Where do you think DVC resale prices are headed?

[mentos]

Agree. Some resorts like AKV and VGC haven’t budged, save for the occasional one off desperate seller.

Man I need to pay better attention when someone is desperately selling a VGC contract, I don't have such good luck finding those listings!

(btw I read all of your posts in Ving Rhames' voice thanks to your avatar)

 

[lovethesun12]

So the borrowing restrictions are set for two years Is this set in stone

Sorry, I said that because my plan was to buy points so I’d go to one resort every two years (two contracts). I said that tongue in cheek as an excuse to buy more points =)

 

[JollyHoliday25]

I wonder if they’ll just magically make the 50% rule go away at some point or if it will be a gradual phase out (like to 75% then done)

 

[Heather07438]

Bummer. Well, that’s good news for our economy...I haven’t seen deals anywhere. In fact, our local real estate market is on fire

People are moving out of the cities in droves since C19 made them question how easily quality of life can be affected in the city. Bidding wars happening much more often. The exurbs are where it's at now.

 

[JollyHoliday25]

People are moving out of the cities in droves since C19 made them question how easily quality of life can be affected in the city. Bidding wars happening much more often. The exurbs are where it's at now.

I’m kind of eyeing a second home in Hawaii, in addition to extra DVC contracts. I think a lot of people pulled listings for homes and are just sitting tight.

 

[bookwormde]

6/13 update

number of newly posted resale contracts at about 30-40% of average*

* Aggregating site is not updating so lower level is directly observed, upper level includes what is would typically only observed through the aggregating site.

 

[CastAStone]

Man I need to pay better attention when someone is desperately selling a VGC contract, I don't have such good luck finding those listings!

(btw I read all of your posts in Ving Rhames' voice thanks to your avatar)

Haha. Bubbles is a Disney all timer. But my favorite Ving Rhames remains this ad.

Yeah that $165 on the ROFR thread for VGC I think made a lot of people jealous.

 

[Lorana]

Haha. Bubbles is a Disney all timer. But my favorite Ving Rhames remains this ad.

Yeah that $165 on the ROFR thread for VGC I think made a lot of people jealous.

Certainly made ME jealous. VGC for $165? Absolutely I'd buy that. $200+? No way.

 

[mentos]

Certainly made ME jealous. VGC for $165? Absolutely I'd buy that. $200+? No way.

I bought $150/pt in 2016 and my biggest regret was not buying more

I can’t even spend $200...$220/pt if I wanted to, I breezed through a few listing sites and they were either devoid of listings or all pending.

Here’s to hoping the new DVC property by DLH moves along quickly.

 

[Lorana]

I bought $150/pt in 2016 and my biggest regret was not buying more

I can’t even spend $200...$220/pt if I wanted to, I breezed through a few listing sites and they were either devoid of listings or all pending.

Here’s to hoping the new DVC property by DLH moves along quickly.

Yes, here's to hoping!
Though if I'm being honest with myself, I really want VGC and not DLH, because it's the theming I love. I own at BRV and AKL, and I want to complete my (Peter Dominck) trifecta. ;-)

 

[bookwormde]

6/14 update

number of newly posted resale contracts at about 60-80% of average*

For the week of 6/8 to 6/14 newly posted resale contracts at about 140-150% of average*

* Aggregating site is not updating so lower level is directly observed, upper level includes what is would typically only observed through the aggregating site.

 

[glamdring269]

What kind of risk are you guys pricing in when deciding whether to buy right now or not? Prices have come down a bit over the last few months but nothing tremendous. I do wonder if those prices will start to fall later on as folks go to the parks and don't like what they find there given the restrictions. This means we might not see a dip until the fall/winter time frame.

We just sold our lone contract and are looking to buy back in. I've made a couple of low ball offers but nothing overly serious at this point. And the main reason for that is out of concern of what the future is going to hold. I'm not worried about whether or not buying now is buying at the bottom. I'm more concerned that some of these changes we perceive to be short term changes end up having longer term impact.

So just out of curiosity, how concerned are you? Has it helped keep you from adding on or buying an initial contract? I know for us the current thinking process is as follows: 1) We got out from under our 2042 contract risk (BRV), 2) We will eventually/hopefully buy back in, 3) Do we buy back in now, given that our next trip will be fall 2021 at earliest, OR do we wait and see knowing that at worst case we will just end up renting for 2021?

How about you?

 

[gisele2]

I am not planning a trip before 2022.

