100,000 DVC members = no availability : when?

[Glorydaz]

The big change as membership increases, will be the demand at the 7-month window for non-home resorts. That's where total membership will have a big impact. And that's why owning at a home resort becomes more and more important.

truer words never spoken, Caskbill lots of interesting idea's here ...and I'm still amazed at how fiercely owners defend their "home resort"..to a point of defiance at times!

bottom line, none of us really knows the impact...I do know I'm glad to be a part of DVC, I'm glad to own at SSR and I'm looking forward to the addition of the next property to open....further my horizons, so to speak.. in the meantime, I'm just going to book at my 8-11 month window..there's always other resources for an impromtu visit.

 

[Alexander]

I guess this is all lost on me, as we are happy to stay anywhere in WDW!

We own SSR and the only place we haven't been is BWV. I can't say I like any of the resorts better or less than the others. They all have certain things I like better and certain things I like less than the others. We just pick a resort and if it's not available, we take whatever is. However, there has only been one time when we couldn't get our first choice and didn't want to waitlist, so we took a villa at another.

We don't travel at those prized times however, we tend to always have our vacations during the premium point times (Pres. Week, Easter, Summer). So I'm guessing this buy where you want to stay, frustration with SSR owners who don't want to stay at SSR, seems to not be an issue for us.

 

[tmt martins]

Obviously it doesn't matter how many new resorts are built or how many members there are. The 11-month Home Resort booking window does not change and the number of owners at a home resort does not change. So those owners will not see any more competition for rooms during peak times than they see right now. The total number of members is irrelevant.

For example, to keep it simple, let's say there's a resort with 100 units, and each owner bought enough points for 1 week. That would mean there are 5200 home resort owners. Thus only those 5200 owners can book at the 8-11 month window. That is a constant number, regardless of how many other owners there are at other resorts..

ITA in princible but when things get real bad people will get creative .You could have people trading for those 100 units from the 100,000 pool of members even at a premium.

Lets say X-mas week 100 units 1st you have to worry about the 5200 tring to tie them up .Then lets say I will trade my prime BW sv 2bdrm (say 300 points ) at X-mas for 400 points at another location or time frame.

This is when the booking day X day will become a necessitiy and crazy.So total membership really does effect all bookings .

 

[iankh]

When I started relooking at DVC just about 1 year ago, I had considered SSR. Then I found these boards.

I finally bought at VWL, based on advice I received here and the prospect that with VWL being the smallest resort, the prospects of being able to book it might get harder as the overall number of owners grew and more larger resorts were added.

I've not been sorry with that decision and was happy when I was able to book our December trip at the 11 month mark.

I recently added on at BWV for the very same reason. To be able to leverage the 11 month window if I so choose at an Epcot area resort.

I think it was pretty good advice that I received here.

 

[shantay1008]

Boy, you lost me on that one. Who is it that's going to be disappointed?

I think she means that if you buy at SSR but really want to stay at BCV or BWV, there's a chance you may end up disappointed someday when you can't get a room at either place.

 

[crisi]

ITA in princible but when things get real bad people will get creative .You could have people trading for those 100 units from the 100,000 pool of members even at a premium.

Lets say X-mas week 100 units 1st you have to worry about the 5200 tring to tie them up .Then lets say I will trade my prime BW sv 2bdrm (say 300 points ) at X-mas for 400 points at another location or time frame.

This is when the booking day X day will become a necessitiy and crazy.So total membership really does effect all bookings .

That may force DVC to track where points come from in a transfer, but if they do that (which they are supposed to do, the system just seems to lose it), it still won't change things. Because home resort points will be home resort points. It will simply be one of Caskbill's 5200 members trading their points to someone else. Also, if people start getting creative, people will start charging for that creativity. I'm not going to be letting my BWV points trade out for SSR, OKW or BCV points on a one to one basis - I think my SV access is worth a lot more than that. (I would consider an even trade for VWL points).

Day by day bookings will change - for GV and BWV Standard View rooms especially - as people learn the system and work it. But the total number of people trying between 8-11 months won't change.

 

[tmt martins]

That may force DVC to track where points come from in a transfer, but if they do that (which they are supposed to do, the system just seems to lose it), it still won't change things. Because home resort points will be home resort points. It will simply be one of Caskbill's 5200 members trading their points to someone else. Also, if people start getting creative, people will start charging for that creativity. I'm not going to be letting my BWV points trade out for SSR, OKW or BCV points on a one to one basis - I think my SV access is worth a lot more than that. (I would consider an even trade for VWL points).

Day by day bookings will change - for GV and BWV Standard View rooms especially - as people learn the system and work it. But the total number of people trying between 8-11 months won't change.

Thats what I was sayiong only that if 1% of the 5200 looking at 100 units not that bad 52 units with 48 left .

But now do to creativity others trading into those 5200 it increases to just 5% now your looking at 260 units needed .Thats when you will start to have problems .

I also stated that your 300 point of prime would get you 400 points in return so that would be a nice incentive for you to book prime time and add to the 5% looking just because they want to be there at that time.

