Why wait times have gotten crazy

[3DisneyFanz]

All of that makes total sense. I think one of the results of FP+ is that it increases the number of attractions the casual/standard WDW guest does while lowing the number the typical DIS boards guest does. That really isn't a bad thing.

The savings card has the exact same purpose as MyMagic+ (not to be confused with FP+) and that is data gathering. Companies know that they can make better decisions with better data.

With the increased wait times I would really question if anyone is doing more than they did before. They may be doing different things but I find it highly improbable that a significant portion of people are doing more.

I'm also curious what the new data is that Disney is collecting for 2 billion. If the scanner are supposedly not strong enough to track traffic patterns then it's really just whether or not someone used a FP and what they spend if the registers can read MB for cash transactions. What else is it that they didn't already have access to?

 

[dlavender]

Tried to post this last night, but hit the board downtime by 4 min...

Yep. Obviously, the wait times would only drop so far but you only have to look at the FP math to see why there's a problem now. If you have an attraction with 2000 people/hr capacity, to experience a 90 min wait, you need 3000 people willing to wait that long in the queue in front of you. And to maintain a 90 min wait, that flow of people has to be continuously that high. That's a lot of people. But then lets say you divert, as easywdw says up to 70% of the seats to "reservations" ie FP. Then as far as the standby line is concerned there are only 600 seats, so a 90 min line only needs 900 people per hour, continually. A heck of a lot easier to obtain than 3000.

And you could see this in practice when something would happen on a ride, like say Tower of Terror when operating one drop shaft vs two. The line can get out of control, quickly. Seats diverted to FP are no different than taking vehicles out of service, as far as the standby line is concerned. FP effectively turns high capacity attractions into low capacity ones like Dumbo or Peter Pan for anyone not holding a FP.

Wait times are only partially dependent on ride capacity, and partially dependent on the thought bubbles over people's heads ala Roller Coaster Tycoon. It seems like someone thought that it was a simple thing to move people out of a standby into a virtual queue, and if that is what really happens, things might be okay. In practice, the virtual queue is partially filled with a bunch of people who were never in the standby queue to begin with (which is WHY some people like it so much). In order to accommodate these "new" riders, somebody has to either lose their seat, or the wait time has to go up, since ride capacity hasn't changed.

So to take our 2000 people per hour ride. 1400 slots get distributed via FP, but lets say 30% of those are new riders. That means 420 are new, and therefore only 980 can move from standby to FP. So as far as standby people are concerned, they've dropped from 2000 people to 1020. But we've dropped effective capacity from 2000 to 600. So for those 1020 people they went from a 60 min wait to 102 min. Some people in standby will get frustrated by that (and why some people hate FP so much) and bail, and some people holding FP won't return and so standby can move a little faster, so the actual equilibrium wait time might only be 80 min.

Now, those 420 new riders came from "somewhere," so you think that might mean there's a smaller line wherever "somewhere" was. But we've also freed 980 people from standby (plus the people that got frustrated and bailed) and they can now go "somewhere" too. And not only can they replace those 420 people, there's enough people to double that, with some more left over. So wait times at "somewhere" can go up too.

And here's the thing, this is true for FP+ but it was also true for legacy FP. What most likely has changed is the number of "new" riders. Legacy required you to wake up on time, get to a park, etc. So maybe the net effect was there were only 5-15% of "new" riders, so wait times went up less, and it affected fewer attractions. FP+ allows for a much larger volume of "new" riders and so the wait times can be more drastically affected, and it's on every attraction people would view as "worth doing." Basically, all FP has a negative effect on wait times for the standby line, and that's not something legacy FP lovers want to hear, because if shorter wait times is the goal, it should be gone entirely (just increase capacity instead).

Now, from Disney's perspective they went from "420 unhappy, non-riders walking around and 980 stuck in a line," to "1400 happy riders walking around." Which group do you think spends more money? Makes it easy not to care about the 1020 unhappy people still stuck in the standby line only now for 33% longer. And they didn't have to mess around building expensive new capacity in each park.

