Where do you think DVC resale prices are headed?

[sethschroeder]

Without a vaccine I doubt it'll be that fast, that's about right with a good vaccine available starting by the first of 2021. Testing won't help that much given the infectivity. With no workable vaccine it's likely that over half the world's population will eventually be infected, more for industrialized nations.

I give it til next summer before people are pushing the envelope further and willing to be more "risky" on their own. There could be no vaccine at all and I am sticking with 2022 as either having real solutions that are workable or people pushing forward.

As far as testing its getting better daily and there are more options available for contact tracing as well since phone apps and Apple/Google have started to implement possible solutions and put it in the dev tools.

Masks still possible in 2022? Sure I still think there will be some protections in place. You will see more well informed and original cautious individuals choosing to move forward and just taking precautions by the 24 months mark.

Anyways I think all of this is why we still will see a dip in resale values but could start to rebound any losses by end of next year as people look to 2022 a their first major trip since COVID started, plus Disney likely has some very extended 50th plans in my opinion.

 

[Dean]

I think distance definitely hurts AKV, but overall I find it a more deluxe resort than BCV and BWV (I love those resorts personally but only because of the location). I think Poly/BLT/AKV are on par with each other resort wise with two of them being monorail resorts which outweighs the animals in the savanna.

Price for similar type rooms is likely the best measure of demand. Historically Disney themselves and the Unofficial Guide has seen WL & AKL as of a lower group than the others mentioned on the hotel side. At one time the Unofficial Guide specifically made the statement that AK and WL were less Deluxe though they later removed that wording. If you go back early on with DVC the put WL and I believe AKL in a separate and lower category than the other deluxe's.

 

[Dean]

I give it til next summer before people are pushing the envelope further and willing to be more "risky" on their own. There could be no vaccine at all and I am sticking with 2022 as either having real solutions that are workable or people pushing forward.

As far as testing its getting better daily and there are more options available for contact tracing as well since phone apps and Apple/Google have started to implement possible solutions and put it in the dev tools.

Masks still possible in 2022? Sure I still think there will be some protections in place. You will see more well informed and original cautious individuals choosing to move forward and just taking precautions by the 24 months mark.

Anyways I think all of this is why we still will see a dip in resale values but could start to rebound any losses by end of next year as people look to 2022 a their first major trip since COVID started, plus Disney likely has some very extended 50th plans in my opinion.

It'll likely be this time next year before a vaccine program is in full swing to the masses if everything goes well with the vaccine trials. And your cutoff of 16 months from now is about the best we can hope for if everything goes right with the vaccine. Even that assumes that roughly 80% of the people get vaccinated in that time frame which isn't looking likely. Certainly most will either get infected or vaccinated eventually. Testing is only a drop in the bucket as it is after the fact.

 

[Duckbug.Ducktales]

Price for similar type rooms is likely the best measure of demand. Historically Disney themselves and the Unofficial Guide has seen WL & AKL as of a lower group than the others mentioned on the hotel side. At one time the Unofficial Guide specifically made the statement that AK and WL were less Deluxe though they later removed that wording. If you go back early on with DVC the put WL and I believe AKL in a separate and lower category than the other deluxe's.

I have to say I find this debate on just how "deluxe" a resort is rather silly. These tiers don't really mean much to folks outside this board, everyone values each resort differently for different reasons. Some people might not consider a hotel/resort deluxe without a spa if that's what they value, for instance. Part of the magic is that many of these resorts have many unique offerings, which defies easy categorization.

Also, none of this helps explain the original question of why AKV resale prices have been on the rise.

 

[Eldon32]

If I had a dime for every time someone regretted waiting for the end of the year for prices to go down... It only takes one message from DVC changing benefits or for a vaccine to come etc.

Yeah. Does everyone think there will be a spike in prices during the summer next year if we have a decent vaccine?

 

[Brianstl]

Price for similar type rooms is likely the best measure of demand. Historically Disney themselves and the Unofficial Guide has seen WL & AKL as of a lower group than the others mentioned on the hotel side. At one time the Unofficial Guide specifically made the statement that AK and WL were less Deluxe though they later removed that wording. If you go back early on with DVC the put WL and I believe AKL in a separate and lower category than the other deluxe's.

The price for WL and AK has been less historically because of their location. It has nothing to with any so called level of “deluxe”.

 

[Ruttangel]

So....where do you think the resale price are headed?

A few thoughts here
1. So, Disney is technically raising direct pricing soon if the incentives are less enticing. That should knock on to a small increase in resales, even if there is a lag.

2. Rumours of new ‘blue card benefits’ The great unknown is if Disney can create a perk so good that direct purchasing has greater benefit to resale.
Lets assume 60% of DVC buyers never heard of resale and buy direct.
20% are first time DVC buyers using resale, 20% existing member adding on with resale. How does Disney move that 20% first timer resalers to direct? It’s tried with RIV but it just means RIV resale is damaged and not much else

3. Room pricing, if we see 50% discounts then DVC direct and resale are less attractive and demand for both falls and resale prices drop.

4. Global economy, people are desperate for the nostalgia of happier times, I believe there is pent up demand for WDW and DVC once vaccine available. I also think SOME families have saved substantial sums of money during last 6 months, no commuting, no holidays, no wining and dining etc...If normality is from Oct 2021 then we could see a surge of sales in that quarter.

