Why ‘Star Wars: Episode VII’ Is a Huge Risk for Disney

[akadada]

I also think Abrams is spread too thin; he's got his name on a bajillion different properties. So many tv shows and movies that I honestly wonder how many of them he actually works on, and how many he just spends 5 minutes signing off on.

Good point, although I think Abrams reputation is destroyed if he blows this. I'm assuming he knows this. Maybe I'm naive.

 

[akadada]

my two cents...

I enjoyed and agreed with everything you wrote in that post...it was totally worth more than two cents.

 

[Twin Dad]

my two cents...

i dont' know anything about the writer...but i have to say his points seem completely valid.

played out in the movies in the era of franchises and sequels over and over again...

Very well written and I agree.

You forgot the Percy Jackson movies. The books are better, in my opinion, than Harry Potter and the movies are still born because the first director decided to get cute.

amen, my druid brother...

I should have included that me and my fellow geeks will be doing a midnight show.

Please read the Zahn books; it is wonderful time spent. Heir to the Empire.

I second this. One thing I tell people who start with Heir to the Empire is that it was written before Episode I so the back story is off.

Good point, although I think Abrams reputation is destroyed if he blows this. I'm assuming he knows this. Maybe I'm naive.

I'm sure he knows.

Also Iger was warned when they announced the purchase that he has the power to anger the entire internet.

 

[Ulysses]

I hate how the article's author constantly cites Phantom Menace as a terrible movie. I quite liked it and think it gets a bum rap. I'm just not a prequel hater, and really don't get why so many fans are. I am also looking forward to the new trilogy.

There is an unlicensed edit of that movie that has been floating around, albeit very hard to find back then, and now, that had removed nearly 80% of the time Jar Jar was in the Phantom Menace. None of his C-plot story or antics were prominent, and un-surprisingly, the movie was kind of awesome and drastically improved for it.

Then there is an urban legend that Topher Grace (That 70s Show) re-edited all three prequel films into a single, 85-minute movie, that was also allegedly incredible and nailed all the major plot points without being bogged down by useless sub-plot. Although almost nobody, save for Topher and a few of his friends, have actually seen it.

That said, I think people only "hate" Phantom Menace because the expectations on that movie were high on a scale that I had never seen before, or since. Everyone assumed it would be the Citizen Kane of Sci-fi after having to wait more than 20 years after Jedi, but instead, we got the weakest of all the films.

 

[Ulysses]

Please read the Zahn books; it is wonderful time spent. Heir to the Empire.

I agree that Lucas should be out; I have faith in Disney to resurrect it (or destroy it of course). Jar Jar and Ann-ie were a hot mess.

When I get home, I'll check to see if the electronic versions are available. I have the paperback copies from the early 90s, but in 20+ years, never opened them, and now they are holed away somewhere in my mom's attic.

That said, I'm with you. Disney could either boom or bust with this, but at least a fresh set of eyes (and brains) are guiding the ship, and we don't know what to expect, which is a good thing I think.

 

[Lewisc]

Huge risk? When I think of a huge risk I think of a movie which has a big financial downside. A movie which, if it fails, could almost bankrupt a studio. Sahara. Heavens Gate.

Is there any doubt Star Wars VII will more then make enough to cover costs? First week theatrical. Reviews and word of mouth can be awful and fans will still want to see the move. Video. Cable. Merchandise.

I'll agree if the movie isn't done "right" (whatever that means) future sequels might suffer budget cutbacks, delayed production etc.

 

[Ulysses]

Huge risk? When I think of a huge risk I think of a movie which has a big financial downside. A movie which, if it fails, could almost bankrupt a studio. Sahara. Heavens Gate.

Is there any doubt Star Wars VII will more then make enough to cover costs? First week theatrical. Reviews and word of mouth can be awful and fans will still want to see the move. Video. Cable. Merchandise.

I'll agree if the movie isn't done "right" (whatever that means) future sequels might suffer budget cutbacks, delayed production etc.

It was one of the biggest acquisitions in Disney's history. As a licensed property, it will likely be a hit and sells tons of merchandise for another couple of decades even if they did nothing with it at all. However, to keep that momentum strong, this HAS to deliver to make sure Star Wars keeps its place in the hearts and minds of the next generation.

The prequels were a fail in the eyes of many die-hard fans of the 70s and 80s, but they did manage to bring in new fans and re-generate interest in the older assets. So, too, must this movie succeed in attracting more new fans to keep buying the merchandise and re-generating interest in the canon of the series.

Basically, this movie isn't a risk in the immediate sense, but Disney's first crack at this, if it doesn't sell, could damage the brand itself, which is much worse than a bad box office take. Now that it's out of the hands of George Lucas, that means the new movie will almost certainly be scrutinized much harder than any Star Wars movie before it.

