Will we see the same AP increase at WDW someday?

[skier_pete]

From what I can tell, DL has basically decided that they have more AP holders than the park can handle. There choices are (1) limit the number of AP holders at current prices or (2) raise the prices until a certain % of AP holders drop out.

In addition, if you look at the prices, even the 3-day hopper ticket is almost $250. To have a season pass (even limited days) cheaper than a 3-day hopper.

I would bet that the # of drop-outs will actually be less than what they anticipate. Lots of people will ***** and complain but will still re-up their passes.

It will be interesting to see what WDW rates raise, but I think the circumstances are different there. We are taking our first trip to DL this year, and was shrewd enough to pre-buy my tickets and since I expect we will very rarely if ever go to DLR again. A WDW increase of this magnitude would really cut back on our trips.

 

[crocko]

With the frequency of WDW offering discounted packages and free-dining deals...wouldn't you think their increase would be more on par with prior year increases?

 

[lockedoutlogic]

With the frequency of WDW offering discounted packages and free-dining deals...wouldn't you think their increase would be more on par with prior year increases?

if you notice that has been curtailed this year...

 

[lockedoutlogic]

What does this mean?

They have already started on the Snow White ride construction....very visible and progress is being made daily from all the daily picture blogs I have been following.

they did "groundwork" for the snow white ride...and it is the "last phase of expansion"

so no..when i see steel rails being hauled through adventure land....then i will believe it.

disney has shelved, slashed, and downsized their projects so much that in recent years that its now up to them to convince me...not vice versa

 

[DCTooTall]

they did "groundwork" for the snow white ride...and it is the "last phase of expansion"

so no..when i see steel rails being hauled through adventure land....then i will believe it.

disney has shelved, slashed, and downsized their projects so much that in recent years that its now up to them to convince me...not vice versa

FYI,

You can see the pictures of the steelwork being put up, including coaster supports for the hills. It's pretty obvious that the coaster ride is going into place from the latest pictures. It's much more than just groundwork at this point since the structure itself is going up.

 

[lockedoutlogic]

FYI,

You can see the pictures of the steelwork being put up, including coaster supports for the hills. It's pretty obvious that the coaster ride is going into place from the latest pictures. It's much more than just groundwork at this point since the structure itself is going up.

That's good...much has changed over the last few months then.

I am excited for that...should prove to be a nice addition.


Overall though...I still think the entire expansion will be underwhelming as a whole.

 

[DCTooTall]

That's good...much has changed over the last few months then.

I am excited for that...should prove to be a nice addition.


Overall though...I still think the entire expansion will be underwhelming as a whole.

I could go both ways on this expansion. If you compare it to a lot of what we saw in the parks in the 80's and 90's... I can see it being (by itself), rather underwhelming.

if however you compare it to what we've seen in the past 10years at the parks, I can see it as being a good sign of a potential change in philosophy.


As I mentioned in another thread in this forum, I think that in many ways Harry Potter (And now Comcast's ownership of the parks and the change in philosophy they have vs. GE/Blackstone) has a net-positive influence on what we'll see at the Florida parks for the time being. GE/Blackstone was content to just wring the money out of the Universal Parks and spend just the bare minimum needed to maintain their property and attractions. Disney has had the same mentality over the past 10 years or so. Once Universal started investing money to expand their park, followed by Comcast's decision to continue investing money back into the parks to improve the experiences instead of just maintaining them.... We have seen Disney start to have a change in their own mentality towards their own parks.


After Harry Potter opened, We all saw the "What will Disney do to respond?" posts, stories, and questions... as well as the "FLE isn't a proper response to Harry Potter" posts. (Not to mention the comments when the Avatar license was announced) In My Opinion, I don't think people were seeing the much more important and telling changes that were starting to happen. We are seeing Disney's upper management in Burbank starting to realize they can't just sit on their ***** anymore and ignore the Florida parks. We are seeing money being invested back into the resort beyond some fresh paint and new items to sell us. They still have a long way to go before we see if this is more than just a short-term knee-jerk reaction however.... but I do see it as a potential realization that they need a return to some of the things that made the Parks the cash cow's they are.

 

[lockedoutlogic]

I could go both ways on this expansion. If you compare it to a lot of what we saw in the parks in the 80's and 90's... I can see it being (by itself), rather underwhelming.

if however you compare it to what we've seen in the past 10years at the parks, I can see it as being a good sign of a potential change in philosophy.


As I mentioned in another thread in this forum, I think that in many ways Harry Potter (And now Comcast's ownership of the parks and the change in philosophy they have vs. GE/Blackstone) has a net-positive influence on what we'll see at the Florida parks for the time being. GE/Blackstone was content to just wring the money out of the Universal Parks and spend just the bare minimum needed to maintain their property and attractions. Disney has had the same mentality over the past 10 years or so. Once Universal started investing money to expand their park, followed by Comcast's decision to continue investing money back into the parks to improve the experiences instead of just maintaining them.... We have seen Disney start to have a change in their own mentality towards their own parks.


