Where do you think DVC resale prices are headed?

[bookwormde]

Bravo on being the Warren Buffett of DVC contracts. You took a prudent risk and you have been and will continue to reap the rewards for years to come.
Everyone that’s reading your phenomenal deal is saying “I wish I would have done that.” Well this could be your second chance. I’d venture to guess that within the next 2-3 weeks the resale market will grind to a halt and desperation mode may set in for sellers. That’s the time to strike. The list prices might not change greatly as sellers hope to walk away with that value but their willingness to accept a low offer might be more apparent since they don’t know if/when the next offer will come.

Not really in the market now for a variety of reasons. but I guess there might be a point where I would at least consider it. so the buyers side pool could also increase at some point

 

[Brian Noble]

I agree with those above that say ROFR will be non-existent while Disney tries to stay afloat - which would essentially be a "first."

Except that it's not a first. ROFR all but stopped during the Great Recession.

 

[Brianstl]

To answer you question, personally, I think these numbers are optimistic. In the past few days alone, prices have already dropped at some resort to your May or June levels. Listings for VGF in the high 150s, AKL at 105, BCV in the 130s...

I think we're going to see a much steeper drop.

We have not bought into DVC yet, but a good deal would be mighty tempting.

The drop in initial asking price on new listings tells me buyers have really started to dry up. That drop means agents are telling new sellers they have to come in lower to have a chance to attract a buyer.

 

[jlb727]

The people who are most likely to be hurt by this recession are the people who would be least likely to buy DVC anyway: restaurant workers, service workers, gig workers, etc. Retail is going pretty strong. Places like Wal-Mart and Aldi are actually hiring. Most white collar workers will be fine because they can continue working from home, at least for the time being. I don't know what the impact will be on DVC, but it probably won't be quite as large in the short term, and I think the economy will recover quickly in the long term. Once this is over, people are going to want to go out, they are going to want to travel, and they will mostly likely want to be in crowds!

 

[RanDIZ]

Speculation. Disney has a lot of debt service and very little income right now. They actually have to worry about the health of their overall business. Certainly could be wrong, but between the Fox acquisition and almost non existent income right now, they have a lot of debt service and little cash flow. Combine that with how they cannibalized their own business models for Disney Plus (at least in the short term) further reducing income.....

ETA: a lot of other companies in similar sectors are likely to go bankrupt or need a bail out just to stay in business. (Carnival and Royal Caribbean being 2 that come to mind)

I should have said "PROBABLY wont be doing that"

Bankrupt is more like it. Govt bailed out banks and GM in the past because we need those. We don’t need cruise ships. The world will survive without them. Just like this time around, airlines will be top priority for bailouts.

 

[TraderSamWDW]

Bankrupt is more like it. Govt bailed out banks and GM in the past because we need those. We don’t need cruise ships. The world will survive without them. Just like this time around, airlines will be top priority for bailouts.

we didn't NEED GM. There were other car manufacturers., you would have had no issue getting a car. And GM (and the banks) did it to themselves. the bailouts of 2008 were all to companies that did it to themselves. That's not really the case here. Guess we need the banks
We do not NEED GM.

 

[RanDIZ]

we didn't NEED GM. There were other car manufacturers., you would have had no issue getting a car. And GM (and the banks) did it to themselves. the bailouts of 2008 were all to companies that did it to themselves. That's not really the case here. Guess we need the banks
We do not NEED GM.

True. There are other car mfg that would have been sufficient enough. But honestly, most of these companies are to blame. We just had the longest bull market in history with the economy thriving. Yet instead of companies using fiscal responsibility and stashing cash for emergencies like this, they paid themselves and the board millions in salaries.

 

[Deploraboo]

Why would anyone in their right mind right now purchase a fractional ownership interest in a resort that is indefinitely closed?

 

[HelsBels16]

...but I think they will come back in time. In it for the long haul hopefully!

 

[TraderSamWDW]

True. There are other car mfg that would have been sufficient enough. But honestly, most of these companies are to blame. We just had the longest bull market in history with the economy thriving. Yet instead of companies using fiscal responsibility and stashing cash for emergencies like this, they paid themselves and the board millions in salaries.

