With Resale High is Riviera Direct best option?

[we"reofftoneverland]

I’d go direct. Pricing is competitive. You get your points right away. Current resale market has gotten weird. And. Blue card.

 

[ziravan]

Comparing Riviera’s Guaranteed Week Chart to its 2022 Points Chart:

I’m just gonna compare standard studios just to make the point as to how the reallocation since the guaranteed week chart was published affects the “premium”. The chart was originally set with a 10% premium for each week.

1. The first 3 weeks of Sept have dropped in points necessary to book, now requiring 104 points to actually book but requires 128 or 143 for the fixed week depending on which week. That’s now a 19% or 27% booking premium.

2. Week 1 actually costs 116 to book and guaranteed week is 120 so 3% premium now,

3.Weeks 40-46 (Oct - mid Nov) actual 130, Guaranteed 130. Zero premium.

These are interesting charts to compare but the bottom line is this: if you’re already buying in the point range necessary to secure a guaranteed week, doing so costs you nothing and could be a hedge against the effects of the resale restrictions.

IF standard studios aren’t difficult to book at 11 months, c’est la vie.

IF they DO become difficult to book, a guaranteed reservation at 12 months is gonna be a really sweet thing to have in your pocket.

 

[ziravan]

(Sorry I’m not really trying to overtake the thread with a guaranteed week discussion but the OP did express some interest in it and they are considering buying at Riviera. I’m just trying to point out what might be a useful consideration, whether the OP actually does so or not, I thought it was useful to make the case.)

In actuality, for the first time, we’re considering adding Riviera points. We stayed there and absolutely loved it. But, since we already have experience with fixed weeks, for us, it’s a no-brainer to add that as a hedge against any 11-month difficultly booking that might result from the resale restrictions.

 

[rubybutt]

(Sorry I’m not really trying to overtake the thread with a guaranteed week discussion but the OP did express some interest in it and they are considering buying at Riviera. I’m just trying to point out what might be a useful consideration, whether the OP actually does so or not, I thought it was useful to make the case.)

In actuality, for the first time, we’re considering adding Riviera points. We stayed there and absolutely loved it. But, since we already have experience with fixed weeks, for us, it’s a no-brainer to add that as a hedge against any 11-month difficultly booking that might result from the resale restrictions.

Look at the 1 and 2 bedroom RIV at week 44. I was initially going to go this route, but decided that having 2 studios for resale was better than 1 larger contract. But you could make the case it would be better to do a FW 2 bedroom 44.

 

[ziravan]

With how high resale is right now, is buying direct at Riviera the best value? 300 points with incentives brings the price down to around $175 per point. Would probably break that up into 2 contracts so I could gift to m kids one day. I am aware of the resale restrictions, we like Riviera, and accept that if we want to sell in the future it may not get top dollar. I hope to use the points many times before that happens! We also thought of Old Key West direct, but I believe transportation will be an issue in the future, plus the 11 month booking window does not factor in as much at OKW so I thought it will be open at 7 months more often than not.

Thoughts? Anyone else thinking how I am?

What did you decide to do if you don’t mind me asking?

 

[djjeff]

What did you decide to do if you don’t mind me asking?

I ended up purchasing 300 points direct at Riviera. With incentives it was down to $175 per point. I ended up dividing into 2 contracts for a couple of reasons. One being if I ever needed to sell it would give me a little flexibility and with a smaller contract an easier sell. The other reason is that it would give me the ability to give each of my children a contract to use someday. I thought long and hard about the guaranteed week, just decided not to.
I decided on Riviera direct vs OKW direct due to we just like Riviera more and thought the 11 month window has more value at Riviera.
Versus resale at other resorts the cost for resale just seem up there for me. I Love the Riviera, how "compact" a resort it is and that it has the Skyliner as an alternative source of transportation

 

[sethschroeder]

Even if those are true, I might still wait for DL tower/VGF2 or wait for the APs to return or buy other direct points, like AKL.

Which will drastically skew the math. DL Tower and VGF are not going to be remotely in the vicinity of $175 for 300 points. Additionally AKL will save you $3/point now but long term I would suspect RIV stays even or slightly ahead of AKV pricing so its really a wash with MFs likely being a wash long term and the ability to possibly book standard point rooms at RIV.