 

[TinkB278]

What kind of risk are you guys pricing in when deciding whether to buy right now or not? Prices have come down a bit over the last few months but nothing tremendous. I do wonder if those prices will start to fall later on as folks go to the parks and don't like what they find there given the restrictions. This means we might not see a dip until the fall/winter time frame.

We just sold our lone contract and are looking to buy back in. I've made a couple of low ball offers but nothing overly serious at this point. And the main reason for that is out of concern of what the future is going to hold. I'm not worried about whether or not buying now is buying at the bottom. I'm more concerned that some of these changes we perceive to be short term changes end up having longer term impact.

So just out of curiosity, how concerned are you? Has it helped keep you from adding on or buying an initial contract? I know for us the current thinking process is as follows: 1) We got out from under our 2042 contract risk (BRV), 2) We will eventually/hopefully buy back in, 3) Do we buy back in now, given that our next trip will be fall 2021 at earliest, OR do we wait and see knowing that at worst case we will just end up renting for 2021?

How about you?

I think your question is really interesting is something I’ve been wondering about so much, especially since I haven’t really noticed anyone sounding concerned in their posts but the risk is all I can think about.

I had been pretty intent on buying my first contract in Feb/Mar right before this whole thing started. For me, I feel like the COVID situation brought to light the fact that there is a big risk in owning DVC. Also, I was really counting on being able to rent out my points for times where we needed a break from Disney and I didn’t want my travel money to have to go towards dues.

I still look at new contracts every day and it takes everything in me not to put offers in, but I think I will be waiting to see how things are when the parks open, and also to see if/when COVID ever goes away. I am hoping to go to Disney fall 2021 and decided I would rather just rent for about 1k more than I would spend in annual dues for the year and not have to take on any risk.
I really hope to buy someday but it just doesn’t feel smart to me right now.

 

[lovethesun12]

I think your question is really interesting is something I’ve been wondering about so much, especially since I haven’t really noticed anyone sounding concerned in their posts but the risk is all I can think about.

I had been pretty intent on buying my first contract in Feb/Mar right before this whole thing started. For me, I feel like the COVID situation brought to light the fact that there is a big risk in owning DVC. Also, I was really counting on being able to rent out my points for times where we needed a break from Disney and I didn’t want my travel money to have to go towards dues.

I still look at new contracts every day and it takes everything in me not to put offers in, but I think I will be waiting to see how things are when the parks open, and also to see if/when COVID ever goes away. I am hoping to go to Disney fall 2021 and decided I would rather just rent for about 1k more than I would spend in annual dues for the year and not have to take on any risk.
I really hope to buy someday but it just doesn’t feel smart to me right now.

This is pretty much where I am. Given the risk, I’d rather wait it out a year and see what happens unless I get an amazing deal ($100 BLT for example). I won’t be renting though, that’s a whole different kind of risk. I’m going to do a cash stay with Disney that I can cancel if necessary and maybe upgrade my room if they offer discounts.

 

[ClapYourHands]

I think your question is really interesting is something I’ve been wondering about so much, especially since I haven’t really noticed anyone sounding concerned in their posts but the risk is all I can think about.

I had been pretty intent on buying my first contract in Feb/Mar right before this whole thing started. For me, I feel like the COVID situation brought to light the fact that there is a big risk in owning DVC. Also, I was really counting on being able to rent out my points for times where we needed a break from Disney and I didn’t want my travel money to have to go towards dues.

I still look at new contracts every day and it takes everything in me not to put offers in, but I think I will be waiting to see how things are when the parks open, and also to see if/when COVID ever goes away. I am hoping to go to Disney fall 2021 and decided I would rather just rent for about 1k more than I would spend in annual dues for the year and not have to take on any risk.
I really hope to buy someday but it just doesn’t feel smart to me right now.

I started looking at DVC a couple of years ago, but DH was adamantly against being locked into any particular vacation destination. I heard a lot about how low some of the contracts were back in 2009, and wish I'd known to buy then. If DVC dips low enough again, I might be tempted.

However, for me the biggest fear factor is the rental situation. I feel like the best thing DVC has going for it is the rental demand that can cover dues so it's not an on-going money suck if I'm not in a position to use my points (or just don't want to). Right now, it looks like things are a bit touch and go with David's, and a lot of people are scared off renting. I'd need to see contracts drop a lot more to compensate for the risk of buying at the moment. I don't foresee DVC becoming one of those timeshares that people will sell for $1 just to get out of the dues, but the pandemic has shown that there's more risk to DVC than there appeared to be a few months ago.

