Time to Restructure Crowd Calendars?

[MouseMum]

Our family just got back last week and I used the crowd calendar for most of the days. Our first day we arrived at Hollywood Studios at approx. 5pm and it was the most recommended park. It gave reasons which appeared valid enough but holy cow....it was completely packed. Long lines for everything and the streets were so crowded it was hard to walk around.We had a fantasmic reservation but left early instead. Over the course of the week everything appeared way more crowded than our last April vacation but that was 6 years ago. The next night we went to Disney Springs and by 7pm it was just a sea of people. This was not fun at all and just getting a meal before we left was an act of congress. I think it is what it is...busy most of the time and take it or leave it. This was our last trip as a family most likely, both kids are now teens. It's time for new adventures and a more relaxing style of vacation without the huge lines. It was a good time but I can think of plenty ways to have a fun vacation for half the cost. I know...it's a Disney forum and I should only make good comments but I am just being honest.

for your honesty.

Given that my early WDW vacations were as a child/teen/honeymooner, and some 25 years later my fascination with Disney began, I have only my 2014-15 trips and my current Disney obsession to use to compare park crowds. Have crowd levels increased dramatically since 2014? Or are we talking about decade(s) of attendance incline?

 

[Goofey Drool]

I can just say that I have gone in 1992,1998, 2006, 2008, 2010, 2016 and sometimes it was busy and sometimes not as much. I have gone on the third week of April all but one of those trips. So that being said, I am somewhat familiar with crowd levels in April but I have no idea about other times of the year. I remember past trips stopping and watching street shows or characters wandering in the park that make people stop and watch. It seems like now most everyone is trying to get to that next show or ride with more desperation. The lines were as long or longer at times in the past like the year easter was during our trip. However, it seems more consistently crowded now. Some say it's because Disney caters to so many groups now to fill the place...cheerleading competitions, High School bands, Star wars half marathons, Gay week, etc. etc. The parks have not grown a lot in 20 years and the population has about doubled on this planet. I think the increase is slow but steady.

 

[book_junkie]

There are a ton of groups all over from March until summer. Cheer and dance competions ( and Orlando just hosted a huge dance competion aside from Disney), school trips, sweet 15 trips, band trips- they've everywhere. So you're fighting groups to get places, and it doesn't help that people want to get their money's worth and are really upset about FP+ and then hour long waits in normal lines. Plus the price increases overnight in food.

And Disney has been raising the "capacity" of the parks without adding a lot of attractions to show for it.
Think for a second. They tore out the driving experience and added that to the MK parking lot, thereby adding that many more people who can get in. But have there been closures yet over Easter or Spring Break? Nope.
They've blocked off half of HS- you can't go past basically Muppets on one side and Toy Story on the other, but have they lowered the capacity of the park and started closing it? Nope. And that also took out food carts and two quick services with nothing to replace them. Finding tables in the food court around ToT is crazy, and people will hound your table waiting for you to leave. I'm waiting to hear of fights.

 

[DisneyDad2015]

I had a conversation with a CM this past week and he mentioned the crowds getting much worse. He contributed it to the Harry Potter stuff at Universal drawing more crowds to Orlando and also WDW. I'm not really sure if I agree with him, but it was the first time I'd heard that theory, and I was surprised a CM would give any credit to Universal.

 

[cel_disney]

I really think we need to see what happens when all of the attractions that should be opened - finally open. 3 theatres of Soaring and FRoway are going to suck up people. And ROL with AK as an evening park will definitely help thin the others too. Many people (us included!) had planned April trips this year expecting some of those things to be open/ready - instead we contributed to clogging up DHS and MK!

 

[DVCcurious]

What we need is another recession. Then we can all enjoy shorter lines! 7 straight years of economic growth and job creation has had an effect on crowds at Disney World.

 

[Kimberly9701]

What we need is another recession. Then we can all enjoy shorter lines! 7 straight years of economic growth and job creation has had an effect on crowds at Disney World.

Favorite post!!!!!!!!!!!

Really, I don't remember being at WDW when it wasn't crowded. Not during Spring Break or Summer anyway. I'm hoping for low crowds 1st week of December, meaning lower than Thanksgiving week...not expecting an empty park. There will always still be times that are more crowded than others, but if you go with the mindset that you know it's DISNEY WORLD and will always have some level of crowds.

ETA- I did not go to WDW between 2010 until 9/15. So I can't speak for crowds levels during that time. But I will take a healthy economy and a few more people in line in front of me, rather than the alternative.

 

[Kimberly9701]

Your last sentence makes me feel better. I am going this year during the week of September 11th, and I was getting so worried when I saw people saying that September 2015 was worse than June. I was starting to panic lol. So thank you for saying that you had a good time...it gives me hope!

Don't let the negativity affect your excitement. You will have a wonderful time!! In the end, you at WDW, with your family! Choose wisely on FP etc and all should be fine

Trust me, I'm worried about crowds..but either way we will manage and I'll make sure we have a wonderful time. As the parent- that is MY job, first and foremost.. My child's happiness is the only reason i am planning this trip..and any curve ball that gets thrown at me I will face, and still, regardless of how many tracks are running, I will ensure that he has a magical trip

 

[Boski]

I guess I'm still one of the few who still look at the crowd calendars/touring strats/most recommended days?

