Where do you think DVC resale prices are headed?

[sethschroeder]

I want to be clear I am not advocating everyone buy BCV. I just think its how you personally look at it and choose to account for things. Someone more worried about immediate costs might see a benefit from a lower contract during the next 21 years.

I also just bought RIV Direct @$155/point and have/will sell my BWV contract because of long term value.

We can only assume when 2042 expiration occurs that resale prices stay steady or have a slight reduction. There is also potential for gridlock headaches after 2042 for resale owners as all you will have left primarily is MK Resorts, AKV, SSR/OKW, Hawaii, VGC which possibly impacts "value" to that owner and resale value.

 

[CastAStone]

and have/will sell my BWV contract because of long term value.

Can you take me through your math on this one? Because I get hung up on it.

It’s $4,207 to book a standard room at BWV with cash in Mid October, or $4,138 at BWI. Assuming a 30% discount, the lower rate is $2,896.

A week is 90 points. So you’re getting $32.18/point in value out of the DVC contract. Take away the $7.37 in dues and it’s $24.81 per point per year of value. When people are looking at that contract with five years left, that’s what they’re going to see - $24 of value per year for 5 years = $120 inherent value. And no they won’t pay $120 for it, but it’s not like it’ll go for $50 either. Why are you convinced it will lose meaningful value?

 

[sethschroeder]

Can you take me through your math on this one? Because I get hung up on it.

It’s $4,207 to book a standard room at BWV with cash in Mid October, or $4,138 at BWI. Assuming a 30% discount, the lower rate is $2,896.

A week is 90 points. So you’re getting $32.18/point in value out of the DVC contract. Take away the $7.37 in dues and it’s $24.81 per point per year of value. When people are looking at that contract with five years left, that’s what they’re going to see - $24 of value per year for 5 years = $120 inherent value. And no they won’t pay $120 for it, but it’s not like it’ll go for $50 either. Why are you convinced it will lose meaningful value?

Sorry you read in to that statement incorrectly. I meant I bought RIV with the intention to sell my BWV because of the 50 year contract and being able to "half" my per point usage cost from just over $6/point to just over $3/point. So the long term cost I have invested in to each point is lower.

I normally do my rough estimate for the final 10 years as follows:

• 50% discount off Rack Rate
• MF cost removal
• 50% off "break even" with discounted cash room

So that would be $4138 (50% discount) gives me $2069. Remove MFs of $663.30 to lower price to $1405.70. Person will want a discount to buy DVC not to just break even so 50% discount will mean they are willing to pay $702.85 each year or $7.94/point.

Now this is a worst case scenario in my mind. In reality I expect hotel rates to vastly outpace MFs increases and this also accounts for a 50% discount on the cash side which we know is unlikely (yes right now there might be one but I am willing to be between 2032-2041 there is might only be a handful of discounts like that). So more like a $10/point value is more accurate. I don't honestly see BWV being impacted really at all until we are inside that 10 year period, I have stated a few times I think most people buying only care about the first 5-10 years and if it saves them money (some people actually likely avoid DVC because of the long term potential risk).

 

[davidl81]

Sorry you read in to that statement incorrectly. I meant I bought RIV with the intention to sell my BWV because of the 50 year contract and being able to "half" my per point usage cost from just over $6/point to just over $3/point. So the long term cost I have invested in to each point is lower.

I normally do my rough estimate for the final 10 years as follows:

• 50% discount off Rack Rate
• MF cost removal
• 50% off "break even" with discounted cash room

So that would be $4138 (50% discount) gives me $2069. Remove MFs of $663.30 to lower price to $1405.70. Person will want a discount to buy DVC not to just break even so 50% discount will mean they are willing to pay $702.85 each year or $7.94/point.

Now this is a worst case scenario in my mind. In reality I expect hotel rates to vastly outpace MFs increases and this also accounts for a 50% discount on the cash side which we know is unlikely (yes right now there might be one but I am willing to be between 2032-2041 there is might only be a handful of discounts like that). So more like a $10/point value is more accurate. I don't honestly see BWV being impacted really at all until we are inside that 10 year period, I have stated a few times I think most people buying only care about the first 5-10 years and if it saves them money (some people actually likely avoid DVC because of the long term potential risk).