After Harry Potter opened, We all saw the "What will Disney do to respond?" posts, stories, and questions... as well as the "FLE isn't a proper response to Harry Potter" posts. (Not to mention the comments when the Avatar license was announced) In My Opinion, I don't think people were seeing the much more important and telling changes that were starting to happen. We are seeing Disney's upper management in Burbank starting to realize they can't just sit on their ***** anymore and ignore the Florida parks. We are seeing money being invested back into the resort beyond some fresh paint and new items to sell us. They still have a long way to go before we see if this is more than just a short-term knee-jerk reaction however.... but I do see it as a potential realization that they need a return to some of the things that made the Parks the cash cow's they are.

i agree with everything you said....except i'm unconvinced on the bold passage...

i still see business as usual since they put the breaks on real development at WDW...which was probably a year or so before the opening of animal kingdom when they decided to practically stop the park at 50% of its design

 

[Peter Pirate 2]

What is sad is that current Disney is able to market their magic-less crap to the public (us) with such success.

That people continue to spend these sums on a theme park, in the economy we've had is truly sad.

It used to be them parks were occasional alternatives to real vacations for families like the beach, our cities and their museums, the mountains, the lake, etc. But at some point people got lazy and bought into the crappola that it was Disney supplying the magic - which and always was BS. The magic has always been created by the family.

But now people scrimp and save and mortgage so that the can ride Space Mtn. for the 200th time. And the funny thing is, if you actually people watch at Disney, few people and especially the kids, seem to be actually having that much fun!

So these prices are outrageous and I can tell you personally that if our Disney rewards card fails to generate enough to pay for our tickets next year it will be adios Disney after Nearly 20 years of AP's ... And Disney won't care even a little bit.

 

[lockedoutlogic]

Jeez, Pete...

Why did you have to be so accurate and bum me out?

I like to be all positive and uplifting here...everybody knows that

You can't put a price on magic, baby

 

[DCTooTall]

They still have a long way to go before we see if this is more than just a short-term knee-jerk reaction however.

i agree with everything you said....except i'm unconvinced on the bold passage...

i still see business as usual since they put the breaks on real development at WDW...which was probably a year or so before the opening of animal kingdom when they decided to practically stop the park at 50% of its design

Sounds like you pretty much agree with this line, in that you are seeing it as a short term knee-jerk type reaction.

Personally, I'm hopefull that it's not, but They are going to have to do more then just announce plans to prove to me that it's not. Pleasure Island/Hyperion Wharf and many other "recent" announcements that have never come to fruition are why I'm not ready to announce that they have definitely turned the page as it were.

 

[lockedoutlogic]

They still have a long way to go before we see if this is more than just a short-term knee-jerk reaction however.



Sounds like you pretty much agree with this line, in that you are seeing it as a short term knee-jerk type reaction.

Personally, I'm hopefull that it's not, but They are going to have to do more then just announce plans to prove to me that it's not. Pleasure Island/Hyperion Wharf and many other "recent" announcements that have never come to fruition are why I'm not ready to announce that they have definitely turned the page as it were.

I'm 90% in agreement with you...EXCEPT on the knee jerk...

I see no real reaction at all from WDW. The fact that they basically dismantled PI and have no interest in spending a cent to redo it - or are clueless on how to redo it...proves to me they care even less than ever what the competitiors are doing.

City Walk is a better designed "entertainment district". And granted...neither blow the doors off the profits for Uni or Disney...but the fact they took a large portion of their direct counter to Citywalk offline shows they couldn't care less...to me.

As far as what they are being "credited" for as "responses" by most...including that ny times article that was non-insightful and generally sub caliber for the name that came out this week...look at them honestly.

Fantasyland is being reported to be about half the final bill of the original 750-ish million bucks...lastet guess has been around 400...and they were playing with house money.
Fantasyland is probably the most solid area of any disney park to do any type of renovation. It's market is based on 5 year olds and disney nostalgia and there is almost no conceivable way you can screw it up to the point where it isn't packed....short of making the castle look like the watergate hotel (which is the ugliest building ever conceived).
House money...and a slashed budget to boot....real bold, Disney

And the avatar thing...well...that's somewhat bold i guess. but they are using a movie that was heavily overated/ over grossing and i would bet that some of the sequel money is being invested by Cameron as his part of the "partnership" for development and/or construction.

And they know that the sequels will make a billion + each...even if they are (likely) trash...because that's what all these movies tend to do now...except john carter...which brings my final point.

These construction budgets are not massive...and carter proves it.

