Will the prices really go down?

[LAS2AMS]

Sigh…

Tariffs are not a Donald Trump Invention.

Biden had tariffs
And trump
And obana
And bush
And clinton
….
And finally washington

Every US President has had tariffs.

And the next president will have tariffs regardless of political party.

Geez people learn some US history. We’ve ALWAYS had tariffs. We always will have tariffs.

So, no, prices won’t come down when “tariffs are repelled” because they will never be “repelled”.

You need to educate yourself. The current administration vastly expanded the rate and application of tariffs. And yes, it’s lead to higher prices. The conservative leaving Tax Foundation has described the tariffs as the largest tax hike on American households since 1993.

 

[DCLMP]

......there goes the thread.

 

[Former DVC Owner]

You need to educate yourself. The current administration vastly expanded the rate and application of tariffs. And yes, it’s lead to higher prices. The conservative leaving Tax Foundation has described the tariffs as the largest tax hike on American households since 1993.

I need to educate myself? I have a phd in economics from Carnegie Mellon and I work at the Federal Reserve Bank of NY. I’m not saying that makes me a genius…but I take offense at you saying I need to educate myself.

Despite what you’ve read the link between tariff rates and prices is not highly correlated. Tariffs are a much smaller factor than things like the unemployment rate, wage growth, or the money supply. Prices are high because the economy is healthy, unemployment is low which drives up wages, and the money supply is high thanks to post-COVID stimulus and the infrastructure bill passed in 2022.

But to address your comment directly: If what you say is true (high tariffs = high prices, low tariffs = low prices) why didn’t the Biden administration eliminate their tariffs during the high inflation period of 2022-2023?

According to you if Biden reduced his tariffs then prices would have dropped. Then Democrats may have won the 2024 election.

So why didn’t Biden reduce or eliminate his tariffs?

Either
1) Biden is stupid

2) Biden wanted high inflation and he wanted to lose in 2024

3) Tariffs don’t impact prices nearly as directly as you think they do. (This is the correct answer)

 

[DCLMP]

I need to educate myself? I have a phd in economics from Carnegie Mellon and I work at the Federal Reserve Bank of NY. I’m not saying that makes me a genius…but I take offense at you saying I need to educate myself.

Despite what you’ve read the link between tariff rates and prices is not highly correlated. Tariffs are a much smaller factor than things like the unemployment rate, wage growth, or the money supply. Prices are high because the economy is healthy, unemployment is low which drives up wages, and the money supply is high thanks to post-COVID stimulus and the infrastructure bill passed in 2022.

But to address your comment directly: If what you say is true (high tariffs = high prices, low tariffs = low prices) why didn’t the Biden administration eliminate their tariffs during the high inflation period of 2022-2023?

According to you if Biden reduced his tariffs then prices would have dropped. Then Democrats may have won the 2024 election.

So why didn’t Biden reduce or eliminate his tariffs?

Either
1) Biden is stupid

2) Biden wanted high inflation and he wanted to lose in 2024

3) Tariffs don’t impact prices nearly as directly as you think they do. (This is the correct answer)

If this a healthy economy I would hate to see an unhealthy one. Tariffs are not responsible for inflation, but good lord on the other stuff. I get you work for the Fed and all, but you can't honestly believe that narrative. If you think wages are keeping up with inflation...I have no words.

 

[Former DVC Owner]

If this a healthy economy I would hate to see an unhealthy one. Tariffs are not responsible for inflation, but good lord on the other stuff. I get you work for the Fed and all, but you can't honestly believe that narrative. If you think wages are keeping up with inflation...I have no words.

We are not in a recession. There is no indication we will be entering a recession within the next 18 months. Prices have stabilized. Those are basically the reasons the Board has lowered rates the past year. I guess everyone’s entitled to their own definition of “healthy economy” but to me an economy with price stability and employment growth is healthy.

By the way I attached a search that says Biden had tariffs for you non-believers out there.

 

[LAS2AMS]

I need to educate myself? I have a phd in economics from Carnegie Mellon and I work at the Federal Reserve Bank of NY. I’m not saying that makes me a genius…but I take offense at you saying I need to educate myself.

Despite what you’ve read the link between tariff rates and prices is not highly correlated. Tariffs are a much smaller factor than things like the unemployment rate, wage growth, or the money supply. Prices are high because the economy is healthy, unemployment is low which drives up wages, and the money supply is high thanks to post-COVID stimulus and the infrastructure bill passed in 2022.

But to address your comment directly: If what you say is true (high tariffs = high prices, low tariffs = low prices) why didn’t the Biden administration eliminate their tariffs during the high inflation period of 2022-2023?

According to you if Biden reduced his tariffs then prices would have dropped. Then Democrats may have won the 2024 election.

So why didn’t Biden reduce or eliminate his tariffs?