I think you may be on to something with the long term risk. Even 5 years from now when there is about 15 years left on the contract some people may prefer that because they know worst case they can’t resell the contract 10 years later, but they only have 5 years of dues left. As opposed to many time shares where even with 20 years left owners usually have to pay a seller to get out of those fees.

 

[ABE4DISNEY]

I don’t understand spending as much as people do on Beach Club.

 

[jlb727]

View attachment 522586

Also, a 5 minute walk to...

 

[lovethesun12]

View attachment 522586

Yeah that's why some of us look at the person who married the Eiffel Tower and don't think "hey that's strange", instead we see opportunity. *Daydreams*....First name: lovethesun12. Last name: SAB. . (unfortunately there was no emoji for a person smooching SAB. There should be).

 

[bookwormde]

8/29 update

number of newly posted resale contracts at about 80% of average

 

[TCRAIG]

I bought BC over BWV for 2 reasons - you need to own at BC if you want to book there and and we prefer Epcot to HS...

 

[bookwormde]

8/30 update

number of newly posted resale contracts at about 140% of average

For the week of 8/17 to 8/23 newly posted resale contracts at about 190% of average

 

[the_grinch]

Hey @bookwormde ,I like your update just hoping you could make a graph of all the data so it would be so much easier to follow thanks for your work

 

[Brian Noble]

just hoping you could make a graph of all the data so it would be so much easier to follow thanks for your work

You know, you could do that yourself if you really wanted it. And, like the OP, you could even then voluntarily share it with others after you did it.

 

[the_grinch]

i would think @bookwormde has all the data points so would be much easier for him to do, i would have to go though the thread a pull out all data point plus i am no good at graphs.also i only asked did not strong arm him at all .or you could do it

 

[we"reofftoneverland]

Also, a 5 minute walk to... View attachment 522681

What about if Disney permanently eliminates park hopping, or limits it? Or if the weird reservation system stays in place? The value of those contracts would go down by quite a bit. Not only do we pop into Epcot for dinner when staying at BCV and BWV, but we like to walk through Epcot to take the monorail to the MK. This new reservation system and lack of park hopping totally changes the dynamic of those resorts for us.

 

[lovethesun12]

What about if Disney permanently eliminates park hopping, or limits it? Or if the weird reservation system stays in place? The value of those contracts would go down by quite a bit. Not only do we pop into Epcot for dinner when staying at BCV and BWV, but we like to walk through Epcot to take the monorail to the MK. This new reservation system and lack of park hopping totally changes the dynamic of those resorts for us.

This is one of the many reasons I highly doubt it's a permanent change. They are doing and enforcing a lot of new things they don't want to right now. I think this is probably one of them.

 

[sethschroeder]

What about if Disney permanently eliminates park hopping, or limits it? Or if the weird reservation system stays in place? The value of those contracts would go down by quite a bit. Not only do we pop into Epcot for dinner when staying at BCV and BWV, but we like to walk through Epcot to take the monorail to the MK. This new reservation system and lack of park hopping totally changes the dynamic of those resorts for us.

Over reaction alert.....

They already have standard park hopper tickets available for sale next year. Parks close to capacity rarely and if it occurs its on 3 different days (Easter, Christmas, New Years Eve) in typically only MK.

On top of that any limitations are likely to be placed on day guests or AP holders visiting for the day. Onsite guests (including DVC which is included partly because we share MFs with cash side) would have priority to any system that was created.

You absolutely will see restrictions on park access through the end of the year if not start of next year. These are a short term impact based on needing to keep total capacity down. This was discussed before Disney even reopened or made any announcement that it was likely parks would open at a small capacity.

People need to stop acting like a short term impact of not getting a reservation because parks are artificially being reduced in capacity is somehow Disneys long term plan. Put it this way if Disney keeps capacity at 25% then expect a 300-500% ticket price increase.

 

[bookwormde]

8/21 update

number of newly posted resale contracts at about 300% of average

 

[bookwormde]

Hey @bookwormde ,I like your update just hoping you could make a graph of all the data so it would be so much easier to follow thanks for your work

creating visuals is not my strong point, but when things show down for me I will give it a shot

are you just looking for the dailies or is there something else?

 

[the_grinch]

just the dailies, i was just curious about it no real hurry or importance, but would appreciate it thank you

 

[Wakey]

I bought BC over BWV for 2 reasons - you need to own at BC if you want to book there and and we prefer Epcot to HS...

Not often in 1 beds, in studios it certainly helps.