Where would you buy if you planned to sell in 12 years?

[jenntish]

I'm trying to convince my husband that we should buy DVC (he's not a huge Disney fan... I grew up with it being a dream come true!). He feels strongly that he'll go along with it if we keep it until our kids are teens and ready to explore other places. Therefore, we'd probably sell it in 12-15 years.

Based on that, and considering that we would only buy re-sale now... does it make the most sense to buy SSR because it should have more value 10-15 years from now? (Based on the extra 12 years in the contract)?

I love the SSR pool, but absolutely love Beach Club, Boardwalk & Wilderness Lodge. I know everyone says "Buy where you want to stay," but many times we cannot plan a vacation 11 months out.

What would you do? Help! This has taken over my life and I can't sleep

 

[Boas]

just bought at BCV.. based on re-sale boards, this one currently seems to be one of the hardest to get.

 

[canwegosoon]

I think there will be real value in being able to book at BWV, BCV or VWL in 15 years...I just don't know how the hotels will be really showing their age and you might have to pay some hefty dues to keep them in good shape. On our recent trip there were MANY roof tiles missing from BC. But I think people will pay to have a gaurenteed spot at epcot or wl. As SSR sells out and another 2(poss3-and I am guessing here) DVC properties open there will be more and more members trying to get in to the BCV, BWV, and VWL at the 7 month window. Having those extra 4 months will become huge. But buy where you like.... Since you can not book out far, you might want to stay with SSR since it is large, you will usually be able to get a room at short notice.

 

[DVCLiz]

Ha ha, I love your DH!!!!! Please print this out for him so you can wave it under his nose in 12-15 years when you remind him that he wanted to sell...

Actually, if you really did want to sell, I think BCV or VWL would be a better bet. In 12 or 15 years, there will still be twenty years left on those contracts. Of course, the unknown variable is, "What else will be built in the next 10 to 15 years that will be more attractive?"

I think if and when my children (now 12 and 17) get tired of going to WDW, a trip to HH or Vero Beach will still be a nice option. At that time, I expect to use some or all of my points to stay at Concierge Collection hotels, too. Of course, that depends on what the offerings are at the time - right now, for example, my yearly points could get me a wonderful vacation at The Grove Park Inn in Asheville, whic is pretty close to my home in NC. Or I could easily have a week in NYC. There are just so many options that I don't forsee myself selling just because WDW isn't the main draw anymore.

But who knows? I might be right there with you!!!! In the meantime, I think it'll be fun to use my points for many wonderful vacations!

 

[DVCLiz]

I answered on your other thread....

 

[TammyAlphabet]

No where with DVC. I would just pay cash.

 

[rinkwide]

Be patient and wait for the Contemporary Villas.

 

[castleri]

Kids are 38, 36,32,20, GK are 19, 4 and 15 months with another on the way- bought 9 years ago - no chance of selling - they all still love to go - not always for the parks but for the Disney thing and DVC. No chance we'll be selling anytime soon if ever. maybe we'll try one of the off property things one of these days. Good luck with your decision.

 

[MdmMim]

If I had planned to sell down the road, I would not purchase in the first place.

But that's just me...

 

[CPTJAK]

I believe BCV because:

1. It is a great resort
2. It is a great resort
3. It seems easy to sell if you have to so you may break even in the end or lose very little if you need to sell

Remember that if you use a resell broker you still will need to pay their comission on the sale which could be significant, I have been told.

 

[CarolMN]

FYI - Just merged duplicate threads.

 

[Plutofan]

I would buy at the Beach club or wait for a Monorail resort to be announced. I have watched the re-sale boards a lot and the Beach Club sells fast. The problem with any resort right now is that you will not know at what point in time the price of the non SSR resorts will decrease based upon the number of years left on the contract. If you buy a DVC monorail resort there will probably be a lot of demand, little supply (it will probably be a small DVC) and have a lot more years left on the contract. Rumors have it that something might be known late this year or early next.

 

[mikesmom]

Any real estate person with experience would say location, location, location. BCV, BWV or VWL. They are small, will still have 20 years left and have location going for them.

 

[mickeyfan2]

If I had planned to sell down the road, I would not purchase in the first place.

But that's just me...

ITA

 

[LisaS]

If I had planned to sell down the road, I would not purchase in the first place.

But that's just me...

I agree. DVC is a pre-paid vacation plan, not an investment. There are way too many things that could happen in the next 12 years that could affect resale prices. To name a few: Disney could build a few new DVC resorts in that timeframe and one or more of them could become the new "hot" property. What if 10 years from now Disney announces the first DVC III resort with a 50-year contract life and people are advising perspective new members "Why buy SSR when you can get 12 more years at ..."

Even if Disney builds a DVC resort on the monorail, there are no guarantees that that resort would have the highest resale value in 12 years. There has been a lot of discussion on the boards about the possibility of DVC at the Contemporary. While many are excited about it, many others (myself included) don't find the CR at all appealing and have no interest in purchasing points at the CRV if they are ever built.

 

[spiceycat]

I have already owned at DVC for 13 years - I am not about to sell it....

BCV seems to have the most demand
followed by BWV and VWL - then SSR and OKW

but that is today.... tomorrow who knows....

but since it is the pool SALB that makes BCV so popular - plus of course being next door to Epcot - I don't think this is going to change over the years.

 

[FlyingfreeWDW]

I'll start by answering your question. I'd wait for VCR or whatever the newest resort will be to be announced in a year or so.

I have to say I agree with the buy BCV or BWV posts NOW. The real question is how about 12-15 years from now? Those properties, as great as they are, won't hold there value forever.

Would I pay top dollar for a RTU contract at BCV or BWV with 20 years of use? NO. Either would many of the younger purchasers. A limited market means less money. Kind of like homes with inground pools. They actually end up being worth less because there is a whole group of people who wouldn't want one. Older purchasers might not mind only 20 years of use but younger purchasers or number crunchers will find a contract that short less appealing and will likely pass it up for the "new" product on the market. How could you justify buying a product with 20 years use over one with 50? Even if they do hold there value 12 years from now what about 5-10 years after that? What if someone that buys your BCV contract HAD TO SELL that contract with only 10 years left? What would it be worth then? These are all questions potential buyers 12 years from now will be looking at.

These are the reasons that I feel the older DVC Resorts will slowly start to lose there value in the coming years. My guess is that the decline will begin shortly after the new DVC Resort gets announced. DVC inflates the market now by exercising ROFR. They will likely do this less and less in the coming years with the older DVC Resorts.

Good luck with this, if only we all had a crystal ball.

 

[rinkwide]

...What if 10 years from now Disney announces...

...there will be no more promo codes or AAA discounts on rack rate (easily as plausible as your scenario).

 

[LisaS]

...there will be no more promo codes or AAA discounts on rack rate (easily as plausible as your scenario).

It's funny you should mention that because it was the lack of promo codes that motivated DH and I to purchase DVC last summer. We got tired of waiting and wondering every year whether any AP codes would be announced for our travel dates, and whether they would be generous enough to justify staying at YC. So we bought points at BWV so we could stay in an Epcot resort at a more affordable price. I love being able to book 11 months out now!

 

[simpilotswife]

I would buy SSR because you should be able to sell it for more than the other resorts since there will be so much more time left on it.