11 months vs 10 months vs 9 months etc…

[BabyYoda]

Hey everyone,

I’ve been listening to a lot of DVC podcasts and reading as much as I can but can’t quite figure out the answer to this question, if there even is an answer to be had!

It’s clear that having the ability to book your home resort at 11 months out is a huge perk, especially at popular resorts like VGF. My question is, at what point between the 7 month and 11 month mark does this value start to diminish? Aka, are the really popular resorts filling up at 11 months out on the dot, or is it still reasonable to expect to be able to book a room at 10 months, 9 months, and 8 months? I’m sure this depends on a lot of factors like room type and time of year but was just wondering!

I don’t think my fiancé and I will ever book a trip 11 months out, but would maybe book 7-8 months out, so is there still value in buying a place like VGF or CCV (which we love) or should we just go for the most economical resort and hope for the best and be flexible on where we stay?

Thanks!

- David & Andrea

 

[JKitch]

There's a post in the DVC Member Services board that has historical data around availability it is called Predicted DVC booking patterns - Studios, 1-BD & 2-BD charts (September 2019 2-BD added!)

Sorry I would have linked but the board wouldn't let me. I think that post would help answer a lot of your questions though.

 

[chalee94]

Here is the link from pre-Pandemic times - it depends on the time of year and the type of villa. If you are planning to go during Fall Frenzy and want a studio, plan to book early - 11 months might not even be early enough...

Predicted DVC booking patterns - Studios, 1-BD & 2-BD charts (September 2019 2-BD added!) | The DIS Disney Discussion Forums - DISboards.com

 

[CarolMN]

Sorry I would have linked but the board wouldn't let me. I think that post would help answer a lot of your questions though.

You need to have at least 10 posts to post a link. Right now (11/4/21 at 9:20 am Eastern), you only have 5.

I see you are new to our Community. Welcome!

 

[CaptainAmerica]

Aka, are the really popular resorts filling up at 11 months out on the dot, or is it still reasonable to expect to be able to book a room at 10 months, 9 months, and 8 months?

It's not so much "really popular resorts" so much as "really popular room types." Animal Kingdom Villas is probably the property that illustrates this effect the most clearly.

If you want a Value or Club level room, you better be on the button at 11 months on the dot, and even then, you'll be competing with walkers.

If you want a Standard View Studio in Jambo House, you'll want to book before 7 months but probably don't need to book right at 11.

If you want a Savanna View 1-bedroom, you're probably fine buying Saratoga Springs points and booking within 7 months.

 

[Stargazer65]

As others have said it depends on what you like, or at least what you could be satisfied with. I'm generally happy with buying economical SAPs because I'm not looking to get high demand rooms, and we can book what we want anytime between 7 and 11 months typically. Occasionally we go for a high demand time of year, and book at 11 months, but then we are usually fine with the rooms that are easier to get.

 

[JKitch]

You need to have at least 10 posts to post a link. Right now (11/4/21 at 9:20 am Eastern), you only have 5.

I see you are new to our Community. Welcome!

Long time lurker just started posting. I figured it had to do with my post count. Thanks!

 

[_auroraborealis_]

And it's worth mentioning that the first two weeks of December and some runDisney weekends have traditionally been fast to book, even in "less popular" unit types.

Don't snooze on first week of December even if you're an owner at Poly and want Standard is all imma saying.

 

[crisi]

Depends on the room type, the resort, and the season. For BWV during Food and Wine in a Standard View studio - its pre-eleven months due to walking. For SSR in a one bedroom in February, its probably something like two months out. DVC is designed to run at 100% occupancy (for practical purposes), it really is just a matter of how fast that happens.

For most resorts and most room types at most times of the year, there will be availability almost right up to the seven month window - once that opens, for some resorts (like VGF) any remaining availability may book immediately at that point as non home members jump on those rooms.

In 20 years of BWV ownership I've called day by day once (back when you would call day by day instead of walking) to get two Boardwalk View two bedrooms during August. I've seldom called right at eleven months and never not gotten what I wanted. But I don't plan on standard view over Food and Wine - and we haven't traveled in the last quarter in ten years.

DVC does work best for planners and those that are flexible. Over time, if you want, you are likely to be able to stay at each DVC resort - if you are flexible - i.e. maybe you'll never get BCV or BWV over Food and Wine in a studio, but sometime a one bedroom will be available at six months out in February.

