Time to Restructure Crowd Calendars?

[Mac30188]

But is there any real evidence of that happening on a regular basis? I'm not arguing, but there are a LOT of things that are presented and assumed to be true on this board that may not be.

Reduced staffing does not by definition mean reduced capacity. It might, but it's not necessarily a direct connection.

I find it difficult to believe WDW limits capacity in all but rare empty times, so while I know this is one of the things that gets said a lot, I'm not sure it's as frequent as is stated here. B

Here is a great article that helps illustrate when Disney misses the mark on crowd expectations.

http://www.easywdw.com/easy/blog/ma...vice-menu-joy-where-does-the-line-start-4616/

 

[xipotec]

Actually posted a similar post several weeks ago. I believe the unbalancing in parks is a big factor, but a huge root cause is Disney's new capacity model. The length of lines is no longer determined by the crowd in the park, but the crowd versus expectations. Disney is going to staff based on expectations, and they do not appear to be nimble enough to make adjustments in time to prevent horrible lines if they are wrong.

For example, if Disney expects a crowd level of 8 and fully staffs park and gets a crowd day of 6, it will feel very light.
If Disney expects a crowd level of 2 and staffs the park at that level and gets a crowd level of 6, it will be overwhelmed and lines will be very bad. Same number of people but massively different feel for the guest.

The new model, IMHO, is if you go on an expected crowded day, you could get better than expected waits, but not worse. If you go on an expected light day, you could get decent lines, but you are risking getting horrible lines. There are some items that cannot have capacity adjusted such as walking paths, parades, and fireworks. If you go on a busy day, these items will be packed no matter Disney Staffing levels.

Therefore the risk reward is the lighter expected crowd, the more likely you will have easier time walking between rides, getting food, spots for parade and fireworks, however you are risking the chance that you will have very, very, very long lines for capacity adjusted attractions. The lighter the expected day, the longer a wait time you could face (in poker terms, the more chips on the table). On the other hand, if you go on a busy day, you could in theory actually have very short lines, but more than likely you will face crowds everywhere (food, parade, fireworks, walkways, etc.). The new ideal time, short term, may be an expected crowd day of 7. It is expected to be crowded enough that Disney will staff it to a high level, however it will not have unbearable crowds. You also could get lucky and have a lighter than expected day and the high staff will make lines very short.

I would say the best way to use current crowd calendars is picking the correct park and a good touring plan. Disney will always be crowded. Knowing that MK will be busy tonight because it is the only night this week they show Wishes is a much more valuable piece of information than choosing a day with a crowd level of 4 over a crowd level of 7.

Finally, long term the crowd calendars will re-calibrate to the new Disney model and fix themselves. They just need the data to make the adjustment and Disney has changed so many variable so quickly it is impossible to build an accurate model. Once this data comes in, the better crowd calendars will be spot on again.

How would Disney not know the crows levels...I am sure they have the ability the know how many people are buying tickets... how many were sold and how much of the resorts have been filled.....

If they are short staffing its not because they do not know....its cause they do not care and are setting levels to save money.

 

[Mac30188]

How would Disney not know the crows levels...I am sure they have the ability the know how many people are buying tickets... how many were sold and how much of the resorts have been filled.....

If they are short staffing its not because they do not know....its cause they do not care and are setting levels to save money.

I would assume the problem is tickets are not slotted when they are purchased plus you have annual pass holders (as opposed to a movie theater that sells a very specific number of tickets to a very specific show). Add park hoppers and weather into the equation and they are reduced to educated guessing. Now as you point outthey can base their guess on the factors of historical attendance, resort bookings, fastpass bookings, etc. I am sure there models are better than anything on the market, however at the end of the day there is nothing that can prevent an influx of people who just happen to decide that the weather looks great and this seems like a great time to go to Magic Kingdom.

The point you make is valid in Disney should hit the mark more times than not on their guess, however when they are wrong on the low side, the guests suffer a rude surprise once they get to the park. I would assume the money they save in their capacity flux model is significant enough offset a small number of "less then magical" days for guests.

 

[ConnecticutNonna]

I was worried about that as well. I booked in beginning of March-had to extend my stay to get the room I wanted (tpv at CR). My TA was told that 'we got the last one'. And a few days later- sure enough no availability on ANY rooms. (OK the 1 bedroom garden wing were available, but I don't count those ) I was trying to drop my stay back down to my original dates..now I'm at peace with spending an extra day in WDW though
HOWEVER- now if you log in for those dates- rooms ARE available. I'm thinking people changed after it was exclude from the promotions. Could be wrong though..

No, I think you're absolutely correct.
Over on the Caribbean Beach Bum roll call there's a lot of folks switching resorts for free dining.