 

[anneboleyn]

Don't let the negativity affect your excitement. You will have a wonderful time!! In the end, you at WDW, with your family! Choose wisely on FP etc and all should be fine

Trust me, I'm worried about crowds..but either way we will manage and I'll make sure we have a wonderful time. As the parent- that is MY job, first and foremost.. My child's happiness is the only reason i am planning this trip..and any curve ball that gets thrown at me I will face, and still, regardless of how many tracks are running, I will ensure that he has a magical trip

Beautifully said Thank you for your words of wisdom. My daughter and I are so excited to go and I am sure we will have a magical time, even if it is with more people than we originally antipated lol

 

[Minnie-Mickey]

I don't put much stock in that. School district calendars are set at a minimum two years out, but in most cases, three years out. I could already tell you what our calendar is for up to 2017-2018, and with a phone call could find out 2018-2019. While there may be individual state testing that could be in play, there certainly isn't anything unique to the Northeast region. And any state testing is also set at least 2-3 years in advance and wouldn't result in any calendar movement.

I don't think the crowd predictions have as much to do with the knowledge of when vacations are as much as it has to do with the inability to predict how many people are going to go to WDW. And this is an economic indicator that is beyond Easy and TP. The economy is improving and attendance at WDW bears that out. I don't think that the crowd predictors go back that far, but I am certain that any prediction done in 2000/2001 would have been way off when it came to 2001/2002. And any prediction in 2007 would have missed badly for 2008-2009. The tanking economies during those two periods couldn't be forecast. And I guess the current recovery couldn't either.

I wish this was the case. In our town, we are not provided with even the next school year schedule until end of April for the following year. No way they would be that organized here to let us know that far out. Can your district teach ours how it is done, it would be nice.

 

[MickeyMinnieMom]

Unfortunately, Disney has thrown a wrench in the works by running parks at (much) lower capacity then in the past.

I keep hearing this here. This wasn't our experience in Apr at all. Is this just one of those popular DIS assumptions based on news of cuts?

 

[snayak]

I keep hearing this here. This wasn't our experience in Apr at all. Is this just one of those popular DIS assumptions based on news of cuts?

I have not been to confirm with my own eyes - however Josh at EasyWDW and other anecdotal stories tell of long lines and attractions running at half capacity (e.g., one of 2 sides of Dinosaur or Great Movie Ride running, Monorails down a whole lot or starting later in the day, etc).

Posted Wait times and updated crowd calendars seem to correlate this, with lines as long as traditionally peak times of the year despite the spring usually being less crowded.

How much of this is due to reduced capacity at Epcot and DHS as expansion is completed, ROL and AK delays, operational cuts (staffing or otherwise, for whatever reason), or a late Easter, has not been officially acknowledged by Disney so we can only speculate.

(Doesn't make wait times any less though...)

 

[MickeyMinnieMom]

I have not been to confirm with my own eyes - however Josh at EasyWDW and other anecdotal stories tell of long lines and attractions running at half capacity (e.g., one of 2 sides of Dinosaur or Great Movie Ride running, Monorails down a whole lot or starting later in the day, etc).

Posted Wait times and updated crowd calendars seem to correlate this, with lines as long as traditionally peak times of the year despite the spring usually being less crowded.

How much of this is due to reduced capacity at Epcot and DHS as expansion is completed, ROL and AK delays, operational cuts (staffing or otherwise, for whatever reason), or a late Easter, has not been officially acknowledged by Disney so we can only speculate.

(Doesn't make wait times any less though...)

Ah. Got it. Largely (if not all) anecdotal, and FAR too many variables to draw conclusions in any real way.

Not that this is the appropriate bar for a discussion forum (!!), but if I had posited this cause/effect, and put this "evidence" forth in business school or in the workplace to support it, I would not have fared well.

 

[Kimberly9701]

I wish this was the case. In our town, we are not provided with even the next school year schedule until end of April for the following year. No way they would be that organized here to let us know that far out. Can your district teach ours how it is done, it would be nice.

My son goes to a private school.. But it's May now, and I don't expect to receive next year's calendar for a week or 2.

 

[Kimberly9701]

I guess I'm still one of the few who still look at the crowd calendars/touring strats/most recommended days?

I look too..example- it shows non party days more crowded at MK than party days. Because of this, I'm planning both of our MK days on party days. One doing RD, then take a break, then heading back for the party. 2nd day- leave before party starts.

 

[lovethattink]

I've stopped using crowd calendars, even though I am subscribed to both TP and CL and use EasyWDW. Started allowing for more flexibility. I go with the thought that it's going to be crowded, then am pleasantly surprised when it's not. I'm at the parks often, so if I don't do something it's no biggie. Being there so much, I can really notice how crowds have increased. Even so, our fun factor has not decreased. Any day at Disney is better than a day somewhere else.

 

[MickeyMinnieMom]

Even so, our fun factor has not decreased. Any day at Disney is better than a day somewhere else.

 

[Love Tink]

Ah. Got it. Largely (if not all) anecdotal, and FAR too many variables to draw conclusions in any real way.

Not that this is the appropriate bar for a discussion forum (!!), but if I had posited this cause/effect, and put this "evidence" forth in business school or in the workplace to support it, I would not have fared well.

Eyewitness testimony isn't evidence?

Wow, we better let about 70% of convicted felons out of prison.

There are a lot of long-time posters who have contributed to this discussion (well, contributed beyond months of saying "prove it" any time it comes up) whose eyewitness observations I trust.

 

[MickeyMinnieMom]

Eyewitness testimony isn't evidence?

Wow, we better let about 70% of convicted felons out of prison.

There are a lot of long-time posters who have contributed to this discussion (well, contributed beyond months of saying "prove it" any time it comes up) whose eyewitness observations I trust.

Oh, goodness. These things are not at all comparable. And FWIW, eyewitness testimony is notoriously faulty, btw!

It's just a mathematical/statistical fact that one cannot draw conclusions from extremely unscientific, non-random (self-selected DISboards users), statistically insignificant sample sizes (too small); nor without controlling for the myriad variables at play here. I just can't argue this fact with anyone.

I'll excuse myself from the anecdotal stuff for today. #unwatch