Will this end up being the pandemic that cried wolf?

[cabanafrau]

Actually we have no idea yet!

Sweden has taken an entirely different approach and is therefore at an entirely different point in the process. Long after Sweden stops having deaths, the US will continue to have people die from Coronavirus because social distancing. Unless social distancing is taken all the way to a vaccine is just delaying many deaths.

I think somewhere numbers are probably being distributed for those waiting their turn to contract the virus. Number one is probably still available it you know someone who really hates to wait.

 

[kdonnel]

So, you can claim that Sweden's model is definitely the right way to do while, at the same time, admitting that we cannot know right now what works. Such a hypocrite.

I have never said their model is right. I have said it will be interesting to see which turns out to be correct.

Show me where I said Sweden was right.

 

[Disney Ron]

The countries handling these crisis the best....are almost exclusively led by women. Smart women. Angela Merkel, in particular, has done an amazing job as leader of a large western nation. She's a formally trained scientist. They started serology testing as soon as they locked down in preparation for re-opening their country. So...smart women leaders win.

Clockwise from top left: Germany's Angela Merkel, New Zealand's Jacinda Ardern, SIngapore's Halimah Yacoob, Taiwan's Tsai Ing-wen, Iceland's Katrín Jakobsdóttir, Denmark's Mette Frederiksen and Finland's Sanna Marin

WOW I'm moving to Finland.

 

[Praying Colonel]

Sweden's death rate/1 mil population is nearly 24% higher than the US. Put another way, if the US had the same death rate/million as Sweden, we'd have experienced an additional 10,000 or so deaths in the last 7 weeks. Imagine if that happened--we'd be talking about a bloodbath.

There are certain groups in this country who say we can't run our economy like Sweden's because their country isn't anything like the US, on many levels. I find it ironic that many of these same people want to be like Sweden when it comes to the coronavirus.

 

[CarolAnn856]

I have never said their model is right. I have said it will be interesting to see which turns out to be correct.

Show me where I said Sweden was right.

You don't need to type those specific words to see your viewpoint. It's abundantly clear. And if you try to claim that you never said exactly that so I must be wrong, well, we all know that's the kind of argument one makes when they can't make a real one.

 

[kdonnel]

You don't need to type those specific words to see your viewpoint. It's abundantly clear. And if you try to claim that you never said exactly that so I must be wrong, well, we all know that's the kind of argument one makes when they can't make a real one.

You are putting things in my mouth I have never said, imagining words that you think are there.

Please go back and only read the words I have typed.

 

[Colleen27]

Sweden's death rate/1 mil population is nearly 24% higher than the US. Put another way, if the US had the same death rate/million as Sweden, we'd have experienced an additional 10,000 or so deaths in the last 7 weeks. Imagine if that happened--we'd be talking about a bloodbath.

There are certain groups in this country who say we can't run our economy like Sweden's because their country isn't anything like the US, on many levels. I find it ironic that many of these same people want to be like Sweden when it comes to the coronavirus.

The thinking is that we're all going to get there eventually, which will likely be true if a vaccine isn't developed relatively quickly - the death rates in countries that went for aggressive lockdowns will catch up when those measures are relaxed. The question is who is going to have the "best" (least misery-producing, both from the virus and from the response) path through.

But I think you're right about comparing us to Sweden. There are too many other differences to try to draw parallels, just as there are with the Asian countries that have been more successful in controlling the virus. Despite their higher contagion and death rates, their medical system is not showing the strain ours is. That makes a "push through" approach more feasible there than it is here, where our medical system is collapsing from both the strain of COVID19 patients and the lack of revenue from other patients. And I think that's a risk that no one anticipated in the rush to flatten the curve - that by staying home and cancelling so much, we might end up reducing our medical system's capacity to respond and therefore will have to keep second and subsequent waves smaller and smaller because it will take fewer cases to produce the same level of strain on the remaining resources.

 

[Cannot_Wait_4Disney]

Actually we have no idea yet!

Sweden has taken an entirely different approach and is therefore at an entirely different point in the process. Long after Sweden stops having deaths, the US will continue to have people die from Coronavirus because social distancing. Unless social distancing is taken all the way to a vaccine is just delaying many deaths.

I am comparing Sweden to its similar Nordic neighbors. We certainly know enough to make a tentative judgement subject to change of course if new actual data comes in. But a hypothetical scenario someone pulls out of their rump is not new actual data.

 

[Heather07438]

Another aspect to consider is that we are already getting low on some necessary medications for treatment and uncertain when supply could catch back up. If we aren't careful in how we open to keep numbers low and a resurgence happens over the summer, there may very well be a common problem- lack of medicine to treat.

This is complex. There's many things to juggle.

 

[kdonnel]

I am comparing Sweden to its similar Nordic neighbors. We certainly know enough to make a tentative judgement subject to change of course if new actual data comes in. But a hypothetical scenario you pulled out of your hindquarters is not new actual data.

