Why wait times have gotten crazy

[ArwenMarie]

I kind of just shared why I think that in that post. What are your thoughts on which group rides more?

I said the $, not the value. If you are saying people don't seek out the best value to them and their family, I'd disagree. But "value" will be different to everyone. Staying offsite is a way to save money if the tradeoff of the perks not gotten does not lead to less overall value to the consumer.

I don't think there is any way to know who rides more. Disney knows but I can't see how any other assumptions can be made.

I also don't think you can assume who is spending more overall on their vacations. Now spending more at WDW, yes, we can assume the onsiter is spending more on the whole, that's why WDW gives them a 60-day FP window.

 

[MrInfinity]

I don't think there is any way to know who rides more. Disney knows but I can't see how any other assumptions can be made.

Of course nobody knows for sure. Is your position that if you do not absolutely know something then it should not be talked about? That's why we're here.

I also don't think you can assume who is spending more overall on their vacations. Now spending more at WDW, yes, we can assume the onsiter is spending more on the whole, that's why WDW gives them a 60-day FP window.

Again, no assumption, just conversation. It's a chat board... I would agree with you that the onsite guests spend more on average, but the question was about who rides more. I thought it was an interesting topic.

One thing for sure is that by the addition of magic bands, Disney can get better data on this question.

 

[ArwenMarie]

Of course nobody knows for sure. Is your position that if you do not absolutely know something then it should not be talked about? That's why we're here.

Again, no assumption, just conversation. It's a chat board... I would agree with you that the onsite guests spend more on average, but the question was about who rides more. I thought it was an interesting topic.

Of course not! I just didn't get all of your assumptions, I could come up with equal assumptions the others way and make the opposite argument. Why does it matter who rides more again? Maybe I am just confusing myself now lol

 

[DizneyLizzy]

I have to believe that he is correct in that there are not thousands more people actually entering the parks each day in fall this year than in past years. I went in September, during one of the weeks that saw "historically high wait times for that week" according to Touring Plans. Since I'm usually a busy season visitor, the wait times didn't seem abnormal to me, but they were higher than I expected given that I was going during one of the slower weeks of the year.

That being said, you know what DID seem empty? My resort, my resort pool, my resort buses, the walkways in the parks, the bathrooms, and pretty much everything other than attraction lines. Most times, my friends and I were the only ones in the bathroom we were using, and on more than one occasion, we were the only 4 people on a bus to or from a park. We didn't even see bus lines at park closings. Restaurants were full bc it was a free dining week, but other than restaurants and attractions, everywhere else seemed empty. It was very different than what I'm used to in March or June...when the lines are just as long if not longer, but buses, resorts, and walkways are also packed. BUT...according to TP, EasyWDW, etc, the crowds were high if measured by attraction wait times, not only relatively high for September, but HIGH. So I am anxious to see what TP comes up with.

 

[MrInfinity]

Of course not! I just didn't get all of your assumptions, I could come up with equal assumptions the others way and make the opposite argument. Why does it matter who rides more again? Maybe I am just confusing myself now lol

It doesn't really matter... I'm just interested in stats and trends, and for sure it is a significant metric to Disney...

And just because you could make the opposite argument does not mean that is what you believe. I could make an argument for either way. The one I believe is the one I posted. But I do think it's close.

 

[ELSA711]

I have yet to experience the crazy wait times everyone is talking about. We went October 2014 for the first time with FP+ and it was amazing! We had the best trip and rode more with FP+ then ever before.
Now it could be that we just are getting better planning our meals, shows, etc. But we loved it so much we booked again to go this year. Time will tell if we have the same success as it's a different week but we are so excited to be back in WDW two years in a row when this was going to be an 'off' year!

 

[Planogirl]

Assumptions can be dangerous. I personally believe that those who stay onsite want to ride things just as much as those who stay offsite. Generally speaking. There are no stats that indicate anything though so I can't prove this. It's just likely to me.

As for money spent, there is a potential large pool of offsite people that spend a fair amount offsite. There are too many nice offsite resorts that seem to survive just fine so I won't assume that everyone stays offsite only to save money. I would guess that often it comes down to whether the Disney amenities mean more to the traveler than the offsite amenities which can also be considerable. Disney would probably love to tap into that group more than they do.

It's fun to conjecture about all of this but of course none of us really know.

 

[flicx]

Sure it did, but it increased satisfaction for more guests than it decreased. Only around 10% of people actually used FP- to get 5 or more rides, so we're only talking about a small % that are truly put out.

This is pure conjecture. The 10% number is almost laughable! What the actual number is no one will ever know as Disney will never put it out. Why? They are promoting a system that isn't in place to help guests, it a system to help their bottom line. The guest satisfaction is secondary. That's my opinion.

 

[dlavender]

This is pure conjecture. The 10% number is almost laughable! What the actual number is no one will ever know as Disney will never put it out. Why? They are promoting a system that isn't in place to help guests, it a system to help their bottom line. The guest satisfaction is secondary. That's my opinion.

