Why not to buy into Poly 1 but maybe Poly 2 / Those Darn Bungalows !!!!

[tjkraz]

I absolutely think there are 20 cash guests willing to do that! Look at the rates for a normal room at Poly or GF.... It amazes me people pay them, but they seem to sell enough of them! A regular room at those resorts sometimes isn't too far away from $1,000.

Are there 20 high-rollers with no budget constraints on WDW property at any given time? Of course.

But their lodging options include thousands of rooms at a dozen Disney Deluxe + DVC resorts, club level rooms, suites, grand villas, Waldorf, Four Seasons, etc. It seems ridiculous to portray these Poly Bungalows as simultaneously being an ill-conceived waste of DVC points that "nobody" ever uses, while also some grand conspiracy by Disney to make millions from breakage revenue due to peak demand from cash guests.

There are millions of people out there will ing to pay cash while only a limited amount of DVC owners who actually have enough points (1000) to do a week at a Bungalow . Who knows Disney may even give those away to VIPS for favors.

See above. Cash guests have dozens of resorts and thousands of rooms to choose from. I see no reason to believe that cash guests would be more inclined to stay there than DVC members. Not when cash guests can choose club level suites at the Poly, Beach Club, Grand Floridian and others for less money.

 

[tjkraz]

...the bungalows are indeed being booked currently within the 7 month window and a pretty high rate outside of the breakage period that leads me to believe that most people bookign the bungalows are from other resorts.

That's not the least bit surprising and I would have never argued otherwise. It goes without saying that there are many other DVC resorts / room types which would display similar trends. We could probably have a more meaningful debate about the overall impact of the 1770 One bedroom villas at WDW or the 128 Grand Villas rather than the 20 bungalows.

Are the bungalows overpriced? Yes.

Are they routinely 100% booked by Poly owners? Absolutely not. But that doesn't make them any different than many other DVC accommodations.

Nearly every DVC resort has high-priced Grand Villas, Cabins, Beach Cottages, etc. Including the Bungalows there are 174 such DVC villas at WDW alone. The Bungalows may at-or-near the top of that list price-wise, and they accommodate fewer guests than Grand Villas. But arguing a position of "nobody has enough points to stay in the Bungalows" is just wrong.

 

[Yankee626]

That's not the least bit surprising and I would have never argued otherwise. It goes without saying that there are many other DVC resorts / room types which would display similar trends. We could probably have a more meaningful debate about the overall impact of the 1770 One bedroom villas at WDW or the 128 Grand Villas rather than the 20 bungalows.

Are the bungalows overpriced? Yes.

Are they routinely 100% booked by Poly owners? Absolutely not. But that doesn't make them any different than many other DVC accommodations.

Nearly every DVC resort has high-priced Grand Villas, Cabins, Beach Cottages, etc. Including the Bungalows there are 174 such DVC villas at WDW alone. The Bungalows may at-or-near the top of that list price-wise, and they accommodate fewer guests than Grand Villas. But arguing a position of "nobody has enough points to stay in the Bungalows" is just wrong.

How many GV @ the VGF or BWV or CCV or BLT? I think 2 or 3 each resort and they are hard to get. OKW and SSR has many but at a lot lower point total. Even the cabins at CCV are about 200 points per week cheaper than the Bungalows. I'm not so sure the 1 bedrooms are a waste. They fill up and many people love the fact they could cook meals and do laundry in their Villas. This was the original intent and selling point of DVC ; I know because I went on the original DVC Tour in 1993. Its not the 20 Bungalows that are the problem just the 1.1 million points that are tied into them that are maybe 50% used by DVC owners at best. I'm not sure if there is a way to break down point usage vs cash usage for these units. I'm not saying they shouldn't have been built but just not added to the DVC inventory. Disney used the DVC money to build them then rent out most of them for cash . No real benefit for Poly Owners.

 

[CarolynFH]

How many GV @ the VGF or BWV or CCV or BLT? I think 2 or 3 each resort and they are hard to get.

You’re a little off there - VGF has 6, BWV has 7, CCV has 4, BLT has 14.

OKW and SSR has many

Yep, OKW has 27, SSR has 36.

 

[tjkraz]

How many GV @ the VGF or BWV or CCV or BLT? I think 2 or 3 each resort

31 at those 4 resorts combined, plus 26 cabins at Copper Creek.

Its not the 20 Bungalows that are the problem just the 1.1 million points that are tied into them that are maybe 50% used by DVC owners at best.

At least we've moved on from your assertion that "nobody" uses them. And @crvetter's post suggests member utilization is higher than 50%.