You broke that down better than I could have ever wanted to! I agree. Were people unhappy pre FP? Were they actually trying to fix a real problem, or just wanted to create a new "product"? I'm fascinated as to why they even created the first FP system. It seemed at that time, that they were doing you a favor. If you walked to Space, saw a 60 min wait, didn't want to wait that long, it was a "here, take a ticket and walk on later" pass, so that you don't stand in line and push it to 90mins, because no one wants to see 90. With this iteration, they seem to relish in the 90+min wait time.

 

[GreatLakes]

With the increased wait times I would really question if anyone is doing more than they did before. They may be doing different things but I find it highly improbable that a significant portion of people are doing more.

I'm also curious what the new data is that Disney is collecting for 2 billion. If the scanner are supposedly not strong enough to track traffic patterns then it's really just whether or not someone used a FP and what they spend if the registers can read MB for cash transactions. What else is it that they didn't already have access to?

A large portion of that $2 Billion figure was infrastructure and architecture. The servers, analytic tools, and on property infrastructure. It is basically a whole new ERP/CRM system with a lot of customization. Those projects aren't cheap for anyone.

I don't think we have even scratched the surface of what they will be using RFID for over the life of the project. As the technology improves we will see them using it to track traffic in the parks and across property. I think they will use it for real time bus routing, staffing, and more for-fee options to "plus" experiences based on location and guest history. I think we will see them running much more detailed analytics on both individuals and on populations to better monetize those individuals and populations. They will be able to target market much more accurately to specific guests or smaller group of guests as opposed to wide-sweeping promotions that leave money on the table.

The MBs are one input device for the system. MDE is another. They will know not only who has and uses a FP for any particular ride but who attempted to get one. What they chose as an alternative. Does the failure to get a specific FP cascade into other changes such as which park a person is in. More and more experiences will necessitate the need for one or both of them to move data through them. Anyone who has experience analyzing large data will be able to use this information to tailor make experiences for guests either for a price or as a retention maneuver.

Much of the installed architecture can also be scaled so the deployment of MM+ into other properties costs a fraction of the initial cash layout while spreading the analytic benefit through more properties. It is a really fun kind of project to be on.

 

[dlavender]

They will know not only who has and uses a FP for any particular ride but who attempted to get one. What they chose as an alternative.

When I chose FP's, for example, 7DMT was unavailable as a choice. How would they know that I wanted it, and chose an alternate? I never had the choice on 7DMT to begin with....

 

[WillAustin]

With this iteration, they seem to relish in the 90+min wait time.

It's a combination of crowd levels and limited capacity.

FP+ is a marketing tactic so the main vacation takeaway isn't, "every line was too long."

 

[GreatLakes]

When I chose FP's, for example, 7DMT was unavailable as a choice. How would they know that I wanted it, and chose an alternate? I never had the choice on 7DMT to begin with....

If a person searches for FPs in the Magic Kingdom for a Monday, everything is available except 7DMT, and they decide to search the next day instead it can be deduced that they were looking for 7DMT on a Monday. The repeated logging in and searching for FPs after they are already booked is also an indication that a wanted FP wasn't found and when combined with subsequent searches and changes a relatively clear picture of intent can be formed. A lot can be determined from search patterns.

It is admittedly a bit more complicated then the narrow example I provided but these kinds of things are the focus of MBA tracts, not exactly the kind of thing you can explain very well in a few sentences on a message board.

ETA: By design these systems get more accurate as the data set grows and forecasts are either proven or debunked. The decisions made based on the data will not be nearly as accurate at these early stages of the project as it will at later stages. The first 5 years or so of this kind of project is really just a data gathering phase.

 

[dlavender]

It's a combination of crowd levels and limited capacity.

FP+ is a marketing tactic so the main vacation takeaway isn't, "every line was too long."

It seems to do the opposite. I know crowds have increased, however, have they doubled? I have never noticed 95 min waits for Space, 60 mins for HM and POTC, until FP +. Just a personal observation. Maybe they will work out any "kinks" that are causing this, if possible.

