Time to Restructure Crowd Calendars?

[lovethattink]

I keep hearing this here. This wasn't our experience in Apr at all. Is this just one of those popular DIS assumptions based on news of cuts?

That wasn't our experience over the Darkside Challenge weekend either. But April 22 and last Monday were crazy crowded!!!

 

[snayak]

Ah. Got it. Largely (if not all) anecdotal, and FAR too many variables to draw conclusions in any real way.

Not that this is the appropriate bar for a discussion forum (!!), but if I had posited this cause/effect, and put this "evidence" forth in business school or in the workplace to support it, I would not have fared well.

Oh, goodness. These things are not at all comparable. And FWIW, eyewitness testimony is notoriously faulty, btw!

It's just a mathematical/statistical fact that one cannot draw conclusions from extremely unscientific, non-random (self-selected DISboards users), statistically insignificant sample sizes (too small); nor without controlling for the myriad variables at play here. I just can't argue this fact with anyone.

I'll excuse myself from the anecdotal stuff for today. #unwatch

I think we are in agreement but I'll just list my thoughts:

• People are noticing portions of operational rides are closed (e.g., not necessarily mechanical issues)
• Wait times are high for this time of year (based on scraping ride times every 5 minutes or however TP and EasyWdw get their data)
• Lines are longer - see pictures posted by various sites
• People generally complain more often & louder than they praise
• Crowd calendars rely on historical data for prediction, but this year has too many variables to accurately forecast
• We can't determine actual root cause (but speculating is fun!)

I'm with you - we don't have a statistical sample size to scientifically create a trend, but until we gather the data (which takes both time and consistency - nobody can state Disney won't run at full capacity starting tomorrow) I'm thinking where there's smoke, there's fire (or, these hoofprints are horses not zebras). Then again, most call me a cynic.

 

[Iluvshoes531]

I have been to Disney numerous times and I am planning a trip this June. Last year we were there in July. Even with the tour groups we were able to fit everything in we wanted and be out of the park by 2pm for naps. I do use the crowd calendars and also make sure we are always there for Rope Drop. My DH hates it but always thanks me when we are leaving the park for a nap and he sees the lines out of control. If you arrive at rope drop and start your first fast pass+ window early enough... you should do just fine. We also always stay for at least 6 days to so we can do 2 MK days and split the park in half between the days. I agree that a Disney trips takes a ton of planning but to see the smiles on my kids faces......totally worth every minute I put in it. I have also found these boards to be super helpful and a great Disney support system

 

[CuseWazowski]

We were there last week and the crowds were a bit heavier than expected. Where I noticed it was that wait times seemed to get longer earlier. Since we were at the parks for opening each day and planned our meals and FPs, our plans were minimally impacted. From 9:00-9:45, most rides were walk-on or very short waits and times would start to grow by 10:00. So we started waiting in 10 minute lines because we had FPd or had already done the headliners. We didn't feel robbed of any experiences or that our trip was hampered by crowds at all.

Our philosophy is that we will expect it to be crowded and do our best to plan around it. We had a wonderful time!

 

[cel_disney]

We were there last week and the crowds were a bit heavier than expected. Where I noticed it was that wait times seemed to get longer earlier. Since we were at the parks for opening each day and planned our meals and FPs, our plans were minimally impacted. From 9:00-9:45, most rides were walk-on or very short waits and times would start to grow by 10:00. So we started waiting in 10 minute lines because we had FPd or had already done the headliners. We didn't feel robbed of any experiences or that our trip was hampered by crowds at all.

Our philosophy is that we will expect it to be crowded and do our best to plan around it. We had a wonderful time!

One thing we also noticed in the first hour was that posted wait times were definitely on the high side compared to what we waited in line. Space was posted at a 25 minute wait when it was more like 10 minutes (both sides open and we walked all the way up to the sorting room without stopping!). It was 9:15 and my family was just 'ugh' when they saw the posted wait time and I had to tell them to not be chickens about standing in a dredded line - as that seemed way to high for TP predictions and our many personal past experiences with this touring plan approach (space mountain in the first 30 min of park opening).

 

[mickeyluv'r]

One thing we also noticed in the first hour was that posted wait times were definitely on the high side compared to what we waited in line. Space was posted at a 25 minute wait when it was more like 10 minutes (both sides open and we walked all the way up to the sorting room without stopping!).

This is not new. It has been true for years.

Actually, I find it oddly comforting to know it is STILL happening.

It is also part of why I'm so very skeptical of those who make money off the crowd prediction scam.

In short, there's always a ready line of excuses for why their predictions aren't accurate.

Or rather, they say the opposite.

