Where is the DVC market going?

[snappy]

To say that the DVC resorts are not matched by off-site resorts is entirely incorrect. I can quickly name 3 or 4 resorts that easily surpass any DVC resort:

Hilton Grand Vacation Club - Seaworld
Hilton Grand Vacation Clulb - Internation Drive
Sheraton Vistana Villages
Wyndham Bonnet Creek (entrance is within Disney World).


BTW... You can rent these resorts at various places on the internet pretty cheap.

Joe

Joe, I have used vrbo and villas 2000 for houses. What internet site have you had luck with finding the above resorts for the best price?

 

[dvc at last !]

I want to subscribe to this thread, too.

Food for thought.

 

[disney dumbo]

$98 may look like a good deal now but will it be in the future, my guess is no for the 1942 resorts for most people. Anyone buying a timeshare should be considering the long term effect, risks and benefits or else they really should not buy. Obviously no one knows exactly what's going to happen but I feel many DVC members are pretty blind when it comes to the mouse plus they often make assumptions about timeshares that are rarely accurate.

Hello again!

For some strange reason... I feel like I need to reply again... sorry folks!
Dean, I get the feeling you don't understand what I am saying.

Looks like we agree on some statements you make:
Anyone buying a timeshare should be considering the long term effect, risks and benefits or else they really should not buy. Obviously no one knows exactly what's going to happen
I couldn't agree with you more. That IS what I am saying. At $98... the future looks great!
Will it be in the future?
It will constantly need to be evaluated... we both agree there.

But basically you believe it is at it's peak... and that's where we disagree. To me... that is the equivalent of comparing it to human life expectancy of 80 years... at 25 you are at your peak. Maybe you think that is true too? Not the way my life is working... thank the good Lord! In my book... "peak" is still a ways down the road.

I feel many DVC members are pretty blind when it comes to the mouse
I just don't SEE it that way... sorry for the pun!
When you disagree and call it blindness... you run the risk of BEING the oned that is actually blind! Is that okay with you?

I don't think "many" of us are stupid. We wouldn't be analyzing... researching, thinking, etc.

Sure, I see most DVC members on this board as being pro-DVC... that's why they bought... they like it... AND we have our eyes open. For me, I appreciate the mouse for all that it has offered through the years. Still, I will require it to hold certain standards in the future... not just give it complete merit based on its past history. But, I guess I must be an optimist... I really can't see them changing enough to lose me... but for the record... it could happen.

My favorite aspect of the mouse would be for the pure escape it offers. Four major amusement parks... water parks... restaurants... without a doubt it is a destination with in itself. Compare it to an ocean... it holds title to ALL the oceanfront rooms... everything else sits in the distance. They can be deluxe... they can have a theme... they offer just about any amenity they want... but they will NEVER be oceanfront. We are offered a chance to lease some space. The only other way to stay there is rent. Complete ownership is out of the question... I believe they were brilliant to design it that way. They have more to risk than we do.

they often make assumptions about timeshares that are rarely accurate
Maybe that's true. I honestly don't know much about timeshares... because I don't believe DVC fits the mold of what was traditionally called a timeshare. It's more like a long term lease... with an option to sell the lease. This is what I've studied.

So, I'm content to say we disagree on the future of the next 34 years. Hope you understand my views a little bit better.

 

[dizzneebabe]

subscribing

 

[Budshark]

Looks like we agree on some statements you make:
Anyone buying a timeshare should be considering the long term effect, risks and benefits or else they really should not buy. Obviously no one knows exactly what's going to happen
I couldn't agree with you more. That IS what I am saying. At $98... the future looks great!

OK - I'll take a completely unsolicited shot at this...

I think you are both "roughly" saying the same thing here.

Disney Dumbo is saying that if you buy at $98/pt in 2007 - in 2037 you will likely be able to sell for the same or higher cost per point. And therefore; the $20,000 investment in 2007 would get you at least $20,000 in 2037 - even with only 5 years left. Fair enough?

What this doesn't include (and what I think Dean is alluding to) is the VALUE of the money in 2037 is different. So even though you got $98/pt back for the $98/pt you spent - the "value" of that $98 is only the equivalent of $20 in 2037 finances...

