Why wait times have gotten crazy

[ArwenMarie]

I think I need to elaborate my above post. As an example, on TSMM, the standby line is, let's say, 60 minutes. But if you have a fast pass, you'd wait, say 5 minutes. Let more standby go than what it is now so that the 60 becomes 40 and less FP+ so that it's wait becomes 10-15 minutes. I'd rather have more standby lines become shorter than have three rides be immediate.

I think they are always doing adjustments like that. The FP line can take longer if the Standby line is very long so some Standby folks can get on at all.

 

[Reimagineer]

I remember a discussion between Len and Jim Hill about guest satisfaction surveys. Disney noticed a correlation between the number of Legacy FPs used guest satisfaction. They also saw that a large number of people used none while a small number of people used multiples. Spreading the passes more equally via a different distribution system, which became FP+, would logically increase guest satisfaction for a larger number of people in comparison to those who would see a decrease in satisfaction due to a lower rate of FP usage.

Didn't they know, correlation doesn't equal causation! FP users were probably already more engaged with the Disney experience and more apt to use guest satisfaction. We need to get the Freakonomics people on this

 

[Angel Ariel]

I know there has been a lot of discussion about the recent seeming crazy crowds... Christmas-level wait times, in September and October...

Over in the comments of the touringplans blog, there is an interesting comment from Len Testa of touringplans.... They are basically trying to figure it out themselves, and they don't think it has anything to do with attendance.

Here is part of his comment, go see the blog for the whole thing:

The two theories we’re looking at now are:

1) Disney has reduced capacity at the rides. This saves labor cost and maintenance cost, but increases wait times. That can lead to more dissatisfied guests, so the question is whether the cost savings are worth it. (It’s also useful if you want to justify a move to “surge” pricing. Just sayin’.) We’re counting the number of people riding the rides now versus last year, to see if this is happening. It takes a while to collect these numbers.

2) There have been changes to Fastpass+ allocation or use. It’s possible that Disney (or guests) have increased use of FP+, which would drive up standby times. We’re checking the advance and day-of availability to see whether the supply has increased or decreased. It’s also possible to check the standby wait time and # of people in line, to see if the Fastpass-to-Standby guest allocation has changed, and we’re looking at that too.

3) The posted waits are artificially inflated to make the park look more crowded. We have tens of thousands of posted and actual wait times, dating back years, and this is what we’re using for the comparison. That should be done in a few days.

I think it’s safe to say at this point, that the cause of the increased wait times is a change Disney made to its park operations. We just need to finish up the math to make the case.

Wish I could say that any of those 3 options would surprise me, but it wouldn't. I'm glad touring plans is trying to figure out what the difference is.

 

[dlavender]

Does anyone think that without FP that all lines would be shorter? Would space be an average of 50 mins vs 95? Would HM and POTC go back to an average of 20-30 vs 45-60? It does kind of seem like a big scam, for lack of a better word. In the old days, we would RD, start in Tomorrowland, and work our way around the lands, riding everything. With FP -, we would do the same thing, except, when we got to Fantasy Land, we would skip ahead to BTMRR and snag a FP to use when we arrived. Seemed to work really well. Last Saturday, using FP +, we had a much more aggressive plan, hitting up rides at RD, then using FP's, and waiting longer in the afternoon for secondary rides. I feel like we still got as much in as we used to, it was just a different plan to accomplish it. Is FP + just a complicated way to help people accomplish what we used to do before FP, just a repackaging? I wonder what a day at MK would like like if for one day, there were no FP's. This is a long winded way of saying I don't dislike FP +, I just think it is a shiny box filled with nothing. Again, maybe I am completely off. Maybe with no FP, waits would be longer, and one would not be able to ride as much.

 

[MrInfinity]

This is pure conjecture. The 10% number is almost laughable! What the actual number is no one will ever know as Disney will never put it out. Why? They are promoting a system that isn't in place to help guests, it a system to help their bottom line. The guest satisfaction is secondary. That's my opinion.

Laugh away, but it's correct. The approximate attendance and ride capacities are known. It's easy to calculate that the number of people who actually used the old FastPass to get 5 or more tickets in a day is less than 10%. Just because you did, it's easy to think most people did. This is called a false-concensus effect. That is, because you made an effort to learn FP- and got on that many rides, you expect that is more or less typical. But they didn't. It wasn't mathematically possible.

 

[Planogirl]

Laugh away, but it's correct. The approximate attendance and ride capacities are known. It's easy to calculate that the number of people who actually used the old FastPass to get 5 or more tickets in a day is less than 10%. Just because you did, it's easy to think most people did. This is called a false-concensus effect. That is, because you made an effort to learn FP- and got on that many rides, you expect that is more or less typical. But they didn't. It wasn't mathematically possible.

