistent on a path through the NE Islands passing near PR and DR and along the Bahamas, with a curve matching the US Coast. Way too early to be more exact than that. The intensity models show strengthening but not a lot so far. But past patterns and some models show a TS or Cat 1 Hurricane, weakening, then strengthening again when it hits the warm gulf stream waters. Keep an eye on this one.
     





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