Which resort is best for resale in 15 years?

[Yinn]

BLT..POLY...CCV.....................SSR

BLT is your best bet if all you care about is long term resale value. Its not impacted by any changes to resort transportation, any buyer could use it, its room spread is better than POLY/CCV, and much of its value is based on people wanting to stay there.

Now I personally always had reservations on BLT and after seeing it in person during a recent room tour I wouldn't want it as a home resort.

In 15 years the discussion on 2042 expiration and SSR losing its ability to book at 7 months will likely be all the rage causing it to further be devalued. Look at how low VWR is right now and thats a beloved resort by many with more space than CCV and easier booking.

What's VWR?

 

[sethschroeder]

What's VWR?

Me mixing everything up. Meant BRV/VWL haha

 

[tgarre06]

Yes agree

VGF, I’d love to, but it is out of my budget. Plus it seems they only have a few studios anyways, and that is all I would have enough points for.

 

[RoseGold]

I was originally set on SSR due to price, but I feel like we will get more back at resale on a longer contract since I doubt we will own it more than 15 years. I was leaning PVB, but the point chart is so much. I am Type A and plan my vacations super far in advance, so I know I’ll be right on there at 11 months. Do you think I’d be okay grabbing a studio at the 7 month mark for Feb and April northeast school vacations? It seems that I may have luck grabbing studios at Poly and BLT at the 7 month mark if we wanted, so I didn’t know if it made sense to buy there since that is a possibility.

For school vacations and studios in particular, I would book where you want to stay.

Betting on a prime location studio at 7 months is setting yourself up to fail. You could buy SSR points and set yourself up to get a 1BR at 7 months, but that doesn't sound like your plan.

Sounds like BLT is a good solution all around for you, because you are trying to be cost effective and hold resale value. Hard to argue with that BLT chart, and that 11 month is a real advantage. In 15 years, that BLT chart is going to be looking even tastier, like the current 2042 charts. BUT, BLT studios are tight!!!

Edit to add: We are a family of three, and I'd still consider a BLT studio too tight for more than a couple nights. Poly studios are much bigger.

 

[MBTigger]

BLT is probably the best compromise of price, contract length and 11 month advantage, unless you really have your heart set on staying at Poly.
I went with team SSR and white card because I was not sure how often I would book before the 7 month window, and we tend to prefer 1 bedrooms which are easier to get. If we decide the 7 month advantage at a resort is a necessity, then we might buy another contract...

 

[Jdlucas24]

We rented at BLT last year and bought a resale contract this summer. Loved the ability to walk over to MK early, head back to BLT during peak mid-day hours and then go back to the park when everyone starts to leave in late afternoon/early evening.

We also prefer 1 or 2 bedrooms, so Poly wouldn't work for us. I bought mine for $136/pt and see now Disney exercising ROFR at $140-145 so I feel good about the investment.

 

[APiratesLifeForMe2]

We are currently looking to add on and narrowed down to BLT & Poly. I keep leaning towards Poly because the prices on the resale market right now are excellent and seem to be more Poly contracts for sale than BLT. We are a soon to be family of 4 and I haven't ruled out eventually being a family of 5 so I liked Poly for the larger studios. We figured if we bought at BLT we would need enough points to get a 1 bedroom so this is what has us leaning towards Poly. Only downside for us is not having 1 bedroom options but we are ok with booking at 7 months for 1 bedrooms when needed and it doesn't hurt we also have 3 other contracts we could use also. As far as which will be more valuable in 15 years, I would say BLT and Poly will be on track to maintain high value being MK resorts and if you weren't ready to sell but decided to take a few year break you can easily rent BLT and Poly points at a premium.

 

[Yinn]

We are currently looking to add on and narrowed down to BLT & Poly. I keep leaning towards Poly because the prices on the resale market right now are excellent and seem to be more Poly contracts for sale than BLT. We are a soon to be family of 4 and I haven't ruled out eventually being a family of 5 so I liked Poly for the larger studios. We figured if we bought at BLT we would need enough points to get a 1 bedroom so this is what has us leaning towards Poly. Only downside for us is not having 1 bedroom options but we are ok with booking at 7 months for 1 bedrooms when needed and it doesn't hurt we also have 3 other contracts we could use also. As far as which will be more valuable in 15 years, I would say BLT and Poly will be on track to maintain high value being MK resorts and if you weren't ready to sell but decided to take a few year break you can easily rent BLT and Poly points at a premium.

Those are both reasonable takes. Adding to it though is that the 1 bedroom standards at BLT are difficult to get if you don't own a BLT contract. So you have to take into account the point premium required to get a lake view. Where as Poly is often available at 7 months out. The trade off is that Poly contracts and dues are cheaper than BLT, and has a slightly longer term.

