I think Star Wars could have even more staying power than Harry Potter.
I think Star Wars could have even more staying power than Harry Potter.
Considering Star Wars is already 36 years old (from when Episode IV was originally released), and how popular it is with young kids even now, I think that franchise has already proven it has staying power.
This is from the Orlando Sentinel: It discusses the opening of Antarctica at Seaworld yesterday. It is relevant to this discussion. The article tackles some of the same themes. Disney's shrinking share of the Orlando market.
Article
I'm personally not excited about Antarctica. It wouldn't motivate me to add a Seaworld day to our trip. My 4 year old may have different thoughts though.
I still find Disney's stubborn refusal to aggressively add attractions puzzling...and the choice of Avatar even more puzzling.
I do understand that. And you need to understand they I chose to save my vacation dollars in order to purchase DVC and now I rarely travel anyplace else. Plus, DVC is the least of my travel concerns.... Have you seem airfare prices lately?! But I make WDW travel my priority. For Christmas I ask for an annual pass and for my birthday, I ask for Disney Gift cards. I got an American Express Delta card to get the free 30k miles and other perks. I use my Capital One CC rewards to pay for everything else travel-related. I nickel and dime my way to Disney so that I CAN go several times a year.
If people choose to go once every 5 years and spend their travel dollars and time elsewhere in the interim, so be it. But I guarantee I'll gain more satisfaction from my time at WDW because I do not have to elbow grandmothers at Hollywood Studios' rope drop, I refuse to spend all day in a park, and my AP allows me to walk into Epcot to get breakfast in France and then return to BCV and not go to a park again that day.
If people want to try to do it all in one trip, I wish them the best. But with four theme parks, two water parks, DTD, 20 resorts, 75 restaurants and 130+ attractions, it simply isn't possible. I always tell people: pick a few must-dos each day. From there, do what's available, comfortable and fun. Sounds like FP+ will fit that mantra perfectly.
Regarding Harry Potter, Universal and Disney
IMHO, Harry Potter will have terrific staying power.
Universal use to be for teens, young adults and thrill seekers, but with HP, there is some serious family wooing going on.
Avatar is a funny thing. It does not have the fan base. It is fraught with merchandising problems and set design.
If I was a Disney Bean Counter, and could choose today which franchise out of the 3 to pick - its a NO BRAINER - HP hands down. They must be kicking themselves. It was a mistake.
I like Star Wars as well, and it should serve the purpose for Disney.
But on a whole, Disney should be thankful that Universal does not have much land left.
Statistics are funny things, and you can make them mean anything you want. But, I think Disney should be concerned with a 29% increase in IOA attendance in 2011.
*snip*
Ok, lots of explanation but now I want to get back to the point of 29% increase at Universal in 2011. This is a significant amount. Why? Because not only did IOA increase by 29%, but 1 or 2 things had to happen. 1)People had to be interested enough to spend an extra 150 per person to go see universal while visiting disney: and that is significant if you consider a family of 4. 600 dollars extra for ticket media alone, when they have already spent 1000 on Disney's weeks worth of tickets. That HP MUST be a powerful draw. 2)Or, instead, people decided not to see Disney, but Do Universal, Sea World, and some other combination of attractions, bypassing Disney totally.
Universal Orlando is now getting HP 2, and the attraction again, is slated to be awesome AND family friendly. Hmm, how do you think this will impact Disney? They might be hoisted by their own petard, if you know what I mean.
Its possible that there could be a whole new ticket structure coming out by Disney to combat this very problem.
And yes, Disney should be concerned. Very Concerned. As far as we know, Disney is combating Universal's HP with infrastructure that may, or may not work. They better be pulling a rabbit out of their butt somehow. Infrastructure may be good for long term, it may make more money out of their existing clients, but it has zero 'apparent' attraction for guests today.
Is this supposed to benefit the planners or non-planners?
It seems the planners-meaning us- are not the target audience. No one I've seen has suggested a way the majority of us could come out better.
It isn't for the non-planners. They won't make plans in advance and will have less same day options.
Newbies may think they are benefiting. They won't know better. But, as has been mentioned, I don't think this is enough to entice people who wouldn't have come otherwise. Maybe it'll get them to plan more Disney days but not more New guests.