Valid argument. Debatable to a degree but very valid. 2008 it wasn't even debatable... that was pure greed. This was greed and an external factor. It set a dangerous precedent

 

[Deploraboo]

But 2008 was arguably if not factually more remediable than this situation.

 

[CarolMN]

we didn't NEED GM. There were other car manufacturers., you would have had no issue getting a car. And GM (and the banks) did it to themselves. the bailouts of 2008 were all to companies that did it to themselves. That's not really the case here. Guess we need the banks
We do not NEED GM.

True. There are other car mfg that would have been sufficient enough. But honestly, most of these companies are to blame. We just had the longest bull market in history with the economy thriving. Yet instead of companies using fiscal responsibility and stashing cash for emergencies like this, they paid themselves and the board millions in salaries.

We may not NEED GM, but it employs thousands. Can't help but wonder how long it would have taken to recover if all of those people couldn't find comparable jobs and NEEDED benefits to feed & shelter their families. (I would have liked to see more restrictions on how the bailout moneys could be used - like no executive bonuses or stock buybacks, but have no quarrel with the concept).

 

[Deploraboo]

Taking an equity position in DIS TO PREVENT bK is one thing, but if the government is subsidizing buybacks of DVC points, that’s crazy town.

 

[Brianstl]

But 2008 was arguably if not factually more remediable than this situation.

2008 was a legitimate economic crisis with a ton of bad paper. This is a public health crisis that is hurting the the economy. There aren’t underlying economic issues that have to be dealt with this. Most sections of the economy should recover quickly when the health crisis passes.

Now I don’t think travel and tourism will necessarily be one of them. I think this crisis will make many countries reconsider the relatively free flow of massive amounts of people across the globe.

 

[Brianstl]

we didn't NEED GM. There were other car manufacturers., you would have had no issue getting a car. And GM (and the banks) did it to themselves. the bailouts of 2008 were all to companies that did it to themselves. That's not really the case here. Guess we need the banks
We do not NEED GM.

If anything, this crisis should teach us that we need as much manufacturing in this country as possible. It is a national health and national security necessity.

 

[BillPA]

With everything going down the drain, how soon will Disney raise the ticket prices?

 

[Deploraboo]

There aren’t underlying economic issues? Sorry but the stock market is down 30+ %, UE claims this week or next will dwarf all previous weekly records, GDP estimated to go to Great Depression levels, Hotel, Tourism and Aircraft and Airlines are heading toward BK, municipal debt facing defaults due to lack of revenue, 10 year Treasury had lowest rate ever recorded, I could go on and on here...

 

[TraderSamWDW]

If anything, this crisis should teach us that we need as much manufacturing in this country as possible. It is a national health and national security necessity.

spot on!

 

[TraderSamWDW]

We may not NEED GM, but it employs thousands. Can't help but wonder how long it would have taken to recover if all of those people couldn't find comparable jobs and NEEDED benefits to feed & shelter their families. (I would have liked to see more restrictions on how the bailout moneys could be used - like no executive bonuses or stock buybacks, but have no quarrel with the concept).

I agree, my point was you can not say dont bail out the cruise lines because we dont need them. We have precedent, and they employ a lot people too.
I was not going down the path of should we have or not. Just saying we did, and they mismanaged themselves. The cruise lines did not do that, at least not to the same degree, so its hard to say we should not bail them out if they need it.

 

[Brianstl]

There aren’t underlying economic issues? Sorry but the stock market is down 30+ %, UE claims this week or next will dwarf all previous weekly records, GDP estimated to go to Great Depression levels, Hotel, Tourism and Aircraft and Airlines are heading toward BK, municipal debt facing defaults due to lack of revenue, 10 year Treasury had lowest rate ever recorded, I could go on and on here...

Underlying economic issues are not the reason we are having these problems. We are having these problems because a public health issue has shut down so much commerce. There are not 100’s of millions of bad loans that have to be worked through like in 2008.