I don't have the data to back me up (only Disney has this), but I still think that they created a product with no real need. They've created a demand when one wasn't really necessary, IMO. If rides were running at full capacity with no FP's, I think the overall experience would be better for everyone. Maybe I am completely off on this. Perhaps the main purpose of the FP + system is to merely lock people into reserving their tickets in advance, vs. day of or two week out purchases. I have to think with the huge investment in the infrastructure, however, that they feel that there is a greater purpose. Perhaps it is to give those who like to meander around a real chance at riding a few headliners, like some of the bigger spenders who do not do RD and partake in the dessert parties and the finer things in life....

 

[kittyab]

We were there last week and the stand by lines were insane. Basically if we didn't have a fast pass and the line was over 20 minutes we walked away.

But I will say the parks were packed, high attendance with the fast pass system will make the standby lines a longer wait.

 

[3DisneyFanz]

I don't have the data to back me up (only Disney has this), but I still think that they created a product with no real need. They've created a demand when one wasn't really necessary, IMO. If rides were running at full capacity with no FP's, I think the overall experience would be better for everyone. Maybe I am completely off on this. Perhaps the main purpose of the FP + system is to merely lock people into reserving their tickets in advance, vs. day of or two week out purchases. I have to think with the huge investment in the infrastructure, however, that they feel that there is a greater purpose. Perhaps it is to give those who like to meander around a real chance at riding a few headliners, like some of the bigger spenders who do not do RD and partake in the dessert parties and the finer things in life....

I think the main purpose was to push people into things like Laugh Floor in an attempt to avoid adding things people might actually want to do. It would have been a lot cheaper to add new attractions than rubber bracelets.

 

[flicx]

I don't have the data to back me up (only Disney has this), but I still think that they created a product with no real need. They've created a demand when one wasn't really necessary, IMO. If rides were running at full capacity with no FP's, I think the overall experience would be better for everyone. Maybe I am completely off on this. Perhaps the main purpose of the FP + system is to merely lock people into reserving their tickets in advance, vs. day of or two week out purchases. I have to think with the huge investment in the infrastructure, however, that they feel that there is a greater purpose. Perhaps it is to give those who like to meander around a real chance at riding a few headliners, like some of the bigger spenders who do not do RD and partake in the dessert parties and the finer things in life....

This all sounds reasonable to me! There was no real need for plus from a consumer standpoint. Data since reflects this. Ride times are now longer. Legacy worked well and Disney still reverts back to it for short periods on things. I think Disney has built a system that is terribly flawed and has too much invested to turn back now.

 

[3DisneyFanz]

A little OT, but, the more I think about it, does anyone think that Disney will soon make FP + a resort guest only feature? Seems like it could be a major selling point in the on-site, off-site decision. Would allow them to almost do away with all discounts, which they seem to be weaning us off of anyway. I just don't understand the need for a FP at ETWB, IASW, Barnstormer, Dumbo.......

They had to put it on the other attractions because the system was designed to push you to those things. You may not have any real interest in Dumbo but if they suggest it people will take it and when they take they may ride it. This is more apparent in EPCOT where they added FP to Journey Into Immagination which never had a line before but has experienced SB times of 30 minutes plus now. Since you are so restricted at EPCOT they are just trying to push people on mediocre attractions so that people feel better about doing something when they get shut out of other things.

 

[3DisneyFanz]

Some interesting points.

To the extent it has unofficially become a ride reservation system, maybe they should just go all the way and make it a full reservation system.
With a computer engineering the crowds... Give everyone 10 attractions in 20-30 minute Windows. No standby lines at all. You get on the ride when you're scheduled. The schedule is built on capacity.

"Hello Smith family, you are scheduled for the following 10 magical attractions....
We are sorry we could not fit your requests for X and Y into your itinerary for this date."

I know it sounds ridiculous, but is it truly more ridiculous than what we are seeing now.

I've thought all along this was the end goal but they aren't going to give it to you. This will most likely be another version of the VIP tour where you tell them what you want and they tell you how much to pay for that plan.

 

[cygnusx1jg]

My opinion---FP+ should get you on the ride in less time than waiting in the standby line. Nothing more. Depending on the attraction and the circumstances at the time, the castmembers should be trained to adjust the ratio of standby versus fastpass guests they let go on the ride.

 

[GreatLakes]

Wasn't a big part of the reason for FP+ so that Disney could right size their staffing?

I think MM+ as a whole was implemented for a variety of reasons and one of them is better forecasting which would have the benefit of better management of staffing.

But it feels like the FP+ system increased satisfaction for some people, by taking it away from others.

I remember a discussion between Len and Jim Hill about guest satisfaction surveys. Disney noticed a correlation between the number of Legacy FPs used guest satisfaction. They also saw that a large number of people used none while a small number of people used multiples. Spreading the passes more equally via a different distribution system, which became FP+, would logically increase guest satisfaction for a larger number of people in comparison to those who would see a decrease in satisfaction due to a lower rate of FP usage.

