Confirmed:Classic Resorts To Increase to $130/pt. On March 20th

[BWV Dreamin]

One thing I keep hearing is that there are waitlists for the classic resorts. During my phone call, my guide told me there were 30 people on the waitlist for VWL( heard her counting too) for all UY. My specific UY there were 7 ahead of me. Others have mentioned waitlists for other resorts. So, if there are now waitlists where 2-3 years ago there were none, that would give them incentive to now increase the older resort prices. Just a couple if weeks ago VWL was rofred stripped.

 

[Breyean]

One thing I keep hearing is that there are waitlists for the classic resorts. During my phone call, my guide told me there were 30 people on the waitlist for VWL( heard her counting too) for all UY. My specific UY there were 7 ahead of me. Others have mentioned waitlists for other resorts. So, if there are now waitlists where 2-3 years ago there were none, that would give them incentive to now increase the older resort prices. Just a couple if weeks ago VWL was rofred stripped.

Yes, it sounds as though the WDW DVC properties are now reaching the wait list point, just as VGC has been pretty much since it "closed out" a couple of years ago.

I was on that VGC wait list twice - once for quite a while; the second time only a couple of months. And that was when the direct price was $120; now it's $130 and there are still wait lists.

It's too bad the WDW resorts are reaching that stage, too. You'd think DVC would realize if there's a wait list those people are sales just begging to give Disney their money, and would be more active in acquiring points to satisfy that demand.

I mean, if they cam buy back an OKW resale for $60 and resell it now for $100 (and maybe, soon, $130 if these rumors pan out) then why not take that easy money?

I wonder if that would drive resale prices up, since in my example, if you wanted to get that OKW past ROFR, then maybe you need to pay $90 rather than $60?

 

[chalee94]

I wonder if that would drive resale prices up, since in my example, if you wanted to get that OKW past ROFR, then maybe you need to pay $90 rather than $60?

1) i expect they'll still differentiate between the "sold out" resorts so OKW should still be cheaper than $130.

2) i would be happy to wager that whatever happens with direct pricing will not drive up resale prices in any noticeable way.

 

[intertile]

only thing that will directly effect resale market going up...will be Disney ROFR more often. If Disney raises prices to $130, then they can start buying back contracts of all the resorts at $100 and reselling them to fit the waitlist need. That will drive up the resale market somewhat. obviously supply and demand will also take into effect. I don't see SSR jumping much, because there are so many contracts out there, but a BWV/BCV contract may see a nice jump.

Of course if new restrictions are coming down the line that may cause prices to drop even more. That is also a double edged sword for Disney....if they come down with more resale restrictions that are out of line, then I would seriously rethink adding-on (as would others)because once the points are purchased they may never be resold at any real value.

 

[Missyrose]

only thing that will directly effect resale market going up...will be Disney ROFR more often. If Disney raises prices to $130, then they can start buying back contracts of all the resorts at $100 and reselling them to fit the waitlist need. That will drive up the resale market somewhat. obviously supply and demand will also take into effect. I don't see SSR jumping much, because there are so many contracts out there, but a BWV/BCV contract may see a nice jump.

Of course if new restrictions are coming down the line that may cause prices to drop even more. That is also a double edged sword for Disney....if they come down with more resale restrictions that are out of line, then I would seriously rethink adding-on (as would others)because once the points are purchased they may never be resold at any real value.

There's no way Disney would ROFR a contract for a $30 "profit." DVD's costs for employees and marketing isn't cheap, so they rely mainly on getting contracts back for free (either through foreclosure or through members giving their contracts back), and will sometimes ROFR contracts at way lower than the $100 mark.

 

[dwight16]

are these people disney employees? why would they send out letters about buying BWV to me and when i call on wanting 25 points they are like its wait list time. that makes no sense. i am on the list for 25 points for BCV or BWV he did not ask for a deposit just said 25 points cant be financed and will go right on the disney card.

 

[Breyean]

There's no way Disney would ROFR a contract for a $30 "profit." DVD's costs for employees and marketing isn't cheap, so they rely mainly on getting contracts back for free (either through foreclosure or through members giving their contracts back), and will sometimes ROFR contracts at way lower than the $100 mark.

Normally I would agree with you. But if they have a wait list for a resort those are basically sales they have already made. No additional costs other than processing the paperwork. No marketing, etc. These people are already sold on DVC direct and have even given over their credit card info.

And at VGC for the past year they have been ROFRing contracts with just about that spread, so maybe now that people are reporting wait lists for the WDW resorts as well they will expand that practice to those. Plus if they DO increase the direct prices as rumored that gives them more profit until and if the resale prices adjust.

 

[Brian Noble]

Missyrose is exactly right. For context, Wyndham's publicly reported cost for land acquisition and resort development has ranged between 20-25% of sales over the last six years. Assuming DVD's costs are similar, that $130 contract would have to be acquired for $26-$32, not $100, before it makes DVD as much money as just building a shiny new resort.

