Time to Restructure Crowd Calendars?

[DisneyDad2015]

They don't seem to be anywhere near accurate anymore, even on days that are considered "most recommended" according to easywdw. I'd say sites may need to look into changing how they calculate crowd calendars.

 

[Robo]

 

[BoltzNBrew]

Crowd calendars are pretty much useless now. Just go to any park on whatever day and expect them to be running attractions at 1/3 capacity. Instead of planning 30 min per attraction plan an hour or more waiting in line.

 

[mykidsmom]

I was just wondering what happened yesterday at MK. Touring plans had it a 5 and said actual crowd was a 9????

 

[snayak]

much like weather forecasts, crowd calendars rely on history to guess at what happens in the future.

Unfortunately, Disney has thrown a wrench in the works by running parks at (much) lower capacity then in the past. It will take time to gather the data - but, if this trend continues, then this time next year we should have better calendars.

If somebody could accurately estimate crowds/wait times in the future with any consistency regardless of operational changes, they should pick the winning lottery numbers, not run a a Disney website (unless the site is a labor of love, I guess...)

 

[GovieMom]

I was just wondering what happened yesterday at MK. Touring plans had it a 5 and said actual crowd was a 9????

Easy had it listed as a 4, with MK as a recommended park.

 

[wookiebeck]

The issue is understanding how the rankings are created. I think the unoffical guide explained it this way, for example:

They use proportional math of ranking the 36 lowest attended days a 1, the next 36 a 2, up to the 36 highest days ranked at a 10.

2007
highest attendance day of the year 50K people. Lowest attendance all year 10k. Rank from 1 to 10.

2016
Highest attendance day 75K people. Lowest attended day 50K. Rank from 1 to 10.

See how it shifted? So you are correct, a new way of ranking based on crowd density is what the OP might be asking for.

 

[dkrauss]

much like weather forecasts, crowd calendars rely on history to guess at what happens in the future.

Unfortunately, Disney has thrown a wrench in the works by running parks at (much) lower capacity then in the past. It will take time to gather the data - but, if this trend continues, then this time next year we should have better calendars.

If somebody could accurately estimate crowds/wait times in the future with any consistency regardless of operational changes, they should pick the winning lottery numbers, not run a a Disney website (unless the site is a labor of love, I guess...)

The above comment is pretty accurate. Impact's to crowds are many. As Pete stated yesterday on the DISUnplugged, Brazil is suffering through tough economic times and that looks to be impacting Disney's summer bookings from those tour groups. That could be better than expected crowd numbers during the summer (yeah that's a dream ). Any crowd calendar projecting the future is just that a projections. Use it for base planning and if it isn't accurate...................well..............what are your options? It is what it is...........right.

Doug

 

[Naterfan]

These calendars are best guesses and a service provided for FREE. Once you come up with a better solution, let us know.

They don't seem to be anywhere near accurate anymore, even on days that are considered "most recommended" according to easywdw. I'd say sites may need to look into changing how they calculate crowd calendars.

 

[Praying Colonel]

I don't really look at crowd calendars anymore. It seems that most park days are heavy park days now, with only relatively minor gradations in the heaviness.

I look at a regular park calendar in an attempt to dodge the Magic Hour/party/Money Hour events, but otherwise I just show up early with a plan and hope for the best.

 

[mickeyluv'r]

I've had very good luck using my own system for many years, thanks! I have consistently said crowd calendars were junk.

Simply put, most people use emotion to plan their schedule, they aren't actually interested in avoiding crowds. I think many folks actually enjoy being in the majority most of the time.

Recently someone asked which park they should visit on their birthday, the majority of respondents gave a purely emotional answer. I'm fairly confident that's exactly what the OP wanted when they posted the question.

Many folks claim they want shorter waits, but deep down they don't. They fear isolation, and prefer to be in the majority. Long waits actually validate their choices.