 

[FlightlessDuck]

I'm sorry, these movies are not a risk. People will go see it. Guaranteed.

The "one off" movies, maybe. But a new trilogy? No.

 

[akadada]

I'm sorry, these movies are not a risk. People will go see it. Guaranteed.

The "one off" movies, maybe. But a new trilogy? No.

This is really more than just a movie. I agree that a huge amount of people will go and see it. It being the first movie, but it's not just a movie, it's a franchise and a franchise value is the present value of future earnings, not just the first movie. They could easily blow the franchise yet make a fortune on the movie; subsequently hurting shareholder and Star Wars Legacy value.

 

[DanBoris]

It was one of the biggest acquisitions in Disney's history. As a licensed property, it will likely be a hit and sells tons of merchandise for another couple of decades even if they did nothing with it at all. However, to keep that momentum strong, this HAS to deliver to make sure Star Wars keeps its place in the hearts and minds of the next generation.

The prequels were a fail in the eyes of many die-hard fans of the 70s and 80s, but they did manage to bring in new fans and re-generate interest in the older assets. So, too, must this movie succeed in attracting more new fans to keep buying the merchandise and re-generating interest in the canon of the series.

Basically, this movie isn't a risk in the immediate sense, but Disney's first crack at this, if it doesn't sell, could damage the brand itself, which is much worse than a bad box office take. Now that it's out of the hands of George Lucas, that means the new movie will almost certainly be scrutinized much harder than any Star Wars movie before it.

Exactly this. Episode 7 is as sure a bet as you can get in Hollywood, but Disney wants to turn this into something like the Marvel franchise with a Star Wars related movie every year, TV Shows, new theme park attractions, etc. They want this to be a source of major "tent pole" films for the foreseeable future. In Disney's 2013 financial report you will find this:

"Intangible assets primarily consist of intellectual property based on the Star Wars franchise with an estimated useful life of approximately 40 years. The goodwill reflects the value to Disney from leveraging Lucasfilm intellectual property across our distribution channels, taking advantage of Disney's established global reach."

A bad Episode 7 might not put an end to all those plans but it will make it much harder.

 

[Twin Dad]

Exactly this. Episode 7 is as sure a bet as you can get in Hollywood, but Disney wants to turn this into something like the Marvel franchise with a Star Wars related movie every year, TV Shows, new theme park attractions, etc. They want this to be a source of major "tent pole" films for the foreseeable future. In Disney's 2013 financial report you will find this:

"Intangible assets primarily consist of intellectual property based on the Star Wars franchise with an estimated useful life of approximately 40 years. The goodwill reflects the value to Disney from leveraging Lucasfilm intellectual property across our distribution channels, taking advantage of Disney's established global reach."

A bad Episode 7 might not put an end to all those plans but it will make it much harder.

Exactly, this is a $4B long term investment by Disney to help reach a demographic they've historically struggled with, boys 6 to 18. Plus their dads. A poor first film will make repaying that investment a challenge. A solid film and Disney share holders will look like Uncle Scrooge in his money vault.

 

[xie]

I have a bunch of coworkers and friends who are more of the casual Star Wars fan. When they say they are worried of what Disney will do I just point to what they've done with Marvel.

That's just it - I'm not too sure about pointing to Marvel to say that Disney will do fine with Star Wars, because Marvel's own team is still firmly in charge, creatively speaking, of the Marvel universe, characters and film productions. Disney Studios just does the marketing and distribution. On top of that, many of the Marvel movies released in the last 4 years were already in some stage of development pipelines prior to Disney acquiring them. And Disney will let Marvel Studios' team "remain in charge" creatively speaking as long as they're pulling in the dollars, unless someone comes along to replace Iger or another Disney higher up who is so egomaniacal they think they can out-Marvel Marvel.

I'm not so sure that the remnants of Lucas's organization, having not made any movies in so many years, are in the "fighting fit" team shape that Marvel's film division is. By default, that means Disney's going to be right in the middle of the creating the team and the film itself, instead of simply marketing/distributing it. That could mean we get the delightfully surprising equivalent of the first ripping fun "Pirates of the Caribbean" movie, or it could mean we get the bombed Eddie Murphy "Haunted Mansion" movie. Only time will tell. I do hope it's good.

 

[Twin Dad]

That's just it - I'm not too sure about pointing to Marvel to say that Disney will do fine with Star Wars, because Marvel's own team is still firmly in charge, creatively speaking, of the Marvel universe, characters and film productions. Disney Studios just does the marketing and distribution. On top of that, many of the Marvel movies released in the last 4 years were already in some stage of development pipelines prior to Disney acquiring them. And Disney will let Marvel Studios' team "remain in charge" creatively speaking as long as they're pulling in the dollars, unless someone comes along to replace Iger or another Disney higher up who is so egomaniacal they think they can out-Marvel Marvel.