The only group who benefits is the planners who like to sleep in and want the 1 headliner per day.
This whole thing is about data mining and maximizing resources. They don't expect this to improve the guest experience, and decided the data and resource management is worth any decrease in guest satisfaction. The bet is the Disney name can absorb the hit, and they won't lose a significant customer base.
The above is worse case scenario, and I hope I'm wrong. I hope the new pres put a stop to this, if it were the plan. But based on what I've read, both official info and speculation, it's the only thing that is logical to me.
Regarding Harry Potter, Universal and Disney
IMHO, Harry Potter will have terrific staying power. And, although the first 3 books were definitely 'tweenish' the last four were far more adult. But even still, the elements of this franchise can appeal across the board. I enjoyed the HP books as an adult, and was excited to see HP land at Universal, and it did not disappoint me. I am one of the target consumer types that both D and Uni want : Adult with children, with enough disposable income to vacation every couple of years. Universal use to be for teens, young adults and thrill seekers, but with HP, there is some serious family wooing going on. I think HP franchise will be equal to LOTR, Star WArs, ect.
Avatar is a funny thing. It does not have the fan base. It is fraught with merchandising problems and set design (ok, come on, just close your eyes and picture NAVI Minnie- can't you see mothers with small children fleeing with their strollers? )
I have the utmost respect for James Cameron, and I really liked the movie. Its 'theme' world conservation is an excellent and enduring, and, in my opinion, a perfect fit for AK. But, holy heck, its going to be hard work for 1)merchandisers, 2)costume & set design. Where it could be outstanding, is if James gets the Tech aspect rolling in his land, which I have a lot of confidence he can do. The night time element could be awesome as well.
But if I was a Disney Bean Counter, and could choose today which franchise out of the 3 to pick - its a NO BRAINER - HP hands down. ESPECIALLY for Disney- because like you say, its so big for the tween market. Huge. They must be kicking themselves. It was a mistake.
I like Star Wars as well, and it should serve the purpose for Disney.
But on a whole, Disney should be thankful that Universal does not have much land left.
Statistics are funny things, and you can make them mean anything you want. But, I think Disney should be concerned with a 29% increase in IOA attendance in 2011. This is what that means to me, but I am going to have to explain the "magic' of My Way tickets first. Lets consider this:
Disney's bean counters make the average vacationer choose EITHER Disney or Universal on their one week vacation through the front loading of tickets. How did they do this? Well, before 2005, a 7 day Disney ticket would have had a price structure would look like this (Im too lazy to look up the actual ticket prices, just using some numbers to illustrate a point)
Day 1 costs 60 bucks
Day 2 costs 58
Day 3 costs 55
Day 4 costs 53
Day 5 costs 52
Day 6 costs 51
Day 7 costs 48
So, Joe visitor with a family of 4 could choose to do only 6 days at disney, and buy a 1 day ticket for Universal, and the cost difference to them would only be a matter of a small amount of dollars, I think around 5 or 10. No biggie. So, if Joe was considering seeing at least 1 day at Universal, it would be a simple decision, not based on cost.
Now, those magic bean counters (oh how I admire them for this) did something absolutely amazing. Astounding, Astonishing. They front loaded the tickets and here is what happened (first, the ticket structure, and not exact numbers)
Day 1 65 bucks
Day 2 63
Day 3 61
Day 4 58
Day 5 20
Day 6 3
Day 7 2
What happened here? Well, the price difference between a 5 day ticket, and a 7 day ticket is literally only a couple of dollars. So, when Joe vacationer is making up his mind about what he is going to do in Orlando, well all of a sudden, there is a dilemma. By dropping 2 days off his Disney theme park ticket he is only going to save 5 bucks per person! Then he has to cough up the gate price of Uni for 2 days which is around 150 per person. All of a sudden, the decision is easy. WOW! This ticket price structure was a blow below the belt for Universal. Positively brilliant. Amazing.
And, just food for thought, back in the day when the old D price structure was around, How many people saved their old tickets and admission media if it had one or two days left on it. Everybody had some in their sock drawer, I did! They were worth 50 to a hundred bucks. Then, those Magic My Way tickets debuted and guess what? It devalued those single or 2 day tickets that were in my sock drawer to 5 bucks! How? Well, the next time I did a week vacation, I would have 2 days on my old media ticket, and need to buy a 4 or 5 day ticket. Hmmmmm. And by not purchasing 1 or 2 days on a 7 day ticket, I was saving myself 5 bucks per person. Freakin Brilliant you little RAT Mickey!
