Why not to buy into Poly 1 but maybe Poly 2 / Those Darn Bungalows !!!!

[Sandisw]

They have been selling a lot more VGF direct than RIV direct for a few months in a row now. Like you say, it does matter that resale prices at VGF are in the same ballpark as direct. But it also matters that they are less so at RIV. After they sell out VGF, Aulani will likely be the only direct option without resale restrictions and I don't think the other resorts, including Poly2, will necessarily replace all the current brisk VGF sales.

I saw in the other thread you made (rejected) offers of $100-$110 for RIV small contracts. But that may be the going price in 6, 12, or 18 months. What do you think will happen to RIV direct sales if resale prices at RIV went below $100? It certainly won't make a direct purchase more attractive... Some will never care, but will some of those considering Poly2 at $230+ think twice about buying there direct with the restrictions if RIV was below $100 resale? Will they buy direct or wait 3-4 years to maybe pick it up as restricted points on the resale market for less than $100. I agree that as long as things are selling strong, DVC doesn't need to do much. But time will tell...

When RIV was cheaper than VGF last fall, it outsold VGF by almost 2:1 for about 4 months.

Tells you that the main reason for choosing resort right now for direct is price because VGF could not compete against RIV when it cost more to buy it.

And, while I offered that low, it wasn’t because I didn’t think it was worth more than that.. I paid $152 for a 125 point contract in 2021…but was trying to capitalize on the cratering resale market.

Honestly, I would have been willing to go as high a $140 for those had I really wanted more points.

People thought RIV was going to go that low when it first opened and I was one of them. Fast forward to today and you are still seeing it go for $130s…. Plus, most resorts are down a bit in the last year so who knows if the current RIV prices are a result of the same thing impacting VGF, CCV and Poly and causing those priced to be much lower now.

Plus, once there are several restricted resorts, the resale market will settle and while I do agree they may not retain value like thte origiabl product did, they will have a market for them.

Even so, that is the whole point. You buy direct to have it all and if you don’t care about that, you pick up cheap resale along the way. That is why I said that the new buyer of DVC won’t see resale restrictions the same way old time DVC do because it will be the norm and not the exception.

 

[Sandisw]

I don’t think having 18 years left is the issue. People have bought BWV & BCV resale to have 11-month access (during F&W especially) for many years already.

Of course thst has been a goal of many. But, I do wonder now if more people who have owned a long time or just getting in are doing so to stay there more exclusively then they did when there was plenty of years left to use it.

When we bought BWV, we did buy to use during the fall but also to use elsewhere. If I was buying now, it’d be only to use there.

 

[tom1944]

I don’t enjoy studios
We usually do 2bd…
So to make it work for me I do
One week at either BLT or RR every other years. And then one week at SSR every year…

I then have left over points to rent, go on an adult trip, or give to my wife to supplement the silly low number of points she has ….

No you don’t want to ask what I pay for dues ….

Our plan is 7 or 8 days a year. We would do 1 bedrooms at BLT and Kidani.

Our 2 bedrooms would be at Boardwalk, Boulder Ridge/Copper Creek, Saratoga or Old Key West.

If we buy direct at either Riviera or Poly2 they would most likely be a 4 day stay with the other 4 days of that trip at the resorts listed above.

We would try this with about 330 points and vacation mid to late January or August.

All of that means considering buying or next contract resale at BWV, BRV/CCV or BLT or direct at RIV or POLY2.

We have time to decide and potential to change our mind.

 

[Robbie Cottam]

Our plan is 7 or 8 days a year. We would do 1 bedrooms at BLT and Kidani.

Our 2 bedrooms would be at Boardwalk, Boulder Ridge/Copper Creek, Saratoga or Old Key West.

If we buy direct at either Riviera or Poly2 they would most likely be a 4 day stay with the other 4 days of that trip at the resorts listed above.

We would try this with about 330 points and vacation mid to late January or August.

All of that means considering buying or next contract resale at BWV, BRV/CCV or BLT or direct at RIV or POLY2.

We have time to decide and potential to change our mind.

Two four night stats?
Or two night night stays….

I assume by 8 nights a year that you mean two four nights stays….

They other one gets price quick….

But with my new schedule I might need about 12 to 16 nights more a year real soon….

 

[tom1944]

Two four night stats?
Or two night night stays….

I assume by 8 nights a year that you mean two four nights stays….

They other one gets price quick….

But with my new schedule I might need about 12 to 16 nights more a year real soon….

We will take either a week trip or an 8 day trip. The 8 day trip will be a split stay with each portion being 4 days.

 

[Epcot Forever Forever]

heck I have to walk a reservation @ 11 months to get a Studio at CCV or a deluxe studio at GFV.

Yes, those are two of the hardest gets in the entire system. I’m not understanding your point.

 

[PinkPixel]

The average $/pt I listed is what Disney's rental revenue per point would be if they were to rent out a room at full cash rates through disneyworld.com.

