Where would you buy if you planned to sell in 12 years?

[brianm27]

Buy where you will happy now. Don't over buy points.

If you really like what have, there may not be a reason to sell in 12 years. If you compromise and try to outguess the future market, you will most likely be disappointed in some fashion between now and the time you desire to sell.

My wife and I had 10 years of Disney vacations before our daughter was born. In many ways, the WDW resort is for adults. We have no plans of selling when our daughter grows up.

 

[drakethib]

If I had planned to sell down the road, I would not purchase in the first place.

But that's just me...

Agree.

 

[JandD Mom]

We bought BWV because we think without a doubt, it's the best deal. Here's why: because of the standard view option, you can buy fewer points than BCV and get the same amount of use as BCV (if you want to stay standard view at least some of the time). This means, even though the fees are higher at BW, you actually pay less since you are paying the fee on fewer points.

For instance, to stay Nov 4 to Nov 11 in a 1 bedroom at BCV is 214 points (please forget for a moment that many DVC members never use points over a weekend). To stay at a standard 1 bedroom at BWV for those same dates would be 174 points. That's a 40 point difference for the week!

This year we are getting a 2 bedroom. That would cost us 282 at the BCV but only 236 at a BWV standard 2 br. That's a 46 point difference. If you figure that usage into your initial buy in, it makes a big difference. Also, a studio for 5 days at that time of year in a standard is 45 points. So (if you do what we did) you can rent those 45 points out and put that money toward your member fees to help defray the cost. Or you can make another trip out of it.

Also, even if the price goes down by $10 per point in 12 years (which I don't see happening) we figured we would still have ended up vacationing for 12 years at a substantial discount over what we would have paid if we rented or booked rooms through Disney.

On top of all of that, if you buy resale, BW sells at cheaper than BC. So those are just some of the reasons we decided to buy BWV.

 

[Dean]

I'm pretty much now where you'd be in 12 years. We've owned 12 years and plan to sell after a Xmas trip this Dec. I will keep my hand in DVC by buying a smaller contract and will take other trips through II to both DVC and other locations. Would I buy now knowing what I know and planning to sell in 12 years? The answer is it depends. IF I planned to go every year and take advantage of the savings and flexibility for those 12 years, I likely would. Esp if I wanted busier times and/or could take advantages of the lower weekday points. But it's hard to imagine anyone going this often for 12 years then totally quitting cold turkey. You may want to buy a very small contract and try it out. You can always bank, borrow and rent for transfer.

As to which resort to buy if you did decide to, there are many factors and it depends on your preferences. I don't think that SSR will have enough higher value at 12 years from now over the small 3. But it will over OKW, HH and VB most likely.

 

[JimC]

If DVC makes sense for you now, then buy now. My advice is pick a conservative timeframe -- 10 years, 15 years -- look at your expected family holiday needs over that time and see if it makes financially. Use no value for the contract at the end of your planning horizon (very conservative unless your time frame is the end of contract). It is impossible to say exactly how life will unfold but this might assist you in making the decision.

I am still in the camp of buy based on your vacation preferences. If you want to be able to book over 7 months out at a particular resort then buy there. If you can not book over 7 months out or location is less important, buy where your total cost of ownership is least.

 

[spiceycat]

I'll start by answering your question. I'd wait for VCR or whatever the newest resort will be to be announced in a year or so.

I have to say I agree with the buy BCV or BWV posts NOW. The real question is how about 12-15 years from now? Those properties, as great as they are, won't hold there value forever.

Would I pay top dollar for a RTU contract at BCV or BWV with 20 years of use? NO. Either would many of the younger purchasers. A limited market means less money. Kind of like homes with inground pools. They actually end up being worth less because there is a whole group of people who wouldn't want one. Older purchasers might not mind only 20 years of use but younger purchasers or number crunchers will find a contract that short less appealing and will likely pass it up for the "new" product on the market. How could you justify buying a product with 20 years use over one with 50? Even if they do hold there value 12 years from now what about 5-10 years after that? What if someone that buys your BCV contract HAD TO SELL that contract with only 10 years left? What would it be worth then? These are all questions potential buyers 12 years from now will be looking at.

These are the reasons that I feel the older DVC Resorts will slowly start to lose there value in the coming years. My guess is that the decline will begin shortly after the new DVC Resort gets announced. DVC inflates the market now by exercising ROFR. They will likely do this less and less in the coming years with the older DVC Resorts.

Good luck with this, if only we all had a crystal ball.

sorry as long as the BCV are the only DVC resort that have access to SALB - they are not losing much value. SALB is what 20 years old - and it is still the best pool at any resort (not park).

besides if that day ever came Disney would buy (based on the current economy) the DVC resorts back and rent them. they are NEVER going to allow anyone to stay onsite at WDW for less than oh say $12,000 owning a week at one of their DVC resorts...(this is a BIG guess). It would not only damage the DVC program but would also hurt the other WDW resorts... Disney is NOT going to do that....