The fact that the movie cost probably close to 300 mil to make...it was apparently bad from the get go...they still kept in production...and then they shrugged off the write down in 5 days with out even a blink...shows just how much money a company of this size has to work with and how much they COULD invest if they deemed it prudent.

but themepark rides don't make money (never really did)....a new park used to...but even that is running into the saturation wall.

The fact is that disney knows more than anybody that since they have their brand and nostalgia in their corner....their business is all but guaranteed. They don't need to build a new rollercoaster each year like a six flags. They do some redevelopment for PR window dressing...but in the end new rides only erode profit. Look at how they have handled mgm since its opening...every addition is 5 years apart and is like arm twisting "alright...we'll give you something else - now get off our backs" But in the end the park is still a half dayer for most. Disney can do that and not suffer...because they are at saturation: supply is usually even with demand...its static.

Universal and SeaWorld are in a different boat entirely...as they haven't hit the saturation point that disney seemed to have run into since about 2000. And the statistics bear that out...disney can't realistically expect the average length of stay to increase at this point...and that is what would move the bar on further expansion.
Alot of that is that because americans are trained not to believe in vacation...which is self destructive and ridiculous...but alot is also that there is a point of "enough is enough" with disney. 7 Days has statically played out as the average "breaking point" with travelers to WDW...and that is one of the things that failed with animal kingdom...it didn't move the bar that much...if i remember correctly the average was 6 or so before and about 7 after...which was not the goal.

I am an frequent traveler and have had many great trips of late...but towards the end even I have had enough. It must be nature...there's only so many character meals and trips around world showcase i can take.

So i see no kneejerk based on all the above...investment without revenue streams (which most themepark additions are) doesn't add to profitability for WDW...which means it will continue to be done to minimum levels.

They would have to max out and crank with ridiculous profits for alot to be put back in the parks at this point....and since the last couple of booms were fueled by bubble money that didnt exist and the masses seem to finally be understanding not to trust the banker behind the curtain (an underwater mortgage will do that to you)...its probably not going to happen for a longtime...maybe ever.

I see WDW locked into "maintenance mode" for the forseeable future...

As figment - ironically - would tell you: There's no spark.

 

[Mouseaholic!!!]

In 2011 we had one chance for a holiday. My family got together, we supplemented with Mom's favorite daytime nurses and setb aside 2 weeks for a holiday.

Everyone expected a dazzling trip to WDW. After all, DH is a 35 year castmember so the silver pass and other discounts would make is far mire affordable. Those discounts DO make a Disney trip easier.

However, I looked around. Guess what I found? A 12 night Caribbean cruise, exceptional af-facing suite cabin. Include the gratuities and the excursions we took, and this 12 night holiday cost LESS than our last 8 night Disney trip with all the castmember discounts.

Disney's future challengessy not be exclusively US or even in the Orlando. There is a big bright world out there......well maintained, customer service like Disney used to offer before staff cutbacks.

Disney showed everyone the way as they took the less expensive options.

Aw heck. Disney won't care until they see a drop in gate numbers.

 

[mjstaceyuofm]

I see WDW locked into "maintenance mode" for the forseeable future...

You know, I'd be happy with this if they actually did the maintenance the way you and I and a lot of others think they should do maintenance... Sadly, as Kevin Yee has stated on many occasions, their version of maintenance has been "declining by degrees" for some time now.

 

[lockedoutlogic]

You know, I'd be happy with this if they actually did the maintenance the way you and I and a lot of others think they should do maintenance... Sadly, as Kevin Yee has stated on many occasions, their version of maintenance has been "declining by degrees" for some time now.

By maintenance...i of course mean...nothing. The least possible without OSHA and negative press.

 

[padawans]

From what I can tell, DL has basically decided that they have more AP holders than the park can handle. There choices are (1) limit the number of AP holders at current prices or (2) raise the prices until a certain % of AP holders drop out.

In addition, if you look at the prices, even the 3-day hopper ticket is almost $250. To have a season pass (even limited days) cheaper than a 3-day hopper.

I would bet that the # of drop-outs will actually be less than what they anticipate. Lots of people will ***** and complain but will still re-up their passes.

It will be interesting to see what WDW rates raise, but I think the circumstances are different there. We are taking our first trip to DL this year, and was shrewd enough to pre-buy my tickets and since I expect we will very rarely if ever go to DLR again. A WDW increase of this magnitude would really cut back on our trips.

I agree with this. The last time I was Dl was 3 years ago. It was a Friday mid October, and not Columbus day weekend. It was shoulder to shoulder people. You could not move. It was worse than the time a tried to go Christmas day. I asked a cm what was going on she said many of the passholders are blacked out on Saturdays so they come on Fridays instead. I haven't been back since. I am a five hour drive from Dl, but I would rather fly across the country and visit WDW. Anybody that thinks the crowds are wdw are bad should spend a day at Dl. It will change your mind.