 

[lovethesun12]

I started looking at DVC a couple of years ago, but DH was adamantly against being locked into any particular vacation destination. I heard a lot about how low some of the contracts were back in 2009, and wish I'd known to buy then. If DVC dips low enough again, I might be tempted.

However, for me the biggest fear factor is the rental situation. I feel like the best thing DVC has going for it is the rental demand that can cover dues so it's not an on-going money suck if I'm not in a position to use my points (or just don't want to). Right now, it looks like things are a bit touch and go with David's, and a lot of people are scared off renting. I'd need to see contracts drop a lot more to compensate for the risk of buying at the moment. I don't foresee DVC becoming one of those timeshares that people will sell for $1 just to get out of the dues, but the pandemic has shown that there's more risk to DVC than there appeared to be a few months ago.

This is a good point. How is the rental market going I wonder? I'm sure it's probably slower, but I wonder if there are still a substantial number of rentals happening?

 

[MICKIMINI]

As baby boomers, DH and I don't have the luxury of time to worry about "what ifs" into next year and beyond. We originally bought OKW in 1996 and have enjoyed every single visit and now that our son has a bride, it is even more fun to spend Halloween with them (they live 3000 miles away from us). Additionally, we are adding to our contracts in order to spend a month (or two) at WDW as snowbirds in retirement. We already gift points and plan to upgrade our villas if we have extra points. If a friend wants to rent and I have points that may be an option.

This is a temporary crisis we all have to endure, but it will pass and the fun of Disney will happen again. We have much more fun at Disney then examining our bank statement! There is risk to living and we choose to live the best life we can while we can.

 

[lovethesun12]

As baby boomers, DH and I don't have the luxury of time to worry about "what ifs" into next year and beyond. We originally bought OKW in 1996 and have enjoyed every single visit and now that our son has a bride, it is even more fun to spend Halloween with them (they live 3000 miles away from us). Additionally, we are adding to our contracts in order to spend a month (or two) at WDW as snowbirds in retirement. We already gift points and plan to upgrade our villas if we have extra points. If a friend wants to rent and I have points that may be an option.

This is a temporary crisis we all have to endure, but it will pass and the fun of Disney will happen again. We have much more fun at Disney then examining our bank statement! There is risk to living and we choose to live the best life we can while we can.

I agree! If I owned already I wouldn't be worried either. Most buying shouldn't be worried. But when I purchase DVC I want to be really happy about it, so until I feel comfortable I'm going with the less risky cash stays. I guess it's different for everyone - if I didn't live so far from Florida I'd probably just go ahead now too =)

 

[G.C.]

What kind of risk are you guys pricing in when deciding whether to buy right now or not? Prices have come down a bit over the last few months but nothing tremendous. I do wonder if those prices will start to fall later on as folks go to the parks and don't like what they find there given the restrictions. This means we might not see a dip until the fall/winter time frame.

We just sold our lone contract and are looking to buy back in. I've made a couple of low ball offers but nothing overly serious at this point. And the main reason for that is out of concern of what the future is going to hold. I'm not worried about whether or not buying now is buying at the bottom. I'm more concerned that some of these changes we perceive to be short term changes end up having longer term impact.

So just out of curiosity, how concerned are you? Has it helped keep you from adding on or buying an initial contract? I know for us the current thinking process is as follows: 1) We got out from under our 2042 contract risk (BRV), 2) We will eventually/hopefully buy back in, 3) Do we buy back in now, given that our next trip will be fall 2021 at earliest, OR do we wait and see knowing that at worst case we will just end up renting for 2021?

How about you?

Everyone's situation is different, but here was my thought process-

I saw the risk as low in the long term. I think WDW gets back to "normal enough, eventually." First contract. This was a financial calculation based on initial points cost plus projected dues over the life of contract for each property. Matched the accommodations we wanted and started looking at the one or two properties where the math worked. "Worked" for me meant that over the life of the contract, we could take a trip every other year for price of the Moderates we usually booked. Others' definitions will vary.

If we were going to take the plunge, I wanted to get it done before the ROFR switch flipped back on. I am putting this year's cancelled trip room cost toward the contract and my risk was having four contracts taken and wasting a bunch of time and now we can't take a trip next year because I don't have a contract. When it passes (right?), if the conditions aren't favorable for a 2021 trip, I'll bank and plan on 2022. If we're still not in a good place by then, well, there's some more risk and I've got some explaining to do.

Day 14 into ROFR. I know others are well past 30- hoping that this does not stretch to infinity and beyond... good vibes to all who are waiting.