Why are Disney's Posted waits for Stand-by a lot longer than actual SB waits?

[Suvadoo]

I’m looking at current wait times ( at 9:26 am) for the Magic Kingdom and according to Disney, Seven Dwarfs Mine Train has a posted wait of 90 mins, but the actual stand by wait ( posted by guests) is 22 minutes. The Anna and Elsa Meet and Greet is posted at 110 minutes and the actual wait is 31 minutes.
The source is: http://disneywaittimes.com

Why are the posted wait times so much higher than the actual wait times. Could it be Disney’s attempt to convince guests to use FP+ to avoid log waits? I’d be really interested to hear from people in the parks, are their SB wait times a lot less than the waits posted by Disney?

 

[Missyrose]

I’m looking at current wait times ( at 9:26 am) for the Magic Kingdom and according to Disney, Seven Dwarfs Mine Train has a posted wait of 90 mins, but the actual stand by wait ( posted by guests) is 22 minutes. The Anna and Elsa Meet and Greet is posted at 110 minutes and the actual wait is 31 minutes.
The source is: http://disneywaittimes.com

Why are the posted wait times so much higher than the actual wait times. Could it be Disney’s attempt to convince guests to use FP+ to avoid log waits? I’d be really interested to hear from people in the parks, are their SB wait times a lot less than the waits posted by Disney?

Disney uses posted wait times as crowd control.

 

[Suvadoo]

Disney uses posted wait times as crowd control.

Is this something new or am I just naive?
I can understand artificially increasing the posted wait times at closing time, but why are they doing in first thing in the morning?

 

[nanceliz]

We have almost always waited less time than posted. I figured it was Disney just being conservative. Better to wait less than have people complain it took longer than they posted.

 

[cakebaker]

We have almost always waited less time than posted. I figured it was Disney just being conservative. Better to wait less than have people complain it took longer than they posted.

Same here- it's been going on long before fp+ started. Your reasoning is just as sound as anything else I've heard. Who knows for sure, but since we know it, we don't pay a lot of attention to the posted times.

 

[mjhannaf]

FYI, there is an Android app with the same data now. You can download it here:
https://play.google.com/store/apps/details?id=com.disneywaittimes

 

[Missyrose]

Is this something new or am I just naive?
I can understand artificially increasing the posted wait times at closing time, but why are they doing in first thing in the morning?

Nothing new, Disney has been doing it for a long time.

 

[Mikie]

We have almost always waited less time than posted. I figured it was Disney just being conservative. Better to wait less than have people complain it took longer than they posted.

This is what I always assumed too. It's been the case as long as I've been going. Usually, when I bother to notice, it's a difference of 5-15 minutes. Once in a while I do actually see the opposite. It seems I've gotten in line right before they adjust the posted wait time based on those red card lanyards and my wait is a little longer than what was posted whn I walked in.

I have also seen greater discrepancies like the OP posted when I look at wait time apps, but I haven't actually experienced it myself.

 

[Babe the Blue Ox]

This is an item that seems to be getting more and more prevalent over the years. During the last 1-2 hours of park operation, posted wait times can sometimes be 4x the actual wait.

Are there any good theories on why this occurs? My best guess is that Disney is trying to steer folks away from the attractions and into the gift shops before leaving.

The chart below shows the posted and actual wait times that I observed for various attractions during the evening hours. The info was gathered during a recent summer week with expected crowd levels of 8-9 each day. Sorry about the ugly formatting.

Attraction Posted Actual
AK
Everest 20 0-5
Dinosaur 30 10
Kali 40 25
*longer lines encountered here as many visitors like to wait until the end of the day to get wet
Safari 25 0
*actually had to wait 5+ minutes for enough guests to arrive to fill the truck

DHS
Tower 20-30 0-5
RnR 45-60 15-20
Midway Mania 75 15

Epcot
Test Track 60 25
Maelstrom 20 5

MK
Space Mtn 55 35
*one of the few attractions that maintains a line throughout the evening
Splash Mtn 20 0
*takes longer to get off the boat than on
Big Thunder 20 0-5
Haunted Mansion 20 10
7 Dwarfs 80 10-20
A&E 90 10
*time estimate from fellow traveller
Buzz 20 0
Peter Pan 40 5

 

[Suvadoo]

This is an item that seems to be getting more and more prevalent over the years. During the last 1-2 hours of park operation, posted wait times can sometimes be 4x the actual wait.

Are there any good theories on why this occurs? My best guess is that Disney is trying to steer folks away from the attractions and into the gift shops before leaving.

The chart below shows the posted and actual wait times that I observed for various attractions during the evening hours. The info was gathered during a recent summer week with expected crowd levels of 8-9 each day. Sorry about the ugly formatting.