5. Unsustainable 2042 direct pricing, you would think $235 a point at BCV can’t continue to be higher than a 2060+ property in another 5 years time

6. Second wave of virus, we are already seeing spikes in younger generation, which will pass back on to older generation in next 4-6 weeks, increasing hospitalisations and possible increase in lockdown measures, will the measures be more severe if Florida has a new governor in Jan 2021, could the parks even be closed over Christmas and New Year?

7. ROFR, if staff are furloughed again or waitlists dry up then ROFR stops and bargains like @gisele2 $100 BLT become possible again

In summary I would say it’s a bit of crystal ball exercise. I would guess a 5% reduction on contract values in early 2021 but they may not come with as many loaded/unused points as they do now, so if there is good loaded deal then go for it, especially if 2020 dues are covered.

Happy shopping

 

[Ruttangel]

AKV is the only resort where my 2 children actually burst with joy when I showed them where we were staying.

I think some people on these Boards need to see that magic in Children’s eyes again.

To add: it’s probably the best resort if you are doing a resort only stay

 

[we"reofftoneverland]

AKV is the only resort where my 2 children actually burst with joy when I showed them where we were staying.

I think some people on these Boards need to see that magic in Children’s eyes again.

To add: it’s probably the best resort if you are doing a resort only stay

It is actually my kids’ least favorite resort. One likes BWV, one likes WL, one likes BLT. The one thing they agree on is no more AKL.

 

[Ruttangel]

It is actually my kids’ least favorite resort. One likes BWV, one likes WL, one likes BLT. The one thing they agree on is no more AKL.

Disney is trying to offer something for everyone, they all have drawbacks.
I have no interest in WL, probably because I’m not North American.
BLT just looks like a concrete block and Californian Grill was terrible last time we went.
I do however, love the Boardwalk area and have a contract in ROFR for there.

 

[inkedupmomma]

AKV is the only resort where my 2 children actually burst with joy when I showed them where we were staying.

I think some people on these Boards need to see that magic in Children’s eyes again.

To add: it’s probably the best resort if you are doing a resort only stay

Seriously Where else is anyone staying that has giraffes and zebra right outside? If you cant find magic in that, idk how to help ya.

 

[we"reofftoneverland]

Disney is trying to offer something for everyone, they all have drawbacks.
I have no interest in WL, probably because I’m not North American.
BLT just looks like a concrete block and Californian Grill was terrible last time we went.
I do however, love the Boardwalk area and have a contract in ROFR for there.

I like AKL a lot! I was just saying that unfortunately my kids do not. I do like that there are options for everyone.

 

[Dean]

I have to say I find this debate on just how "deluxe" a resort is rather silly. These tiers don't really mean much to folks outside this board, everyone values each resort differently for different reasons. Some people might not consider a hotel/resort deluxe without a spa if that's what they value, for instance. Part of the magic is that many of these resorts have many unique offerings, which defies easy categorization.

Also, none of this helps explain the original question of why AKV resale prices have been on the rise.

Maybe but the truth is it has lower demand than some of the other locations which was the point of the discussion. I like it also but I like all of the resorts for one reason or another but the way it's viewed in general by the masses will affect it's price long term.

 

[TinkB278]

Some of the prices I see for AKV right now just literally make me LOL. Over $120/point for 200-400 point contracts??

 

[CastAStone]

5. Unsustainable 2042 direct pricing, you would think $235 a point at BCV can’t continue to be higher than a 2060+ property in another 5 years time

I wouldn't call it unsustainable as much as the value of the resort is being consumed more aggressively.

12 months from now Riviera will have consumed 2% of its remaining points, Saratoga Springs 3%, and BCV 5%.

If you discount that for Time Value of Money at 6.5%, it's even starker: Riviera loses 0.25% of it's value, SSR 0.8%, and BCV 2.2% - 9 times as much as Riviera. So the 2042 resorts will continue to uncouple vs the others (as they have been).

 

[sethschroeder]

Also, none of this helps explain the original question of why AKV resale prices have been on the rise.

Someone had outlined there might be less volume of contracts being listed on resale in comparison to other resorts. I haven't tracked any data so I can't say thats accurate or not. AKV was also bought back fairly often on one of the resale sites as well per their blogs.

https://www.dvcresalemarket.com/blog/dvc-right-of-first-refusal-report-rofr-august-20-report/

 

[poofyo101]

I think AKV is on the rise because it was undervalued before. AKV>SSR>OKW IMO.

 

[sethschroeder]

I think AKV is on the rise because it was undervalued before. AKV>SSR>OKW IMO.

OKW $80 -> SSR $95 -> AKV $xxx.xx

Right now we are talking about a $20/point premium for AKV for another $10-$15 you can get in to MK resorts or you actually can save money upfront by getting BWV with a shorter length of time.

 

[TinkB278]

OKW $80 -> SSR $95 -> AKV $xxx.xx

Right now we are talking about a $20/point premium for AKV for another $10-$15 you can get in to MK resorts or you actually can save money upfront by getting BWV with a shorter length of time.

This is what I keep thinking about. For not much more with the way AKV is priced right now I could get an MK resort with a longer contract.

 

[Duckbug.Ducktales]

This is what I keep thinking about. For not much more with the way AKV is priced right now I could get an MK resort with a longer contract.

Exactly! I love the decor at AKV but availability is easier there, I would rather spend a bit more at MK or less at SSR