WIRED article: Disney's $1 Billion Bet on a Magical Wristband

Actually I think one of the interesting things is that this is the most clearly stated I've ever seen it that the guest whose experience Disney is hoping to improve the most with FP+ / MagicBand is not the repeat visitor, it is the first-timer. And in the context of the first-timer, I think most of the quotes/implications in the article about improving spontaneity, reducing choices actually improving people's experience, etc., are true. One of the reasons I think this is that I would say that over 50% of the first-timers stepping through the gates of a park have almost no plan other than what they want to see. I think that because although people occasionally post about why two crowd calendars have different values for the same day, for the most part crowd calendars agree with each other pretty well. Which means that if everyone was using them, they wouldn't work as well.

From http://touringplans.com/walt-disney-world/park-recommendations:

Reverse Psychology - Should I avoid the park with the lowest crowd level because everyone will go there?
"If everyone sees that Animal Kingdom has the lowest crowd level," you ask, "won't that quickly become the most crowded park?" Unfortunately, no. While we would love to dictate the ebbs and flows of crowds at Walt Disney World, we just ain't that big (yet). We estimate that a small percentage of people in any park have seen our Crowd Calendar, so consider yourself one of the lucky ones. We monitor wait times every day at every park, so if we do start to influence crowds, we'll be the first to notice.​

If FP+ is making sure that a higher percentage of these people are, at a minimum, going to achieve their three must-dos in every park without waiting in a long line or stressing about whether or not they will be able to fit it in, or if that will end up being the only thing that they do because the line is so long -- then Disney has succeeded in the goal of improving the experience of the first-timer. Even if it is more stressful to do the planning, by the time they arrive on vacation that frustration is in the past, and so it may be true that a higher percentage of first-timers will report feeling that they were very spontaneous on their vacation compared to interview results from pre-FP+ first-timers.

There's no question there are repeat visitors who like FP+ better, and no question there are repeat visitors who like FP+ worse. What is the ratio? I don't think we really know, and personally I would not even be surprised to find that it changes over time as people's expectations adjust.

First-timers, though, don't have anything to like better or worse in comparison, so the question is different. The first-timer question, which I don't think any of us know the answer to, is: given finances not being the obstacle, does FP+ improve the first-timer vacation experience enough to convert a higher percentage of those first-timers into repeaters? And even the ones who are financially prevented from returning -- do more of them go home and tell their friends how amazing it was, and totally worth the money even if you can only do it once?

We did the "trip of a lifetime" when I was a teenager -- my grandparents paid, and we went with a copy of the unofficial guide. My father swore never again. Knowing my father though, and knowing how FP+ can potentially change the experience, I wonder if that would have been his opinion if we re-did the same trip today.
 
First-timers, though, don't have anything to like better or worse in comparison, so the question is different. The first-timer question, which I don't think any of us know the answer to, is: given finances not being the obstacle, does FP+ improve the first-timer vacation experience enough to convert a higher percentage of those first-timers into repeaters?

A great point, and I would say it is on the mark. Under FP-, if a first timer came to me and said: "Download your 44 years of WDW wisdom on me and tell me the best way to beat the lines at DHS", I could have given them a tutorial on Rope Drop, the running of the bulls to TSMM, the "get a FP and then ride" or "ride and then get a FP" choice, and instructions on how to high-tail it over to Sunset Boulevard before the TSMM masses descend there. All in all, it might intimidate, confuse and frustrate the first-timer. Now, I could say: "Go on line 60 days in advance and book TSMM and ToT. Get to the park reasonably early to ride RnR with a minimal wait, or at RD for no wait. Then use your FPs at their appointed times." That first-timer would likely find this second instruction to be much easier on their psyche. Would it get them maximum rides on headliners? No. But the planning and execution of the line avoidance strategy would be much easier to implement.
 
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I hadn't read the entire article before my comment. This really stands out because, for many people, it's so painfully true:

n fact, it’s called the paradox of choice: You make people happier not by giving them more options but by stripping away as many as you can. The redesigned Disney World experience constrains choices by dispersing them, beginning long before the trip is under way.

I think statement really sums up FP+ and the steep divide between those who love it and those who hate it. I never was really able to quantify it before.

Disney figured it out. Most people can't handle too many options and hate being "free". It confuses and frustrates them. It's sort of like people who go back to prison after getting out simply because "it's easier" than living life on the outside. Curious business model but from a strictly numbers / money stand point, I can see the reasoning.

Disney is banking more people fall into the that category than don't.
 

Cool article. Thanks for sharing!

And if anyone is interested in reading more about the reducing choices bit, I highly recommend The Paradox of Choice by Barry Schwartz. It was excellent!
 
Well, it's all there in the carefully managed text - this is targeted to "Full Vacation Control".

Let us decide what's best, at what time, and where, and everything will be alright.

Our displayed schedule is best, no need to change it. Follow our carefully designed, "path for fun" and BOTH of us will be happy.

If there's an issue go see guest services.....

Perfect on the white board, perfect for the first timer.

Heaven forbid something real time impacts the carefully laid out plan....
 
Here is the passage that is most meaningful:

"“Walt Disney World is vast. There’s more to do than you could do in a month,” Staggs says. “That choice is overwhelming.” In fact, it’s called the paradox of choice: You make people happier not by giving them more options but by stripping away as many as you can. The redesigned Disney World experience constrains choices by dispersing them, beginning long before the trip is under way."

