Why wait times have gotten crazy

[havoc315]

A little OT, but, the more I think about it, does anyone think that Disney will soon make FP + a resort guest only feature? Seems like it could be a major selling point in the on-site, off-site decision. Would allow them to almost do away with all discounts, which they seem to be weaning us off of anyway. I just don't understand the need for a FP at ETWB, IASW, Barnstormer, Dumbo.......

They will face a public relations revolt..... Especially having started giving it, if they take it away. You will hear, "Disney doesn't care about families who can't afford on site"

But they might have to do something.... And even though they would get some bad publicity, you might see a change like, 2 FPs for off-site, 3 FPs for onsite, and 4 FPs for on-site Club level guests. Or some other changes, like a tiered system for offsite and non-tiered for onsite.

 

[havoc315]

I think they would have done it already. I thought they were going to keep prebooking for onsite only then same-day for offsite. But then they added it. I imagine it's a fine balance between rewarding onsite stays and alienating offside too much, whether local APs or offsite tourists.

As far as I know, Disney is the only park that comes close to treating on-site the same as off-site. At Universal, their "Fast" system is included for on-site guests, and an extra charge for off-site guests.

But having already been "equal," Disney would face anger if they suddenly took it away.

 

[Candlelady]

A little OT, but, the more I think about it, does anyone think that Disney will soon make FP + a resort guest only feature? Seems like it could be a major selling point in the on-site, off-site decision. Would allow them to almost do away with all discounts, which they seem to be weaning us off of anyway. I just don't understand the need for a FP at ETWB, IASW, Barnstormer, Dumbo.......

I doubt it. They know they are leaving money on the table.
I think eventually you will either paying for extra passes or they will create different classes of FP+. Hope not, but...

 

[dlavender]

I think they would have done it already. I thought they were going to keep prebooking for onsite only then same-day for offsite. But then they added it. I imagine it's a fine balance between rewarding onsite stays and alienating offside too much, whether local APs or offsite tourists.

Very true. I hope you are right. It just seems they are creating a product that really has no need. I would rather wait 50 mins for a headliner, 20 mins for Little Mermaid and ETWB, and 45 mins for PP vs what we have today - three 15-20 minute FP waits, and then 40 minute waits everywhere else (which is modest as others have shown 60 min waits for HM and POTC). Maybe I am wrong. Maybe without FP stand by's wouldn't be this low.

 

[MarieKat]

During my trip (1st week of October 2015) the posted wait times often seemed inflated. I saw posted wait times of 20 minutes on rides I got on in 10. I never waited more than 25 min for a ride, and that one had a posted wait time of 40. Peter Pan had a posted time of 70 min and we were on in 20. One ride has a posted time of 20 and it was a walk-on. So who knows.

 

[mom2rtk]

#1 is easily fixable. #2 is more troublesome.

That assumes of course that Disney wants to fix number 1.

 

[revdon64]

I don't have hard data prepared to back this up, but it seems to me that as each season passes, the discounts offered on Disney resorts seem to be less and less, harder to get, and with more strings attached. This would suggest Disney is less desperate to fill vacant rooms, which would suggest there are less vacant rooms, which would suggest there are more people in the parks.

take that for what it's worth. it's just another thing to think about. As far as I know, Disney does not release attendance figures so I don't know why Len is so certain he should be operating under the assumption that there aren't more people in the park.

This is kind of dead on from what I'm hearing. DW called yesterday to see if there were any recent discounts for our stay coming up. The CM she talked to said that there are usually some for the time of our upcoming trip but nothing has been released this year and it would have been out already if it were coming. Says to me that they don't need to give away food or rooms if they're already full enough to surpass expenses.

 

[havoc315]

This is kind of dead on from what I'm hearing. DW called yesterday to see if there were any recent discounts for our stay coming up. The CM she talked to said that there are usually some for the time of our upcoming trip but nothing has been released this year and it would have been out already if it were coming. Says to me that they don't need to give away food or rooms if they're already full enough to surpass expenses.

You're going early December?

There was a discount, but the window is closed now:

http://www.mousesavers.com/historical-information-on-walt-disney-world-resort-discounts/#2015

 

[dlavender]

This is kind of dead on from what I'm hearing. DW called yesterday to see if there were any recent discounts for our stay coming up. The CM she talked to said that there are usually some for the time of our upcoming trip but nothing has been released this year and it would have been out already if it were coming. Says to me that they don't need to give away food or rooms if they're already full enough to surpass expenses.

