Why I Should Not Join??

[teri]

Just to clarify... My comments were not directed at any single individual's post. For comments to an individual, I use PMs and eMail. I was expressing my opinion about an idea, which of course is allowed in this forum.

The webmasters of this site decided a long time ago that these boards would not be the rallying point behind movements or boycotts or campaigns to challenge any aspect of Disney policy. Your individual experiences and concerns about policy or service changes really should be directed to DVC, once you have identified a problem.

A long time ago I learned something very important about organizational change -- all the jumble of facts and high emotional tone will just bounce off the surface of administrators and bureaucrats, they are inured to such comments. You really do have to demonstrate how your individual experience has been impacted by their policy and how it affects their operation. That way, instead of becoming a reactive, PR issue it becomes a proactive operational issue which they must address.

 

[DVCDAVE]

Quote ; (I don't see the lack of pool-hopping at AKL as a reduction, since there WAS no AKL until this April.)

Using the same logic I could only guess that if Disney decided not to allow you to exchange in to VWL, BCV or VEP you would be complacent and accept that too. After all, the legal documents does allow them to NOT add new resorts, including DVCs to the program.

I however feel that even if it is in Disney's legal right to restrict, or take away perks and privlages, I don't have to sit down and be a quiet compalcent little mouse. I too agree about some of the speculation that goes on here, however on this matter we already have heard from a number of DVCer's experiences, AND some confirmation from DOC that a new schedule is coming this week. Among the recent speculation that is going on is that DVC is somehow losing $ on theses DC exchanges, and seeing the old schedule is 10 years old, they MUST have been losing for 10 years and did nothing about it. WHERE IS THE PROOF !

What we DO know about $ is that we will be getting a totally new Member Guidebook, and we apparently will be getting them every year. Apparently, DOC confirmed that directly with MS. How ironic that they are so concerned about $ in one area, yet are free to go hog wild in another area which no one has compalined about. At 50,000+ members, and taking a wild guess that the new book runs $20 with shipping and printing, thats $1MM+ per year !

 

[pluvc1993]

Just to clarify... My comments were not directed at any single individual's post

I tend to disagree with this since posted on your reply

Venting *at* other posters or at the moderators is pointless and unpleasant. Venting in chat is like throwing your ideas into the wind...

Which was directly taken from my personal post

( I think some people need some serious venting.) lol

Also

The webmasters of this site decided a long time ago that these boards would not be the rallying point behind movements or boycotts or campaigns to challenge any aspect of Disney policy.

What does this mean? Again this comment is implying that I specifically mentioned some sort of movement. Your quote states;

If you are upset with DVC, you should be writing to DVC. yes they read this, but they are not responsible for doing anything about what they read here. They ARE responsible for doing something about letters directed to them.

Which does in FACT imply a movement. I was however expressing an idea that I thought would be helpful. Remember we are all entitled to our opinions without being personally ATTACKED. In no way form or fashion did I break any rules pertained to this board as per their posting guidelines.

 

[raidermatt]

I however feel that even if it is in Disney's legal right to restrict, or take away perks and privlages, I don't have to sit down and be a quiet compalcent little mouse.

The problem with this statement is that the implication is if someone still recommends somebody purchase, they are a "quiet complacent little mouse". (Remember, the context of the original post was why should I not purchase, not what's wrong with DVC).

If someone does not consider pool hopping at AKL to be a benefit they will use, it means nothing to them. Same with the Disney Collection. Its fine to point out the changes in these programs, but it should be qualified with a statment that if you won't be needing these programs, it doesn't matter. Purchasing based on non-guaranteed programs is risky anyway.

Really, the advice to purchase or not purchase should not have changed much in the last year. Certain things are guaranteed in our legal documents, and if that is not enough to justify a purchase, the buyer will be taking a risk.

If we are not happy with DVC programs, but have chosen not to sell because of them, we should be giving those opinions to DVC, and starting another thread to specifically discuss those concerns.

 

[DVCDAVE]

Quote; The problem with this statement is that the implication is if someone still recommends somebody purchase, they are a "quiet complacent little mouse".

Excuse me, but I did not imply anything to anyone other than myself. Further, even if you want to take it out of context the last I knew the words 'quiet, and complacent' are not insults, they are adjectives meaning;

From Websters NewWorld Dictionary, 2nd College Edition:

com-pla-cent; adj. to be very pleasing, to please 1) satisfied, self satisfied 2) affable

qui-et; adj. to keep quiet 1)still, calm motionless 2) not making noise; hushed, not speaking, silent 3) not agitated, as in motion

 

[JonHM]

Hi Dave-

I don't think that anybody has any problem with you being upset, or with you complaining about what upsets you. What is upsetting to me, however, is the same thing that I think concerned Synonymous: that when negative posts are made WITHOUT being backed up by explanation or facts, they could turn off prospective DVC members who do not understand the context of the comments.