And, it is possible that DVD's development costs are even lower, as the land underneath the resorts is leased to DVD, not sold.

What's more, those people on the waitlist didn't just show up on it. They've been taking calls from Guides over the years, going to Welcome Home Wednesdays, doing the webcasts, etc. DVD constantly markets upgrades to existing owners in ways both subtle and direct---and they market to everyone, even though a relatively small fraction of them will upgrade. So, the costs remain substantial.

Edited to add: it is true that marketing costs to existing owners are lower than new ones---Wyndham discloses 32% and 58% respectively---but that just means more profit potential from selling a shiny new resort rather than an "old" one with a higher cost basis.

For reference, the presentation with the Wyndham details is here:
http://www.wyndhamworldwide.com/investors/presentations

If you have any interest in the business behind timesharing, it is worth a read.

 

[Madhattr]

When we were on the 2/10 sailing of the Dream we purchased 240 BWV points. We didn't want to deal with ROFR and we may be able in time to use them for the things that are currently restricted with resale. Our guide told us we were some of the last to get the points. He called the following week to let us know that between our sailing and the next the BWV points were all gone and a wait list was in place again. We feel really good about our direct purchase. I know it's not for everyone but it was right for us. So...in the span of two weeks we have our membership cards, points banked, AND three ressies in place for the rest of the year.

 

[intertile]

I just got a call back from my guide regarding classic resorts.

The only increases that he has been told about are for Aulani/AKV. There is nothing that has been announced for any other resort. His exact quote "We have not been told anything to that effect. Could they decide to do it? Yes, but it would be an unprecedented move." He also said that no NEW RESTRICTIONS have been announced. Again, he told me all of that can change, but the guides don't find out until approx. 30 mins prior to a general announcement to the public. Also, no announcements yet for GFV as per sales date or point charts.

He had every reason to lie to me, because he knows that I want to add-on and have decided that retail will be the way I do (more for contract size than anything else). I am holding back until my next visit to make sure I decide on the right resort for us. So if he wanted to push a sale, this was his opportunity.

 

[tjkraz]

So the answer is yes more restrictions ARE coming.

So said--implied, really--the person who wanted to ease a buyer's mind about adding additional points.

It would be foolish to say that there will never be additional restrictions placed on resale...or benefits given to direct buyers. The earliest DVC resorts will continue to lose value as they creep toward the 2042 expiration date and present a much more economical alternative to direct. And over these three decades DVC will have numerous bosses with different takes on how to approach the marketplace.

That said, nobody I have spoken with at DVC has given indication that additional restrictions are anywhere close to happening.

The timing doesn't even make sense right now. Consider:

* Grand Floridian is preparing to debut, and will not be available via resale in mass quantities for 18-24 months. Direct sale will be the only real option.

* AKV is now over 90% declared (likely over 88% sold). This webcast may be sufficient to push sales within a stone's throw of "sellout."

* Aulani sales are unspectacular but even in the best of circumstances it was always going to be an 8-10 year project. And resale restrictions won't help Aulani.

* Most importantly, DVC sales are chugging right along. Total point sales for 2012 calendar year were down a bit (8%) over 2011 CY but Disney more than made up for that with higher prices and reduced sales overhead (closing DTD locations, fewer costly incentives like free cruises & APs.)

Right now DVC has no compelling reason to bend more buyers toward direct purchase when:

1) They are still putting up good numbers from the uninformed buyers who don't know about resale.

2) Current members still buy small contract add-ons direct because they are so difficult to find resale. Giving a little nudge like this webcast pricing doesn't hurt, either.

3) Direct purchase will be the only practical way to buy/add Grand Floridian for the next couple of years.

 

[BWV Dreamin]

Was wondering when you would chime in....

Well we all know resales chages are going to happen, just don't know when. I do believe what this guide said about the classic resort prices increasing. Very specific about the date of March 20. Now until there is an official announcement nothing will be believed.As a licensed real estate agent they can't just make up stuff. She did not commit to a date for further restrictions, but she did for the points increase to $130. She cant just throw that info out there again as a licensed RE.

So said--implied, really--the person who wanted to ease a buyer's mind about adding additional points.

It would be foolish to say that there will never be additional restrictions placed on resale...or benefits given to direct buyers. The earliest DVC resorts will continue to lose value as they creep toward the 2042 expiration date and present a much more economical alternative to direct. And over these three decades DVC will have numerous bosses with different takes on how to approach the marketplace.

That said, nobody I have spoken with at DVC has given indication that additional restrictions are anywhere close to happening.

The timing doesn't even make sense right now. Consider:

* Grand Floridian is preparing to debut, and will not be available via resale in mass quantities for 18-24 months. Direct sale will be the only real option.

* AKV is now over 90% declared (likely over 88% sold). This webcast may be sufficient to push sales within a stone's throw of "sellout."