 

[Eastern]

I don't think we need crowd calendars anymore. Just figure that the parks will be 9-10 every day unless it is a torrential downpour.

 

[cel_disney]

This is not new. It has been true for years.

Actually, I find it oddly comforting to know it is STILL happening.

It is also part of why I'm so very skeptical of those who make money off the crowd prediction scam.

In short, there's always a ready line of excuses for why their predictions aren't accurate.

Or rather, they say the opposite.

Not sure you interpreted this as I intended - First- in my case, my paid subscription to Touring Plans made me willing to go on the ride because I could see it was likely inflated. We have been to Disney many times (and several with FP+ as well) but we felt that the times were all slightly more inflated that we were used too seeing so quickly.

 

[tlmadden73]

For me the crowd calendars are a just a guess.

The only way to accurately predict crowds is to use data that I don't think these sites have:
1) Number of rooms being used within the resort
2) Number of Fast Passes reserved for a given day
3) Groups that are coming down (dance competitions .. etc. etc.)

Plus right now most people only consider MK worth going to .. so that park is probably more crowded than it will be once the new 'lands' open up.

Plus .. I feel that these crowd calendars just make it worse. If a crowd calendar says that September is "empty" and july is "crowded" .. eventually MORE AND MORE people will go in SEPT than JULY. Between these crowd calendars, advice from travel agents and just word of mouth, families are choosing to go to WDW in the "low crowd" times .. which make those time MORE crowded.

So what we are seeing is people adjusting to the crowds and adjusting to the prices and promotions and events that Disney pushes to make it crowded all year long.

So the day-to-day crowd calendars? Just a gamble .. I haven't put any faith in them and just have picked my trip times on when it was convenient for my family and when prices were good. (I went last August (26-30) because of a promotion, and it was my son's birthday. Sure .. it was hot and rainy (as expected) but crowds were lower then they were in early October of 2014.

 

[mickeyluv'r]

Not sure you interpreted this as I intended - First- in my case, my paid subscription to Touring Plans made me willing to go on the ride because I could see it was likely inflated. We have been to Disney many times (and several with FP+ as well) but we felt that the times were all slightly more inflated that we were used too seeing so quickly.

I was kind of saying multiple things mashed up in one post. Sorry for any confusion.


I started dodging WDW crowds decades before CC's existed. It is second nature to us.


I'm sorry you paid for bad information.

 

[xipotec]

I think common sense tell you alot....

EMH days are busier.
Special Event days are busier.
Holidays are busier,
Weekends are busier.
looking at room availability is a sure sign of how busy your stay will be...

 

[mickeyluv'r]

Except, to piggy back on TLMADDEN's post, that it actually IS fairly easy to get a sense of #1 and #2 right form Disney's own website.

Shortly before you visit WDW, do a quick scan of the available room inventory (if you care). In short, the more rooms are available, the lower the crowds. There are a few exceptions: free dining and major holidays.
Free dining = onsite rooms full, but offsite is empty.
Holidays = offsite full regardless of onsite availability.

It is also a bit tricky to predict - far in advance- what local FL residents will do.

 

[mickeyluv'r]

Let me put it this way...years ago, we traveled -non-WDW- using a very popular travel guide. Before we went, I thought I was being smart. Some of the touring information was great- like museum hours and where to buy train tickets.

But the suggested restaurant and hotel information was horrible! Many of the places in the guide were tiny, family-run places. Did they paid for their endorsement?

The places listed clearly profited from their endorsements! The guests in each were almost all tourists carrying said guide book! Prices were clearly inflated, and service was sub-standard.

We quickly improved our vacation by AVOIDING the places listed in the guide book!

WDW and touring advice is much the same.

 

[whiporee]

Reports in business journals and Cast Members who post here that staffing has been cut a lot throughout the resort. Sometimes this has resulted in running only one platform or track of a ride that has 2 tracks available.. So a day that has fewer people in the park still has long lines because they're only running half the ride.

But is there any real evidence of that happening on a regular basis? I'm not arguing, but there are a LOT of things that are presented and assumed to be true on this board that may not be.

Reduced staffing does not by definition mean reduced capacity. It might, but it's not necessarily a direct connection.

I find it difficult to believe WDW limits capacity in all but rare empty times, so while I know this is one of the things that gets said a lot, I'm not sure it's as frequent as is stated here. B

 

[Mac30188]

Actually posted a similar post several weeks ago. I believe the unbalancing in parks is a big factor, but a huge root cause is Disney's new capacity model. The length of lines is no longer determined by the crowd in the park, but the crowd versus expectations. Disney is going to staff based on expectations, and they do not appear to be nimble enough to make adjustments in time to prevent horrible lines if they are wrong.