At the end of the day, unless members' points are expiring because there are ZERO (desirable) villas available to book anywhere in the system, it really doesn't matter where the excess capacity exists. Unbooked bungalows = people who aren't using their points. The reasons for that are many, and having additional villas elsewhere really wouldn't change things.

 

[crvetter]

How many GV @ the VGF or BWV or CCV or BLT? I think 2 or 3 each resort and they are hard to get. OKW and SSR has many but at a lot lower point total. Even the cabins at CCV are about 200 points per week cheaper than the Bungalows. I'm not so sure the 1 bedrooms are a waste. They fill up and many people love the fact they could cook meals and do laundry in their Villas. This was the original intent and selling point of DVC ; I know because I went on the original DVC Tour in 1993. Its not the 20 Bungalows that are the problem just the 1.1 million points that are tied into them that are maybe 50% used by DVC owners at best. I'm not sure if there is a way to break down point usage vs cash usage for these units. I'm not saying they shouldn't have been built but just not added to the DVC inventory. Disney used the DVC money to build them then rent out most of them for cash . No real benefit for Poly Owners.

We know for the entire 11 month window about 50% are booked that’s including February, March, April and May that can’t be booked by other owners yet which sit at 99% vacant about. Within that 7 month window we actually see a pretty high occupancy rate.

Those numbers are actual facts on the current bookings scraped directly from the member site. They aren’t opinions or based on anecdotal experiences.

I agree with your statement they don’t really benefit Poly owners, but they do benefit DVC as while, look at September, it’s booked 92% or November it’s booked 75%. That’s not 75% of the days with no availability that’s 75% of the bungalows are booked on average each day, I’d say that’s very high percentage.

Unfortunately at the time with no resale restrictions I think Disney did make decisions to benefit the entire DVC system with Poly (and the Resort Studios at VGF) being mostly studios. That doesn’t benefit Poly either but it does certainly benefit DVC at large given the high interest in studios. Resale restrictions make it very important now to buy into resorts that have a balance of rooms that interest you.

 

[DanCali]

They add about 1.1 million points to the system in Total.

1.1 million points is about 55,000 for each of the 20 bungalows. The current list price at PVB for direct buy is $250/point, but let's call it $220. So, here's an artificial sales pitch to demonstrate the situation:

• Buy 55,000 points a lakefront bungalow for $12,000,000 and stay in it year-round. It's now your home!
• Your HOA dues ($8/point/year) will be $440,000/year or "only" about $37,000/month.
• Your HOA dues have grown last year at 7%-8%. At that rate they will double every 10 years.
• If that HOA dues growth rate sounds like a lot, it really is! That means $128/point in 40 years.
• At that point we'll do you a favor and take your home away from you, so you don't bankrupt your kids!
• WELCOME HOME!!

(P.S. Clearly a 7%+ dues growth rate is not realistic over time. At 4% annual dues growth, dues will be $36/pt in 40 years)
(P.S This type of math probably makes AKV value studios also seem expensive for what they are. DVC is pricy!)

 

[crvetter]

P.S. Clearly a 7%+ dues growth rate is not realistic over time. At 4% annual dues growth, dues will be $36 in 40 years)

Probably a good thing they don’t (or never have) grow at 7% year over year. PVB alone has grown at 3.5% year over year.

Also assuming inflation is kept at 2% per the mandate of the central bank. Then you really only see an excess increase of 1.5% but the true answer is to take the excess growth over inflation and then average that number instead not the difference of the averages.

Buy 55,000 points a lakefront bungalow for $12,000,000 and stay in it year-round. It's now your home!

I mean not sure ever the sales pitch would be like that. Like you said even a studios on property would be cost prohibitive. It just takes além interested to book some days which seems to be case currently.

 

[Sandisw]

There are millions of people out there will ing to pay cash while only a limited amount of DVC owners who actually have enough points (1000) to do a week at a Bungalow . Who knows Disney may even give those away to VIPS for favors.

DVC owners are indeed booking them though as they do disappear…but my guess is many do them for a few nights and not an entire trip.

We plan to do just a few nights next year, and spend the rest in a 2 bedrooms for our big family trip since my DIL wants to try them.

 

[DanCali]

I mean not sure ever the sales pitch would be like that.

I agree. I was trying to be sarcastic just to illustrate the ridiculousness of the situation.

That said, it is possible in other timeshare systems to buy enough weeks (resale of course) to live on the ocean in Hawaii year-round and make it affordable for someone affluent, without making it sound like a parody.