Either
1) Biden is stupid

2) Biden wanted high inflation and he wanted to lose in 2024

3) Tariffs don’t impact prices nearly as directly as you think they do. (This is the correct answer)

I stand by my comments. I’ve seen the impact of tariffs on my clients; my largest one will take a heavy loss this year since they were hoping that the tariffs would be rescinded and thus choose not to pass them on.

Yes, companies have been raising prices because they can. But tariffs are a whole different animal.

 

[DCLMP]

We are not in a recession. There is no indication we will be entering a recession within the next 18 months. Prices have stabilized. Those are basically the reasons the Board has lowered rates the past year. I guess everyone’s entitled to their own definition of “healthy economy” but to me an economy with price stability and employment growth is healthy.

By the way I attached a search that says Biden had tariffs for you non-believers out there.

I think you need go out and talk to real people. Employment growth? Price stability? The economy is so great QE is returning.

 

[Former DVC Owner]

I stand by my comments. I’ve seen the impact of tariffs on my clients; my largest one will take a heavy loss this year since they were hoping that the tariffs would be rescinded and thus choose not to pass them on.

Yes, companies have been raising prices because they can. But tariffs are a whole different animal.

Then answer the question:

If tariffs increase prices and high prices were going to cost Biden the 2024 election why didn’t Biden reduce or eliminate his tariffs?

The only logical answer is that lowering tariffs would not have decreased prices. Do you agree?

 

[DCLMP]

I stand by my comments. I’ve seen the impact of tariffs on my clients; my largest one will take a heavy loss this year since they were hoping that the tariffs would be rescinded and thus choose not to pass them on.

Yes, companies have been raising prices because they can. But tariffs are a whole different animal.

The problems that started this inflation 5 years ago still exists today and it’s not tariffs.

 

[LAS2AMS]

Then answer the question:

If tariffs increase prices and high prices were going to cost Biden the 2024 election why didn’t Biden reduce or eliminate his tariffs?

The only logical answer is that lowering tariffs would not have decreased prices. Do you agree?

Why are you making this political? These items were long exempt from tariffs. The current admin, this year, removed the exemption and vastly increased the tariff rate. The client was hopeful the increase would be rescinded but it has not (although the rate has changed a few times). Inventory is procured a year in advance which limited the clients ability to immediately increase prices, since they’re concerned just how much demand will drop.

WSJ recently reported that hundreds of companies are in a similar situation and we’ll see a larger impact next year.

The problems that started this inflation 5 years ago still exists today and it’s not tariffs.

That’s inaccurate. In recent years, companies have continued to raise prices because frankly they could get away with it. Even when Coke, Burger King, etc have said “maybe we went too far…” they continued to raise prices.

Tariffs are a different animal. It’s basically a tax companies are paying to the government to import goods. That tax went way up this year. Companies have largely ate it for a variety of reasons, but if it doesn’t go down very soon, they’ll start to pass it along.

 

[DCLMP]

Why are you making this political? These items were long exempt from tariffs. The current admin, this year, removed the exemption and vastly increased the tariff rate. The client was hopeful the increase would be rescinded but it has not (although the rate has changed a few times). Inventory is procured a year in advance which limited the clients ability to immediately increase prices, since they’re concerned just how much demand will drop.

WSJ recently reported that hundreds of companies are in a similar situation and we’ll see a larger impact next year.



That’s inaccurate. In recent years, companies have continued to raise prices because frankly they could get away with it. Even when Coke, Burger King, etc have said “maybe we went too far…” they continued to raise prices.

Tariffs are a different animal. It’s basically a tax companies are paying to the government to import goods. That tax went way up this year. Companies have largely ate it for a variety of reasons, but if it doesn’t go down very soon, they’ll start to pass it along.

There's a lot more behind the inflation then just tariffs. You could end tariffs tomorrow and the debt bubble is not going away. Monetizing the debt will continue to increase inflation. It would be nice if it was just as simple as tariffs. If it was just tariffs I wouldn't be as doomish as I am about the economy.

 

[Former DVC Owner]

Why are you making this political?

That’s inaccurate. In recent years, companies have continued to raise prices because frankly they could get away with it.

I’m not making it political. I simply pointed out the logical fallacy in the original post that implied tariffs were something new under Trump.

Your comment on prices is also interesting. You had written that prices went up because of tariffs. Now you’ve written prices have increased because companies could get away with it.

So is it tariffs or “getting away with it” that has caused increased prices?

Or is it the expansion of the money supply as a result of Covid stimulus, the massive spending in the 2022 inflation reduction act, quantitative easing by the federal reserve in 2020-2021, and covid supply chain constraints?

 

[LAS2AMS]

There's a lot more behind the inflation then just tariffs. You could end tariffs tomorrow and the debt bubble is not going away. Monetizing the debt will continue to increase inflation. It would be nice if it was just as simple as tariffs. If it was just tariffs I wouldn't be as doomish as I am about the economy.