Don't get me wrong I think DVC is just what they advertise if people really look into ( buy where you want to stay ) I just for 1 don't really care just want a nice pillow to lay my head on.I would like to try all the resorts and do Add ons for my smaller trips as money becomes avail.

 

[Beca]

Obviously it doesn't matter how many new resorts are built or how many members there are. The 11-month Home Resort booking window does not change and the number of owners at a home resort does not change. So those owners will not see any more competition for rooms during peak times than they see right now. The total number of members is irrelevant.

For example, to keep it simple, let's say there's a resort with 100 units, and each owner bought enough points for 1 week. That would mean there are 5200 home resort owners. Thus only those 5200 owners can book at the 8-11 month window. That is a constant number, regardless of how many other owners there are at other resorts.

However at 7-months, of the total 100,000 members, the other 94,800 members can now book that resort. And in 10 years if membership grows to 150,000, then at 8-11 months it's still only the same 5200 members that can book their resort. But at 7-months, the remaining 144,800 members can try for that resort.

The big change as membership increases, will be the demand at the 7-month window for non-home resorts. That's where total membership will have a big impact. And that's why owning at a home resort becomes more and more important.

Booking your home resort during the 8-11 window will become more and more important, especially for those who own at the smaller, or more popular, resorts. If a member waits until 7-months or less to book their home resort, they may find themselves locked out of getting what they want.

But what this does not take into account is the changing demographic of owners at the small resorts. If every person who owned at BCV/VWL were people who bought "becuase that's what DVC was selling at the time", we certainly would not be seeing an increase in difficulty of booking at your home resort. However, I know that in just the 2 1/2 short years that I have been a DVC member, what I have seen happening is a significant number of people who LOVE BCV/VWL buying in for the first time there, instead of "where DVC is selling at the time", and paying premium $$$ for it. I think the sheer number of people who have done this since I have joined has made a difference in the 8-11 month availability. 5200 people is 5200 people. However, 5200 "I paid more than what DVC is selling SSR for because I love BCV/VWL and plan to stay there as much as possible" people, are very different (in terms of resort availability) from "I bought BCV/VWL because it was what DVC was selling at the time. I like it, but I really like ALL resorts." Basically, the "BCV addicts" (like me....but, there are MANY of us...I get lots of pm's and emails from others), most who purchased resale, are changing the demographics of BCV.

And, I haven't even mentioned the "rental" market, and how that is skewing bookings. It is certainly happening at ALL resorts, but when a resort is smaller, the rental market will have a much more noticeable effect on the smaller resorts (15 rooms rented for the same day at SSR...not noticeable, 15 rooms rented for the same day at BCV...well, that's a good chunk of the number of rooms that become available over any given day).



Beca

 

[Caskbill]

But what this does not take into account is the changing demographic of owners at the small resorts. If every person who owned at BCV/VWL were people who bought "becuase that's what DVC was selling at the time", we certainly would not be seeing an increase in difficulty of booking at your home resort. However, I know that in just the 2 1/2 short years that I have been a DVC member, what I have seen happening is a significant number of people who LOVE BCV/VWL buying in for the first time there, instead of "where DVC is selling at the time", and paying premium $$$ for it. I think the sheer number of people who have done this since I have joined has made a difference in the 8-11 month availability. 5200 people is 5200 people. However, 5200 "I paid more than what DVC is selling SSR for because I love BCV/VWL and plan to stay there as much as possible" people, are very different (in terms of resort availability) from "I bought BCV/VWL because it was what DVC was selling at the time. I like it, but I really like ALL resorts." Basically, the "BCV addicts" (like me....but, there are MANY of us...I get lots of pm's and emails from others), most who purchased resale, are changing the demographics of BCV.

And, I haven't even mentioned the "rental" market, and how that is skewing bookings. It is certainly happening at ALL resorts, but when a resort is smaller, the rental market will have a much more noticeable effect on the smaller resorts (15 rooms rented for the same day at SSR...not noticeable, 15 rooms rented for the same day at BCV...well, that's a good chunk of the number of rooms that become available over any given day).



Beca

Those are excellent points Beca and you're correct. The demographics are probably changing the demand for certain resorts during the 8-11 month window. I concur. Theoretically if half of the 5200 originally bought because it was being sold at the time, then the 'demand' during the 8-11 month window was by 2600 owners. Now if the 5200 eventually became owners who never wanted to stay anywhere else but their home resort, the 'demand' would double from 2600 to 5200. Also, the 7-month non-home window availability would probably dwindle to a trickle.

 

[Maistre Gracey]

Those are excellent points Beca and you're correct. The demographics are probably changing the demand for certain resorts during the 8-11 month window. I concur. Theoretically if half of the 5200 originally bought because it was being sold at the time, then the 'demand' during the 8-11 month window was by 2600 owners. Now if the 5200 eventually became owners who never wanted to stay anywhere else but their home resort, the 'demand' would double from 2600 to 5200. Also, the 7-month non-home window availability would probably dwindle to a trickle.