Just as an example, this thread was started with someone saying they were about to buy in, tell them why they shouldn't. As someone else said, they weren't asking, 'What is wrong with DVC?', but should THEY buy in to DVC. The first few posts were very informative and helpful, giving guidelines as to who might be good candidates for DVC, and who might not. But while you have made some very valid arguments later on in this thread, here was your first posting on this thread:

If you don't like being lied to, don't join. Disney relies on it's pristine reputation to suck you in to believing they won't, or can't do no wrong, then they steal benefits and perks away from you. I bought a year ago, now I feel like the biggest sucker in town.

That's it. No further explanation of what you mean by 'stealing' or 'lying' - just that. Well, Dave, what upset some of us is that that kind of a post - negative without explanation or anything to back it up - could sour a prospective DVC member who WOULD be a good candidate for DVC, before they get a chance to fully research it. Now, NONE of us want people to buy in without making sure that it is right for them; we'd certainly rather have people decide in advance that it's not right for them and not buy, like sgtpet, rather than buy in too quickly and then become unhappy members. But posts like the one quoted above could cause people for whom DVC would be perfect to just get afraid and dismiss it.

Now I am NOT telling you not to post criticism, either of Disney in general, or of DVC itself. But I know that I would really, really appreciate it if when you're going to post something negative, you fully explain yourself and lay out what you're upset about and why. General posts accusing Disney of 'lying' and 'stealing', without further explanation are not productive in any way.

To repeat myself, *later* in the thread you did lay out your arguments in very good detail, but for someone just looking into DVC for the first time, that may have been too little, too late. They may have already been scared off.

By the way, Dave, I *certainly* hope that you are voicing your complaints and concerns directly to member relations. They should definitely be aware when one of their members is as upset as you are with them. Sorry about the long post. Thanks for listening.

 

[DVCDAVE]

JONHM,

Maybe you have a point about my first post. So, I just deleted it. I have been trying to call MS almost a week now, but can't get through in a reasonable amount of time. This AM I was on hold for 35 minutes. I have sent two emails, in the last 4 days, no reply yet. It could well be that they are hearing a lot of 'vents' from other members not posting on this board. The day prior to this news breaking I called MS to add on a day to our March stay, it was a Monday morning, and was on hold less than 5 minutes.

Sorry if I scared someone off, I doubt I did, as the decision making process is to deep to rely on just one persons opinion.

 

[JonHM]

Thanks. Definitely hang in there and keep trying to get ahold of them. I wrote yesterday to them about something else and have still not heard back yet. Hopefully that does mean that everyone that is unhappy is letting them know. That is definitely our best way to protect ourselves. Take Care.

 

[Synonymous]

Dave, I considered complaints about the new DC point schedule to be speculation because we have only very limited, anecdotal evidence, about what is going to happen. According to Doc (and I don't know where he got this info, either) some choices for DC will go down in points. We really don't know much of anything at this point. Soon (hopefully) we will, and then it will be possible to have an informed discussion of the subject.

 

[DVCDAVE]

I've stated my case as best as I can for the time being, concerning DC. I have been very sincere in my expectations on that facet of the DVC program. This family has used it, and wants it to continue in an affordable manner. We are not at all able to vacation during the slow times as some members may be. Given that we bought 275 points each at BWV and VWL in order to enjoy a generous amount of days during 'magic season'. Our plan has been to bank and alternate years among the two resorts.

Again, my family has always viewed DC as an affordable safety net. In terms of flexibility, while you (or some members) feel that they ONLY wish to stay in DVC resorts, that is fine. But be honest with yourselves in the sense that any tightening of points in DC will add preasure to the DVC resorts, making the 11 month window even more important. Given that scenario, the 7 month booking window at non-home resorts will become more of a gamble. Hence, 'flexibility' becomes more compromised through out the DVC program. Yes, Yes, I understand that a member can still travel when he or she wants, but be honest with yourself and understand that 'flexibility' is a broad defintition covering a spectrum of options for all members, not just one narrowly defined measurement of its use.

