now things can be replaced by literally millions of other options instantaneously by a click of a mouse, touch of a screen, or key of a remote...and that will never go away.
we've lost our powers of memory...because there is too much stuff in the window of the mind to windowshop anymore.
Such is with potter...i have no doubt (though i'm sure i will get responses that will tell me i'm wrong) but i'll wait for the judgement of pop culture and history on this one. My hunch (opinion) is that the kids that grew up potter will find it more silly that nostalgic or timeless when they grow up and have their own kids...cause it really is.
the days of mickey mouse, star wars...and yes...even toy story might just be gone. we have too much to look at...and not enough dedication to remember it.
Facinating argument..and well put. I disagree in some ways...I think the problem with so much media isn't that staying power / the power of memory is gone. It's more the fracturing of popularity. There are so many things out there to be interested in, that the portion of the fan base that is interested in it becomes smaller. So, using your example of Lord Of The Rings...there are people out there that are still very much into it, it's just a small portion of people.
For these POP culture touchstones to stay powerfully relivant over a long period of time takes two things in my view: nostalgia and new content. Part of the reason that something like Star Wars has stayed around so much is it has both. The parents generation that was into Star Wars when they were children, and a continued new stream of toys, video games, TV shows. So, the nostalgia fuels it enough, even though this older generation doesn't care for the new content as much, we like Star Wars, and like seeing our kids liking Star Wars. The new content is what actually hooks the kids.
Another example of this is Star Trek, though the intial popularity surge was odd, once it was popular, it stayed with new media with movies, novels, then several TV shows. The TV shows dropped in quality and went off the air, and Star Trek became irrelavant. Then, someone comes along and re-boots the movie franchise with a pretty good movie, and suddenly Star Trek is back within the pop culture - thanks to both nostalgia and new content.
This is also why Disney whips Universal hands down - not necessarily in the quality of their new rides, but in their ability to work these two things hand in hand. Disney has so much content available, that they have the nostalgia going for just about any parent, whether its Princesses, Star Wars, Muppets, whatever. And many of these things they continue to put out new content...which keeps it relevant. You get to share your past with your children, while at the same time they get something new.
It's part of why Toy Story 3 blew up so big...it's old enough now (at 15 years) to actually have the nostalgia factor going for it.
One of the most genius things Disney has done in the last 5 years is Mickey Mouse Club House. They discovered that by skewing the characters younger than they were originally intended, they can generate popular new content. Nostalgia + new content = Mickey and the gang are more popular than they've been in 30 years.
So, getting back to Universal: Universal's theme parks have a lot of great product, but much of it is missing one or both of the components. First of all, a lot of stuff there skews too old for the nostalgia factor. A movie you see when your 18 doesn't grab you that way. But even the stuff that does (say Jaws or maybe Jurrasic Park) - there is no new content. A problem even with Suess Landing, which has nostalgia in spades. Probably the only thing they got going that has both is the Marvel Island (which leads them to revenue sharing with Disney).
So, what of Harry Potter's staying power? Well, let's say this, of all the things that Universal owns, this is the most likely thing to give them that. There's a generation here that was raised with Harry Potter, and though they are not old enough yet to pass it onto their kids, they will be soon enough. (If we say that the HP phenomenon started around 2002 in the US, then the oldest kids that were into it then are likely in their early twenties.) BUT, the great problem here is new content. Jo Rowling is keeping the HP Universe very much to herself. (Rumors of new books have surfaced, but have never actually been acclaimed by Rowling herself.) Once these last two HP movies come out, new content comes to a likely end. And THIS may end up being what starts to sink the HP popularity. Something more relavent and fresh will come along. Yeah, it'll stick around, but might lose its immense popularity.
That said, I have no doubt that Universal should expand Harry Potter land. Probably the best investment in their parks they could make. Surely better that Rip, Ride, Rocket. Did a single tourist decide to go to Universal for THAT?