I've never seen these statistics posted and would love to read about them. Do you remember where they were discussed?

 

[DisneyOma]

I know there has been a lot of discussion about the recent seeming crazy crowds... Christmas-level wait times, in September and October...

Over in the comments of the touringplans blog, there is an interesting comment from Len Testa of touringplans.... They are basically trying to figure it out themselves, and they don't think it has anything to do with attendance.

Here is part of his comment, go see the blog for the whole thing:

The two theories we’re looking at now are:

1) Disney has reduced capacity at the rides. This saves labor cost and maintenance cost, but increases wait times. That can lead to more dissatisfied guests, so the question is whether the cost savings are worth it. (It’s also useful if you want to justify a move to “surge” pricing. Just sayin’.) We’re counting the number of people riding the rides now versus last year, to see if this is happening. It takes a while to collect these numbers.

2) There have been changes to Fastpass+ allocation or use. It’s possible that Disney (or guests) have increased use of FP+, which would drive up standby times. We’re checking the advance and day-of availability to see whether the supply has increased or decreased. It’s also possible to check the standby wait time and # of people in line, to see if the Fastpass-to-Standby guest allocation has changed, and we’re looking at that too.

3) The posted waits are artificially inflated to make the park look more crowded. We have tens of thousands of posted and actual wait times, dating back years, and this is what we’re using for the comparison. That should be done in a few days.

I think it’s safe to say at this point, that the cause of the increased wait times is a change Disney made to its park operations. We just need to finish up the math to make the case.

Here is a huge culprit that is often overlooked. So many rides that loaded efficiently in the past that didn't have fast pass now do. Thus we now have decreased efficiency and now higher wait times!

1. How can you 'reduce capacity' without removing ride vehicles? I've seen no evidence of a shortage of ride vehicles - I've seen the opposite on any attraction with 'floating' vehicles - huge back ups filled with guests, and empty ones waiting for guests. And how in the world is he 'counting the number of people riding' - does he really stand there, day after day, at multiple attractions, and count people coming out of the queue? And he does it all year?

2. How does he get access inside a queue to see this? If he is entering the queue, then he is altering the queue if he has no intention of riding. And if he does ride, then he doesn't get correlating data to compare.

3. Who does the posting of wait times? If they are by a large number of people, they are not all that valid. Who is to say that one random person doesn't go in there and post all kinds of made-up data?

Basically, what I'm saying is that all the stuff he proposes to do are anecdotal. Doesn't matter what he 'sees' happening, it is poorly collected data and invalid.

 

[havoc315]

Didn't they know, correlation doesn't equal causation! FP users were probably already more engaged with the Disney experience and more apt to use guest satisfaction. We need to get the Freakonomics people on this

Yeah..... too many variables.
Yes, it is likely that use of legacy fastpasses increased guest satisfaction.

But does that mean giving fastpasses to everyone has increased guest satisfaction? If it results in longer lines for non-FP standby, then those same guests may be getting some decreased satisfaction. And does booking FPs on a website 30-60 days in advance, increase or decrease guest satisfaction? (I can imagine different people have different opinions). What about the fact that people can walk into the park and then learn that ALL the FPs for Mine Coaster are ALREADY gone, does that increase or decrease guest satisfaction?
What of guests who were SATISFIED playing it by ear, and now feel they MUST follow a regimented schedule set by fastpasses? Does that increase or decrease guest satisfaction?
And under the legacy system, generally only "E-tickets" were eligible for fastpasses. Yes, if someone used a FP to ride Space Mountain in 5 minutes, instead of 45 minutes, under the legacy system, it may have increased their "satisfaction" But does using a FP for Ellen's Energy Adventure really increase a guest's satisfaction?

There are simply too many variables for any easy analysis.

 

[havoc315]

1. How can you 'reduce capacity' without removing ride vehicles? I've seen no evidence of a shortage of ride vehicles - I've seen the opposite on any attraction with 'floating' vehicles - huge back ups filled with guests, and empty ones waiting for guests. And how in the world is he 'counting the number of people riding' - does he really stand there, day after day, at multiple attractions, and count people coming out of the queue? And he does it all year?

2. How does he get access inside a queue to see this? If he is entering the queue, then he is altering the queue if he has no intention of riding. And if he does ride, then he doesn't get correlating data to compare.

3. Who does the posting of wait times? If they are by a large number of people, they are not all that valid. Who is to say that one random person doesn't go in there and post all kinds of made-up data?

Basically, what I'm saying is that all the stuff he proposes to do are anecdotal. Doesn't matter what he 'sees' happening, it is poorly collected data and invalid.