And, Im sorry, but 2 more angles on this. When the my way ticket came out, the whole Disney population on these boards were happy! Look at this, fantastic. I can get a 10 day ticket for almost the same price as a 5 day ticket. WOW. How did this help disney? They got people to 1) stay at Disney parks and not stray to other shiny parks, 2) stay longer, driving up food and merchandise profits.
Non Expiring Option
This is brilliant too. Joe Vacationer looks at his base MWY ticket and says, hey, to make it non -expiring, it only costs40 bucks per ticket. So he buys his 7 day ticket, uses 5 days, and 'saves' 2. He spent 40 bucks to insure a 2 day ticket, that is literally worth 5 bucks the next time he visits, assuming he has to purchase 4 days or more. Now, I know, that savvy Dis people know how to use the 10 day NE ticket properly, but you are 10 % of the population. Average joe visitor has not a clue, and they make up 80% of the visitors. This is pure gravy for Disney.
Ok, lots of explanation but now I want to get back to the point of 29% increase at Universal in 2011. This is a significant amount. Why? Because not only did IOA increase by 29%, but 1 or 2 things had to happen. 1)People had to be interested enough to spend an extra 150 per person to go see universal while visiting disney: and that is significant if you consider a family of 4. 600 dollars extra for ticket media alone, when they have already spent 1000 on Disney's weeks worth of tickets. That HP MUST be a powerful draw. 2)Or, instead, people decided not to see Disney, but Do Universal, Sea World, and some other combination of attractions, bypassing Disney totally.
Now, IOA attendance was up by 29%, but Universal Orlando was only up by a much smaller percentage. So, perhaps HP was only enough to get Joe vacationer to visit 1 day at IOA, and not 2 park days. But, Universal Orlando is now getting HP 2, and the attraction again, is slated to be awesome AND family friendly. Hmm, how do you think this will impact Disney? They might be hoisted by their own petard, if you know what I mean. The ticket structure that has now, up until this point, worked like an accountants dream. Now, if Universal can make joe vacationer choose Universal OVER Disney because of that ticket structure, look out.
Its possible that there could be a whole new ticket structure coming out by Disney to combat this very problem.
And yes, Disney should be concerned. Very Concerned. As far as we know, Disney is combating Universal's HP with infrastructure that may, or may not work. They better be pulling a rabbit out of their butt somehow. Infrastructure may be good for long term, it may make more money out of their existing clients, but it has zero 'apparent' attraction for guests today.
Great post. I think Disney believes the planners love Disney enough to just get over any angst about the new system. And they hope the non-planners will now be enticed into planning and start loving Disney even more.
And yes, I agree with your comment about the late sleepers. In reading one thread after another over the past 6 months or so, I have noticed one constant. The late sleepers are the one group consistently happy about the new system.
Hey, is Harry Potter wildly successful right now? Absolutely. But will 12 year old girls be reading that 10 years from now? Maybe, maybe not. Granted the series was the biggest ever and will probably have staying power, but I'm not sure it will be AS popular as, let's say, Toy Story ten years from now.
Toy Story 1 came out in 1995. My sister and her now husband basically just met that year. Right now they have a 9 year old, 6 year old, and 4 year old. None of them were even born for the first two movies! Yet who was their favorite growing up? Buzz. Those kids movies are very powerful for marketing the brand.
Potter is essentially for Tweens. I can't be sure that any of my nieces or nephews will read the series. So why then will they go to Universal? I think we're over-glamorizing Harry Potter because the series is still fresh and people still love it. It'll pass and be replaced by something new for the next group of Tweens (like Hunger Games...) Meanwhile, the next generation of parents will pop Toy Story into the DVD player and their kids will fall in love.
Yes...and keep in mind the late sleepers are the majority (or rope drop wouldn't work as a low-crowd strategy) Good news is it will still work as those FPs will be the ones all us Rope Droppers take and while late sleepers ride their big attractions we will ride all the little ones they didn't want FPs for