Will this end up being the pandemic that cried wolf?

[xuxa777]

Nope, you aren't understanding what I'm saying.

The food doesn't matter. I'm saying 1 of whatever 100 things I give you is poisonous, would you eat them? Yes or no?

Yes the food doesn't matter

 

[wombat_5606]

Yes the food doesn't matter

Then you are just trying to avoid the question.

 

[DisneyJamieCA]

No we did not. We did what the original lock-down was supposed to accomplish: spread out the infections and not overwhelm hospitals. Somehow this has changed into preventing any new cases.

No, that is not at all how this works. Nobody is trying to prevent new cases and nobody has ever claimed that. They are continuing the plan of not overwhelming the hospitals. Slowly reopening things will lead to new cases and people have to be ok with that. The hospitals will be able to handle that case load. Eventually we all get it, there is a vaccine or it dies out. The key word EVENTUALLY. Opening up everything right now, with no rules in place will create the same exact spike we were trying to avoid 5 weeks ago. And then yes, the last 5 weeks will have been a waste of time for all of us.

And please be clear on what I asked, instead of quoting one part of a sentence that fits your narrative. What that complete sentence said is if we open up everything now, the last 5 weeks will have been a waste. Which will be a fact. I have in no way said we currently have wasted 5 weeks.

 

[cabanafrau]

The only places seriously that are seriously struggling with it you can count on one hand and they are all declining, even but it is still bad.

And so blithely dismissed as being able to "count on one hand" and "all declining".

Unfortunately I don't think we've hit meaningful decline yet in the metro area where I live. Bad doesn't even begin to describe what this all means in our area. I am unbelievably blessed that at this point none of my nearest and dearest have had a really unpleasant visit from this beast. I have lost track of how many friends and coworkers don't share my good fortune in that regard. This is definitely not the ordinary course of what we are accustomed to as the result of flu season -- and it's really beyond offensive to spew that garbage in polite and civil conversation. We're not unaware of the fact people can and do die from the effects of flu every year, we've seen here it many times. No one I know remembers something like this monster.

Not to be forgotten are many people I know, including some of my nearest and dearest, who find themselves scrambling for sustaining their financial circumstances. Prior to all of this I participated in a network of several community organizations that try to give a safety net of sorts to people with different needs. I had to stop participating in some of yesterday's meetings because the scope of problems got to be overwhelming to even try to get a handle on. Two people very close to me are fairly certain at this point that their businesses will not survive. Even in their devastation they don't suggest that there was any real way they could have tried to keep operating in the face of an unseen killer. My husband's job was about to end as this whole mess started. It's still going to end, the new end date simply hasn't been provided to us yet. He had people who expressed interest in hiring him and couldn't complete the process because things shutdown. That's all upended and unknown. Is our fallback position viable anymore? Impossible to tell at this point.

At least our area is only one of those that can be "counted on one hand".

 

[hopemax]

"Flattening the Curve" became the rallying cry, but it was always about buying our doctors and scientists time. Not necessarily for a vaccine that may never happen, but for securing supplies, ramping up testing and contract tracing (seriously, we've been talking about trying to be South Korea not Italy for weeks, now it's moving goal posts?), the development of treatment protocols, and simple understanding about what this virus is and does. Learning what does and doesn't work. We are still learning about the type of damage this virus does to the human body. First it was lungs, then heart, then kidneys, now it's blood clotting and increased stroke risk. Understanding these things, leads to better outcomes. If people mistakenly thought this was all about hospital capacity, that's on them. Flatten the Curve was the most "sellable" hashtagy soundbytey, headline making, Facebook posting aspect of it. But I thought we are supposed to look beyond the Facebook posts and click-bait headlines from our fake news media.

And as for "no new cases." The math of this virus, due to the contagious nature hasn't changed. The introductions that resulted in transmission chains that got us to where we are, started with dozens of people, primarily located on the coasts. If people think we can have thousands of infections, scattered in every state and in most counties, let people go back to their movements in the volume necessary to keep businesses viable and people employed, and keep infections at a level where the serious cases don't overwhelm hospitals in the future... I get the feeling that some people think we've seen the worst of this. All we've seen is a pre-show. This can get just as bad as it was before, or worse. All it takes in 8 weeks of uncontrolled community spread.

No, this doesn't mean people staying home forever, but it has to be slow, deliberate and starting from a lower threshold of infections than where we currently are.