I am saying that Sweden has followed a different exposure path and as a result much more of their population has been exposed and as a result more have died.

Their Nordic neighbors have followed a shelter in place policy more like the US. As a result fewer people have been exposed and thus far fewer deaths.

At some point the shelter in place will be lifted. I believe that will be before a vaccine has been developed and administered to a necessary number. As a result more people will die.

Will those numbers result in a similar death toll? Only time will tell.

 

[SaintsManiac]

It’s been what, 5 weeks? 6 tops? I can only imagine what threads are posted in another 5.

 

[jiminyC_fan]

Yes, clearly this will be the pandemic that has cried wolf, because clearly the danger has passed, we know all there is to know, and there is virtually no danger to anyone who would have the right to expect to be considered worthwhile to continue living anyway. The folks of real importance can continue their work and earning in suitably safe surroundings with proper precautions, get access to testing and treatment if really needed, and contract out tasks that would expose them to unnecessary risk. Those who aren't of real importance should have planned better, known better and done more to position themselves better if they want to be considered worthy of continued existence.

Let's completely overlook we don't know yet if the worst is indeed over, if it's possible to have immunity or how long immunity lasts -- or if the immunity will provide protection from other mutations of the virus that someone doesn't have antibodies for. Let's not go looking too hard at some pesky unknowns about lingering significant side effects like lung damage, cognitive deficits and blood clots and how long those might last or whether they'll ever resolve, because hey, it's not counted in the death tally. And don't even bother considering for a minute that so many young people who really didn't show any signs or symptoms of having the virus have strange discolorations in their digits that are usually associated with poor circulation/lack of oxygen. That's so minor it barely bothers mentioning and couldn't possibly have any negative implications in the future. Even if there were to be a second wave of the virus in several months those of us lucky enough not to be sick with it this time are guaranteed to have nothing to worry about in the future, too.

Best post in all of the COVID threads.

 

[xuxa777]

It’s been what, 5 weeks? 6 tops? I can only imagine what threads are posted in another 5.

Half will be excited about heading to Disney in the next few weeks, other half will think everyone is going to their death by going to Disney.

 

[Cannot_Wait_4Disney]

I am saying that Sweden has followed a different exposure path and as a result much more of their population has been exposed and as a result more have died.

Their Nordic neighbors have followed a shelter in place policy more like the US. As a result fewer people have been exposed and thus far fewer deaths.

At some point the shelter in place will be lifted. I believe that will be before a vaccine has been developed and administered to a necessary number. As a result more people will die.

Will those numbers result in a similar death toll? Only time will tell.

Again, I'll wait until hard numbers come in to make such judgements, not argue based upon something I pulled out of my hind quarters. But rest assured if you're wrong about it, we'll never hear from you on the subject again and if by sheer luck you end up right, you'll be all over the board telling us you told us so.

 

[okeydokey]

It’s been what, 5 weeks? 6 tops? I can only imagine what threads are posted in another 5.

It will be the same exact ones.

 

[Heather07438]

Half will be excited about heading to Disney in the next few weeks, other half will think everyone is going to their death by going to Disney.

I don't think it's cut so clearly right down the line. Maybe the outermost 5% are at polar opposite and the huge middle agreeing on more things than not. At least that's how it looks from my large community.

 

[Wakey]

OP wasn’t talking about overall deaths, mitigation etc, but fact the virus seems a lot less deadly than first feared.
We were seeing 2.5-3.5% as good estimates only 6 weeks ago. It now seems that was massively over estimated. We didn’t understand the virus and the sheer number of asymptomatic and mild cases.
It now looks like it’s going to be about twice as bad as flu, which is still devastating in a new virus that will sweep the population quickly, but nothing like 2.5-3.5% which would be on another level.
It isn’t until we can fully and properly estimate true death rate that we can plan proper phasing of the lockdowns and how they are done.

 

[Sanchez]

Again, I'll wait until hard numbers come in to make such judgements, not argue based upon something I pulled out of my hind quarters. But rest assured if you're wrong about it, we'll never hear from you on the subject again and if by sheer luck you end up right, you'll be all over the board telling us you told us so.

It would be sad if you have to turn over the title as the "Most Correct DISer."

 

[xuxa777]

I don't think it's cut so clearly right down the line. Maybe the outermost 5% are at polar opposite and the huge middle agreeing on more things than not. At least that's how it looks from my large community.

Correct in the real world, but for the threads posted 50/50

 

[xuxa777]

Posted this in another thread but more on point here. Studies keep coming out like this, and this is one of many worldwide. The fatality rate is closer to the regular flu

USC and the Los Angeles County Department of Public Health (Public Health) today released preliminary results from a collaborative scientific study that suggests infections from the new coronavirus are far more widespread - and the fatality rate much lower - in L.A. County than previously thought.

http://www.publichealth.lacounty.gov/phcommon/public/media/mediapubhpdetail.cfm?prid=2328