For example, a cash rate night might be $900/night through WDW and 22pts for that night through DVC, so for Disney to rent it out (which is what their cash bookings are at DVC resorts), they would use 22pts from their points inventory and add $900 of revenue, an exchange of roughly $41/pt (some of that is tax, which they don't get to keep).

My post highlights that it's inefficient for Disney to use their points to rent out Bungalows as they'd make more money renting out Studios for the same number of points (which they only have so many of).

As @crvetter mentioned, it's not really an analysis of what DVC saves vs. cash, though the same $/pt numbers will pop up in break-even analysis too.

Interesting thank you

 

[Frugal Fairy Tales]

Really ! I've been trying to get a res at the Poly for a while now at the 7 month mark with no luck. Maybe a day or 2 available. I have a Reservation at my home resort VGF and only could get a waiting list . I've been following this for 6 months and nothing is available there for a full week at the 7 month mark except Bungalows. Same is true at BWV, CCV , BCV, RIV , BRV and spotty availability at BLT( Which I hate). Even spotty availability for some Studios at the 7 month mark at OKW and Jambo house. Of cousre SSV are available and Kidani usually always.

I think there is less availability at Poly at 7 months than there used to be, based on my observations on the DVC reservation system. I own at Poly and would not chance not booking ahead of the 7-month mark, especially in the Fall. I think the Poly home resort advantage is now more necessary than in the past. However, I do think there is a decent chance of waitlists coming through on Poly studios because there are many of them.

 

[Genie+]

The average $/pt I listed is what Disney's rental revenue per point would be if they were to rent out a room at full cash rates through disneyworld.com.

For example, a cash rate night might be $900/night through WDW and 22pts for that night through DVC, so for Disney to rent it out (which is what their cash bookings are at DVC resorts), they would use 22pts from their points inventory and add $900 of revenue, an exchange of roughly $41/pt (some of that is tax, which they don't get to keep).

My post highlights that it's inefficient for Disney to use their points to rent out Bungalows as they'd make more money renting out Studios for the same number of points (which they only have so many of).

As @crvetter mentioned, it's not really an analysis of what DVC saves vs. cash, though the same $/pt numbers will pop up in break-even analysis too.

We booked a Poly LV stay in Season 3 (a below average point cost season) for 22pts/nt.

Rack rate with taxes those nights are a few dollars short of $1400 a night. It’s bonkers. I guess it makes sense. They can flash a dining offer or 35% discount to fill the villa and still make a good deal on their 22pts.

 

[crvetter]

I think there is less availability at Poly at 7 months than there used to be, based on my observations on the DVC reservation system. I own at Poly and would not chance not booking ahead of the 7-month mark, especially in the Fall. I think the Poly home resort advantage is now more necessary than in the past. However, I do think there is a decent chance of waitlists coming through on Poly studios because there are many of them.

Here is to give an idea today what the availability of the studios look like. I would say in my experience it has usually been about 40-50% of the unit days were open (outside of Fall Frenzy). This is a hard comparison because it is a snapshot in time and February is pretty popular now. But even then that window is about to open with 37% of all Poly standard studios open (not necessarily every day) and 40% of the lake view studios open (again this isn't days)

This is similar to what I did with the bungalows. So it shows how many unit days are available not how many nights have vacancies. So it would be possible for an entire day to be sold out but the next day 50% of the units available so I would call that 25% of the unit days open.

Standard View

Month	% of Points Unbooked
Jun-23​	0.00%​
Jul-23​	0.15%​
Aug-23​	0.52%​
Sep-23​	0.00%​
Oct-23​	0.01%​
Nov-23​	0.01%​
Dec-23​	1.05%​
Jan-24​	3.46%​
Feb-24​	37.30%​
Mar-24​	56.74%​
Apr-24​	63.67%​
May-24​	57.66%​

Lake View

Month	% of Points Unbooked
Jun-23​	0.00%​
Jul-23​	0.13%​
Aug-23​	0.52%​
Sep-23​	0.00%​
Oct-23​	0.00%​
Nov-23​	0.00%​
Dec-23​	0.65%​
Jan-24​	5.57%​
Feb-24​	40.59%​
Mar-24​	63.81%​
Apr-24​	63.12%​
May-24​	64.35%​

This says right now over the 11 month window about 23% of the Poly studios are open (each Standard and Lake have 23%). It does show as the 7 month window opens they go quick (for booking this time of year) it doesn't show what booking May-August @ 7 months might look like for Poly.

 

[DanCali]

The Board sponsor has a site you can join that that let's you know how many rooms of each type are available on a given night.

Seems highly useful if it's accurate. How do you access this tool?

 

[Rochester Disney Fan]

Seems highly useful if it's accurate. How do you access this tool?

Once you join their site it's part of their resort availability tool.