So - in Disney Dumbo's view you get your money back. True. In Dean's view the money you get back in 30 years isn't the same value as it was in 2007. True. Everyone is right - no one is wrong... we can all be happy



It is very hard to assess the future of DVC. Its been around roughly 15 years. Trying to determine the value of something twice as far in the future as its existed gives you a 0% probability of being accurate.

I think if we stick to the 5-10 year range we'll be better off. And in 5 years I see timeframe of contract having minimal impact on resale value. In 10 years, I see it starting to have an impact on OKW - but I think VWL, BCV, and BWVs location will override some of this (unless you get a CRV and/or Polynesian resort, which will hurt the 'premium' location status of VWL, BCV, and BWV)

Chris

 

[Dean]

Hello again!

For some strange reason... I feel like I need to reply again... sorry folks!
Dean, I get the feeling you don't understand what I am saying.

Looks like we agree on some statements you make:
Anyone buying a timeshare should be considering the long term effect, risks and benefits or else they really should not buy. Obviously no one knows exactly what's going to happen
I couldn't agree with you more. That IS what I am saying. At $98... the future looks great!
Will it be in the future?
It will constantly need to be evaluated... we both agree there.

But basically you believe it is at it's peak... and that's where we disagree. To me... that is the equivalent of comparing it to human life expectancy of 80 years... at 25 you are at your peak. Maybe you think that is true too? Not the way my life is working... thank the good Lord! In my book... "peak" is still a ways down the road.

I feel many DVC members are pretty blind when it comes to the mouse
I just don't SEE it that way... sorry for the pun!
When you disagree and call it blindness... you run the risk of BEING the oned that is actually blind! Is that okay with you?

I don't think "many" of us are stupid. We wouldn't be analyzing... researching, thinking, etc.

Sure, I see most DVC members on this board as being pro-DVC... that's why they bought... they like it... AND we have our eyes open. For me, I appreciate the mouse for all that it has offered through the years. Still, I will require it to hold certain standards in the future... not just give it complete merit based on its past history. But, I guess I must be an optimist... I really can't see them changing enough to lose me... but for the record... it could happen.

My favorite aspect of the mouse would be for the pure escape it offers. Four major amusement parks... water parks... restaurants... without a doubt it is a destination with in itself. Compare it to an ocean... it holds title to ALL the oceanfront rooms... everything else sits in the distance. They can be deluxe... they can have a theme... they offer just about any amenity they want... but they will NEVER be oceanfront. We are offered a chance to lease some space. The only other way to stay there is rent. Complete ownership is out of the question... I believe they were brilliant to design it that way. They have more to risk than we do.

they often make assumptions about timeshares that are rarely accurate
Maybe that's true. I honestly don't know much about timeshares... because I don't believe DVC fits the mold of what was traditionally called a timeshare. It's more like a long term lease... with an option to sell the lease. This is what I've studied.

So, I'm content to say we disagree on the future of the next 34 years. Hope you understand my views a little bit better.

We likely agree on most aspects but to explore further. I don't think the future of a 2042 resort looks great at $98 per point. I think only AKV really looks viable at that price range. It is my opinion that we are near the top for the 2042 resorts and that not only will the value decrease but actually faster than any inflation so the actual $$ value will decrease. So in 10 years $98 may be $70 and worth only $50, just as an example. So yes we disagree if you think there's much upside potential for the 2042 resorts at $98 per point. And I do truly believe that a large portion of the members here are not objective on many fronts related to DVC.

 

[littlestar]

To be honest I think that trying to project out maint fees and hotel rates is actually far less helpful and likely FAR less accurate than just taking the general situation, that's why I didn't bite with your offer to do so. I'd go further to say that one cannot do so with enough credibility to even use the numbers that far out. Maybe over the next 5-7 years but not that far out, FAR too many variables and most on the negative side. Would you honestly buy today if there were only 2-3 years left, I doubt even most die hards would do so. I doubt most would go through the hassle for the minor savings.

I do, I suspect most here would disagree. I think they are influenced now. If there were little good off site options for hotels and timeshares I think one could look at no Disney discounts, even higher Disney prices and likely $20-25 per point or more for rentals right now. In spite of what many here think, there is a large contingent that actually prefers to stay off site and a larger contingent that is happy to do so for the savings.

