Where do you think DVC resale prices are headed?

[lovethesun12]

Yes I am thinking that most of the people buying now were already in the market before Covid or are existing members adding on or swapping out

Maybe a few newly disgruntled renters as well.... =)

 

[bookwormde]

Maybe a few newly disgruntled renters as well.... =)

Yes I think that is and will be a significant factor going forward

 

[Brianstl]

Maybe a few newly disgruntled renters as well.... =)

My guess is as many (if not more) renters will be completely turned off by anything DVC now as that would be interested in buying DVC. Our end of September rental was originally supposed to be the test ride before we bought. Now while I still want to buy at the right price, my wife doesn’t because of all of the uncertainty involved. I’m hoping the trip will help nudge her into at least a more neutral position, but who knows at this point how that will actually play out.

 

[Prince John Robin Hood]

It's incredibly difficult to predict what will happen as there are so many moving parts. An effective treatment could be found tomorrow or we could be dealing with covid for years.
Anyone buying should be doing it with a long term view and should be willing to accept that prices could go significantly lower than what they buy in at.
I'm not going to try and guess the market bottom. I'll buy when I feel that the price is simply too good to pass on.

 

[lovethesun12]

My guess is as many (if not more) renters will be completely turned off by anything DVC now as that would be interested in buying DVC. Our end of September rental was originally supposed to be the test ride before we bought. Now while I still want to buy at the right price, my wife doesn’t because of all of the uncertainty involved. I’m hoping the trip will help nudge her into at least a more neutral position, but who knows at this point how that will actually play out.

I’m not sure. I sort of think disgruntled renters like me are part of the reason smaller contracts are flying off the shelves - a large group of people who don’t want to rent 11 months out anymore but want a trip booked.

We want to book our next trip, which we usually do August/Sept. If I book through renting, it will cost $4900 but I never want to take that risk again.

If I book cash, it’s $6900 (I do realize this will probably be discounted but it will still be a significant amount for the stay). Now cash *is* much less risk. But do I really want to pay $6900 (or the amount with discount) for a cash stay when I could buy the 100 points for under $15000 and have trips(100 points would be part of our trip - would have to add on) for 45 more years? I could wait for prices to drop, but really in the end if I pay cash for the next trip the savings won’t be worth it. Or I can buy direct (if I can’t find a good contract) and get savings on tickets/dining/merchandise.

If our trip can’t go ahead next year, I can also bank points and/or reschedule.

 

[Heather07438]

I think it’s totally worth it to pay a little extra for the right contract (home resort, size, and UY). I almost compromised and bought an Aug UY when I really wanted an Oct UY, because I was just impatient. But I’m so glad I ended up waiting for the perfect contract. The two months make a big difference for the when we usually visit!

That makes sense. If you really look at it, what's an extra $5pp? $500 on a 100pt contract and that could possibly make planning trips so much easier for the next 20, 30 or 40 yrs. $500/30 yrs is less than $20/yr. That not alot of money for the peace of mind it can offer.

 

[Hoosier John]

Why are renters disgruntled? Did they not either get their money back, or get a replacement reservation booked in its place?

We rented a stay out, and it has been re-booked for a third time now. First was a hurricane threatening (my family just used the booking), second was medical illness, and now we have it booked for them next May. Quite a bit of extra work on our part, but I feel it was only fair.

 

[lovethesun12]

Why are renters disgruntled? Did they not either get their money back, or get a replacement reservation booked in its place?

We rented a stay out, and it has been re-booked for a third time now. First was a hurricane threatening (my family just used the booking), second was medical illness, and now we have it booked for them next May. Quite a bit of extra work on our part, but I feel it was only fair.

Remember that on this board, you only hear experiences from approved sites.

 

[Hoosier John]

Remember that on this board, you only hear experiences from approved sites.

Oh, that's right, I didn't even think about going through rental companies. That's probably the majority of rentals. So I guess some families lost money going this route?

We just post an ad here on DISboards and wait for an interested family. Has worked pretty well for us, but we don't rent a lot.

 

[lovethesun12]

Oh, that's right, I didn't even think about going through rental companies. That's probably the majority of rentals. So I guess some families lost money going this route?

We just post an ad here on DISboards and wait for an interested family. Has worked pretty well for us, but we don't rent a lot.

Yes, it seems to have worked for some renters with owners who were willing/able to reschedule

Renting was nice in the past but many paid a hefty amount to realize the risk of not having control over your own reservation.