Looking at room reservations for another possible stay in February, for our dates, there are no All Stars or Pop rooms available! This is the first I've ever noticed that. From 2/3-2/7.

 

[WIcruizer]

I wonder if there's any data to support this theory. Could it be that onsite guests spend more time inside the parks, and use attractions more than offsite guests? Because they have done a great job of filling up their resorts year-round with "free" dining plan and other promotions.

That would explain why single digit increases in attendance "feels" like more than that. Maybe off-site guests arrive later (in general), leave earlier, may not plan as much so don't use as many attractions. Could be they leave to get dinner off-site, decide not to driver back in...for example. Just a theory, no idea if this is reality.

Also, keep in mind single digit increases in attendance add up after a few years. So, for those of us that don't go every year, or multiple times a year, could very well be that it's up 15% or more, which would be noticeable.

 

[havoc315]

I wonder if there's any data to support this theory. Could it be that onsite guests spend more time inside the parks, and use attractions more than offsite guests? Because they have done a great job of filling up their resorts year-round with "free" dining plan and other promotions.

That would explain why single digit increases in attendance "feels" like more than that. Maybe off-site guests arrive later (in general), leave earlier, may not plan as much so don't use as many attractions. Could be they leave to get dinner off-site, decide not to driver back in...for example. Just a theory, no idea if this is reality.

Also, keep in mind single digit increases in attendance add up after a few years. So, for those of us that don't go every year, or multiple times a year, could very well be that it's up 15% or more, which would be noticeable.

Again, the resort attendance is nearly constant. So even if on-site guests spend more time at the park -- there are approximately the same number of on-site guests in 2015 as in 2014 as in 2013. (they just are able to get the same number, with less discounts). No new on-site hotels have opened in the last few years. There has been a little additional DVC, but not enough to bring a huge increase.

http://touringplans.com/walt-disney-world/hotels/number-rooms -- Disney World has 30,000 hotel rooms onsite. Assuming an average of 3 guests per room, that would be about 90,000 people at 100% occupancy.
So let's say they did increase from 90% to 95% -- that would be an increase from 81,000 on-site guests to 85,000. Spread those 4,000 people out between 4 parks, water parks, etc, etc... Maybe up to 2000 extra bodies in Magic Kingdom. That's just not enough to cause massive increased waits. According to touringplans, the jump in wait times is the equivalent of adding an extra 8,000 to 10,000 people to Magic Kingdom.

Now..... the 2% per year theory.... leading up to 15%...... The thing is, the jump is very very noticeable to people who do go every year. This is the first fall where the waits have been so ridiculous. I suppose it's possible that Disney World was able to handle the 2% increase each year after year... but then suddenly, this year... they suddenly crossed a threshold where the damn broke. Kinda.... Magic Kingdom can handle 60,000 guests with no issue, but as soon as you hit 61,000, it creates massive headaches.

As suggested in the touringplans article, the most likely explanation is some change in how Disney manages the crowds, but I suppose we can't completely discount that its due to some actual attendance increase.

 

[Reimagineer]

I think one of the key reasons the parks "feel" more crowded, and this was referenced on the blog post cited earlier, is that the FP+ system has gobbled up so much of the ride capacity the standby lines never move. This results in the long standby wait times which actually repel people from the line and keep it kind of short. The FP+ lines themselves don't hold people for long, so where you used to have a lot of the crowd physically tied up in the lines, they are now out in the park making it feel more crowded.

We used to have a great system with the old FP's...we'd have a runner to go get more FP's and mixed with a good touring plan we'd hit everything we wanted in a day, especially since the second tier rides still had reasonable waits.

Has anyone had success with a FP+ runner handling kiosk duties?

 

[Mkrop]

I think one of the key reasons the parks "feel" more crowded, and this was referenced on the blog post cited earlier, is that the FP+ system has gobbled up so much of the ride capacity the standby lines never move. This results in the long standby wait times which actually repel people from the line and keep it kind of short. The FP+ lines themselves don't hold people for long, so where you used to have a lot of the crowd physically tied up in the lines, they are now out in the park making it feel more crowded.

We used to have a great system with the old FP's...we'd have a runner to go get more FP's and mixed with a good touring plan we'd hit everything we wanted in a day, especially since the second tier rides still had reasonable waits.

Has anyone had success with a FP+ runner handling kiosk duties?

We rarely used a runner before but we have now bc the kiosks lines are so long and congested. DS18 would run ahead, grab anything for the 4 of us, and then come back to an out of the way spot, so that we could then decide as a family what we wanted to do next.