 

[anniemae]

One of the problems is that people need to understand that a "5" today is much different from a "5" ten years ago. A "5" today is like what an "8" was ten years ago. Also, things like Soarin being closed has dropped attendance at Epcot and closures at DHS also makes people avoid that park, making MK more crowded. The crowd calendars are just predictions and it's hard to take everything into account. I remember last Oct (I think it was Oct) MK was insanely busy and everybody was baffled as to why. Lines to get in the parking lot were long, the line for bag check was endless, ride queues were long etc. Well it turns out there was a Jewish holiday and because of the way it fell during the week, many schools (a lot in NY, NJ, and FL from what I read) were closed wed, thur, and fri. So what did everyone do? Go to Disney. As someone said in another thread, never underestimate the impact a few Northern states can have on attendance.

 

[thegajone]

I don't really look at crowd calendars anymore. It seems that most park days are heavy park days now, with only relatively minor gradations in the heaviness.

I look at a regular park calendar in an attempt to dodge the Magic Hour/party/Money Hour events, but otherwise I just show up early with a plan and hope for the best.

I'm with you. I pretty much choose which parks to visit based on whether they have EMH; if they do, I avoid it. And I try to avoid MK on weekends if I can.

Despite the crowds and the decreased capacity (which is a major bummer for sure), I can still do everything I want to do at each park in 1 day with a good touring plan and FP+ usage.

The only problem with that is that my favorite way to enjoy Disney is to "just wing it". I like waking up in the morning and saying "which park do you want to go to today?" and just go about our business casually: arrive when we want, ride what we want when we want, eat when/where we want, leave when we want, etc. Sadly those days are over.

 

[cygnusx1jg]

Until the new/revamped attractions open at Epcot, HS and AK all that needs to be done is keep the crowd calendars as is for the above parks and change MK to a permanent 9 and not recommended.

 

[quagmire0]

What has caused such an uptick in park attendance? Has to be an improvement in the economy, right? Because Disney hasn't gotten any cheaper and the park improvements have happened at a snail's pace.

 

[JimmyV]

Easy had it listed as a 4, with MK as a recommended park.

But...but...but...that site is always right!

 

[GovieMom]

But...but...but...that site is always right!

Yeah, right. LOL

 

[havoc315]

They don't seem to be anywhere near accurate anymore, even on days that are considered "most recommended" according to easywdw. I'd say sites may need to look into changing how they calculate crowd calendars.

Between FP+ issues, and reduced capacity, the ability to really predict a crowd calendar has really suffered.

Sure.... a day in the middle of April will have far far fewer people than a day during Christmas week. But if you are operating at reduced capacity, those April lines can actually be worse than Christmas lines.
And where Disney is making major unpredictable changes in their staffing and capacity, you can't predict it.

I'm going very very late summer. The crowd calendars suggest the crowds should dip significantly. I assume Disney will operate at full capacity most of the summer. I am HOPING they continue to keep full capacity through labor day, so that I get full staffing + reduced crowds = short lines. But if they reduce staffing in mid August, then I could be in for a horrible trip.

 

[Kimberly9701]

Between FP+ issues, and reduced capacity, the ability to really predict a crowd calendar has really suffered.

Sure.... a day in the middle of April will have far far fewer people than a day during Christmas week. But if you are operating at reduced capacity, those April lines can actually be worse than Christmas lines.
And where Disney is making major unpredictable changes in their staffing and capacity, you can't predict it.

I'm going very very late summer. The crowd calendars suggest the crowds should dip significantly. I assume Disney will operate at full capacity most of the summer. I am HOPING they continue to keep full capacity through labor day, so that I get full staffing + reduced crowds = short lines. But if they reduce staffing in mid August, then I could be in for a horrible trip.

I went in September of '15. Yes, the crowds were higher than predicted, no it was not a "horrible trip". I chose my dates this year according to the crowd calendars, and common sense- My two choices were Thanksgiving week OR December 3rd. We will be on DCL's Fantasy 11/26-12/3. Thanksgiving is rated 9/10 levels so I chose 12/3 instead.

 

[RustManFan]

I say just ignore the calendars