I guess "holding a lot of cards" depends on perspective.
https://www.businessinsider.com/disney-loss-estimate-youtube-tv-dispute-espn-morgan-stanley-2025-11
Disney appears to be losing $30 million per week and the loss will distinctly affect earnings.
Google, with the $20 monthly rebate, would lose $200 million per month minus the amount they pay Disney and minus the amount of people who do not claim the rebate (the rebate has to be actively claimed and is not automatically refunded.)
Based on numbers alone Disney is likely losing more in the short term. However, that does not tell the entire story. Youtubetv is a financial rounding error for Google. It is 2% of Disney's earnings. Everyone is losing here, but Google can wait this out much longer than Disney. No one wins.