For example, a resale 2BR week at Marriott Ko Olina is about $13K for Ocean View and $9K for Mountain View (probably double to triple for fixed weeks 51 and 52). If you buy 52 of those weeks, you effectively own a 2BR oceanview condo for about $700,000, and those deeds are perpetual (what would a condo like that in HI cost to actually buy from a developer? Maybe $3-4 million?) You're still paying dues of $2800/week or about $145,000/year, but that's about 1/3 of the 2BR DVC bungalows, which also puts it a bit in perspective. If you buy 55,000 Poly resale points and live there year-round you'd still be paying $7-$8 million upfront and the $440,000 in annual dues, and it's guaranteed to end up worthless in 2066...

 

[gmi3804]

I don’t see how the kind of person who could comfortably spend that kind of money on a Bungalow stay would choose that accommodation over one of the nicer places in the area (Four Seasons, Waldorf=Astoria, etc.), unless it’s “for the kids.” They’re not that big, and not that nice, at least proportionately for the tariff. I don’t see much quality difference between any of the finishes (hard or soft, wear and tear notwithstanding) amongst any of the DVC properties. Maybe Aulani’s are a tiny bit nicer, but not by much.

 

[PinkPixel]

Another case against the "made these to rent" is that the cash :: points ratio is quite low in the Bungalows.

Disney has X number of points to rent out at Poly each year, their path to maximize their rental revenue is to get the highest $ per point. At the Poly (and most of DVC) the highest cash :: points ratio is a Studio.

Some figures:

• Poly SV Studio
  • Average 2024 Rack Rate: ~$860/night
  • Average 2024 Points per night: 21.73/night
  • Average $/pt: $39.58/pt
• Poly LV Studio
  • Average 2024 Rack Rate: ~$1,100/night
  • Average 2024 Points per night: 25.78/night
  • Average $/pt: $42.67/pt
• Poly Bungalow
  • Average 2024 Rack Rate: ~$4,250/night
  • Average 2024 Points per night: 146.92/night
  • Average $/pt: $28.93/pt

(rack rates from https://www.mousesavers.com/2024-polynesian-villas-bungalows-room-rates-season-dates/)

If they rent out 100k points per year (around 2.5% of points, just above their 2% minimum ownership threshold), they'd make over $1mil more by renting exclusively Studios (either view) vs. exclusively Bungalows.

Renting Bungalows is a bad business decision for Disney. Anecdotally, I've found it hard to find them to book via cash on the WDW site.

Hi, sorry to jump in here but how do you calculate the price per point? Is the cost to own each point over the life of the contract? Because that shows points costing the same as cash. Trying to decide if I should buy DVC and if there's any advantage when looking to rent the larger villas at the monorail resorts. Thx

 

[crvetter]

Hi, sorry to jump in here but how do you calculate the price per point? Is the cost to own each point over the life of the contract? Because that shows points costing the same as cash. Trying to decide if I should buy DVC and if there's any advantage when looking to rent the larger villas at the monorail resorts. Thx

I believe they are just taking the rack rate and the equivalent points to book that room to show per point Disney makes more on the studios than the bungalows renting their own points they own or via breakage.

This really isn’t an analysis on what buying DVC saves vs renting cash rooms.

 

[Cfabar1]

I agree. I was trying to be sarcastic just to illustrate the ridiculousness of the situation.

That said, it is possible in other timeshare systems to buy enough weeks (resale of course) to live on the ocean in Hawaii year-round and make it affordable for someone affluent, without making it sound like a parody.

For example, a resale 2BR week at Marriott Ko Olina is about $13K for Ocean View and $9K for Mountain View (probably double to triple for fixed weeks 51 and 52). If you buy 52 of those weeks, you effectively own a 2BR oceanview condo for about $700,000, and those deeds are perpetual (what would a condo like that in HI cost to actually buy from a developer? Maybe $3-4 million?) You're still paying dues of $2800/week or about $145,000/year, but that's about 1/3 of the 2BR DVC bungalows, which also puts it a bit in perspective. If you buy 55,000 Poly resale points and live there year-round you'd still be paying $7-$8 million upfront and the $440,000 in annual dues, and it's guaranteed to end up worthless in 2066...

This is sobering, but I do have to say, you could draw similar assessments to just about every other time share and DVC generally....

They last forever, DVC doesn't....
The price per stay is much higher at DVC...

and yet, DVC ends up holding its value the most....

 

[ehh]

Hi, sorry to jump in here but how do you calculate the price per point? Is the cost to own each point over the life of the contract? Because that shows points costing the same as cash. Trying to decide if I should buy DVC and if there's any advantage when looking to rent the larger villas at the monorail resorts. Thx

The average $/pt I listed is what Disney's rental revenue per point would be if they were to rent out a room at full cash rates through disneyworld.com.

For example, a cash rate night might be $900/night through WDW and 22pts for that night through DVC, so for Disney to rent it out (which is what their cash bookings are at DVC resorts), they would use 22pts from their points inventory and add $900 of revenue, an exchange of roughly $41/pt (some of that is tax, which they don't get to keep).