Most of my family actually prefer the Marriott Vacation Club resorts in Orlando. They say they have higher quality linens, better mattresses, and nicer furnishings, nicer TV's, etc.. I've even heard some of my family refer to certain DVC resort rooms as looking "dated." I think it's hard for some people to believe this, but it's true - a lot of people prefer offsite. I think with Seaworld adding a first class (amazing) water park next year, already having Discovery Cove, and of course, the Seaworld park, it's becoming more than a one-day destination. I have to wonder if the vacation club resorts over off of I drive will be even busier - the Hiltons, Marriotts, and Starwood properties. DVC/Disney is definitely not the only game in town. And a lot of those other vacation club resorts offer fantastic locations all around the world - and are adding more locations all the time.

Whether we keep all of our points or sell off most in the future, I'm not sure right now. If Disney stays a high quality family destination, then we'll probably keep some. But, if we find we're traveling to a lot more locations than central Florida, we'll probably sell most of the DVC points. The dues are just too high to use for trading on a regular basis.

 

[joestein]

Oops... I'm sorry.
Didn't mean to be "entirely incorrect".
Note my comment "In My Humble Opinion."
It's great that you have resorts you love.
I support your ability to make that choice and your right to proclaim their superiority!


Now THAT's what I'm talking about!
And maybe one day I'll just take that trip to Orlando and not go to Disney and LOVE staying at one of the resorts you've listed.


In my slanted view... this is sort of like buying into it... again IMHO.


Thanks for the tip... I do like to save money... and stay in nice places.
Just curious... do you own at those resorts... or trade into them?

Sorry I seemed to offend you.

You did not offend me at all, I am just amazed at how some people view anything that is associated with Disney.

In answer to your comments, I do not own at any of those resorts, I trade into them. I happen to own at a FF resort in Ft. Lauderdale and in Williamsburg, and both are "points" as opposed to fixed weeks. Based upon my readings around the internet, I have learned how to make the most of the points.

My Wife bought the property in Williamsburg specifically to trade into DVC or Marriot, as it trades in II. We purchased it resale on ebay for $599 (plus closing costs of $375), it gives us just enought points to get a red 2 bedroom deposit to II every other year. My 2 year mainteance total is approx. $600, but it also includes II membership, which is $100/yr, so my cost is really $400. While I rarely see a 2 bedroom DVC, 1 bedrooms are somewhat common, so for $400 I get trade into DVC every two years. If I owned DVC, how many points would that get me? About 80? For a 1 bedroom in May when I go it would be 250 DVC points or around $1250 maintenance. That is what I mean when I say that DVC is expensive.


BTW.. the places to rent some of these timeshares in orland are:

Armed Forces Vacation Club
Getravelop.com
http://www.rcihnresorts.com
http://www.realtimerental.com
http://www.holidaynetwork.com


Joe

 

[disney dumbo]

We likely agree on most aspects but to explore further. I don't think the future of a 2042 resort looks great at $98 per point. I think only AKV really looks viable at that price range. It is my opinion that we are near the top for the 2042 resorts and that not only will the value decrease but actually faster than any inflation so the actual $$ value will decrease. So in 10 years $98 may be $70 and worth only $50, just as an example. So yes we disagree if you think there's much upside potential for the 2042 resorts at $98 per point. And I do truly believe that a large portion of the members here are not objective on many fronts related to DVC.

Communication may not be my strong suit... but I do feel I'm getting a better grip on your thoughts. While we do agree on some... unfortunately, I don't think we agree on the peak theory. I believe you are saying "sell" and I am saying "buy".

My "buy" thoughts would certainly be offered with the traditional advice so frequently expressed through experienced DVC members here:
1. Buy if you have Disney plans in your future... minimal of 1 out of every 3 years.
2. Buy if you DESIRE to stay on Disney property.
3. Buy if you can afford it.
4. Buy if you stay in moderates and upscaled resorts especially if you love 1BR/2 BR/villa type units
5. etc.

I realize that no one knows what will happen in the "end" years. What if Disney has not continued to build DVC resorts which would mean the majority of ownership will be expiring at the same time... it could cause panic to set in amongst the owners... or what if Disney changes the program (requiring us to stay at home resort, etc.), and other things. But I see DVC now with years in between those times. How many years? With 34 left... I'm thinking MAYBE the last 10-5 years might be a little different... and under 5 years for sure will require specific analysis for those ending years. To me, that easily give me 24 years to run as hard as I can with the given program!

