Will VWL prices drop once Contemp. Vil. go online?

[gblast123]

I was looking at the various resales and I was thinking of buying additional VWL when a thought hit me.

Will the VWL resales drop in price once the Kingdom Villas (Contemp. Villas) go on-line?

The various arguments and factors are set forth below:

Up until now, VWL was the DVC resort which had the best proximity to Magic Kingdom.

There is no longer any secret to the fact that Kingdom Villas are going to be sold, probably sometime this summer.

I spoke to a few brokers who were not sure about the effect on VWL resales with the Kingdom Tower (or whatever it will be called). They all agreed that it will cause a decrease, but how much or how fast, nobody can be sure.

Certainly monorail access (this is not certain...although it appears highly probable) would trump anything else (I know...some people like the slow boat ride...). But pricing per night is still unknown...although everyone is betting that it will be premium compared to all the other resorts.

So, in summary, Location and Newness, and Monorail access seem to heavily favor Kingdom Tower as a more desireable resort versus VWL. If there is a large point differential per night, then that would weigh heavily in favor of VWL.

My opinion: VWL resale contracts will drop in price for awhile...even if the nightly price per point at KT is much higher...I think that the Location, Newness and especially Monorail acces will make KT so much more attractive that no-one will be interested in buying VWL points. VWL exclusivity for the Magic Kingdom will disappear and with that will go the premium pricing.

There are no right or wrong answers to this one...unless you have a crystal ball.

What do you think? Should I buy VWL now or wait?

 

[bookwormde]

I do not know if anyone will sell for that reason , but in deciding where to buy in I eliminated VWL just for that reason even though I like it's character. I also figured that once KT was operating it might be easier to get 7 month reservations at VWL.

 

[gblast123]

I do not know if anyone will sell for that reason , but in deciding where to buy in I eliminated VWL just for that reason even though I like it's character. I also figured that once KT was operating it might be easier to get 7 month reservations at VWL.

My thoughts exactly!!!

David

 

[gblast123]

This is from the Orlando Sentinal article regarding Kingdom Tower-

"A new swimming pool, for instance, will be large enough for 180 people; go as deep as 4 feet, 11 inches; and feature two hot tubs and a 104-foot-long water slide. There will be two tennis courts, two shuffleboard courts and two boccie ball courts. A barbecue pavilion will have about 490 square feet of covered area and a pair of picnic tables."

Might be a little bit of a wait list for these picnic tables if there are only two!!

 

[4Pluto]

I guess that depends on how many people buy VWL for proximity to MK. Personally, I bought VWL because of the theme. If anything, AK would have had a greater impact on my decision; if it had been available when I bought in, I would probably have all my points there.

 

[DVCLiz]

While all of your points would be valid in a market driven by consumer demand, you aren't taking into accounnt ROFR. Disney will continue to set the price for VWL just as they've been doing since it originally sold out.

Do I think some people will be much more interested in Kingdom Towers? Sure. But there are others like me, who far prefer the Wilderness Lodge, and who don't see the Kingdom Towers as appealing at all.

I don't think VWL prices will change in any substantial way at all.

 

[Chickkypoo]

I personally bought into VWL for the theming as well. If I bought due to location, I would have picked something closer to Epcot, but I really like the feel of the VWL.

 

[Inkmahm]

I guess that depends on how many people buy VWL for proximity to MK. Personally, I bought VWL because of the theme. If anything, AK would have had a greater impact on my decision; if it had been available when I bought in, I would probably have all my points there.

Same here. That's how we ended up owning VWL- we love the theme. The fact that it is located only a boatride away from MK is just a bonus. We love AKV, too.

 

[Brian Noble]

you aren't taking into accounnt ROFR. Disney will continue to set the price for VWL just as they've been doing since it originally sold out.

But, Disney is not immune to market pressures either. For example, many have speculated that the OKW extension was offered only because the demand for the shorter horizon at OKW was drying up given SSR. Under this theory, whether individual owners took the extension or not was immaterial, because now everything Disney ROFRs gets "extended" (at no cost to Disney) and resold at a higher price point.

Clever, that Mouse.

 

[chalee94]

While all of your points would be valid in a market driven by consumer demand, you aren't taking into accounnt ROFR. Disney will continue to set the price for VWL just as they've been doing since it originally sold out.

