Would you pay to have resale points be unrestricted?

[Robbie Cottam]

yes, agree for it to make sense for Disney buy direct would have to cost less then resale and upgrade.

 

[OKW Lover]

Technically, yes. But, DVD does have the ability, if they want, and including it in the RIV paperwork, to set up some type of program that gives resale buyers a chance to pay to end up with points good everywhere. Not sure that would ever happen, and if it did, I think it would not be cheap..

I don't think they can change now. Isn't the offering set when they got approval from the state to market the units originally?

 

[Sandisw]

I don't think they can change now. Isn't the offering set when they got approval from the state to market the units originally?

It was set as part of the POS for RIV. It’s not only in there, but they make owners sign a specific document that outlines that part if the POS.

That language says that DVD reserves the right to remove the restrictions and add them back in. They can create different rules for different club members, which could include some sort of cash option.

So, the changes made in 2019 for resale buyers in reference to RIV can indeed be changed because it is part of the contract we signed.

 

[hglenn]

It was set as part of the POS for RIV. It’s not only in there, but they make owners sign a specific document that outlines that part if the POS.

That language says that DVD reserves the right to remove the restrictions and add them back in. They can create different rules for different club members, which could include some sort of cash option.

So, the changes made in 2019 for resale buyers in reference to RIV can indeed be changed because it is part of the contract we signed.

Do you think there will be a time where RIV will be flooded with reservations, making it almost impossible for non-owners to get rooms there? I'm thinking, once sold out and more resale points are out there that can only be used at RIV but can be booked at 11 months, do you think the 7 month window will narrow or become essential non-existent for other resort owners.....even direct owners at other resorts?

 

[Robbie Cottam]

Do you think there will be a time where RIV will be flooded with reservations, making it almost impossible for non-owners to get rooms there? I'm thinking, once sold out and more resale points are out there that can only be used at RIV but can be booked at 11 months, do you think the 7 month window will narrow or become essential non-existent for other resort owners.....even direct owners at other resorts?

it is a possibility And only time would tell.

 

[Sandisw]

Do you think there will be a time where RIV will be flooded with reservations, making it almost impossible for non-owners to get rooms there? I'm thinking, once sold out and more resale points are out there that can only be used at RIV but can be booked at 11 months, do you think the 7 month window will narrow or become essential non-existent for other resort owners.....even direct owners at other resorts?

Most of the data suggests that a resort has about 10 to 20% resale points.

Once an original owner sell, no matter how often that same contract is sold, it does not impact the resale to direct ratio

So, once RIV is sold out, and resale points exist, then I do think 7 month bookings will be harder because some owners won’t be trading out.

Now, whether that is going to be any higher than those resorts that currently have limited rooms at 7 months? Any ones guess

But. I do think it will take years before we see any thing like that. SV rooms are hard to get now and there are very few resale points.

 

[havoc315]

Do you think there will be a time where RIV will be flooded with reservations, making it almost impossible for non-owners to get rooms there? I'm thinking, once sold out and more resale points are out there that can only be used at RIV but can be booked at 11 months, do you think the 7 month window will narrow or become essential non-existent for other resort owners.....even direct owners at other resorts?

But you're forgetting that the re-sale restrictions will restrict more non-Riv owners than Riv owners. In other words, there will be tons of non-Riv owners without the ability to trade into the Riviera.
The result being: The 11 month window may get slightly more competitive BUT the 7-month window will get LESS competitive.
And the majority of owners of most resorts book home resort the majority of the time anyway. (for much of the year, at most resorts, it's now impossible to book a studio unless you do it in the 11 month window). So restricted or unrestricted doesn't make a big difference the majority of the time.

The net effect should balance out. You'll have fewer people looking to trade in to Riviera at the 7-month window. So while there may be slightly less 7-month availability (which is already very low at most resorts most of the year), there will also be far less demand for that availability.

 

[havoc315]

Most of the data suggests that a resort has about 10 to 20% resale points.

Once an original owner sell, no matter how often that same contract is sold, it does not impact the resale to direct ratio

Let's do a basic math exercise.... Say Riviera is completely sold out... So I'll look at about 300 owners booking 300 rooms on any given day.
10-20% are re-sale -- So 30-60 of those owners can't book anywhere but Riviera.
But out of that 30-60, how many would have been booking Riviera even if their points were unrestricted? I dare say 50-70% would be booking their home resort anyway. Using the low end, 50%... that means 15-30 of the rooms being booked at Riviera are only being booked there because the points are restricted.
So.... "home resort" booking demand may increase by 5-10% because of the restriction.

Meanwhile, if 10-20% of all non-RIV points are restricted -- And if Half those owners are looking to trade out their points to another resort... That means the demand to trade in to Riviera is also reduced by 5-10%.

In other words -- Eventually, Riviera may have 5-10% less "trading out" activity, but it will also have 5-10% less "trading in" activity. So total supply/demand of rooms should stay about the same. Just the usage by home resort owners will be 5-10% higher than other resorts.

 

[Robbie Cottam]

But you're forgetting that the re-sale restrictions will restrict more non-Riv owners than Riv owners. In other words, there will be tons of non-Riv owners without the ability to trade into the Riviera.
The result being: The 11 month window may get slightly more competitive BUT the 7-month window will get LESS competitive.
And the majority of owners of most resorts book home resort the majority of the time anyway. (for much of the year, at most resorts, it's now impossible to book a studio unless you do it in the 11 month window). So restricted or unrestricted doesn't make a big difference the majority of the time.

The net effect should balance out. You'll have fewer people looking to trade in to Riviera at the 7-month window. So while there may be slightly less 7-month availability (which is already very low at most resorts most of the year), there will also be far less demand for that availability.