Sure even those years will carry a risk...
I listed many on an earlier post...
but we all know... spending money for advance use... has risk! Cars, homes, prepaid anything. Because I'm not saying "buy" because it is a good INVESTMENT... I am saying "buy" because it is a good VALUE. A way to save money on future vacations. NOT a way to make money! So I see it to be a good VALUE for the next 24 years.

So what if it goes up in price? GREAT!
and what if it goes down in price? even in your examples in 10 yrs $98 to $70... that's $28/10 yrs... cost to me $2.80 per year! or even if it goes to $0 at 10 years out - cost to me $4.08/year... BIG DEAL!!! I can give away the last 10 years for MF!

Our real watchful eye... needs to be on the MF. Sure older resorts require more maintenance... I'm hoping DVC plans appropriately for that. Also, I'm hoping that Disney will keep building DVC's in a limited fashion... that is good for us... opens trade opportunities... keeps them interested in keeping happy members... so they can sell DVC to NEW folks!

I do say "sell"...
if going to Disney isn't in your plans anymore. To me renting points is more risk and hassle than I would want to handle... proud of those people that can and do... because it did get me hooked!

I can understand the impulse to sell at this price point... if you bought low. That's what you are trained to do... buy low... sell high. BUT, that will now put you back in the rental market. Maybe you folks have enjoyed Disney enough... and that's fine. That's a good reason to sell. I just don't proclaim it to be the BEST time to sell. It ALL depends on USE.

 

[Dean]

Communication may not be my strong suit... but I do feel I'm getting a better grip on your thoughts. While we do agree on some... unfortunately, I don't think we agree on the peak theory. I believe you are saying "sell" and I am saying "buy".

No problem. But why buy a 2042 high demand resort when you can buy a 2057 one other than if you want one resort most all the time for a high demand option?

 

[jade1]

No problem. But why buy a 2042 high demand resort when you can buy a 2057 one other than if you want one resort most all the time for a high demand option?

You answered your own question with the "other than"-many folks want the high demand option which is why some 2042 resorts are selling for so much. Also 10 years from now you can sell the high demand 2042 resort and buy a new 2067 resort if its one you like (and they keep building).

 

[Dean]

You answered your own question with the "other than"-many folks want the high demand option which is why some 2042 resorts are selling for so much. Also 10 years from now you can sell the high demand 2042 resort and buy a new 2067 resort if its one you like (and they keep building).

Not really. I simply acknowledged there would be a small percentage of people who wanted a very difficult option at a specific resort essentially each and every time. It think that is a fairly small percentage of owners even at the smaller 3 resorts on property. But that's why one needs to weigh all the options. I think SSR is not a worthwhile choice for many people simply for the extra time but the additional options and value that AKV give tips the scale in that direction. But SSR at $75 per point may be a better value than BCV at $95 per point. Even if you get shut out occasionally, you can make it work most of the time.

And I think the decision to buy or not is much different than whether to sell or keep if you already own it. I've been a big proponent of buy where you want to stay but I think that scale is tipping a different direction for many potential owners.

 

[disney dumbo]

No problem. But why buy a 2042 high demand resort when you can buy a 2057 one other than if you want one resort most all the time for a high demand option?

Hey Dean... That is another tough question!!!

$100/34 = $2.94 $100/50 = $2.00

Definitely a personal opinion... but for my travel... I'd pay .94/pt to get 1st option at the 11 month window at the resort where I want to stay. I don't have enough experience to know how well you can book at the 7 month window. Our travel is general pretty well set... and at pretty popular times. I can see myself getting to the point where it doesn't matter where I stay... because of soooo many good flavors... but I really prefer to get the most control so my vacation can be exactly like I want it!

"I've been a big proponent of buy where you want to stay but I think that scale is tipping a different direction for many potential owners."

So, I can agree with your above statement!

"But SSR at $75 per point may be a better value than BCV at $95 per point. Even if you get shut out occasionally, you can make it work most of the time."

And this above statement too!!!

Yikes... agreeing twice... it's late... maybe I'll feel differently in the morning!

 

[Dean]

Hey Dean... That is another tough question!!!