 

[APiratesLifeForMe2]

Those are both reasonable takes. Adding to it though is that the 1 bedroom standards at BLT are difficult to get if you don't own a BLT contract. So you have to take into account the point premium required to get a lake view. Where as Poly is often available at 7 months out. The trade off is that Poly contracts and dues are cheaper than BLT, and has a slightly longer term.

Yes! Those BLT standard view 1 bedrooms (and even studios) are spotty at best at 7 months.

 

[AvidDisReader]

BLT 1 bedroom has 2 bathrooms, full kitchen, and in room washer/dryer (very handy when you have young ones), Poly studio has none of these. Make sure when comparing you take into consideration these options when making a decision.

 

[havoc315]

I suspect Poly will hold its value best 15 years from now....
SSR will be too near the end of its contract..
BLT, I feel isn't aging well. It already is starting to feel "dated." When it opened, it had the novelty of location -- The only DVC on the monorail, the only DVC you could walk to Magic Kingdom from. But that novelty is gone now, with 3 DVCs on the monorail. And arguably, the walk from GFV is nicer than BLT, which is basically cutting through a parking lot. And BLT studios are small -- which will be even more obvious as newer resorts with bigger rooms get built.
Polynesian will always be classic Disney, it will still have 30 years left on the contract. Yes, it's basically all studios, but studios are the most popular room choice, and they are pretty large studios.

Now all that said -- resale value 15 years from now is very hard to predict. There will likely be different re-sale restrictions in place by then. Many resorts will be nearing the end of their contracts.

I would not make a purchase based on, "which will have the best re-sale value in 15 years" -- I'd look solely at, "which resort do I want to own now, and for the foreseeable future"
I discourage people from look at this as an investment. If you're not going to "get your money's worth" during your ownership, then you probably shouldn't do it.

 

[scbruno]

I agree my next contract would be VGF.

 

[bookwormde]

One factor I have not heard mentioned is the potential for additional buildings being built and integrated into either VGF or BLT

With the VGF demand, I could see VGF north happening sooner than later which would make the points even more attractive which also makes it more likely to end up as a true add on (like Kidani or THV)

While BLT II may still happen I think it will be close to 10 years ( Reflections, BCV/YC area and VGF north ahead of it) which makes it using the same point pool as the current BLT unlikely.

If VGF north happens and is fully integrated, Proximity/walkway and MK views could make it price wise behave more like VGC

 

[Lorana]

One factor I have not heard mentioned is the potential for additional buildings being built and integrated into either VGF or BLT

With the VGF demand, I could see VGF north happening sooner than later which would make the points even more attractive which also makes it more likely to end up as a true add on (like Kidani or THV)

While BLT II may still happen I think it will be close to 10 years ( Reflections, BCV/YC area and VGF north ahead of it) which makes it using the same point pool as the current BLT unlikely.

If VGF north happens and is fully integrated, Proximity/walkway and MK views could make it price wise behave more like VGC

Okay, if a VGF north happened, I'd definitely be tempted to add on. I really love a walkable resort, but BLT is just not my jam in terms of theming, and theming is part of what I go to Disney for! While I'd rather a CCV/BRV/AKV/PBV over VGF, if VGF North was a bookable category, I like the theming enough to consider it.

 

[bookwormde]

Okay, if a VGF north happened, I'd definitely be tempted to add on. I really love a walkable resort, but BLT is just not my jam in terms of theming, and theming is part of what I go to Disney for! While I'd rather a CCV/BRV/AKV/PBV over VGF, if VGF North was a bookable category, I like the theming enough to consider it.

Yes VGF is too rich for my budget, though I did enjoy it when a picked up 3 days in a standard as part of a multi split stay. If I was in the market CCV would be my top choice, though I really wish they had done CL there (I got a magical upgrade from a standard to a CL cash room many years ago)

 

[sethschroeder]

One factor I have not heard mentioned is the potential for additional buildings being built and integrated into either VGF or BLT

With the VGF demand, I could see VGF north happening sooner than later which would make the points even more attractive which also makes it more likely to end up as a true add on (like Kidani or THV)

While BLT II may still happen I think it will be close to 10 years ( Reflections, BCV/YC area and VGF north ahead of it) which makes it using the same point pool as the current BLT unlikely.

If VGF north happens and is fully integrated, Proximity/walkway and MK views could make it price wise behave more like VGC

I don't see any new resort being combined with the old resort. They are not going to bring a VGF and not have resale restrictions on it.

I also think if they build a new VGF 2.0 tower on the other side of the resort it has a superior location being that much closer walking to MK. When it comes to BLT 2.0 where would they build it because that could be hit or miss.