 

[DonMacGregor]

For SSR in a one bedroom in February, its probably something like two months out.

I was actually looking at possibly adding a studio to our trip in February at SSR for some family friends, and availability is pretty slim right now. One night available in a Treehouse, a 2-bedroom preferred or a grand villa. Everything else is waitlisted.

 

[CarolMN]

I was actually looking at possibly adding a studio to our trip in February at SSR for some family friends, and availability is pretty slim right now. One night available in a Treehouse, a 2-bedroom preferred or a grand villa. Everything else is waitlisted.

You are experiencing the "COVID Closure" (aka "point glut") effect. That's probably a temporary thing. @crisi is talking about historical patterns.

 

[RaymOOOnd]

So far I've found my home resort designations to matter very little. Our last several trips including PVB, VGF, CCV and BCV were all booked with other points (AKV, BLT) right at the 7 month mark.

Would really be hard pressed to consider buying something as expensive as VGF after having the experience of staying there on points I'd bought for $69pp some years ago. I imagine that this is irritating to direct owners of the resort and feels to others like a great deal (as it has for me).

After doing this for something like 6-7 years I think I've formally used the home resort advantage maybe 2-3 times. It is most important if you need a studio for some non-negotiable stretch of time at a small resort, and if you don't think planning a domestic vacation 11 months ahead of time is weird (I sort of do)

 

[crisi]

So far I've found my home resort designations to matter very little. Our last several trips including PVB, VGF, CCV and BCV were all booked with other points (AKV, BLT) right at the 7 month mark.

Would really be hard pressed to consider buying something as expensive as VGF after having the experience of staying there on points I'd bought for $69pp some years ago. I imagine that this is irritating to direct owners of the resort and feels to others like a great deal (as it has for me).

After doing this for something like 6-7 years I think I've formally used the home resort advantage maybe 2-3 times. It is most important if you need a studio for some non-negotiable stretch of time at a small resort, and if you don't think planning a domestic vacation 11 months ahead of time is weird (I sort of do)

A few questions - what room type and time of year were you booking? Did you have to compromise - did you get your first choice resort for exactly the dates you wanted? Were you logging in first thing in the morning, or did you want until noon? More data is helpful when helping make generalizations,. We know for instance that if you are willing to book one bedrooms, a whole world of seven month availability opens - but you spend a lot more points over a studio. And that traveling in the first three quarters is different than traveling in the last.

 

[RaymOOOnd]

We have stayed by booking at 7 months in: a studio at VGF (twice, once in the Fall and another in the Spring), a 2 bedroom at CCV in January, a 1 bedroom at BCV in June, a studio at BWV in April, a studio at PVB in January, a 1 bedroom at Riv in April.

If there's a takeaway it could be that some of these were easy-to-get larger accommodations rather than studios, that none were at an Epcot resort during food and wine, that none were during Christmas celebrations etc. Our Fall trips we've typically used our 11 month advantage at BLT. The AKV points would be almost a regret if we hadn't gotten them so cheaply, since we've truly never needed the booking advantage except for one concierge stay (which we did not think was worth the extra points in the end)

 

[crisi]

Thanks. I like context.

We've had no problems using our BWV points (granted this is over 20 years - so take 'things change' into account) for a two bedroom at VWL (BRV) in August (probably fifteen years ago), a two bedroom at BCV in August (ten years ago), a two bedroom at VAKL at Kidani in March (not over Easter) and have been getting one bedrooms at HHI in January lately - this year we had no issues with an Ocean View one bedroom at Aulani for January. But none of this is high season for any of those resorts - and its all one and two bedrooms. The difficult resorts there are HHI in the Summer (and January is NOT Summer) and BCV - but we did that a long time ago in late August. For all of those trips we got our first choice (except I would have preferred Jambo - it wasn't available) and I didn't get up at crack-o-dawn, but did make the reservations at exactly seven months.

 

[DonMacGregor]

You are experiencing the "COVID Closure" (aka "point glut") effect. That's probably a temporary thing. @crisi is talking about historical patterns.

No, I get that and that was kinda my point. Right now, you can't really rely on historical patterns when even the most reliably available resort is showing little availability in February.