1--- Lots of ways that capacity get reduced. Do you know how many Enchanted Castle With Belle rooms are running at a time? Or how many elevators at Tower of Terror are operating? And with reduced staff, how much longer it takes to repair a ride or vehicle when it goes down? Or how much faster/slower it takes to load ride vehicles depending on the staffing, at rides where there is some variability. All these things add up.

As to how they get data... they get TONS of data so one person, making things up, will not have a major effect. Furthermore, Disney now actually provides the posted wait times themselves. Actual wait times require people reporting data.

But for example, today.. a pretty low crowd day, TP got 6 reports from users for the Mine Train. They've gotten 8 reports for Soarin and 9 reports for Test Track, so far today and the day isn't over. On very busy days, they may get 10-20+ reports on various attractions. So they are getting tons of data points that they can aggregate.
So between the times provided by Disney itself, the many user reported times, and they do occasionally go into the park themselves to observe themselves... they have lots and lots of data to analyze.

 

[3DisneyFanz]

I certainly hope no one in a position to look at results really thought simply giving someone a FP would make their satisfaction improve. Do you really think giving FP for Figment, The Land and Captain EO is going to make someone love EPCOT all of a sudden?

 

[Disneylover99]

I think I need to elaborate my above post. As an example, on TSMM, the standby line is, let's say, 60 minutes. But if you have a fast pass, you'd wait, say 5 minutes. Let more standby go than what it is now so that the 60 becomes 40 and less FP+ so that it's wait becomes 10-15 minutes. I'd rather have more standby lines become shorter than have three rides be immediate.

I hope they don't do this. For me, a 40 minute wait is too long for any ride. So if they increase the fp wait, to lower standby waits, there will be no benefit for me.

 

[Sarahbelle341]

I can only speak for my family but FP+ has been beneficial for us. We aren't early morning people so running to fast pass machines at rope drop don't work well. We also like TS meals so selecting Fp+ in advance allows us to coordinate with our ADRs and get what we want. We enjoy parades, shows, fireworks, etc so scheduling Fp+ around show times is nice too. We get more accomplished even with longer rates on "B" rated attractions because it allows us to schedule our day how we want to and still ride a few headliners that simply had too long of a line to wait in before. My only main gripe is the tier groupings in Epcot and HS and not being able to choose a 4th FP from my phone.

Examples
We have been able to ride TSMM every time we visit HS with almost no wait.
We are able to utilize Rider switch with FP+ and ride more headliners overall
We got to experience more D & C for the first time that we never had time for before because we were in line. We discovered some new favorites.
We saw more characters since many offer FP+ now. This means we got more photos on our memory maker.
We no longer have to choose between keeping our ADR or using the FP legacy time we randomly pulled to ride BTMR.

 

[WillAustin]

My opinion---FP+ should get you on the ride in less time than waiting in the standby line. Nothing more.

Fastpass been promoted as "little, to no wait," for years, hence the first part of the name "fast". Just less time than the standby line is a very low bar.

In my opinion, it's ridiculous to call anything over 15 minutes fast. And I'd rather have 3 immediate rides because FP+ is not lowering average standby times across the parks. It's making me spend more time in line for my non-FP+ rides, unless I just give up and leave.

 

[Bluegrrl]

I really think that FP+ is the culprit. Think about it this way: during FP-, everyone had a fair chance to get a fp, if you went to the park. You could also look at the rides and decide whether or not Peter Pan or Space Mountain was your cup of teacup. Sure, you could read about it when planning, but there is nothing like seeing the actual drop of Everest for you to decide if you wanted to ride it.

But now the FP+ lets people from all over the world get their FP+ from home, and many of them don't know anything about the ride that they are booking. Are they coaster people? Is a show worth it to them? Do they consider dark rides to be too "Kiddie" for them and do they really want to ride it? Do they want to meet local girls who are "friends" with the princesses, or do they really want to stand in hot Florida sun to watch a parade? Many of them may book rides without knowing this info and then book the FP+, causing the lines to slow down, and taking away spots from people who want to ride the attraction. Also, lots of people suffer from what I call "failure to commit" on rides (Do you want to ride it? I don't know, how about you?) causing capacity to slow down. Plus some people and some cast members won't or don't like to "pack" the line, which, believe it or not, actually increases capacity.

People-swallower rides, like HM and POTC (which had two lines), now have a FP+ line, which also might slow down capacity since people might use their FP for characters rather than rides, making all the standby lines longer/slower. Especially with POTC, since if it was busy, they would open the second line, evenly distributing the line and increasing capacity.

Plus, since FP+ encourages groups to stay together, groups of families might be going to rides together, like the large tour groups, rather than separating the parties.
So, that's what I think.