Unless you are trying for those value/club rooms at AKV which are really hard to book with people walking the rooms. I would be more likely to agree with getting OKW if you are trying to go "cheaper" since you can book all the AKV rooms anyways and its a larger upfront savings. Plus Disney is more likely to prop up that resale price through ROFR long term leading up to 2042.

 

[Ginamarie]

With how high resale is right now, is buying direct at Riviera the best value? 300 points with incentives brings the price down to around $175 per point. Would probably break that up into 2 contracts so I could gift to m kids one day. I am aware of the resale restrictions, we like Riviera, and accept that if we want to sell in the future it may not get top dollar. I hope to use the points many times before that happens! We also thought of Old Key West direct, but I believe transportation will be an issue in the future, plus the 11 month booking window does not factor in as much at OKW so I thought it will be open at 7 months more often than not.

Thoughts? Anyone else thinking how I am?

We bought RIV earlier this year- $170/point. It seems like a bargain now because a lot of resale contracts are selling higher than that and have shorter expirations. Plus, we love Riviera.

 

[RamblinWreck]

We bought RIV earlier this year- $170/point. It seems like a bargain now because a lot of resale contracts are selling higher than that and have shorter expirations. Plus, we love Riviera.

I also wonder what will happen to the Riviera resale market once the resort sells out.

If people are willing to pay $150/pt while it's still actively being sold direct, even with all of those restrictions, it really makes me wonder how much more in line with other resale contracts it might become.

 

[AnnaKristoff2013]

I’d go direct. Pricing is competitive. You get your points right away. Current resale market has gotten weird. And. Blue card.

Does anyone think the resale market has gotten so high relative to direct because of the lack of AP sales right now? And that it might fall a bit when AP sales resume and blue cards actually have some real benefit (assuming they do under the new AP scheme).

 

[Sandisw]

Does anyone think the resale market has gotten so high relative to direct because of the lack of AP sales right now? And that it might fall a bit when AP sales resume and blue cards actually have some real benefit (assuming they do under the new AP scheme).

I don’t think that is the reason because if having the AP would be important to someone, it would not make sense to rush into DVC resale vs waiting it out or going direct in hopes,

I am not really sure why it has gone crazy but I do believe the active ROFR we have seen has made an impact.

 

[CarolMN]

Does anyone think the resale market has gotten so high relative to direct because of the lack of AP sales right now? And that it might fall a bit when AP sales resume and blue cards actually have some real benefit (assuming they do under the new AP scheme).

No. I think resale prices have risen due to supply and demand. Because of the pandemic, there is a pent up demand for travel and many have unspent travel budgets available. Prices for travel-related items (hotels, rental cars, etc.) are also increasing due to that. More buyers means steady or rising prices for things in limited supply.

 

[The Jackal]

No. I think resale prices have risen due to supply and demand. Because of the pandemic, there is a pent up demand for travel and many have unspent travel budgets available. Prices for travel-related items (hotels, rental cars, etc.) are also increasing due to that. More buyers means steady or rising prices for things in limited supply.

Yes and no. Yes there is demand, but DVC has changed strategy and is now actively selling most of the Legacy 14 resorts. They are buying back contracts at an all time high. SSR taken in the $120’s. A year ago DVC wouldn’t touch SSR in the mid $90’s. When you push resale prices up to where they are RIV direct prices start to look pretty good. I’m not knocking on RIV, it is a beautiful resort, but over $200 pp direct, incentives can bring it down a bit, it’s not for me. The Skyliner keeps on crashing, but they get it up and back in service faster now.

 

[stlrod]

Don't forget Riv resale. It's a great time to consider it because of the prices. Just a few months ago, I paid $134 for 300 points (the same number you are considering) with double points the first year for which I paid no dues and rented easily for an average of just over $17 per point bringing the net price to $117. For a contract that size, that's a savings of $17,400 or a little more than 30% off Disney's promotional pricing of $175. Fair trade off for not being able to book elsewhere. And really no need to worry about ROFR at Riv or later taking a big hit on value since the original owner took that hit. I also have other points I can use though so it's not for everybody.