 

[dlavender]

If a person searches for FPs in the Magic Kingdom for a Monday, everything is available except 7DMT, and they decide to search the next day instead it can be deduced that they were looking for 7DMT on a Monday. The repeated logging in and searching for FPs after they are already booked is also an indication that a wanted FP wasn't found and when combined with subsequent searches and changes a relatively clear picture of intent can be formed. A lot can be determined from search patterns.

It is admittedly a bit more complicated then the narrow example I provided but these kinds of things are the focus of MBA tracts, not exactly the kind of thing you can explain very well in a few sentences on a message board.

I think that is a stretch, at least on that front. There were four things blocked out when I booked. They couldn't know which one I was searching for, or wanting. They already have to know that those four things are popular. I don't think that they would need to keep analyzing to find that out....

They would already be able to find out if 7DMT had no FP availability, did more people visit HS that day. I don't think this information is very beneficial. I think the most beneficial byproduct of the system is its purpose to make people commit to a park 60/30 days out.

 

[Happy_2_B]

I know crowds have increased, however, have they doubled?

Crowds are only up 2-4 percentage points- barely a blip on the radar. This issue most probably has to do with Disney's internal operational system. Len's team over at touringplans are in the parks trying to figure out Disney's mathematical model as to how they are currently doing things- so will be interesting to see what they come up with once they are finished gathering the relevant statistics and finish up the math to support their findings.

 

[hopemax]

You broke that down better than I could have ever wanted to! I agree. Were people unhappy pre FP? Were they actually trying to fix a real problem, or just wanted to create a new "product"?

Since the moment DL opened its doors, people have been complaining about long lines. Disney has said it is the number one complaint (or #2, prices are always another big one). So I think, someone was trying to fix a real problem. But while their solution works for a subset of people, it comes at the expense of another group of people. DIS board peeps, think "well, just get educated." But if everyone who wants to experience an attraction, learns all the tricks, then it just means that even more attractions will turn into the Mine Train/A&G FP grab. 30,000 people can't be hopping online all at the same trying to reserve the same stuff. No one wins. The more people know, the worse it gets.

The only real fix for "long lines" is

1. Add more capacity, both in new rides, and adding capacity to existing rides. For example: DLP's Peter Pan has 2 rows of seats

2. Better distribution, make people choose to do other things. I've posted in the past that in the 70's there were more D/E ticket rides than now, despite attendance increasing by millions, some attractions are in such bad condition that people skip them (like CoP) and some attractions just don't draw people in and need to be replaced (Stitch)

3. Have people need to do less things. Ride time is a big component. If a family is happily visiting 10 min+ attractions they need fewer of them to fill a day than 90 second attractions like Flying Carpets, or 3 min dark rides. This is why Toy Story Land is so disappointing to me. It looks like there will be a 90 second type attraction, a 3 min coaster, and the existing 6.5 min TSMM. And it's replacing the Backlot Tour's 30 min, the Backstage Pass's 30 min. One will occupy people for less than 15 min, the other for an hour.

But all of those cost a lot of money, multiply by 4 parks and it's a lot more than $2 billion.

And psychologically, people are silly. We complain about lines, but then if there is something without a line we assume "it's not worth it and toddle off to find something with a line instead (or how people will stand in the right line which is full, and completely ignore the empty line on the left). And you know what we seem to like even more. Seeing people stuck in a line, while we are able to breeze right by it, as if we were special. Original Epcot was built with "people-eating" in mind, but on a spreadsheet operations only saw "wasted capacity" and guests as "I guess it's not popular." So they started building so they wouldn't have "wasted capacity." And we end up with TSMM, Soarin, which were so under capacity that now they have to add more now and everyone knows how special they are for managing to ride it.

 

[3DisneyFanz]

A large portion of that $2 Billion figure was infrastructure and architecture. The servers, analytic tools, and on property infrastructure. It is basically a whole new ERP/CRM system with a lot of customization. Those projects aren't cheap for anyone.