For example, if Disney expects a crowd level of 8 and fully staffs park and gets a crowd day of 6, it will feel very light.
If Disney expects a crowd level of 2 and staffs the park at that level and gets a crowd level of 6, it will be overwhelmed and lines will be very bad. Same number of people but massively different feel for the guest.

The new model, IMHO, is if you go on an expected crowded day, you could get better than expected waits, but not worse. If you go on an expected light day, you could get decent lines, but you are risking getting horrible lines. There are some items that cannot have capacity adjusted such as walking paths, parades, and fireworks. If you go on a busy day, these items will be packed no matter Disney Staffing levels.

Therefore the risk reward is the lighter expected crowd, the more likely you will have easier time walking between rides, getting food, spots for parade and fireworks, however you are risking the chance that you will have very, very, very long lines for capacity adjusted attractions. The lighter the expected day, the longer a wait time you could face (in poker terms, the more chips on the table). On the other hand, if you go on a busy day, you could in theory actually have very short lines, but more than likely you will face crowds everywhere (food, parade, fireworks, walkways, etc.). The new ideal time, short term, may be an expected crowd day of 7. It is expected to be crowded enough that Disney will staff it to a high level, however it will not have unbearable crowds. You also could get lucky and have a lighter than expected day and the high staff will make lines very short.

I would say the best way to use current crowd calendars is picking the correct park and a good touring plan. Disney will always be crowded. Knowing that MK will be busy tonight because it is the only night this week they show Wishes is a much more valuable piece of information than choosing a day with a crowd level of 4 over a crowd level of 7.

Finally, long term the crowd calendars will re-calibrate to the new Disney model and fix themselves. They just need the data to make the adjustment and Disney has changed so many variable so quickly it is impossible to build an accurate model. Once this data comes in, the better crowd calendars will be spot on again.

 

[cel_disney]

I was kind of saying multiple things mashed up in one post. Sorry for any confusion.


I started dodging WDW crowds decades before CC's existed. It is second nature to us.


I'm sorry you paid for bad information.

Again - the crowd calendar and touring plans worked for me. Not sure why you keep saying it didn't?

 

[JulieNMM]

Speaking of all the parks being crowded, do you think that the new Harry Potter parks opening will affect the crowd levels at the Disney parks? We are going to WDW in July and planning to stay 6 nights, then go to each WDW park one day and to each US park one day. I am assuming that every park will be a 10. But might WDW be less crowded because some people are heading to US instead?

 

[Mac30188]

Speaking of all the parks being crowded, do you think that the new Harry Potter parks opening will affect the crowd levels at the Disney parks? We are going to WDW in July and planning to stay 6 nights, then go to each WDW park one day and to each US park one day. I am assuming that every park will be a 10. But might WDW be less crowded because some people are heading to US instead?

I believe it is the opposite. Harry Potter will bring more guests to Orlando. Some of those guests will visit both WDW and US. Therefore Harry Potter drives up Disney World attendance.

 

[Mikie]

But is there any real evidence of that happening on a regular basis? I'm not arguing, but there are a LOT of things that are presented and assumed to be true on this board that may not be.

Reduced staffing does not by definition mean reduced capacity. It might, but it's not necessarily a direct connection.

I find it difficult to believe WDW limits capacity in all but rare empty times, so while I know this is one of the things that gets said a lot, I'm not sure it's as frequent as is stated here. B

"Real evidence" I can only say is people on this board stating that they rode a ride and saw with their own eyes that only one side was operating. "Regular basis" meaning regularly, as a matter of business practice, noticeable to the guests experience, I agree we don't know for sure.

 

[JimmyV]

I believe it is the opposite. Harry Potter will bring more guests to Orlando. Some of those guests will visit both WDW and US. Therefore Harry Potter drives up Disney World attendance.

I would alter this to say that Harry Potter drives up the Magic Kingdom attendance. For people who are coming to Central Florida primarily to go to US, they may indeed spend a few days at WDW. But maybe they don't hit up every park. But the one park they are almost assured of going to is the MK.

There is a lot of teeth gnashing here about crowds and poorly predicted ones at that. But in my anecdotal recent experience, the MK was way more crowded than we had expected or hoped, but the rest of the parks were pretty much spot on with what we anticipated. Could be closures at DHS that are causing more people to spend less time there. Could be HP fans who were hitting up the MK on one of their Disney days. Whatever the reason, the MK was disproportionately crowded as compared to the other parks. Yes, it has always been true that the MK is the most crowded park. But I am talking about disproportionately crowded as compared to prior years.