 

[DisneyJamieCA]

I listened to an interview with a top Swedish scientist lat night. He said the only thing America is doing is delaying the inevitable. People who are susceptible will die regardless. Doing a lock-down to stop this virus is like conducting an air war with no air force. He estimated Sweden will reach herd immunity in less than 3 weeks.

This may very well be true. Maybe everybody who was going to die from it will still die from it. What he hasn't accounted for is all the unintended deaths that will come from overwhelming the hospitals with spikes, that could have otherwise been prevented. You do realize there are now rules on how EMTs can treat cardiac patients in the field in NYC. Patients that would otherwise get treatment that very well may save their lives. Think about that exponentially across this country.

Also, Sweden can't claim anything about herd immunity since nobody knows what that looks like yet. We don't even know if herd immunity will exist with this.

Lastly, people need to stop comparing the US to Sweden (both directions). They have a different population size, healthcare system and general ability to self monitor. First, they are taking some shut down measures, just not all. More people live on by themselves and there are less multi-generational households. More people telecommuted before this all started. It would be better to compare it another European nation of similar size and demographics and if you do, Sweden's numbers are horrible. However, nobody can say right now if they made the right choice or the wrong one. Time will tell. But they aren't at a place yet where they can claim victory in the smarter choice.

 

[wombat_5606]

Lastly, people need to stop comparing the US to Sweden (both directions). They have a different population size, healthcare system and general ability to self monitor. First, they are taking some shut down measures, just not all. More people live on by themselves and there are less multi-generational households. More people telecommuted before this all started. It would be better to compare it another European nation of similar size and demographics and if you do, Sweden's numbers are horrible. However, nobody can say right now if they made the right choice or the wrong one. Time will tell. But they aren't at a place yet where they can claim victory in the smarter choice.

So true!

Also, guess what? Their healthcare is government funded and available for all citizens!!!

 

[xuxa777]

So true!

Also, guess what? Their healthcare is government funded and available for all citizens!!!

Fascinating that people say don't compare the US to Sweden , it is so different, but immediately extrapolate what happened in New York City to a smaller city in middle America.

 

[sam_gordon]

Nope, you aren't understanding what I'm saying.

The food doesn't matter. I'm saying 1 of whatever 100 things I give you is poisonous, would you eat them? Yes or no?

Wouldn't the more realistic (in regards to dying from COVID) question be...

"You're hungry. There is no other food around. Here is 1000 apples (or peanuts or skittles). One of them is poisonous. Would you eat them? Yes or no?"

 

[Snowysmom]

I know this isn't the most popular thought out there but as well as being concerned about covid I am concerned about the collateral damage the shutdown has had. I heard a heart breaking story of a mother sitting on the steps of a local post office begging people for food to feed her kids. I am sure she is not the only one. I also read that alot of food banks are close to running out of food and are concerned that they won't be able to help the people who so desperately need it.
We need to balance our concern for covid with our concern about working families, the economy, and having people working so they can care for themselves and their families. Throwing money at the problem is not the answer. At this point my great grandchildren will be paying for all this. Many states unemployment websites are overwhelmed and people are waiting weeks for benefits and they don't have the time to wait weeks for money. Plus many states are running out of unemployment money. I understand that some people do not want to end the shutdown but if you are not comfortable leaving home you don't have to. Please do whatever makes you comfortable. But, we do need to get the economy going again soon. If we don't there will be nothing left to come back from. A balancing of concerns is needed.

 

[DisneyJamieCA]

Fascinating that people say don't compare the US to Sweden , it is so different, but immediately extrapolate what happened in New York City to a smaller city in middle America.

If our states closed borders like other countries are doing, it would be different. Seriously, if CA closed our borders to other states right now, I wouldn't be so nervous about what other states are doing. We've been doing it right and it shows in our numbers. The last thing I want is some super spreader from GA to come here in two weeks and undo all our hard work because they are being dumb about their decisions there.

Also, you're comparing apples to oranges. I clearly laid out how the US and Sweden are different and it's not just population. Last I checked, middle America and NYC are on the same health care system. At the end of day, as a whole, they act in the same selfish manner. We are a nation all about "me" - and that's both sides of this coin. Middle America has less population, but are not any better prepared to handle a spike, even if it's smaller in numbers.