This assumes that the original demographic did not book their home resort in the first place, with the intention of switching at 7 months.

MG

 

[chloe]

I agree with Beca, booking patterns will change..

I know, I, for one, have changed my booking behavior in the last few years. Two years ago I was lax in setting up my reservation at the 11 month window. Not any more. I now make my reservations as soon as possible … and hope they don’t change!

 

[Horace Horsecollar]

Two years ago I was lax in setting up my reservation at the 11 month window. Not any more. I now make my reservations as soon as possible … and hope they don’t change!

I think that's exactly why some dates are now booking up sooner.

Once somebody has been "burned" — unable to get the dates they want at their home resort — that person is likely to call as soon as possible in future years.

The total number of members has nothing to do with it. Disney cannot legally sell more than the total capacity of a DVC resort. But there's no guarantee that every member can get any particular dates.

 

[JonJ]

Another angle on the 5200 members that Caskbill used in his example -- some people may be buying fewer points as add-ons and using banking/borrowing to get the "100 point" weeks. For example, if 3000 of the owners are 100 pt and the remaining 4400 owners are 50 pt, then you could conceivably have 3000 + 4400 = 7400 owners trying for a "week" during one of the peak times. While this would average out over a two or three year period, the larger number of possible users could make getting a particular night or week very hard. We may be seeing this happening on the peak days or weeks which people spoke about in their posts about the difficulty of getting rooms at the 7 to 11 month window. The nice thing is that if this is true, there may be years when it is far easier to get reservations at the 7 to 11 month time period . So, I wonder how many distinct owners are there at each resort? Are they counting the number of owners as two if the contract is owned by two people or is the contract counting as one "owner?" If a person owns multiple contracts at one resort, is that person counted multiple times (probably not)?

 

[Dean]

A previous post (bobbiwoz) got me to thinking. Are there truly 100,000 members or are there 100,000 contracts sold? We own two, and there are many who own more. Is that the 100,000 number.

--OR--

Could 100,000 members mean every person who holds a blue membership card? In my family, there are two of us who are technically members, but we wouldn't be taking up two rooms at the same time.

Does anyone know the meaning of 100,000 members?

There were 85,017 fully paid MEMBERS on 31 Dec, 2004 so that number sounds reasonable.

 

[DrTomorrow]

[inspired by Beca]

SSR Owners

Who love SSR

Are the happiest DVCers

In the World.

 

[Beca]

[inspired by Beca]

SSR Owners

Who love SSR

Are the happiest DVCers

In the World.

Woohoo!!! That's the spirit!!!

(And, the best feeling in the world!! )



Beca

 

[sarhenty]

I think that's exactly why some dates are now booking up sooner.

Once somebody has been "burned" — unable to get the dates they want at their home resort — that person is likely to call as soon as possible in future years.

The total number of members has nothing to do with it. Disney cannot legally sell more than the total capacity of a DVC resort. But there's no guarantee that every member can get any particular dates.

I couldn't agree more. You better believe that we book our dates as soon as our 11 month mark comes up. We own at VWL and will be VERY happy staying there but we usually switch at the 7 month mark to BCV. If ever in the future it becomes difficult for us to stay there (BCV) based on availability, well we would consider doing an even exchange to someone for our points at VWL. If that doesn't work, well, we'll be perfectly happy at VWL.

 

[Disney Doll]

I guess this is all lost on me, as we are happy to stay anywhere in WDW!

We own SSR and the only place we haven't been is BWV. I can't say I like any of the resorts better or less than the others. They all have certain things I like better and certain things I like less than the others. We just pick a resort and if it's not available, we take whatever is. However, there has only been one time when we couldn't get our first choice and didn't want to waitlist, so we took a villa at another.

We don't travel at those prized times however, we tend to always have our vacations during the premium point times (Pres. Week, Easter, Summer). So I'm guessing this buy where you want to stay, frustration with SSR owners who don't want to stay at SSR, seems to not be an issue for us.

Other than vacationing at peak times, you could be me. I am happy to be anywhere in WDW!!!!!!!!!!

 

[kimberh]

I am getting ready to close on VWL hopefully in the next few days. My question is, what do you mean by the day to day booking of the ressie? Do you say that you are checking out on the next day and then call again to book another day? I don't have any literature yet so I hope this isn't a dumb question. Then if you have a 11 month ressie and you try to get a 7 month at another resort do you have to have points for both at the same time or when the ressie comes through? The contract I bought has 100 points that have to be used before Oct 06, so when I get my member number what happens if I can't find a vacancy? I hope I haven't asked to many questions but I really am in the dark on this.

 

[vanstoj]

Beca, this is true. I just tried to book a studio for sun -thursday the first week of december and nothing was available until the 8th. We did get a studio for the 10,11, and 12th. It does appear that the first week in December is definitely becoming 11 months out or nothing. This will also probably be true soon of Food and wine, thanksgiving and Christmas.