* Aulani sales are unspectacular but even in the best of circumstances it was always going to be an 8-10 year project. And resale restrictions won't help Aulani.

* Most importantly, DVC sales are chugging right along. Total point sales for 2012 calendar year were down a bit (8%) over 2011 CY but Disney more than made up for that with higher prices and reduced sales overhead (closing DTD locations, fewer costly incentives like free cruises & APs.)

Right now DVC has no compelling reason to bend more buyers toward direct purchase when:

1) They are still putting up good numbers from the uninformed buyers who don't know about resale.

2) Current members still buy small contract add-ons direct because they are so difficult to find resale. Giving a little nudge like this webcast pricing doesn't hurt, either.

3) Direct purchase will be the only practical way to buy/add Grand Floridian for the next couple of years.

 

[intertile]

Was wondering when you would chime in....

Well we all know resales chages are going to happen, just don't know when. I do believe what this guide said about the classic resort prices increasing. Very specific about the date of March 20. Now until there is an official announcement nothing will be believed.As a licensed real estate agent they can't just make up stuff. She did not commit to a date for further restrictions, but she did for the points increase to $130. She cant just throw that info out there again as a licensed RE.

I guess time will tell. My guide specifically denied any price increase for the classics. One of the 2 is lying or misinformed/uninformed.

 

[tjkraz]

Well we all know resales chages are going to happen, just don't know when.

Well, depends upon how you want to qualify that.

I would say it's very likely that we see expansion of the items which are already restricted. This has already happened. Grand Cal was added back into Disney Collection, from which resale buyers are blocked. There was a recent addition to the Concierge Collection. And those who only own resale points have been blocked from member cruises.

Disney has every reason to keep improving the areas which are already restricted.

After that, the greatest likelihood (IMO) is the addition of NEW benefits from which resale buyers are blocked. Could be something as simple as a preferred check-in desk, early room access, etc.

Jim Lewis wasn't exactly the most member-friendly leader DVC could have had (understatement of the year.) Others within DVC have realized that removing existing perks / benefits is the worst possible approach they could take. Not that there's a whole lot they could take away. Resale buyers aren't going to be held to their Home resort, or any other restriction of that magnitude.

That said, I'm not questioning the information on pricing. Haven't confirmed one way of the other myself but it sounds reasonable.

What I would question is your Guide's claim (commitment, promise) that you will be exempt from future resale changes. Two things:

1) Do you really believe that Claire Bilby, Ken Potrock or any other DVC exec gave the sales staff approval to take that stance on future resale restrictions with members and prospects?

2) If you do believe that happened, do you also believe that any future DVC chief will feel obligated to uphold that verbal commitment?

Your Guide may be right on the money with regard to pricing but she doesn't know a darn thing about future resale restrictions. Those claims are meaningless.

 

[pinnocchiosdad]

I will never understand the DVC resale market. Some contracts are selling for half the price of direct sales. Most people that I know who passed on the resale market did so only for their need to utilize Disney financing.

 

[tjkraz]

I will never understand the DVC resale market. Some contracts are selling for half the price of direct sales. Most people that I know who passed on the resale market did so only for their need to utilize Disney financing.

It's not rocket science.

Resale prices are the closest thing you'll get to a true market value for the points.

Most who buy direct do so out of ignorance. They stop by a DVC booth--get roped into a tour with promise of some free FastPasses and a $50 gift card--and end up paying Disney's prices. They simply aren't aware of the alternative.

Every timeshare is like this. Main thing that sets Disney apart is the fact that contracts do actually retain SOME resale value. Many other timeshares are practically valueless the moment you sign on the dotted line (and complete the 10 day waiting period. )

 

[intertile]

Main thing that sets Disney apart is the fact that contracts do actually retain SOME resale value. Many other timeshares are practically valueless the moment you sign on the dotted line (and complete the 10 day waiting period. )

I wish I had read this 7 years ago before I purchased my Marriot Aruba Timeshare....

 

[dwight16]

how much per point was bay lake tower when it came out? how close to the grand Floridian do you all think it will be? also when are they going to start selling it i mean it has to be finished by the end of the year.

also i agree if you need direct finance disney is the only way you can go with out paying insane rates.

 

[luckyman_apd]

I fail to see how anyone can think resale prices will ever rise. Every year that goes by are 1 less years worth of points to use on a contract that has an end date. Even if the prices stayed the same over the next dew years, the actual dollar amount you are paying per point actually goes up.

 

[dwight16]

supply and demand economy gets better no as many people are selling prices go up.....in 2010 i bought 160 ssr for 55 a point....

I fail to see how anyone can think resale prices will ever rise. Every year that goes by are 1 less years worth of points to use on a contract that has an end date. Even if the prices stayed the same over the next dew years, the actual dollar amount you are paying per point actually goes up.