 

[Planogirl]

I bet that it's a combination of 1 and 2 also. You have more people that might have been waiting in line at the headliners holding FP+ now so they can get in other lines. At the same time those who don't have FP+ for the ride wait longer because there are more FP people who have priority. Plus Disney can adjust staffing as they wish to.

I doubt that people are staying longer. If anything they might be purposely escaping the crowds because they have their desired rides locked in and can go do other things.

 

[AtlantaDisneyDreamer]

I had my first experience with FP + last Saturday. Overall, seemed like an ok system. I noticed the biggest problem with it at the Enchanted Tales with Belle. We were in a 20 min stand by line, which ended up being 40. The stand by line just sits there, while they let all the FP people walk in, when that line is clear, then they let some stand by through. Im pretty sure those FP's were most of those people's 4th or 5th FP's. Seems like it was an inefficient way to load, and unnecessary to have a FP for that attraction. Instead of a walk on for 20 people, and a 40 minute wait for 60 people, it could have been a 15 min wait for everyone. 6 of one, half dozen of the other I guess. All in all, doesn't seem like a terrible system, but seems like after the headliners, the system is inefficient. I wonder what the park would look like with no FP? I also watched Buzz jump from a 40 to a 70 min wait in a matter of 10 mins as the FP crowd all showed up at once. On Space, instead of having one side for FP and one side for stand by, would the total wait be 50 mins vs 90 stand by, if there was no FP?

Excellent point. Similar experience with us at Disney Junior. We were with about 20 people waiting in the standby line for the last Disney Junior Show of the Day. We were about a minute away from door opening when hoards of people began showing up in the fastpass line. It seemed to me that there were over 100 people with fastpasses and 20 of us without them. We had to stand there and wait for all the fastpassers to get into the theater until we were let in. This is no longer a Fastpass. It is a ride reservation. And like ADRs, it may be that if this system continues as is, we will need a fastpass in hand or we should not even bother.

I think the 4th and 5th fastpasses are greatly increasing wait times at the minor attractions.

I think #2 of the original post is fixable. No more than 3 FPs per day for anyone. Fewer FPs given out as "So sorry you had 30 seconds of inconvenience on your vacation" door prizes. The FP system is a wonderful concept, but when FPs are given out freely and in massive quantities, it blows the point of the entire system.

 

[ArwenMarie]

I think the moral of the story is Standby is truly Standby now.

 

[havoc315]

Some interesting points.

To the extent it has unofficially become a ride reservation system, maybe they should just go all the way and make it a full reservation system.
With a computer engineering the crowds... Give everyone 10 attractions in 20-30 minute Windows. No standby lines at all. You get on the ride when you're scheduled. The schedule is built on capacity.

"Hello Smith family, you are scheduled for the following 10 magical attractions....
We are sorry we could not fit your requests for X and Y into your itinerary for this date."

I know it sounds ridiculous, but is it truly more ridiculous than what we are seeing now.

 

[AtlantaDisneyDreamer]

Some interesting points.

To the extent it has unofficially become a ride reservation system, maybe they should just go all the way and make it a full reservation system. H
With a computer engineering the crowds... Give everyone 10 attractions in 20-30 minute Windows. No standby lines at all. You get on the ride when you're scheduled. The schedule is built on capacity.

"Hello Smith family, you are scheduled for the following 10 magical attractions....
We are sorry we could not fit your requests for X and Y into your itinerary for this date."

I know it sounds ridiculous, but is it truly more ridiculous than what we are seeing now.

While that system you propose is not ideal, I certainly prefer it to arriving at the park and realizing no attraction is worth the posted wait time- which is essentially what happened the last few times I visited Six Flags and finally just gave up and stopped going.

 

[Farps]

I don't think that number one has anything to do with it, I have worked in a theme park and most of the rides as long as they are being loaded efficiently are going to maximize the amount of guests that can pass through. And being at Disney multiple time I can see that the cast members are very good at loading and unloading rides. And some rides like PP, HM, and WInnie the pooh load guests constantly. I would have to say that many many guests that would have never used the old fast pass system are getting educated by Disney and the internet and using the new FP+ system. Thus more people in fast pass lines and a higher ratio of fast pass+ guests to regular standby guests.

 

[flicx]

I have worked in a theme park and most of the rides as long as they are being loaded efficiently are going to maximize the amount of guests that can pass through.

Here is a huge culprit that is often overlooked. So many rides that loaded efficiently in the past that didn't have fast pass now do. Thus we now have decreased efficiency and now higher wait times!