All these perks and privlages benefit some member(s) of our DVC family. My family has little or no interest in pool hopping, and only a modest interest in DCL. However, I will fight to protect all these options, as all members should. Sooner or later Disney will come a hunting for your favorite perk if we just sit quietly by letting them take'm one by one. Disney isn't stupid, they realize too , that word of mouth is a powerful weapon to be used against them.

I don't accept the 'excuse' being tossed around about exchanges in to DC are costing DVC too much money. Disney hasn't even hinted at that in the past, and has a long standing schedule of points that it has used for over 10 years. IF, that schedule was deemed unprofitable it would have been discarded by the Disney bean counters long ago. I am not nieve enough to give this excuse serious consideration. In fact, as a shareholder too, I respect Disney's accountants too much to believe they would let something so unprofitable go for so long unchecked.

If you need to be convinced as to what fears Disney has, you may want to pick up the recently published book "Married to the Mouse". There is a chapter at the end of the book that deals with Disney's town of Celebration. Things are so bad their amongst the homeowners, and Disney is so paranoid, that they have been buying back some of the houses from unhappy homeowners, in exchange for the homeowners silence about their unpleasant experience.

 

[raidermatt]

Dave- Thanks for the definitions. That was very helpful.

I stand by my statement that "quiet complacent little mouse" had negative connotations.

HOWEVER, if you say you did not mean to imply that those who choose to do nothing are quiet complacent little mice, I will take you on your word. My apologies.

I don't think anyone disagrees that the recent changes are a negative. In fact, I pretty much agree completely with your last post. EXCEPT that it is not automatically a reason for someone not to join. If they feel like I do, that DVC is still worth it even without the perks, then why shouldn't they join? Its good to give them the facts, and to express your opinion about the possible implicatons of those facts. Its just that some of your statements went too far, particularly in the post you deleted. (I know, since its deleted, its not really fair to bring it up, but it was still there when I originally commented to you)

Hope you understand where I'm coming from.

 

[JonHM]

Excellent post. By the way, isn't Celebration on some of the WDW land? How many years do you think it'll be before they bulldoze it to put in another park or resort?

Matt : Very well said.

 

[DVCDAVE]

Quote; I stand by my statement that "quiet complacent little mouse" had negative connotations.

RAIDERMATT, I accept the apology, but you do not have to accept my explanation. Instead, take me for my written word in my prior post; "I don't have to be a quiet complacent little mouse" If there is a negative slant, well......I don't see it directed at any party other than me. At worst it is a pun; the lowest form of humor (mouse-mickey mouse), for that I am guilty as charged

Enough said on the above matter.

Further, I do understand where you are coming from, along with others of your view point. That is why I deleted the post that caused the problem. Hopefully, you too can see my arguement on how the DC changes will affect the entire DVC program. If you do, then I made my case and point and I'll leave it at that.

 

[DVCDAVE]

JONHM; I don't want to go on in detail about Clebration here as it is off the topic of this thread, and doesn't pertain to DVC, and this is a DVC Board.

Celabration is on DIsney's land and is in Osceola County. As you may know virtually all of the parks and resorts are in Orange county. Disney origianlly put cattle on the land so that it was taxed as farm land. Osceola County preasured Disney for years to develope the land as they felt that they were stuck with the infrastructue bills for Disney, yet collected liitle revenue. Finally in 1989 Osceola County revoked the agraculture status of the land, forcing Disney to pay up. Further, many FLA politicians were scrutinizing the promise that Disney made in 1967 in order to obtain the soverinty of Reedy Creek Improvement District from the FLA Legislature (read EPCOT, a Future Community in which people live, work, and play), which never realy materialized.

In any case, I recomend the book, it reads in about 4 1/2 hours, and gives great insight on how Disney obtained the land, and its relationships with the local counties.

 

[mickeyinjune]

we thought about purchasing but just couln't part with the money.

based on last year when we went through the presentation, I figured for us(2 adults and 2 pre teens one boy one girl) to be happy we would want 306 points to stay at BWV in a 2 bdr for a week.( the kids would not sleep together on the pull out couch in the 1 bdrm) It would of costed $67 a point/$20,502. divide this by how many years were left 42=$488approx. plus annual dues of $1205 divided by 7 days it would cost us $241.85 a night. This just seemed to high.