Honestly I think any new 2.0 resort actually will more likely have a CCV influence on BRV which is depress not increase the value. Its a complete guessing game though if they even ever build those resorts or not and when.

 

[Lorana]

Yes VGF is too rich for my budget, though I did enjoy it when a picked up 3 days in a standard as part of a multi split stay. If I was in the market CCV would be my top choice, though I really wish they had done CL there (I got a magical upgrade from a standard to a CL cash room many years ago)

So I own at CCV, and if they had done Concierge Level for it, I'd be in heaven. Especially as I also own at AKV, and so the idea of being able to get concierge at both would be awesome. I'm so sad that no other DVC has a Concierge option (though I'm not sad about saving the points those CLs would cost me!).

 

[happythoughts & pixiedust]

If planning to resell I'd be careful with SSR. One of the reasons it has remained one of the most economical resorts to purchase resale (If held to contract expiration) is the fact that it has not had a stellar resale value. Adjusted for inflation, SSR has lost about 0.5% of its value per year since it went on sale. Conversely, the reason VGC is among the most expensive contracts to own (held to expiration) is precisely because it has appreciated far more than every other DVC Resort (in excess of 4% every year after adjusting for inflation). There isn't any major reason to suspect that SSR resale values will improve over the next 15 years (vs. their historical average), and more reason to believe they will fare worse as the expiration date gets closer and the demand from the "I'm looking to buy the most economical resort crowd" dries up.

Here is my opinion of which resorts will have the best resale value in 15 years based on historical trends:

+0.5 to 1.5% annually over inflation (sell for more than initial investment, adjusted for inflation):
1. Grand Floridian ("flagship" cache, monorail, small resort, high demand, long contract, must-own for studios)
2. Bay Lake Tower (closest/easiest walk to MK, best chart value on monorail, long contract) (CON: TINY studios)
3. Polynesian (nostalgia, best/biggest studios, high rental demand, monorail, long contract) (CON: unit mix - no 1/3BRs)

-0.5 to +0.5% annually over inflation (on average get initial investment back adjusted for inflation):
4. Copper Creek (long contract, attractive value point chart, must-own for studios)
5. Riviera - SMALL CONTRACTS (won't be affected as much by resale restrictions)
6. Grand Californian (can't outperform forever, Disneyland Tower will add capacity in LA and help normalize VGC prices)

-2.5 to -1.5% annually, adjusted for inflation (may get back same number of dollars invested, but 15 years later those dollars are worth less than they are today)
7. Animal Kingdom (middle length contract, but in 15 years won't quite have hit the steep value drop off yet)
8. Saratoga Springs (never a strong resale performer, in 15 years will only have 18 years left)
9. Old Key West Extended
10. Riviera - LARGE CONTRACTS (resale restrictions will make large contracts much less attractive)
11. Aulani (worst resale performance among resorts with greater than 7 year history)

-5 to -7% annually, adjusted for inflation (somewhere between 50-70% loss in value over 15 years)
12. Beach Club, Boardwalk, Boulder Ridge, OKW, Vero Beach, Hilton Head (in 15 years these will only have 6 years left)

 

[KeithSS]

I pretty much would agree with that assessment

 

[WRLeGrand]

I suspect Poly will hold its value best 15 years from now....
SSR will be too near the end of its contract..
BLT, I feel isn't aging well. It already is starting to feel "dated." When it opened, it had the novelty of location -- The only DVC on the monorail, the only DVC you could walk to Magic Kingdom from. But that novelty is gone now, with 3 DVCs on the monorail. And arguably, the walk from GFV is nicer than BLT, which is basically cutting through a parking lot. And BLT studios are small -- which will be even more obvious as newer resorts with bigger rooms get built.
Polynesian will always be classic Disney, it will still have 30 years left on the contract. Yes, it's basically all studios, but studios are the most popular room choice, and they are pretty large studios.

Now all that said -- resale value 15 years from now is very hard to predict. There will likely be different re-sale restrictions in place by then. Many resorts will be nearing the end of their contracts.

I would not make a purchase based on, "which will have the best re-sale value in 15 years" -- I'd look solely at, "which resort do I want to own now, and for the foreseeable future"
I discourage people from look at this as an investment. If you're not going to "get your money's worth" during your ownership, then you probably shouldn't do it.

I am not really sure where you are getting the take that the "novelty" of BLT is wearing off. It is consistently have the highest resale price per point behind Grand Floridian. You are never going to take away the "novelty" of being able to walk 5 minutes and have a private security check point into Magic Kingdom. Not to mention is has a lot of years remaining on the contracts.

We have both Poly and BLT, but as our kids have gotten older, we realize that a studio simply cannot be in the cards for very much longer.