If the resort fills up between 11 and 7 months the 7 month window becomes kinda pointless…

My SWAG say this MAY be slightly more difficult than booking the BCV or BLT but that’s it.

You grab the rooms that are available, and waitlist the rest of your trip…

 

[kayleebrooke]

Yes

 

[Sandisw]

Let's do a basic math exercise.... Say Riviera is completely sold out... So I'll look at about 300 owners booking 300 rooms on any given day.
10-20% are re-sale -- So 30-60 of those owners can't book anywhere but Riviera.
But out of that 30-60, how many would have been booking Riviera even if their points were unrestricted? I dare say 50-70% would be booking their home resort anyway. Using the low end, 50%... that means 15-30 of the rooms being booked at Riviera are only being booked there because the points are restricted.
So.... "home resort" booking demand may increase by 5-10% because of the restriction.

Meanwhile, if 10-20% of all non-RIV points are restricted -- And if Half those owners are looking to trade out their points to another resort... That means the demand to trade in to Riviera is also reduced by 5-10%.

In other words -- Eventually, Riviera may have 5-10% less "trading out" activity, but it will also have 5-10% less "trading in" activity. So total supply/demand of rooms should stay about the same. Just the usage by home resort owners will be 5-10% higher than other resorts.

Sure...but you also have to take into consideration the number of people who choose to go direct which can trade into RIV. And, the addition of new resorts that will add points to the system that can book it..ie: Poly tower. So, I agree there are more resale owners being shut out of RIV than RIV resale owners...and there will be...but there are going to continue to be direct owners.

My thought...and maybe I didn't express it well...is that I think the impact of resale owners on getting RIV will be at the 7 month mark, and not for those who own there. So, I do think there is a possibility that non resort owners will have a more difficult time down the road...but as I posted, it won't happen for many many years

 

[Robbie Cottam]

This biggest effect is restricted resale owners will have to plan to hook at the 11 month window. They will be little or no effect to direct owners, other than they will also have to book early or risk having to use there points elsewhere.

 

[hglenn]

This biggest effect is restricted resale owners will have to plan to hook at the 11 month window. They will be little or no effect to direct owners, other than they will also have to book early or risk having to use there points elsewhere.

Oh boy. Thanks very true. Hadn’t thought about that but having no other options will def require 11 month booking and little flexibility… will also impact rental possibility.. ok, I was thinking of buy resale there bc I do want to stay there but thinking about down the road, could be tough!

 

[Sandisw]

Oh boy. Thanks very true. Hadn’t thought about that but having no other options will def require 11 month booking and little flexibility… will also impact rental possibility.. ok, I was thinking of buy resale there bc I do want to stay there but thinking about down the road, could be tough!

Owners who do buy resale there will certainly learn quickly to book when the window opens. I only bought 125 resale because I knew exactly how I would use them...for 3 or 4 nights in a 1 bedrooms for my January/Feb trips. They are Dec UY...so if I had to cancel, I have plenty of time to find some date to book with them later on.

Worst case, if I couldn't, then I would have confirmed nights to rent out/or give to family/friends to use! But, it is definitely something one needs to think about and plan carefully or you could end up with a lot of lost points.

 

[Robbie Cottam]

As far as renting:
It is harder but not impossible to find someone that has a contract in place prior to the 11 month window. I normally have one or two of these a year at BLT. And maybe 1 every couple of years at SSR….

If I were in that situation, resales points and needed to rent this year, I would book around the race weekends or holidays… then wait….

Renters 45 percent of renter think of DVC as a hotel room and want to book 60 days out or less…

It is a risk but you would have the room they wanted and could charge a premium …

 

[havoc315]

Sure...but you also have to take into consideration the number of people who choose to go direct which can trade into RIV. And, the addition of new resorts that will add points to the system that can book it..ie: Poly tower. So, I agree there are more resale owners being shut out of RIV than RIV resale owners...and there will be...but there are going to continue to be direct owners.

But there will also always be increasing numbers of direct Riviera owners, for a very long time. (Covid really hurt sales at Riviera, practically shutting down sales for the period of time when they should have been highest. It's quite conceivable Riviera never sells out).

Additionally -- Over time, a number of current direct owners will be converted to re-sale owners. I imagine, for example, a number or original direct BLT contracts are becoming re-sale contracts families have aged out of Disney.

And with each new resort -- it brings new DVC direct owners, but it also provides another property for DVC owners to trade into.

DVC supposedly has 220,000 owners. So let's imagine that's about 175,000 direct owners and 45,000 re-sale owners.
So 15 properties, 220,000 owners, 175k direct and 45k resale.

Now, fast forward 5 years into the future -- It's now 16 or 17 properties. Some of the 175k direct owners have become re-sale contract. And there has been an addition of direct from the 1-2 new properties.
So even if you went up to 235,000 owners..... That doesn't mean direct went from 175k to 190k...
Maybe you went from 175k direct to 187k direct. (Assuming that out of the existing 175k direct contracts, about 2% converted to resale over those 5 years).
So instead of 175k direct owners spread over 15 properties, it's now 187k spread over 16-17 properties..

Point being, it all should more-or-less balance out...

My thought...and maybe I didn't express it well...is that I think the impact of resale owners on getting RIV will be at the 7 month mark, and not for those who own there. So, I do think there is a possibility that non resort owners will have a more difficult time down the road...but as I posted, it won't happen for many many years

Maybe. But to me, it's more likely that supply will be very slightly more limited at the 7 month + 1 day mark, as you have a small percentage of owners who can't trade out. While availability will be very slightly greater than other resorts at the 6month29day mark, as you have fewer guests able to trade in. (and they wouldn't have traded in before the 7 month mark anyway).



Somewhat of a wash.

 

[PalmettoPath]

I'm not in that position, but if I were (and it wasn't too excessive in my judgement), I probably would.