My post highlights that it's inefficient for Disney to use their points to rent out Bungalows as they'd make more money renting out Studios for the same number of points (which they only have so many of).

As @crvetter mentioned, it's not really an analysis of what DVC saves vs. cash, though the same $/pt numbers will pop up in break-even analysis too.

 

[DanCali]

and yet, DVC ends up holding its value the most....

In my opinion, this is (has been) primarily due to the lack of substantial resale restrictions until recently. With DVC going the way or Marriott and Westin timeshares with resale restrictions I fear that, unfortunately, resale prices at the newer resorts will also follow similar trends over time.

 

[Cfabar1]

In my opinion, this is (has been) primarily due to the lack of substantial resale restrictions until recently. With DVC going the way or Marriott and Westin timeshares with resale restrictions I fear that, unfortunately, resale prices at the newer resorts will also follow similar trends over time.

especially if DVC continues to let any and everything through ROFR, I agree with you. I also think a "points-washing" scheme is inevitable for DVC.

 

[Sandisw]

especially if DVC continues to let any and everything through ROFR, I agree with you. I also think a "points-washing" scheme is inevitable for DVC.

I honestly will be surprised to see them do "point washing"....unless its based on buying the same size direct contract that you own resale...for example, own 150 resale points, buy 150 direct points and all the points are now eligible for trading.

But, even that, I think is a stretch because eventually, there will be enough new resorts and fewer resale points to worry about.

What I could see, down the line, is that they allow owners to trade restricted resale points at 7 months, for a one time per reservation fee, to be used at the other resorts....

For example, I could turn my restricted RIV points into a stay at SSR for a set fee...it would be based on availability of the points DVC/DVD had in stock to use at the time.

 

[DanCali]

I honestly will be surprised to see them do "point washing"....unless its based on buying the same size direct contract that you own resale...for example, own 150 resale points, buy 150 direct points and all the points are now eligible for trading.

But, even that, I think is a stretch because eventually, there will be enough new resorts and fewer resale points to worry about.

What I could see, down the line, is that they allow owners to trade restricted resale points at 7 months, for a one time per reservation fee, to be used at the other resorts....

For example, I could turn my restricted RIV points into a stay at SSR for a set fee...it would be based on availability of the points DVC/DVD had in stock to use at the time.

"Point washing" works and gets resale buyers who might never buy direct to buy direct... it got us to buy with Marriott/Vistana direct as fully informed buyers who bought several resale weeks prior to that. My salesperson actually recently emailed to thank me for referring another person to him two years ago who since then made 6(!) direct purchases as part of a "point washing" strategy.

At DVC, where new resorts are still coming online, a "point washing" strategy may also be attractive not just to RIV and VDH resale buyers, but also to members who buy SAP at the O14. Someone who buys resale at those 14 resorts doesn't really expect to ever go to RIV, VDH, Poly2, or other new resorts. But if all of a sudden they can buy 150 direct points and get their existing 150 OKW points to also be unrestricted for their remaining life, they might actually consider it.

DVC doesn't have to do this as long as sales are brisk. But buyers sour on the resale restrictions more over time, and sales slow down, this could be a reasonable way to attract buyers who might never buy direct otherwise.

 

[Sandisw]

"Point washing" works and gets resale buyers who might never buy direct to buy direct... it got us to buy with Marriott/Vistana direct as fully informed buyers who bought several resale weeks prior to that. My salesperson actually recently emailed to thank me for referring another person to him two years ago who since then made 6(!) direct purchases as part of a "point washing" strategy.

At DVC, where new resorts are still coming online, a "point washing" strategy may also be attractive not just to RIV and VDH resale buyers, but also to members who buy SAP at the O14. Someone who buys resale at those 14 resorts doesn't really expect to ever go to RIV, VDH, Poly2, or other new resorts. But if all of a sudden they can buy 150 direct points and get their existing 150 OKW points to also be unrestricted for their remaining life, they might actually consider it.

DVC doesn't have to do this as long as sales are brisk. But buyers sour on the resale restrictions more over time, and sales slow down, this could be a reasonable way to attract buyers who might never buy direct otherwise.

I actually think people will come to view resale restrictions as just part of the program and go with it. Many thought it would be a product killer, myself included, and it has not.

Not saying it doesn’t work but I just don’t see DVD needing to do it. They simply do what they are doing now, make the incentives strong enough make the difference between resale and direct small enough to pull the direct trigger. Which, just based on reports here, this has happened a lot for those who never thought they’d go direct.

All of those other systems don’t have the one thing that DVC does…onsite accommodations at WDW for trips to Disney.