A little OT, but, the more I think about it, does anyone think that Disney will soon make FP + a resort guest only feature? Seems like it could be a major selling point in the on-site, off-site decision. Would allow them to almost do away with all discounts, which they seem to be weaning us off of anyway. I just don't understand the need for a FP at ETWB, IASW, Barnstormer, Dumbo.......

I don't think FP+ will ever be for onsite only. They could, and I would argue should, tier the FP+ allotment based not only on being onsite but on resort level, number of days, and a host of other variables.

This would make for an interesting study! I can see lots of offsetting factors...

You'll have some offsiters who are staying close by and are "going to Disney World" as the intent of their trip. I would guess these are bargain hunters who are maximizing their $ by staying offsite and plan to ride a lot... Then you've got offsiters who are going down to go to Florida, visit family, or for work, and are planning to do Disney, but not as the primary focus of their trip. These guests probably do not set out to ride a whole lot. And then you've got locals, who are probably trying to get in a lot of rides too, for having gone lots of times.

For onsiters, you have a similar division... some who go fairly planned and trying to maximize their days, and others who go as more of a vacation. I think the latter group here is larger than the former.

So overall, I think offsite guests, on average, set out to ride more rides than onsite guests -- but I think it's really close.

The entire MM+ project was implemented for one reason, analytics. I have no doubt that Disney is using the data gathered by the system to generate detailed analytics for guests to answer exactly these types of questions. They will no doubt be comparing the touring styles of onsite vs offsite along with a whole host of other categorical comparisons to better monetize every guest.

I don't have the data to back me up (only Disney has this), but I still think that they created a product with no real need. They've created a demand when one wasn't really necessary, IMO. If rides were running at full capacity with no FP's, I think the overall experience would be better for everyone. Maybe I am completely off on this. Perhaps the main purpose of the FP + system is to merely lock people into reserving their tickets in advance, vs. day of or two week out purchases. I have to think with the huge investment in the infrastructure, however, that they feel that there is a greater purpose. Perhaps it is to give those who like to meander around a real chance at riding a few headliners, like some of the bigger spenders who do not do RD and partake in the dessert parties and the finer things in life....

Which product are you talking about, MM+ of FP+? The greater purpose of MM+ is analytics. Building a huge data warehouse has nothing but positive business implications provided you have the determination to use it correctly. The greater purpose of FP+, beyond being one of the input pathways for that data, is really anyone's guess. It could be a marketing tool to be used to down the road with a tiering system, it could be a tool for spreading the FP allotment more evenly and closing that satisfaction gap I mentioned earlier, or it could be a few other things. Without being on the project I can't really know for sure but am confident that there is good data being gathered by all aspects of the MM+ project including FP+.

 

[Planogirl]

My opinion---FP+ should get you on the ride in less time than waiting in the standby line. Nothing more. Depending on the attraction and the circumstances at the time, the castmembers should be trained to adjust the ratio of standby versus fastpass guests they let go on the ride.

That's a pretty limited statement. In theory the FP+ could get you on say in 30 minutes versus 45 for standby. I personally wouldn't be very happy with that and like you said hopefully the CM's would adjust to avoid that as much as possible.

 

[havoc315]

My opinion---FP+ should get you on the ride in less time than waiting in the standby line. Nothing more. Depending on the attraction and the circumstances at the time, the castmembers should be trained to adjust the ratio of standby versus fastpass guests they let go on the ride.

That would anger people even more..... If your FP+ for Mine Coaster was still 45 minutes, while the standby was 60 minutes. Now, at times the ratio might have to be adjusted a little bit.... one thing to ask the FP+ line to wait 5-10 minutes, while the standby line is at 2 hours.
But if you're telling people of the big benefit for FP+... getting people to book them 30-6o days in advance.. getting people to stay onsite, partially with the promise of selecting your FP times 30 days earlier... If it merely saved you a few minutes, it would defeat the whole point.

 

[lentesta]

Does anyone know how this is impacting the Lines app? We have used it in the past as a tool to adjust our touring plan as we go in the parks.

Lines' estimates get updated every 5 minutes once the park opens, based on what's actually happening in the park on that day. Any touring plan you optimize in the park also gets the updated estimates. In that respect, those are two more "safety nets" in case the original forecast is off. So yeah, keep using that (and thanks!).

If you look at any attraction graph on past dates for the crowd calendar, the blue line shows the prediction before the park opened, and the red line is the prediction updated as the day goes on. The purple line is the posted wait.

Also, thanks to everyone for the ideas.

 

[cygnusx1jg]

I think I need to elaborate my above post. As an example, on TSMM, the standby line is, let's say, 60 minutes. But if you have a fast pass, you'd wait, say 5 minutes. Let more standby go than what it is now so that the 60 becomes 40 and less FP+ so that it's wait becomes 10-15 minutes. I'd rather have more standby lines become shorter than have three rides be immediate.