 

[Yankee626]

Here is to give an idea today what the availability of the studios look like. I would say in my experience it has usually been about 40-50% of the unit days were open (outside of Fall Frenzy). This is a hard comparison because it is a snapshot in time and February is pretty popular now. But even then that window is about to open with 37% of all Poly standard studios open (not necessarily every day) and 40% of the lake view studios open (again this isn't days)

This is similar to what I did with the bungalows. So it shows how many unit days are available not how many nights have vacancies. So it would be possible for an entire day to be sold out but the next day 50% of the units available so I would call that 25% of the unit days open.

Standard View

Month	% of Points Unbooked
Jun-23​	0.00%​
Jul-23​	0.15%​
Aug-23​	0.52%​
Sep-23​	0.00%​
Oct-23​	0.01%​
Nov-23​	0.01%​
Dec-23​	1.05%​
Jan-24​	3.46%​
Feb-24​	37.30%​
Mar-24​	56.74%​
Apr-24​	63.67%​
May-24​	57.66%​

Lake View

Month	% of Points Unbooked
Jun-23​	0.00%​
Jul-23​	0.13%​
Aug-23​	0.52%​
Sep-23​	0.00%​
Oct-23​	0.00%​
Nov-23​	0.00%​
Dec-23​	0.65%​
Jan-24​	5.57%​
Feb-24​	40.59%​
Mar-24​	63.81%​
Apr-24​	63.12%​
May-24​	64.35%​

This says right now over the 11 month window about 23% of the Poly studios are open (each Standard and Lake have 23%). It does show as the 7 month window opens they go quick (for booking this time of year) it doesn't show what booking May-August @ 7 months might look like for Poly.

Where are you getting this information? I look on the site and very little is available at the 7 month mark and no free weeks.

 

[crvetter]

Where are you getting this information? I look on the site and very little is available at the 7 month mark and no free weeks.

It’s from the site. You can inspect the page and actually look at the raw data that backs the availability charts presented. There it shows you the number of rooms each individual day.

I have different data that shows it sliced differently. However, it would violate the rules here on sharing availability most likely. So I think the above does show that there is quite a bit available in February which is about to open up for 7 months. I think anything well into 7 months would be expected to be filled up.

 

[Yankee626]

Is there a reason why its a policy not to post current availability ? Anyway its always the same that are available. The resort of last resorts , OKW and Kidani. Since VGF are not sold out yet they will have some Theme Park and lagoon View rooms. Which are very nice but very pointsy . The one thing they all have in common is that they are not linked to any Theme Park by anything but Bus trans.

 

[Sandisw]

Is there a reason why its a policy not to post current availability ? Anyway its always the same that are available. The resort of last resorts , OKW and Kidani. Since VGF are not sold out yet they will have some Theme Park and lagoon View rooms. Which are very nice but very pointsy . The one thing they all have in common is that they are not linked to any Theme Park by anything but Bus trans.

We do not allow real time availability for two main reasons.

First, we do not allow reservations wanted posts for renting. It would be very easy to get around this rule by having some post like they are buying and wanting info ahead of time and actually just trying to know what is there as a way around the rule.

Second, until one can book, what we see does not matter because it changes frequently.

So, we allow general info and trends only. Giving an idea of how easy or hard it might be but beyond that, no.

 

[lilsonicfan]

Where are you getting this information? I look on the site and very little is available at the 7 month mark and no free weeks.

I think I mentioned this earlier, but I've seen a lot of availability when I've been up at 8am (5am my time) for booking, even at the 7 month mark, and that's only in the <1 month I've had my points. It might be that you don't think it's right/fair/just that one should have to look right at 8am, but again, isn't that the whole issue with 7 month booking? Isn't that why everyone says to buy where you want to stay? IDK. I'm so tired of reading "the resort of last resort", it's so overused.

 

[Genie+]

I'm so tired of reading "the resort of last resort", it's so overused.

It may be overused but also reality most of the time. The last couple years we’ve needed to book under 7 months several times with different people joining us. They all had the same reasoning when faced with choosing from the last 3 resorts. OKW is preferred especially when SSR is 30% more points, and when that choice is gone they pick AKV because they feel the overall resort and safari are a better value at the same point level as SSR.

This is definitely not to say SSR has no value. Together with my niece we decided it was a great option for her to join our family trip. OK it was the only thing available lol, but she’s very excited since the rooms are nice, she and her husband will get deluxe EEH with us, and as a couple they plan a couple visits to Disney Springs and love the idea of taking the boat.

 

[tom1944]

I purchased at SSR resale and my plan is to see what I can get at BLT at 7 months if it is just my family and to use SSR for trips where I will have my siblings join us. I can get more space at SSR for less points.

 

[Genie+]

I purchased at SSR resale and my plan is to see what I can get at BLT at 7 months if it is just my family and to use SSR for trips where I will have my siblings join us. I can get more space at SSR for less points.

Lake View at BLT is the most reliable at 7 months. It’s a great option!