Would You Buy DVC in 2006?

[Dean]

Since we've seen one scenario for the Eagle Pines resort, lets try a different version. I'm going to place us in 2006 when everything is sold out except Eagle Pines and Beach Club (yest I know BC will likely be sold by then but I want a comparison). There is no Magical Beginning and all resorts trade with each other in one Disney Vacation Club. There are no new additions to the club and none are expected. Disney Collection, Concierge Collection and Disney Cruise lines are no longer an option for members. Pool hopping has been terminated. The only difference between resort ownership is home resort priority and when the resort ends. In 2042, the current resorts plus BC will simply drop out of the system leaving EP alone. In 2006, the direct price from Disney is $100 pp, Disney is still excercising their Right of First Refusal and resale purchasers are still being treated equally.

Further assume that EP is every bit the equal of BC, WLV and BW as far as quality and activity is concerned and that the rooms are more OKW size. Remember there are also Grand Villas. Also assume that the point per room for EP are 10% higher than BC which is 10% higher than WLV.

 

[dianeschlicht]

I voted for the new DVC under those conditions. I would, however, prefer OKW, but when you put it that way, it is a better looking vacation deal to have more years.

 

[Tigger1]

I voted Eagle Pines. Not for the free golf. The real golfers may not want usa amatures out there. We would have fun on those golf carts though. I am going for the 48 years. I am not sure we would stay there though. I love Vero. If I could not stay at any other resort I am not sure what I would choose.


Tigger

 

[SwampFox]

What are the rack rates for rooms at WDW? What is the status of finding discounted rooms for cash ressies? What is the going rate for rentals from DVC members?


These factors also are a consideration for DVC ownership, as evidenced by recent comments. More information please, since you're creating a very suspect scenario anyway. Very convenient to remove many of the extra features of the existing program. I guess time will tell!

 

[Dean]

Originally posted by SwampFox
What are the rack rates for rooms at WDW? What is the status of finding discounted rooms for cash ressies? What is the going rate for rentals from DVC members?


These factors also are a consideration for DVC ownership, as evidenced by recent comments. More information please, since you're creating a very suspect scenario anyway. Very convenient to remove many of the extra features of the existing program. I guess time will tell!

Agreed but not the group I was going after. I was really looking at current members or member wanabees who had to start fresh in a few years for whatever reason. The main focus was to give the new resort an advantage but at a higher price, but keep it part of the "club" until 2042. I felt Vernon stacked the deck on his poll and wanted to give the other "extreme".

 

[AnnK]

In this scenerio I can trade into all the other DVC resorts, when they drop out, will I continue to trade into them for the remainder of my EPV membership, or will the rest of my years only be at EPV?

 

[RobDoc]

It looks like Dean has stipulated that in 2042, EP owners will have only that resort for reservations.

In 2042, the current resorts plus BC will simply drop out of the system leaving EP alone.

 

[vernon]

Dean, I object to you saying I "stacked the deck" . The question is as simple as it could possibly be. I didn't say there would be no swapping between the different DVC's, only that it wouldn't/couldn't be guaranteed ( which IMHO it can't). The only other difference I make is EPV will be under construction for a number of years and the other DVC resorts are finishes. That isn't stacking the decks it's stating the obvious and allowing people to make their own minds up.

If Disney has cancelled ALL it's other benefits by that time do you seriously think they would be giving rounds of golf away? The golf courses are a separate profit body and IF members at EPV were to get free golf I'm 100% certain they will be paying top $$ for it, one way or another.

 

[Dean]

Originally posted by vernon
Dean, I object to you saying I "stacked the deck" .

Sorry, Vernon, not trying to offend you only stating that I believe you gave a worst case scenario and honestly stated that gave the absolute opposite and one sided scenario. I did this purposefully. Frankly not only do I disagree that the resorts couldn't trade as one DVC, I fail to understand the rational that goes into the statement.

While I realize that the 3/2000 Multi Site POS sates on page 10 section III.1.a that

The term of the vacation club as to a specific resort will continue through January 31, 2042, which is the duration of ownership interests at each of the DVC resorts.