I don't think we have even scratched the surface of what they will be using RFID for over the life of the project. As the technology improves we will see them using it to track traffic in the parks and across property. I think they will use it for real time bus routing, staffing, and more for-fee options to "plus" experiences based on location and guest history. I think we will see them running much more detailed analytics on both individuals and on populations to better monetize those individuals and populations. They will be able to target market much more accurately to specific guests or smaller group of guests as opposed to wide-sweeping promotions that leave money on the table.

The MBs are one input device for the system. MDE is another. They will know not only who has and uses a FP for any particular ride but who attempted to get one. What they chose as an alternative. Does the failure to get a specific FP cascade into other changes such as which park a person is in. More and more experiences will necessitate the need for one or both of them to move data through them. Anyone who has experience analyzing large data will be able to use this information to tailor make experiences for guests either for a price or as a retention maneuver.

Much of the installed architecture can also be scaled so the deployment of MM+ into other properties costs a fraction of the initial cash layout while spreading the analytic benefit through more properties. It is a really fun kind of project to be on.

The fee for service options and actual individual utilization of FP are the only new things out of this. The system isn't about collecting data because they already have plenty of that and they aren't gleaming anything amazing out of this. It's strictly about rationing experiences and trying to force people to lesser used attractions. Maybe I walk past Laugh Floor for two straight years but now I'll try it because you recommended it for a FP. The simple fact the tiering was put in place tells you all you need to know about the intention of the system.

I do agree though that they will force it in other areas to try and spread the costs. It's already in the kids clubs on the cruise line and they are trying to slowly introduce it in DL. The bands really are a nice part of the project but ultimately it's just a key to the world card on your wrist.

 

[Planogirl]

Since the moment DL opened its doors, people have been complaining about long lines. Disney has said it is the number one complaint (or #2, prices are always another big one). So I think, someone was trying to fix a real problem. But while their solution works for a subset of people, it comes at the expense of another group of people. DIS board peeps, think "well, just get educated." But if everyone who wants to experience an attraction, learns all the tricks, then it just means that even more attractions will turn into the Mine Train/A&G FP grab. 30,000 people can't be hopping online all at the same trying to reserve the same stuff. No one wins. The more people know, the worse it gets.

The only real fix for "long lines" is

1. Add more capacity, both in new rides, and adding capacity to existing rides. For example: DLP's Peter Pan has 2 rows of seats

2. Better distribution, make people choose to do other things. I've posted in the past that in the 70's there were more D/E ticket rides than now, despite attendance increasing by millions, some attractions are in such bad condition that people skip them (like CoP) and some attractions just don't draw people in and need to be replaced (Stitch)

3. Have people need to do less things. Ride time is a big component. If a family is happily visiting 10 min+ attractions they need fewer of them to fill a day than 90 second attractions like Flying Carpets, or 3 min dark rides. This is why Toy Story Land is so disappointing to me. It looks like there will be a 90 second type attraction, a 3 min coaster, and the existing 6.5 min TSMM. And it's replacing the Backlot Tour's 30 min, the Backstage Pass's 30 min. One will occupy people for less than 15 min, the other for an hour.

But all of those cost a lot of money, multiply by 4 parks and it's a lot more than $2 billion.

And psychologically, people are silly. We complain about lines, but then if there is something without a line we assume "it's not worth it and toddle off to find something with a line instead (or how people will stand in the right line which is full, and completely ignore the empty line on the left). And you know what we seem to like even more. Seeing people stuck in a line, while we are able to breeze right by it, as if we were special. Original Epcot was built with "people-eating" in mind, but on a spreadsheet operations only saw "wasted capacity" and guests as "I guess it's not popular." So they started building so they wouldn't have "wasted capacity." And we end up with TSMM, Soarin, which were so under capacity that now they have to add more now and everyone knows how special they are for managing to ride it.

Great post. Your comments about replacing longer rides with short little rides are particularly interesting. I see it with the Maelstrom change too. Way too much has been lost at Epcot over time with way too little replacing those losses.

I just see more and more people milling around wondering what to do next. People can't theoretically eat more than they already do and how much shopping can be done for the same generic merchandise?