DVC is a profit-driven segment of the disney corp - they are still operating in "a market driven by consumer demand." disney can't "set" a price independent of total demand.

if there is a drop in demand, DVC won't be able to resell their ROFR'd VWL inventory as easily...if they can't continue sell it at the same price levels, they won't keep ROFRing it at the same price levels.

(saying this, i have no idea if KT will make much of a difference in demand for VWL. i suspect each will have an extremely different "vibe" despite a similar location.)

but there is a popular fiction that ROFR is intended to "prop up resale prices" that is confusing cause and effect IMO.

 

[keishashadow]

Same here. That's how we ended up owning VWL- we love the theme. The fact that it is located only a boatride away from MK is just a bonus. We love AKV, too.

for us, it was the determining factor (we bought sight-unseen ); so glad we did-beautiful & peaceful retreat after the parks.

imo, unless they designate the CRV pool as a non-hopping one; just another reason to stay @ WLV, best of both worlds.

 

[icouldlivethere]

I think the 2 resorts will appeal to different people for different reasons. Some people will prefer the laid back outdoorsy isolated feel of the VWL with the slow boat ride and consider that a more relaxing vacation while others will prefer the hubbub of activity and being in the middle of things with quick access to Magic Kingdom that KTR will bring.

We just recently bought into and are awaiting closing on a small BWV contract. We chose BWV because of its location and being in the middle of things. Before this we have spent many vacations at FW both camping and in the cabins. I love FW for completely different reasons. I love the laid back getting away from it all feel of it and considered the slow boat ride to Magic Kingdom very relaxing and enjoyable.

I think VWL will still have its appeal and the smallness of it will keep it in demand.

 

[wildernessDad]

I love the theme of Wilderness Lodge. I get a great feeling walking around the place. It's hard to describe. That is one of the reasons why I believe that the price will not go down that much.

Also, you are not taking into consideration that VWL is a MUCH smaller DVC resort.

 

[gblast123]

Just spoke to someone at DVC.

They cannot confirm or deny anything...even public filing records.

However, what is confirmed is that sales of AKV are off by a lot, since nobody can stay until May 09, until the new building is built.

There is only about a 2+ month inventory left of SSR, so that should be gone by June/early July.

Everyone is being encouraged to take vacations now, as they were told to expect a very busy summer.

Now to connect the above dots and make some assumptions -
Considering that SSR will be gone and not many people are rushing to buy the May 09 AKV contracts, the DVC sales reps will not have much to sell in July, UNLESS they sell CRV.

The 281 unit figure in the Sentinal is only the initial offering. If history is a guide, and CRV sells quickly, they will add phase II and phase III (same as BWV and OKW and SSR). We can safely guesss that there will be a resort as big, if not bigger than BWV or SSR.

When I asked his opinion as to what he would expect that a "hypothetical resort"'s effect would be on VWL, he felt that there would clearly be an effect, as some of the people on wait list for VWL points from DVC have already cancelled their wait list in response to the news reports. In addition, some un-sophisticated VWL owners called him to ask about "trading in VWL" for the new resort. He said there is still demand and a wait list, but he expects that any "hypothetical resort", if is becomes a reality would lessen demand for add-ons, not only at VWL, but any of the high demand resorts like BCV and BWV.

Clearly, from his perspective there has already been some effect. When I asked his opinion on the resale market, he said that he doesn't deal with that and would not render any opinions on how such would affect the resale market.

We should know answers in about two months or so when SSR sells out.

I hope this is informative and useful. For myself, I own at VWL and was going to buy 2 more contracts, but after hearing about this, well...I am going to wait. I don't see VWL getting any more crowded.

David

 

[gblast123]

I had another thought.

If you were buying now, which would you pick, KT or CRV, or VWL?

Personally, I will pick CRV because of the purported access to the monorail.

In fact, I would pick CRV over BWV and BCV as the first stop from monorail leaving would be the transportation center, then to epcot, and the first stop leaving Magic kingdom would be CRV.

I suspect that it will be considered the best DVC resort of all, when it is done.

David

 

[DVC Mike]

While the location of VWL was one of the reasons I bought points there (the only MK DVC resort), the main reason is the magnificently rendered theme and the quiet, peaceful and romantic setting. I don't think KTR will come close to VWL when it comes to theme.

Once KTR goes on sale, I will add-on points there but still keep my VWL points.