I'm not so sure that the remnants of Lucas's organization, having not made any movies in so many years, are in the "fighting fit" team shape that Marvel's film division is. By default, that means Disney's going to be right in the middle of the creating the team and the film itself, instead of simply marketing/distributing it. That could mean we get the delightfully surprising equivalent of the first ripping fun "Pirates of the Caribbean" movie, or it could mean we get the bombed Eddie Murphy "Haunted Mansion" movie. Only time will tell. I do hope it's good.

When I say look at what Disney has done with Marvel, I'm referring to the hands off approach they've taken. Marvel makes the films and Disney is the distributor and handles the merchandise. So far it looks like Kathleen Kennedy is calling the shots with regards to the movie. I'm not sure whose call it was on rearranging Lucasarts and the Clone Wars but my guess that was a Disney call.

 

[lockedoutlogic]

Huge risk? When I think of a huge risk I think of a movie which has a big financial downside. A movie which, if it fails, could almost bankrupt a studio. Sahara. Heavens Gate.

Is there any doubt Star Wars VII will more then make enough to cover costs? First week theatrical. Reviews and word of mouth can be awful and fans will still want to see the move. Video. Cable. Merchandise.

I'll agree if the movie isn't done "right" (whatever that means) future sequels might suffer budget cutbacks, delayed production etc.

As always...

It seems that we must discuss that it's NOT just about a quarterly earnings number.

Another stinker will torpedo this ship...it may linger on indefinitely...but she's going down no matter what.

A popcorn two month gross on crap...like transformers or even some of the avalanche of marvel sequels...is the absolute wrong move.

I don't know if you're a Star Wars fan...but believe me that some of us feel a disturbance in the force with this.

 

[Twin Dad]

As always...

It seems that we must discuss that it's NOT just about a quarterly earnings number.

Another stinker will torpedo this ship...it may linger on indefinitely...but she's going down no matter what.

A popcorn two month gross on crap...like transformers or even some of the avalanche of marvel sequels...is the absolute wrong move.

I don't know if you're a Star Wars fan...but believe me that some of us feel a disturbance in the force with this.

Preach on brother. This franchise is full of land mines, however. You have an exceptionally loyal fan base who has been around over 30 years. They gobble up anything with the franchise. That said, it is also an extremely finicky fan base. They turned the creator for Jar Jar and a host of other miscues. They are livid that he sold out to Disney even though without the mouse there would be no new films.

If the first film is solid then the rumblings will fade. If not, to quote Obi Wan, "I feel a great disturbance in the Force. As if millions of voices cried out in terror."

 

[akadada]

As always...

It seems that we must discuss that it's NOT just about a quarterly earnings number.

Another stinker will torpedo this ship...it may linger on indefinitely...but she's going down no matter what.

A popcorn two month gross on crap...like transformers or even some of the avalanche of marvel sequels...is the absolute wrong move.

I don't know if you're a Star Wars fan...but believe me that some of us feel a disturbance in the force with this.

I return to my request: bring in Timothy Zahn in some way, shape, or form and at least we'll have some relative confidence that the legacy could be not just maintained, but enhanced.

 

[lockedoutlogic]

I return to my request: bring in Timothy Zahn in some way, shape, or form and at least we'll have some relative confidence that the legacy could be not just maintained, but enhanced.

No offense...but i think there tends to be an illogical love for the Zahn books. They weren't bad, but I didnt like alot of the elements in those books.
Kidnapped jedi, smugglers, lost fleets, gremlin dark side jedi assassins ( spoiler alert!)...and alot of references to the movies...seemed kinda corny.

Don't think that kind of stuff would translate well onto a movie screen the way they need it too. I think Zahn was received well because it was the very first NEW Star Wars thing after ten years. True fans loved it so much...but it went away and we were all left alone while George counted pennies, made tucker and Howard the duck, and complained that he couldn't afford to make more movies with actual actors, sets and props (a harbinger of the horror to come)...that we had wind blown into our sails no matter what Zahn wrote.

Between 83 and 93 when Zahn came out... There were some great movies and characters... But nothing really replaced the three Star Wars movies. That is not the case now...as George ran into a buzz saw called "the matrix" in march of 99 and never got off the mat by being repeatedly bludgeoned by lord of the rings, Spider-Man, xmen, pirates of the Caribbean, etc.

I just think we give the Zahn books more credit than due based on the circumstances.

The next movie should really be a character story...or a ridiculous action spectacle...not an attempt at both:
They just tried to do both...and in the course of 2 hour and 15 minute clips managed to have HORRID, comical characters and frankly not even decent action save for a couple of sequences...most came off as clownish too.