Tariff's will contribute to inflation but it’s basically a lump sum tax paid to the government; far different than costs rising over time. For example, I have a client that imports custom luxury vehicles and the tariffs have added over six figures to the import bill. That direct sum is directly charged to the end purchaser.

 

[LAS2AMS]

I’m not making it political. I simply pointed out the logical fallacy in the original post that implied tariffs were something new under Trump.

Your comment on prices is also interesting. You had written that prices went up because of tariffs. Now you’ve written prices have increased because companies could get away with it.

So is it tariffs or “getting away with it” that has caused increased prices?

Or is it the expansion of the money supply as a result of Covid stimulus, the massive spending in the 2022 inflation reduction act, quantitative easing by the federal reserve in 2020-2021, and covid supply chain constraints?

You’re internally taking my comments out of sequence/ context.

Early 2020a - increase in money supply, constraints on supply chain, etc = heavy inflation

Circa 2023 - inflation sharply drops but continues as companies take advantage

late 2025 - core inflation, after dropping for awhile, starts to increase despite shipments/ etc dropping

2026- ??

 

[DCLMP]

Tariff's will contribute to inflation but it’s basically a lump sum tax paid to the government; far different than costs rising over time. For example, I have a client that imports custom luxury vehicles and the tariffs have added over six figures to the import bill. That direct sum is directly charged to the end purchaser.

Most people are just struggling to buy food and pay their bills. Not to many people are concerned with the luxury car market.

 

[dllocals]

Please exchange emails or phone numbers with each other or use another platform to debate.

let’s just discuss all things Disney with dignity

 

[LAS2AMS]

Please exchange emails or phone numbers with each other or use another platform to debate.

let’s just discuss all things Disney with dignity

Nobody forced you to read this thread. You’ve been a member nearly as long as me (20 years) and should know how this Budget Board works.

 

[Starport Seven-Five]

Despite what you’ve read the link between tariff rates and prices is not highly correlated. Tariffs are a much smaller factor than things like the unemployment rate, wage growth, or the money supply. Prices are high because the economy is healthy, unemployment is low which drives up wages, and the money supply is high thanks to post-COVID stimulus and the infrastructure bill passed in 2022.

Generalizing "tariffs" here seems like it could be misleading because historically tariffs have been kept narrow in application to avoid broadly impacting the economy. Consumers can afford to pay more for a handful of items (or buy non-tariff alternatives) without it creating a measurable impact on the economy. Prices still went up for the impacted commodities but when it's something like a tariff on Chinese tires it's not going to move the needle because there are so many options.

This administration has put tariffs on raw materials, produce, and many other items that do not have alternative supply chains that are exempt from tariffs. I know what I see within our industry and the full impacts are ugly and we have not yet passed them on to consumers.

But to address your comment directly: If what you say is true (high tariffs = high prices, low tariffs = low prices) why didn’t the Biden administration eliminate their tariffs during the high inflation period of 2022-2023?
According to you if Biden reduced his tariffs then prices would have dropped. Then Democrats may have won the 2024 election.

So why didn’t Biden reduce or eliminate his tariffs?

Either
1) Biden is stupid

2) Biden wanted high inflation and he wanted to lose in 2024

3) Tariffs don’t impact prices nearly as directly as you think they do. (This is the correct answer)

It's much more difficult to fix things than it is to break them. Reciprocal tariffs, business planning made in reaction to the tariffs, etc. all take time to unwind. A knee jerk reaction is often worse than keeping the status quo.

 

[DCLMP]

Nobody forced you to read this thread. You’ve been a member nearly as long as me (20 years) and should know how this Budget Board works.

I don't find it off topic. Economic conditions will effect Disney. I don't think 2026 is a question mark? The money supply is increasing at the fastest level since 22. They are lowering interest rates and monetizing the debt. Tariffs aren't solely responsible for inflation. Debt is huge factor.

 

[LAS2AMS]

I don't find it off topic. Economic conditions will effect Disney. I don't think 2026 is a question mark? The money supply is increasing at the fastest level since 22. They are lowering interest rates and monetizing the debt. Tariffs aren't solely responsible for inflation. Debt is huge factor.

This forum has never really been Disney specific. When I first lurked here a quarter century ago, people posted the best deals - not limited to Disney. And there were tons of threads on finding the best deals around WDW, like hotels and dining, and where to find hot coupons (on the Internet and around Orlando area). It was an invaluable resource that helped us visit WDW often. I miss those days.

But this thread is wondering if prices will come down. Our favorite brand coffee has been selling $2 to $4 more (sale pricing) for a 10 pack of k-cups. Some of this is inflation but much of it is the tariffs directly imposed on coffee. Now that those have been rescinded, I’m hopefully the price will come down - even if it’s just slightly. We will see.