 

[Roythe13th]

People will say the huge price increase at DLR is because of the AP problem and Disney probably is okay for that notion to spread but honestly, it's not true. Disney raised the prices out of greed. Pure and simple.

I have a DLR Deluxe pass that ends next week. I have it because I go to S Cal about twice a year. I have friends in LA and almost all of them have a DLR AP. When I go, I'm usually in the parks a full 2 days and the rest of the time, I'm there just for a few hours. Sometimes in the day but mostly at night. But I'm still a tourist in a sense that I stay at a hotel (mostly) and eat on property most of the time that I'm at the park and the place is still special enough to me where I buy souvenirs. The AP just makes sense to me.

But I am not renewing. I will go back to LA in October and see Carsland and spend a day at Disney but will probably not buy a ticket but go with my friend who works for Disney and go as his guest. Then I may be saying goodbye to Disneyland for awhile. Because my LA friends have an advantage over me as AP holders (not just living closer to the park). They live in California and can take advantage of the payment plan Disney offers and I can't. The payment plan is how I know Disney actually does not want a decrease in APs. Sure, at first a 150 dollar increase sounds huge but if you are on the payment plan, its just an extra $12.50. Most people can find an extra $12.50 a month without much sacrifice. So I don't think AP numbers will change much. If they would let me have the payment plan, I might renew. Again, I'm not going to be able to go there every weekend to help crowd the park. The AP just works better for me in my situation but the price increase is too much.

If Disney wants to bring in more tourist dollars and less APs, they would have raised the AP prices like they did but also get rid of the payment plan. And raise the one day tickets and multiple day park hoppers only modestly. Their hubris thinking they can build a second park so cheaply and then when it fails, expect the public to subsidize its transformation is insulting.

 

[Peter Pirate 2]

The payment plan is how I know Disney actually does not want a decrease in APs. Sure, at first a 150 dollar increase sounds huge but if you are on the payment plan, its just an extra $12.50. Most people can find an extra $12.50 a month without much sacrifice. So I don't think AP numbers will change much. If they would let me have the payment plan, I might renew. Again, I'm not going to be able to go there every weekend to help crowd the park. The AP just works better for me in my situation but the price increase is too much.

If Disney wants to bring in more tourist dollars and less APs, they would have raised the AP prices like they did but also get rid of the payment plan. And raise the one day tickets and multiple day park hoppers only modestly. Their hubris thinking they can build a second park so cheaply and then when it fails, expect the public to subsidize its transformation is insulting.

What is sad is that people would even consider financing a theme park ticket. If you can afford the trip, fine. But don't "mortgage" weekend entertainment ... That's a big part of America's problem.

 

[DCTooTall]

What is sad is that people would even consider financing a theme park ticket. If you can afford the trip, fine. But don't "mortgage" weekend entertainment ... That's a big part of America's problem.

For a local, I don't see that as that big a deal. From a budget standpoint, I'd see it in the same league as a Netflix type account where you are spending X amount Monthly for weekend entertainment. Movies or themepark, they both would be things you might enjoy partaking in during your free time.

For those not-so-local who wouldn't get the same use every month out of it however, Agreed. Paying monthly for a year for only a few trips during that timeframe may not make sense. (I'm also not familiar with Disney's Monthly plan details. Is there any surcharge or interest charged? or is it the same net sum as paying in full one time?)

 

[lockedoutlogic]

For a local, I don't see that as that big a deal. From a budget standpoint, I'd see it in the same league as a Netflix type account where you are spending X amount Monthly for weekend entertainment. Movies or themepark, they both would be things you might enjoy partaking in during your free time.

For those not-so-local who wouldn't get the same use every month out of it however, Agreed. Paying monthly for a year for only a few trips during that timeframe may not make sense. (I'm also not familiar with Disney's Monthly plan details. Is there any surcharge or interest charged? or is it the same net sum as paying in full one time?)

Well...
First, I believe that disney's payment plans are no interest...a simple installment plan with no fees.

so form that standpoint - this particular situation doesnt indicate the huge american spending/credit crash course problem...which is the absolute biggest problem that this country faces - if you look at it objectively.

however, if someone defers their AP payments - and disney poses no risk to do it because they just have the tickets deactivated if the payments are not paid - and use that to circumvent their credit unworthiness in other areas - like if they run a revolving balance monthly balance of 8,000 on a visa along with 3800 on the banana republic charge and a 780 monthly itunes bill- then it can be part of the problem. I think the deal is direct autopayment as well...so disney doesn't have to manage the payment plans except in the case of funds rejection...and even then it might just trigger automatic deactivation.

If they payment is exploited to result in more free wheelin' spending...then it can be seen as bad.
If it is a no-interest way of budgeting - like my dvc dues that i don't even notice being automatically withdrawn - then no...not really bad.