This year we stayed at the ASMU for $49 a night got two rooms.(granted there was no refrige. but we eat usually eat breakfast in the room snack during the day and dinner out)

 

[JonHM]

If you are perfectly happy with the AS resorts, then DVC may not be for you. Your analysis is admirable and thorough, but there are a few quick points I'd like to make:

A) For DVC, since it lasts another 40 years, you're thinking a little bit too much in the here and now. Granted, $242/night is quite a lot right now (especially when you can get AS so cheap), but it's locked in and relatively inflation proof. I may be wrong, but my guess is that $242 for these kind of accomodations will be pretty darned good in 10 years, and *unbelievable* in 20 years. I think you have to analyze your desire/need for it for the entire life of DVC, not just what it would cost you right now. I look at it in terms of buying a car: the cost is in that ballpark, and after 10 years, many cars are long since retired. But with the investment of DVC, in 10 years I will still have 31 years left of fantastic vacations merely for the cost of annual dues.

B) Your analysis for how many points you need to be happy may be a little high. Friday nights and Saturday nights are astronomically higher in points than Sunday through Thursday nights, so you can always show up on a Friday, pay your low rate at All Stars for Friday and Saturday, then transfer to DVC accomodations for Sunday through Thursday nights, and you would have spent a LOT less points that way. Also, if when your kids are older, you have more flexibility to take some trips at times of year when nights cost fewer points/night, your future trips could go a LOT further on your points.

I'm not disputing your decision. If you are perfectly happy staying in AS, then DVC probably isn't right for you right now. Just wanted to point those few things out. Thanks! Take care.

 

[Lhargus]

____________________________________________________But be honest with yourselves in the sense that any tightening of points in DC will add preasure to the DVC resorts, making the 11 month window even more important. Given that scenario, the 7 month booking window at non-home resorts will become more of a gamble. Hence, 'flexibility' becomes more compromised through out the DVC program.
____________________________________________________

In reference to the above quote, I was of the understanding that when trading out to a DC hotel the points were no longer part of member inventory but become developer inventory. If that is the case there should be no additional pressure on availability at DVC resorts for members whether you use your points at DVC or DC.

Maybe I'm confused?

 

[DVCDAVE]

LHARGUS, You are correct. Once points are traded for a DC property, they cannot be used for DVC, and can only be used for a DC resort. You may be confused though, or I may not have made my point clear.

If Disney jacks up the points required for DC exchanges, then fewer people will opt for a DC exchanges. If fewer people opt becuause of the expense in points (simple economics), then those members will stay inside DVC adding demand preasures. Hence our 11 month booking windows even more important to us.

My point about the 7 month booking window being a gamble may be wrong. I just recently learned of a strategy this morning in which I was unaware of. In another thread posted on this board, PAMOKW posted that some members book at 11 months in their home resort, then at the 7 month window SWITCH and exchange in to another DVC resort. Again, I was unaware of this strategy, and complemented the poster on bringing it to my attention.

 

[Synonymous]

I don't see how people staying at DVC rather than DC decreases room availability. If we use our points for an option other than DC, it frees up the DVC management to sell cash ressies for that number of points, doesn't it? It doesn't mean that the room sits idle for that period of time. Occupancy (assuming perfect market efficiency) remains identical.

 

[tedhowe]

Dave,

I thought I understood what you were getting at with the impact on room availability, but I don' t quite get it.

Can you illustrate your ideas on room availability with some hypothetical numbers?

If it costs 50 points a night for a given DC room today, and a member chooses to make that exchange, then DVC has 50 points of room availability to sell for cash through CRO (or whatever).

If the same room is now 150 points, and the member chooses to make the exchange, then DVC has 150 points of room availability to sell for cash.

If the member does not want to make the exchange, then they will use them within the DVC resorts, using the same 150 points.

Where is the difference.

I'm not trying to be difficult, because this point that you raise is one of the first true concerns that *I* have about the DC price increase (my wife and I have no iterest in staying at the DC choices in Orlando and our schedules usually let us take full advantage of the DVC resorts without needing the additional "safety net" of the DC).

I will say this, though: I don't think any changes to the DC program will have any SIGNIFICANT impact on the availability of DVC rooms.

We don't have real numbers, but I'll try to make some guesses about that sound reasonable to me:

What percentage of DVC points are used for DC exchanges annually? My guess is that it is less than 5%

What percentage of people who currently use DC will choose to stop if prices go up an average of 200%? I'll use the 80/20 rule and say that 80% of those people will stop using DC.

What is the impact of this on the percentage of points used in DC?

80% of the 5% would stop, but the other 1% would go up to 3%

so that would be 2% more points being used by members in DVC resorts than are used today.

I still don't know that this is any different than DVC selling the room nights for cash, but while it is an increase, I don't think that it is going to have a significant impact on availability.

Ted