Of course, not everyone is like me and there could be a small drop in VWL resales due to KTR. I can see folks who are interested in VWL primarily because it's a MK resort want the better-located KTR and the monorail access.

 

[ZekeKelso]

What do you think? Should I buy VWL now or wait?

I *think* you misunderstand the popularity of VWL. I think most people buy because they like VWL - not because they want the easiest access to MK, and VWL happens to be it.

Even if there is something built into VWL's price for having "best access to the MK", it's small. There just isn't a huge difference in price between VWL and OKW - and most of that difference is probably due to small size (supply/demand etc.)

I think the bigger impact is what KT will have on DVC in general. Will there be about the same overall demand for DVC - but shifted from existing resorts to KT (which would tend to drive the price of all non-KT resorts down). Or will there be tons of new people wanting to get into DVC, and see the resale market as a cheaper way to get to the KT, increasing overall prices.

Personally, I don't think there is going to be a dramatic shift either way. Just look at what prices are today. If you think VWL points are worth what is being charged, go ahead and buy them. Don't stress about where they may go in the future.

 

[CarolMN]

Just spoke to someone at DVC.

They cannot confirm or deny anything...even public filing records.

However, what is confirmed is that sales of AKV are off by a lot, since nobody can stay until May 09, until the new building is built.

There is only about a 2+ month inventory left of SSR, so that should be gone by June/early July.

Everyone is being encouraged to take vacations now, as they were told to expect a very busy summer.

Now to connect the above dots and make some assumptions -
Considering that SSR will be gone and not many people are rushing to buy the May 09 AKV contracts, the DVC sales reps will not have much to sell in July, UNLESS they sell CRV.

The 281 unit figure in the Sentinal is only the initial offering. If history is a guide, and CRV sells quickly, they will add phase II and phase III (same as BWV and OKW and SSR). We can safely guesss that there will be a resort as big, if not bigger than BWV or SSR.

When I asked his opinion as to what he would expect that a "hypothetical resort"'s effect would be on VWL, he felt that there would clearly be an effect, as some of the people on wait list for VWL points from DVC have already cancelled their wait list in response to the news reports. In addition, some un-sophisticated VWL owners called him to ask about "trading in VWL" for the new resort. He said there is still demand and a wait list, but he expects that any "hypothetical resort", if is becomes a reality would lessen demand for add-ons, not only at VWL, but any of the high demand resorts like BCV and BWV.

Clearly, from his perspective there has already been some effect. When I asked his opinion on the resale market, he said that he doesn't deal with that and would not render any opinions on how such would affect the resale market.

We should know answers in about two months or so when SSR sells out.

I hope this is informative and useful. For myself, I own at VWL and was going to buy 2 more contracts, but after hearing about this, well...I am going to wait. I don't see VWL getting any more crowded.

David

Won't the DVC villas at the Grand Californian be ready soon? Maybe that is why DVC expects it to be a busy summer. There seems to be a lot of demand for that and IMHO, the California DVC villas really won't be much competition for sales at AKV or SSR - different groups of people interested due to location.

I don't think the Contemporary Villas will be ready for sale for at least a year, maybe more.

 

[alldiz]

Thanks for the heads up......I'll be on the lookout for some "cheap"
WLV resale points once CRV is announced

Seriously.....while I definately want to try CRV......I won't ever buy there.
I don't like the modern theming.....simple as that.
Kerri

 

[gjw007]

I had another thought.

If you were buying now, which would you pick, KT or CRV, or VWL?

Personally, I will pick CRV because of the purported access to the monorail.

In fact, I would pick CRV over BWV and BCV as the first stop from monorail leaving would be the transportation center, then to epcot, and the first stop leaving Magic kingdom would be CRV.

I suspect that it will be considered the best DVC resort of all, when it is done.

David

This is too subjective and too broad a statement as the Contemporary has absolutely no appeal to me and may not for others as well. That might change if I ever stayed there. The best resort is not one that others think is the best but the one that you like the most and enjoy your vacation at. I'm not a fan of the one-size-fits-all approach and enjoy the differences in the resorts. I purchased SSR but of all the DVC resorts, I like VWL the best and it has nothing to do with being close to the Magic Kingdom. From my perspective, once on Disney property I am close enough to all the theme parks. The magic of VWL is in the theming especially at Christmas time. I never thought the boat ride was inconvenient but part of the enjoyment of staying at VWL. If I were to buy again, it would be at VWL.