 

[PirateD]

Lines' estimates get updated every 5 minutes once the park opens, based on what's actually happening in the park on that day. Any touring plan you optimize in the park also gets the updated estimates. In that respect, those are two more "safety nets" in case the original forecast is off. So yeah, keep using that (and thanks!).

If you look at any attraction graph on past dates for the crowd calendar, the blue line shows the prediction before the park opened, and the red line is the prediction updated as the day goes on. The purple line is the posted wait.

Also, thanks to everyone for the ideas.

Thanks, Len, for the explanation of how it works. Definitely will be using it to help us survive holiday crowds this Christmas! We appreciate your work and how much it has helped us to have great family time together at WDW!

 

[Tarheel girl 1975]

Yeah..... too many variables.
Yes, it is likely that use of legacy fastpasses increased guest satisfaction.

But does that mean giving fastpasses to everyone has increased guest satisfaction? If it results in longer lines for non-FP standby, then those same guests may be getting some decreased satisfaction. And does booking FPs on a website 30-60 days in advance, increase or decrease guest satisfaction? (I can imagine different people have different opinions). What about the fact that people can walk into the park and then learn that ALL the FPs for Mine Coaster are ALREADY gone, does that increase or decrease guest satisfaction?
What of guests who were SATISFIED playing it by ear, and now feel they MUST follow a regimented schedule set by fastpasses? Does that increase or decrease guest satisfaction?
And under the legacy system, generally only "E-tickets" were eligible for fastpasses. Yes, if someone used a FP to ride Space Mountain in 5 minutes, instead of 45 minutes, under the legacy system, it may have increased their "satisfaction" But does using a FP for Ellen's Energy Adventure really increase a guest's satisfaction?

There are simply too many variables for any easy analysis.

I thought guest satisfaction was linked to the number of attractions the guest experienced in a day. I think that number was around 7 or 8. I don't think that anyone here has access to any data that will show whether FP+ has increased guest satisfaction. Although I find some of the questions on the new Disney surveys interesting.

 

[flicx]

Laugh away, but it's correct. The approximate attendance and ride capacities are known. It's easy to calculate that the number of people who actually used the old FastPass to get 5 or more tickets in a day is less than 10%. Just because you did, it's easy to think most people did. This is called a false-concensus effect. That is, because you made an effort to learn FP- and got on that many rides, you expect that is more or less typical. But they didn't. It wasn't mathematically possible.

Lets look at this logically. Under the legacy system you could only get one fast pass every 2 hours unless you immediately used said fast pass(ie the window to use it was soon enough). So how would only 10% of guests gobble up toy story , soarin or what ever ride you wish to insert that had passes run out by 11 am? Not possible! The 10% number was thrown out by Disney itself. Should we question it? Sure, they are now pushing a newer system that highly benefits them not the consumer. They are going to tell you it's better whether it is or not. After all they have billions invested. It is also amazing how people are now touting it as being able to sleep in now and couldn't before. You are getting one premium ride(tier1) and 2 rides that probably had low waits before this new incarnation. Your paying dearly in secondary waits for this one tier 1 ride. The other funny thing is many of the plus promoters now admit rope drop is a very good strategy again. Interesting!

 

[hoosll]

One thing I feel promotes satisfaction and FP+ is the length of the visitor's stay. Anecdotally, it seems that people who stay 6-7 nights seem to like the new system better. Think of it as 18-21 FPs under the new system. People who stay 4-5 nights have 12-15 FPs yes, you may get additional FPs, but they will not be for e-ticket rides. We drive to WDW, so that is 2 days going and 2 days returning; we used to be able to have a satisfactory visit of 4 days with park hoppers and ride our favorite rides (as annual or biannual visitors, we have favorites) ... with parties and attraction tiering, FP limits/availability, and ADR cancelation penalty, it no longer seems satisfying to invest the travel time and $$$$ to visit any more.

 

[flicx]

Does anyone think that without FP that all lines would be shorter? Would space be an average of 50 mins vs 95? Would HM and POTC go back to an average of 20-30 vs 45-60?

Yes, I do and I don't think you can argue that on many of the people eater rides that now have fast pass that didn't before.

 

[glamdring269]

We haven't been since last October 2014 and don't plan to return until October 2016. I really hope it isn't a lot worse than our last trip. We were great with the paper system and managed to adjust ok through good use of RD/EMH & FP+. We are just really good at maximizing time/efficiency and absolutely despise and refuse to wait in long lines. I'd rather walk for 30 minutes than stand still for 30 minutes.

I'm genuinely hoping we won't be disappointed when we return next year. Hearing stories that October is worse than ever before is just not a good thing to hear.