$100/34 = $2.94 $100/50 = $2.00

Definitely a personal opinion... but for my travel... I'd pay .94/pt to get 1st option at the 11 month window at the resort where I want to stay. I don't have enough experience to know how well you can book at the 7 month window. Our travel is general pretty well set... and at pretty popular times. I can see myself getting to the point where it doesn't matter where I stay... because of soooo many good flavors... but I really prefer to get the most control so my vacation can be exactly like I want it!

That assumes that the dues are the same for all components to use your numbers and also assumes you keep if for the entire length of each contract. And it ignores the future value of the given resort/contract. But like all DVC purchase decisions, the exact circumstances will dictate whether a given purchase is a reasonable choice or not. One person may get great value out of BCV or BWV in the $90's and the next may not get good value out of AKV at $50 per point depending on how they use their points.

 

[disney dumbo]

My Wife bought the property in Williamsburg specifically to trade into DVC or Marriot, as it trades in II. We purchased it resale on ebay for $599 (plus closing costs of $375), it gives us just enought points to get a red 2 bedroom deposit to II every other year. My 2 year mainteance total is approx. $600, but it also includes II membership, which is $100/yr, so my cost is really $400. While I rarely see a 2 bedroom DVC, 1 bedrooms are somewhat common, so for $400 I get trade into DVC every two years. If I owned DVC, how many points would that get me? About 80? For a 1 bedroom in May when I go it would be 250 DVC points or around $1250 maintenance. That is what I mean when I say that DVC is expensive.
Joe

Now we are REALLY talking! What a smart move! I'd like to know more about this. I have previously done searches in this area... but it sounded like availablity was very limited... and difficult to get Disney. That you had to be extremely flexible... and unfortunately, can't do that - yet! Is that true?

How far or close to travel dates can you grab these Disney units?

What type of II ownership do you have to buy?

I agree DVC is expensive... but regular Disney reservations without DVC is outrageously expensive!!!

Thanks for your reply!

 

[Dean]

Now we are REALLY talking! What a smart move! I'd like to know more about this. I have previously done searches in this area... but it sounded like availablity was very limited... and difficult to get Disney. That you had to be extremely flexible... and unfortunately, can't do that - yet! Is that true?

How far or close to travel dates can you grab these Disney units?

What type of II ownership do you have to buy?

I agree DVC is expensive... but regular Disney reservations without DVC is outrageously expensive!!!

Thanks for your reply!

You need a decent rated II resort, preferably a 1 BR or larger or a lockoff. Some of the points systems work well for this also. I've traded in a number of times and plan most of my future trips in this manner. I had a 1 BR in Jan at OKW, Sept at BWV and a 2 BR at SSR in Dec in 2006. But it assumes you can make do without a 2 BR and you can travel somewhat off season for most trips. As a member, you can still get most perks while staying on an exchange. Part of my stays have been with bonus weeks.

One also needs to plan a full 11-12 months or more in advance and be willing to give the process some time. It does become questionable in value when looking at the studios because you have the same exchange fee and extra $95 DVC fee when you exchange in plus your II dues and maint fees on the resorts you own.

 

[disney dumbo]

That assumes that the dues are the same for all components

Well, I probably would pay the difference in dues too... within reason.

also assumes you keep if for the entire length of each contract. And it ignores the future value of the given resort/contract.

Don't make me go through my "selling" thoughts again!

But like all DVC purchase decisions, the exact circumstances will dictate whether a given purchase is a reasonable choice or not. One person may get great value out of BCV or BWV in the $90's and the next may not get good value out of AKV at $50 per point depending on how they use their points.

AGREE AGAIN!!!

 

[Dean]

AGREE AGAIN!!!

Quit that or you'll get on the DIS naughty list, LOL.

 

[disney dumbo]

Everyone is right - no one is wrong... we can all be happy

Hey Chris... just wanted to say... I admire your spirit of DVC family togetherness!

It is very hard to assess the future of DVC. Its been around roughly 15 years. Trying to determine the value of something twice as far in the future as its existed gives you a 0% probability of being accurate.

And I do agree with your above comment.

Gosh, all this agreeing... must be celebrating... it's Friday!

 

[disney dumbo]

Quit that or you'll get on the DIS naughty list, LOL.