Attraction Posted Actual
AK
Everest 20 0-5
Dinosaur 30 10
Kali 40 25
*longer lines encountered here as many visitors like to wait until the end of the day to get wet
Safari 25 0
*actually had to wait 5+ minutes for enough guests to arrive to fill the truck

DHS
Tower 20-30 0-5
RnR 45-60 15-20
Midway Mania 75 15

Epcot
Test Track 60 25
Maelstrom 20 5

MK
Space Mtn 55 35
*one of the few attractions that maintains a line throughout the evening
Splash Mtn 20 0
*takes longer to get off the boat than on
Big Thunder 20 0-5
Haunted Mansion 20 10
7 Dwarfs 80 10-20
A&E 90 10
*time estimate from fellow traveller
Buzz 20 0
Peter Pan 40 5

There's a big diference. Between reality and Disney's fiction. So is there an app that posts accurate wait times and not the fiction Disney posts?

 

[BuenaVistaBound]

So is there an app that posts accurate wait times and not the fiction Disney posts?

Lines from Touring Plans shows official and 'reported' wait times. I try to be a good egg and report actual times while I'm there.

Incidentally, ignore the wait times at your own risk. I once reacted to a TSMM wait time of 100 minutes with skepticism, but sure enough, it was an hour-and-a-half later by the time we climbed aboard. I'll be joyfully walking in with a 10:30 a.m. FP+ on Friday morning...

 

[LBIJim]

Is this something new or am I just naive?
I can understand artificially increasing the posted wait times at closing time, but why are they doing in first thing in the morning?

It's not new. Disney has been doing this for a long time, long before even legacy FP.

Why do they do it first thing in the morning? To encourage people to ride Figment, Hall of Presidents, and other less popular attractions rather than Soarin' and Space Mountain. Like the PP said, crowd control and distribution reasons.

 

[hopemax]

I think the return times take into account FP+ reservations. But first thing in the morning and late at night have fewer people who actually make there return time. So standby moves faster in the morning because too many FP+ people overslept, breakfast took to long, etc. Standby moves faster at night, because people got too tired out and left early, etc.

 

[Bluegrrl]

As others have said, this has been going on forever. It's so guests can say, "hey, that line was supposed to be one hour, but we got on in 20 minutes! How great was that?)

And in the morning, most rides are listed as 5-10 minute wait - mainly an over estimation on Disney's part.

 

[TillyMarigold]

I was a front-line attractions CM and was trained (before FP) to always add at least 10-15 minutes to the actual wait time (which we judged by the length of the queue). I was told that the reason was what Bluegrrl said--that people will be thrilled if they're told 30 minutes and it takes 20, but if you tell them 20 and it takes 21, they'll be upset.

 

[allie_to_you]

Is there a better app for wait times that is more reliable?

 

[Heckah]

disneywaittimes.com was pretty accurate during my stay.

It's a combination of perceived win (waiting in line for 25 minutes is awesome when the posted time is 40, waiting in line for 25 minutes sucks when the posted time is 20), and redistribution. If the posted wait time for A&E is 20 minutes, the wait time will go up to 60 really quickly as everyone flocks to get in on a 20 minute wait.

Posted wait time last Tuesday for SDMT was 60, disneywaittimes.com had it at 25, it was 25 on the nose. Great resource.

 

[johde]

The other thing to remember in all of this is Disney is attempting to give an indication of what the wait time will be while the reported wait times are what they just where. Early in the morning TSMM may show a 60 minute wait because they expect the wait to hit 50+ minutes by 9:15 in the morning. So, instead of having the wait time be constantly behind the curve they post it at 60 minutes until there is evidence it's not going to hit that level then back it off.

 

[Suvadoo]

I was a front-line attractions CM and was trained (before FP) to always add at least 10-15 minutes to the actual wait time (which we judged by the length of the queue). I was told that the reason was what Bluegrrl said--that people will be thrilled if they're told 30 minutes and it takes 20, but if you tell them 20 and it takes 21, they'll be upset.

I can undersatnd adding 10- 15 minutes, but A&E was listed as a 110 minute was and the actual was 31 minutes. So they added 1 hour and 20 miinutes to that line this morning. I just think Disney is starting to over- inflate the SB line estimates to discourage guests. If they can't force guests to use FP+, maybe pretending that SB is over 1 hour in length will increase guest compliance.

 

[mjhannaf]

There's a big diference. Between reality and Disney's fiction. So is there an app that posts accurate wait times and not the fiction Disney posts?

I post the actual wait times here:
https://play.google.com/store/apps/details?id=com.disneywaittimes