 

[akadada]

No offense...but i think there tends to be an illogical love for the Zahn books. They weren't bad, but I didnt like alot of the elements in those books.
Kidnapped jedi, smugglers, lost fleets, gremlin dark side jedi assassins ( spoiler alert!)...and alot of references to the movies...seemed kinda corny.

Don't think that kind of stuff would translate well onto a movie screen the way they need it too. I think Zahn was received well because it was the very first NEW Star Wars thing after ten years. True fans loved it so much...but it went away and we were all left alone while George counted pennies, made tucker and Howard the duck, and complained that he couldn't afford to make more movies with actual actors, sets and props (a harbinger of the horror to come)...that we had wind blown into our sails no matter what Zahn wrote.

Between 83 and 93 when Zahn came out... There were some great movies and characters... But nothing really replaced the three Star Wars movies. That is not the case now...as George ran into a buzz saw called "the matrix" in march of 99 and never got off the mat by being repeatedly bludgeoned by lord of the rings, Spider-Man, xmen, pirates of the Caribbean, etc.

I just think we give the Zahn books more credit than due based on the circumstances.

The next movie should really be a character story...or a ridiculous action spectacle...not an attempt at both:
They just tried to do both...and in the course of 2 hour and 15 minute clips managed to have HORRID, comical characters and frankly not even decent action save for a couple of sequences...most came off as clownish too.

Wait now, before I get into my reply. . . what didn't you like about Howard the Duck?...truly one of Lucas's wisest decisions. . . perhaps we should have seen Jar Jar coming...


I understand what you're saying. I agree that the reason Zahn launched is because he was able to follow the the originals and fans hungered for it.

The major point of Zahn's books, as I read them, was to continue from episode 6 within something like 10 years of Ewoks. So I actually think Zahn did a very job with character and storyline development.

Thrawn was a risky character to develop that I think paid off big. It expanded the universe and offered another way for the reader to consider the power of the Empire.

A number of other authors go along with Zahn's foundation and bring the characters with them into their own storylines, which is really what, as a legacy viewer/reader, should want to see rather than a dozen authors inventing their own universe independent of each other. To me, Zahn laid the groundwork for great segways, whether you want Luke to get married or not.

I think it's fair to say Zahn is recognized as a relatively positive contributor. I simply think Zahn adds credibility to the legacy side of the Franchise. Abrams does not. Neither does Disney. There's just a hope, and a justifiable expectation, that the two combined will deliver.

Whether the next movie is either character story or action, it still needs to be something long-time followers will track beyond the first movie. Zahn would bring some credibility to the plan, while essentially everyone else that's in the loop currently is speculative.

Another way to look at it: who else is out there that legacy fans can appreciate, recognize, and feel comfortable that the true franchise succeeds in the right direction for future generations?

Thoughts?

 

[lockedoutlogic]

We have a fundamental difference...


I don't like much of any of the "EU"...it's more comic book..which is fine.
But a fundamental difference is that the comic books flood material and then only the "best" ideas go to TV and or the big screen...
Star Wars has been an inverse funnel... The more the "eu" expands...the more the quality is diluted away from the good original material.
Star Wars missed in that it was "too good" for other material for 10 years... And then was flooded with horrid product from there after.

I always thought a TV serial like st:tng would have sustained Star Wars towards new movies much better than what happened. I guess hindsight was 20/20.

While Abrams and Disney have no "star wars cred"...the material has been bad from the inside.

Lets be serious. Just junk to sell product.

They realistically can't do worse. And I don't think Disney bought Lucas to rape the IP like Eisner did with the direct to VHS sequels. I think they have learned some lessons.

It seems they are turning to more"premium" product across the board.

We'll see shortly...when the rebels cartoon show premieres.

Howard the duck > jar jar X 1000

 

[lockedoutlogic]

And by the way...the legacy is being carried by Kathy Kennedy and Lawrence kasdan...

They know what's at stake.

I think it's important to note that they canned the "Disney" screenwriter and turned it over to the "star wars" guy last year.
My guess is that there was a huge battle between Kennedy/Abrams and the suits in the dwarf building over that.

Why the writer of the least clever toy story and little miss sunshine was tapped for Star Wars was flabbergasting in the first place...blade runner guy wasn't available...I suppose?

I think so far the Side that is closer to the "hardcore" fans is winning the struggle...now they just have to get the camera rolling and not quit till they have a B+/A- film at a MINIMUM overall.
I don't care if it takes 5 years of recuts and rewrites... Failure is not an option.

Lets face it...the reason that prequels where delivered in a flaming paper bag was that Lucas had total control over the product... No other opinions were asked for...and I think Disney learned that disastrous lesson

I'm cautiously optimistic.