And under III.1.d

the term of the Vacation Ownership Plan will continue through January 31,2042......unless.......the term is otherwise extended in accordance with the DVC Resort Documents.

I cannot find anywhere where it says directly that the Club terminates. In every case I can find, it's in relation to the end of the current resorts. Regardless, it would be a simple matter for the board to vote to change it.
The way I read this, the club could continue in it's present form if ANY of the resorts are extended and it would not require that they all be or even if they were extended, it might be for different terms. This does pose an interesting scenario. What if they did have EP expiring later, it would certainly open the door for an extension of the current resorts which could be rather effortless to do on a limited scale.

You simply send out a letter to the owners and say do you want to pay us an extra $???? and we can keep it going to 2054 or so. If enough people say yes, you go forward, if not, nothing has changed.

 

[vernon]

Dean I'll put dinner for 4 ( you, me and partners) at the best restaurant on VEP the end date is 2042. I know it's a few years until either of us have to pay up but it would be fun LOL

Obviously dinner is when it's announced not 2042 or I'll be needing a bib and eating soup LOL .

 

[RobDoc]

I cannot find anywhere where it says directly that the Club terminates. In every case I can find, it's in relation to the end of the current resorts.

I agree, Dean. I haven't fouind any reference to DVC ending in 2042, just the expiration of the ground lease for each of the present resorts and thus our ownership and membership in DVC.

There is also a provision which allows for the creation of new resorts with a different end date- within DVC itself. This sugests, to me, that there is no need for a DVCII.

All of these aspects are tempered with the other phrase you quoted: "......unless.......the term is otherwise extended in accordance with the DVC Resort Documents."

Stay Tuned!

 

[AnnK]

When we purchased we asked our guide about the ending date and I remember he said that it would end in 2042, UNLESS DVC decided to extend it beyond that time for some reason.

 

[Dean]

Originally posted by vernon
Dean I'll put dinner for 4 ( you, me and partners) at the best restaurant on VEP the end date is 2042. I know it's a few years until either of us have to pay up but it would be fun LOL

Obviously dinner is when it's announced not 2042 or I'll be needing a bib and eating soup LOL .

Let me see, dinner for 4 at the premier restaurant at EP in 2004-2005. If it ends 31 January, 2042, I pay, if it's announced anything else, you pay. Sounds like a lot of fun. As long as we get to go tegether for one to collect, you're on. The way I eat sometimes, I may need a bib in 2004. LOL. It'd be worth the cost of dinner to sit down to dinner with you. Dang, don't you just hate the waiting.

 

[Dean]

bump

 

[Dean]

I must say things are going much as I expected. EP is a little behind where I though it would be and the wouldn't buy is more than I expected but that's why we did the poll. I'd like to get at least a hundred but preferably over 200 responses. Please forgive me if I keep bumping it for a couple of weeks. Once we get to the end, I'll post my thougths and give others a chance to do the same.

 

[Dean]

bump!

 

[Laurajean1014]

Cute board, but not at all realistic.....................

 

[Dean]

Originally posted by Laurajean1014
Cute board, but not at all realistic.....................

Please explain.

 

[dianeschlicht]

HMMMMM. I don't understand that response either.

 

[Dean]

I'm a little surprised by the results but no a lot. I though the EP and BC would be a little higher the way I set it up. The 11% not to buy at all was the largest surprise to me since the poll was on this board. The low showing for HH and VB combined didn't surprise me at all though they are great resorts in their own right. My suspicion is that the EP resorts would be higher in actual practice than in a poll 5 years before it even opens and that OKW and possibly BW would be a little lower. I think the biggest difference would be for OKW as I envision some similarities in resort characteristics to the new EP resort that would put them in direct competition for members. BC, BW and WLV would be in direct competition to a certain extent also. Obviously there are many unknown factors that will shift the percentages including the specifics for BC and EPV, the fall of pool hoping, the minimum points required, the actual price and spread between resale along with the ending time of EP. There are also many other factors for a potential owner to consider.