Thank you. Thank you. Thank you. For telling it like it is.

And as much offense as some might take from that, it's absolutely true for many people.

When people on this forum talk about going to Universal or Disneyland, they almost invariably at some point talk about 1 thing they like better about either of these places. It's more relaxed. Why? It's smaller. It's easier to plan your days or to go with less planning. And that's all true and it's true because there are fewer choices, fewer options.

It doesn't apply to just clueless newbies. It's the veteran WDW travelers saying this.

Much as we humans like to think we want freedom to do whatever we want, we quite often don't.
 
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And as much offense as some might take from that, it's absolutely true for many people.

When people on this forum talk about going to Universal or Disneyland, they almost invariably at some point talk about 1 thing they like better about either of these places. It's more relaxed. Why? It's smaller. It's easier to plan you days or to go with less planning. And that's all true and it's true because there are fewer choices, fewer options.

It doesn't apply to just clueless newbies. It's the veteran WDW travelers saying this.

Much as we humans like to think we want freedom to do whatever we want, we quite often don't.

Think you're right on the first part(the "more relaxed") and wrong on the second. There are now far more rides and options that interest us at Universal than at Mk as an example. I couldn't do 3 and out at Universal since there are far more must do rides for us there. Whereas at MK there are quite a few old ones but nothing really cutting edge and exciting . What makes it more relaxing is express pass, and lack of over planning since one doesn't have to book 3 rides in advance and can do the park without preplanning
 
Think you're right on the first part(the "more relaxed") and wrong on the second. There are now far more rides and options that interest us at Universal than at Mk as an example. I couldn't do 3 and out at Universal since there are far more must do rides for us there. Whereas at MK there are quite a few old ones but nothing really cutting edge and exciting . What makes it more relaxing is express pass, and lack of over planning since one doesn't have to book 3 rides in advance and can do the park without preplanning

Something else that makes Universal less stressful...1/2 as many people attend compared to Magic Kingdom.

2013 numbers (2014 estimates aren't posted yest I guess...)

Magic Kingdom at Walt Disney World Resort 18,588,000
Epcot at Walt Disney World Resort 11,229,000
Disney's Animal Kingdom 10,198,000
Disney's Hollywood Studios 10,110,000
Islands of Adventure at Universal Orlando Resort 8,141,000
Universal Studios Florida 7,062,000
(data from Wikipedia, from "TEA/AECOM 2013 Global Attractions Report")

And if you just want Unlimited Express Pass for on-site guests....USO has 2,400 eligible hotel rooms (Cabana Bay doesn't get Express Pass) and WDW has 30,469 total rooms (data from Touring Plans).

I'm not saying all the pre-planning isn't ridiculous, but its not quite an apples to apples comparison between Universal and WDW. I enjoyed both WDW and USO during my October trip.
 
Disney figured it out. Most people can't handle too many options and hate being "free". It confuses and frustrates them. It's sort of like people who go back to prison after getting out simply because "it's easier" than living life on the outside.

Is not this simpler? Is this not your natural state? It's the unspoken truth of humanity, that you crave subjugation. The bright lure of freedom diminishes your life's joy in a mad scramble for power, for identity. You were made to be ruled. In the end, you will always kneel. - Loki

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Is not this simpler? Is this not your natural state? It's the unspoken truth of humanity, that you crave subjugation. The bright lure of freedom diminishes your life's joy in a mad scramble for power, for identity. You were made to be ruled. In the end, you will always kneel. - Loki
Eerily similar, no?
 
First-timers, though, don't have anything to like better or worse in comparison, so the question is different. The first-timer question, which I don't think any of us know the answer to, is: given finances not being the obstacle, does FP+ improve the first-timer vacation experience enough to convert a higher percentage of those first-timers into repeaters? And even the ones who are financially prevented from returning -- do more of them go home and tell their friends how amazing it was, and totally worth the money even if you can only do it once?

In the case of the friends of mine who I ended up planning for (they were first timers) - FP+ did not improve their experience. The only reason I ended up planning their trip for them is because my friend was completely overwhelmed by MDE and FP+. She didn't understand the whole concept behind reserving rides in advance...she was basically like (and I'm paraphrasing) - "I've never been to WDW before, how do I know what rides I should book? Or what rides my daughter might even be willing to try?" It was difficult, according to her, to think about what rides to book when she had no idea what the rides were in the first place. So she came to me to ask for help. (Let me make this clear - the feeling overwhelmed was something she came to on her own, *before* she and I talked Disney at all, so she didn't get that opinion from me).

She ended up not using the vast majority of her FP+. Their daughter was too afraid to go on pretty much every ride. So the vast majority of the plans they made before the trip went out the window when they were there and seeing how their daughter was actually reacting to WDW and rides. There was limited availability for rescheduling on the go (I know, b/c I was texting with her at one point and actually did the rescheduling for her on my computer. There was more availability on my computer than the app on my phone was showing.). There was some definite frustration on the trip, and given the conversation she and I had upon her return, a lot of it had to do with finding that they had to completely re-evaluate their plans in the parks each day - plans they wouldn't have made had they not been scheduling FP+.
 
It would seem that Magic Bands and the easy charging would get guests to spend more money? Even a small percentage increase could be hugely profitable with all the guest that visit on an annual basis. Has anyone heard any statistics on that??
 












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