 

[CodeGoddess]

The fee for service options and actual individual utilization of FP are the only new things out of this. The system isn't about collecting data because they already have plenty of that and they aren't gleaming anything amazing out of this.

I would tend to disagree. While you don't see any other parts of this I can promise that if this was my team (I am a software developer) doing this, we would have made sure to put in the correct foundation for future expansion for things like tracking. We just implemented a similar system using RFID for our packages and while it's only doing just a couple things now, we paid and installed the foundation to do much more in future as we are able to develop the software side to support it.

And as far as not needing more data, the data they have has no way to go down to the individual level or could be used for good large scale analytics. With the ability to see a single persons every movement, wait time and purchase you can do a WHOLE lot of data analysis for everything from crowd flow to targeted marking by demographic. This is the foundation for big data at it's finest.

 

[Angel Ariel]

I just see more and more people milling around wondering what to do next. People can't theoretically eat more than they already do and how much shopping can be done for the same generic merchandise?

That's how I felt last November. The parks "felt" more crowded, based on the number of people in the walkways, but the waits were still more than manageable. Wait wise, I would have told you at the time that crowd levels were around a 5 or 6 (don't know what they actually were, that's just what it felt like to me). Looking around you in the walkways, though, you would have thought it was more a 7-8 day because they were just really crowded with people milling, or sitting at the phone charging areas, etc.

 

[GreatLakes]

I would tend to disagree. While you don't see any other parts of this I can promise that if this was my team (I am a software developer) doing this, we would have made sure to put in the correct foundation for future expansion for things like tracking. We just implemented a similar system using RFID for our packages and while it's only doing just a couple things now, we paid and installed the foundation to do much more in future as we are able to develop the software side to support it.

And as far as not needing more data, the data they have has no way to go down to the individual level or could be used for good large scale analytics. With the ability to see a single persons every movement, wait time and purchase you can do a WHOLE lot of data analysis for everything from crowd flow to targeted marking by demographic. This is the foundation for big data at it's finest.

 

[Planogirl]

That's how I felt last November. The parks "felt" more crowded, based on the number of people in the walkways, but the waits were still more than manageable. Wait wise, I would have told you at the time that crowd levels were around a 5 or 6 (don't know what they actually were, that's just what it felt like to me). Looking around you in the walkways, though, you would have thought it was more a 7-8 day because they were just really crowded with people milling, or sitting at the phone charging areas, etc.

It's not as much fun to wander around and just take in the sights when there is wall to wall people. I guess that it's inevitable though.

I need to make note of the phone charging areas. I assume that there are benches and chairs at those?

 

[Angel Ariel]

It's not as much fun to wander around and just take in the sights when there is wall to wall people. I guess that it's inevitable though.

I need to make note of the phone charging areas. I assume that there are benches and chairs at those?

We sat down at tree stump table/chairs outside of the tangled restrooms. I'm pretty sure there were charging stations. Not sure if they were available at every table/chairs, but I thought there were some sprinkled in the area at least.

 

[Angel Ariel]

we would have made sure to put in the correct foundation for future expansion for things like tracking

Disney's IT department doesn't exactly have a great track record...while I would like to hope the above was done, and would like to be optimistic about it, there's definitely part of me that is skeptical of whether or not it was done to the level it needed to be done.

 

[dlavender]

1. Add more capacity, both in new rides, and adding capacity to existing rides. For example: DLP's Peter Pan has 2 rows of seats

I agree. This is what has been complained about on this board the most, I believe (well pricing, but it is related to less rides).

need to be replaced (Stitch)

Before we do anything, can we please replace Stitch? No one would be upset. Walk on from open to close, even on a 10 day. Put another Peter Pan in there, if possible. A couple of benches in its place would have a longer wait time....

 

[Jfine]

In my experience , if you look at the length of lines and wait times during emh, that shows the impact that FP+ has on ride wait times. For example during EMH the line for 7DMT was well outside the ride line (wrapped around to tea cups). Posted wait during EMH was 40 minutes. During the day, it would have been 70 minutes or so at that point.