I can definitely see them renting the 2-bedroom at bcv.....

they have made so much money on the DVC - that sales would have to stop and sales have never completely stopped since DVC started....

It is cheaper to own than rent from CRO and in most cases from DVC members...

 

[FlyingfreeWDW]

sorry as long as the BCV are the only DVC resort that have access to SALB - they are not losing much value. SALB is what 20 years old - and it is still the best pool at any resort (not park).

besides if that day ever came Disney would buy (based on the current economy) the DVC resorts back and rent them. they are NEVER going to allow anyone to stay onsite at WDW for less than oh say $12,000 owning a week at one of their DVC resorts...(this is a BIG guess). It would not only damage the DVC program but would also hurt the other WDW resorts... Disney is NOT going to do that....

I can definitely see them renting the 2-bedroom at bcv.....

they have made so much money on the DVC - that sales would have to stop and sales have never completely stopped since DVC started....

It is cheaper to own than rent from CRO and in most cases from DVC members...

Spiceycat,

I can't agree with what you are saying here. BCV simply cannot hold its value forever. It is a RTU contract and that contract expires. The closer we get to the expiration date the resale value is going to drop. I'm selling my house right now, why don't you buy it from me, it will last you for 15 years. You wouldn't buy it unless it was at a bargain rate. Same thing for BCV,OKW, VB, HH, and VWL. Those resorts, as great as they are, will eventually drop in price.

Personally, I don't have a crystal ball but I can tell you this. Maybe I'm not as WDW crazy as everyone else but holding DVC until the end is a mistake in my mind. I'll use my SSR contract for say 12 -15 years and then sell at a rate equal to or more than what I bought in for. I won't wait and see what the contract value is near the end of the term. There is more to the travel world than DVC and WDW. I'll enjoy the DVC now and then I'll sell or retain only a small contract. DVC is poor from a trade standpoint and really only good if you stay weeknights. That works for us now but down the road as my son has more scheduling going on it likely won't. Wouldn't it be great if you could buy a car, use it for ten years and sell it for what you paid or more? Well you can do that with DVC if you play your cards right. Don't make the mistake of holding it until your contract is worthless. Sell and pass on an inheritance not a liability.

Sorry about your cat by the way. 20 years old is something else. Enjoy your DVC no matter what you decide.

 

[Dean]

It is my opinion that many DVC members overestimate the value of the system in the future. They assume that everyone will look at DVC now like some of the members of this board do, through rose colored glasses. As soon as DVC stops ROFR and the resorts are under 30 years (around 26-28 or so), the prices will start to fall. IMO, those that think DVC will have significant value at 5-10 years out compared to todays prices, are simply wrong. There will still be value, but nothing in compared to the prices now and will likely have little to do with CRO prices as the end nears.

 

[JimC]

I agree with Dean that the prices will fall at some point in the future.

But I am uncertain if either of the following strategies is necessarily right or wrong. I think each could be appropriate.

1. Buy and use till end of contract.

2. Buy, use then sell before the ROFR price drops.


I just don't accept the premise that the value of the contract is solely tied to it market price. It can equally apply to the value provided in great vacations -- its intended purpose.

 

[Dean]

I agree with Dean that the prices will fall at some point in the future.

But I am uncertain if either of the following strategies is necessarily right or wrong. I think each could be appropriate.

1. Buy and use till end of contract.

2. Buy, use then sell before the ROFR price drops.


I just don't accept the premise that the value of the contract is solely tied to it market price. It can equally apply to the value provided in great vacations -- its intended purpose.

Actually both of those options are good choices for many. The people who try to hit in between for whatever reason will be the ones who are going to lose out. The trouble is that the time when many will start to lose value in their contract is likely less than 10 years away. Hard to imagine buying now and reselling in that period for much of a profit. But if one uses during that time and enjoys it, even a mild loss might be worth it.

 

[CPTJAK]

As DVC grows to 100,000+ members more and more people are going to want to stay at various resorts (i.e. BCV/BWV). It is human nature people want what they can not get and they will pay for it, supply and demand.

At some point people will not buy due to time left but 25 years is still a long time. I believe if Disney wanted to they could conitnue to excercise ROFR and own more and more of the resorts and due with them whatever plan they had in place for 2042.

Why not execute that business model earlier if the price/members continue to sell there will be plenty of people with 100,000 + members willing to rent these rooms at BCV/BWV/OKW/WVL etc...

 

[eporter66]

SSR might be the easiest to sell, based on the fact that it would have the most years left on its contract versus the other sites.

But - as this board always states, it may be among the least favorite places to stay on site based on its location.

Obviously no one knows what the market will be like in 12 years, will Disney property be more or less valuable than it is now???

Some interesting thoughts on this post though!!!!!

Eric