 

[dvcgirl67]

Lastly, people need to stop comparing the US to Sweden (both directions). They have a different population size, healthcare system and general ability to self monitor. First, they are taking some shut down measures, just not all. More people live on by themselves and there are less multi-generational households. More people telecommuted before this all started. It would be better to compare it another European nation of similar size and demographics and if you do, Sweden's numbers are horrible. However, nobody can say right now if they made the right choice or the wrong one. Time will tell. But they aren't at a place yet where they can claim victory in the smarter choice.

Completely agree. For one thing, in Sweden, the citizens and businesses themselves are taking precautions. Also, we all know that this virus attacks each population differently. The Swedes are a far healthier population than what we have in the States. 48% of adults in Sweden have a healthy weight. 34% of adults are considered overweight (BMI 25-29.9). And 18% obese (BMI of 30-39.9).

In our nation, just 26% have a healthy weight. 33% are overweight, 38% are obese, and 8% are morbidly obese (BMI over 40). Those numbers alone are reason for us to not try and "herd immunity" our way through this thing. It would be so much more disastrous than what we're doing now.

 

[wombat_5606]

Fascinating that people say don't compare the US to Sweden , it is so different, but immediately extrapolate what happened in New York City to a smaller city in middle America.

Don't see anywhere I did that.

 

[cabanafrau]

If our states closed borders like other countries are doing, it would be different. Seriously, if CA closed our borders to other states right now, I wouldn't be so nervous about what other states are doing. We've been doing it right and it shows in our numbers. The last thing I want is some super spreader from GA to come here in two weeks and undo all our hard work because they are being dumb about their decisions there.

Also, you're comparing apples to oranges. I clearly laid out how the US and Sweden are different and it's not just population. Last I checked, middle America and NYC are on the same health care system. At the end of day, as a whole, they act in the same selfish manner. We are a nation all about "me" - and that's both sides of this coin. Middle America has less population, but are not any better prepared to handle a spike, even if it's smaller in numbers.

Funny how cities in Middle America with less population than NYC that suffer a spike wind up with some of the very same problems -- very clearly and tragically demonstrated by things like the scramble for capacity to handle the bodies.

 

[DisneyJamieCA]

I know this isn't the most popular thought out there but as well as being concerned about covid I am concerned about the collateral damage the shutdown has had. I heard a heart breaking story of a mother sitting on the steps of a local post office begging people for food to feed her kids. I am sure she is not the only one. I also read that alot of food banks are close to running out of food and are concerned that they won't be able to help the people who so desperately need it.
We need to balance our concern for covid with our concern about working families, the economy, and having people working so they can care for themselves and their families. Throwing money at the problem is not the answer. At this point my great grandchildren will be paying for all this. Many states unemployment websites are overwhelmed and people are waiting weeks for benefits and they don't have the time to wait weeks for money. Plus many states are running out of unemployment money. I understand that some people do not want to end the shutdown but if you are not comfortable leaving home you don't have to. Please do whatever makes you comfortable. But, we do need to get the economy going again soon. If we don't there will be nothing left to come back from. A balancing of concerns is needed.

All due respect, the last 44 pages have been discussing why some of us don't think it's as simple as this. Telling people who aren't comfortable leaving their home not do simply doesn't work. Most employers won't allow it unless mandated to.

We all agree the economy needs to reopen. It just needs to be done slowly, methodically and with research behind it. Simply opening it all right back up brings it's own host of issues.

 

[wombat_5606]

Wouldn't the more realistic (in regards to dying from COVID) question be...

"You're hungry. There is no other food around. Here is 1000 apples (or peanuts or skittles). One of them is poisonous. Would you eat them? Yes or no?"

I wouldn't, just like I'm not going to the grocery store.

 

[TLSnell1981]

Funny how cities in Middle America with less population than NYC that suffer a spike wind up with some of the very same problems -- very clearly and tragically demonstrated by things like the scramble for capacity to handle the bodies.

It's not just less population. There's a very different mentality in small towns.

 

[sam_gordon]

I wouldn't, just like I'm not going to the grocery store.

Ok. You're dead from hunger.

 

[TLSnell1981]

All due respect, the last 44 pages have been discussing why some of us don't think it's as simple as this. Telling people who aren't comfortable leaving their home not do simply doesn't work. Most employers won't allow it unless mandated to.

We all agree the economy needs to reopen. It just needs to be done slowly, methodically and with research behind it. Simply opening it all right back up brings it's own host of issues.

So we mandate everyone stays home until everybody is okay with it? I don't see where anyone is simply opening back up.

 

[wombat_5606]

Ok. You're dead from hunger.

Nope, not if you're comparing it to Covid.