 

[bookwormde]

6/27 update

number of newly posted resale contracts at about 120-130% of average*

* Aggregating site is not updating so lower level is directly observed, upper level includes what is would typically only observed through the aggregating site.

 

[bookwormde]

6/28 update

number of newly posted resale contracts at about 100-120% of average*

For the week of 6/22 to 6/28 newly posted resale contracts at about 210-220% of average*

* Aggregating site is not updating so lower level is directly observed, upper level includes what is would typically only observed through the aggregating site.

 

[iflyjetzzz]

My guess is as many (if not more) renters will be completely turned off by anything DVC now as that would be interested in buying DVC. Our end of September rental was originally supposed to be the test ride before we bought. Now while I still want to buy at the right price, my wife doesn’t because of all of the uncertainty involved. I’m hoping the trip will help nudge her into at least a more neutral position, but who knows at this point how that will actually play out.

I'm selling both of our DVC contracts. Just not worth the hassle. Worse yet, DVC are extremely expensive accommodations. I do not see enough of a value to justify the cost of ownership.

 

[CastAStone]

I'm selling both of our DVC contracts. Just not worth the hassle. Worse yet, DVC are extremely expensive accommodations. I do not see enough of a value to justify the cost of ownership.

So, I'm curious, you just bought in a few months ago, right? What part of it are you finding not worth the hassle? As someone looking at buying I'm curious what you found that made you change your mind so quickly.

 

[iflyjetzzz]

So, I'm curious, you just bought in a few months ago, right? What part of it are you finding not worth the hassle? As someone looking at buying I'm curious what you found that made you change your mind so quickly.

My mind didn't change quickly. It took a decent amount of time. A decent amount of wasted time chasing all of this DVC stuff. I've sunk more time into this upcoming trip than any other vacation I've taken. And in the end, it is just not worth the hassle. I have no desire to be tied down to a Disney vacation and all of the requisite planning in the future. I finally understand why so many people hate the mouse.
And that doesn't even account for the costs associated with DVC - it is overpriced.

 

[ldo]

IMHO, buying a smaller (resale) contract is the way to go for people who want to regularly stay at DVC, even EOY. You can control your reservation. I have rebooked about 10 times the past month! It's not perfect and DVC people without tickets and those who might lose points are pretty mad. But, it's so much better than most options! You can also get points transferred into your account from others for bigger trips (granted usually at a rental price) and control/rebook those points as well.

 

[sethschroeder]

I think we will see a dip in pricing more so at the end of the year. I think what might help rebound the market though its people buying their 3rd/4th/5th contract who upgraded their trip in 2021. Might be doing a 2BR with kids instead of the 1BR, might be an extended stay for Friday to following Sunday instead of Saturday to Saturday.

These people now possibly got a taste of something they are willing to buy another contract for since the prices are reduced.

 

[sethschroeder]

I’m not sure. I sort of think disgruntled renters like me are part of the reason smaller contracts are flying off the shelves - a large group of people who don’t want to rent 11 months out anymore but want a trip booked.

We want to book our next trip, which we usually do August/Sept. If I book through renting, it will cost $4900 but I never want to take that risk again.

If I book cash, it’s $6900 (I do realize this will probably be discounted but it will still be a significant amount for the stay). Now cash *is* much less risk. But do I really want to pay $6900 (or the amount with discount) for a cash stay when I could buy the 100 points for under $15000 and have trips(100 points would be part of our trip - would have to add on) for 45 more years? I could wait for prices to drop, but really in the end if I pay cash for the next trip the savings won’t be worth it. Or I can buy direct (if I can’t find a good contract) and get savings on tickets/dining/merchandise.

If our trip can’t go ahead next year, I can also bank points and/or reschedule.

Never even really thought of the renters until this. It makes sense we might actually see an uptick in resale. Everyone I think is forgetting we are about 12-16 months out from the start of the 50th events starting to kick off at WDW.

 

[lovethesun12]

I will just say BCV is actually less than Savannah View at AKV in DVC.

At 7 months out with AKV points?

If you're trying to convince me to buy DVC DARN IT IT'S WORKING!!!!! Do you know how weak my heart is for Disney? LOL

PS - are you in sales? I'll take 1 BCV, 1 AKV and throw in a POLY

Never even really thought of the renters until this. It makes sense we might actually see an uptick in resale. Everyone I think is forgetting we are about 12-16 months out from the start of the 50th events starting to kick off at WDW.

Also, we have you convincing people to buy DVC; maybe that plays a role

 

[holyrita]

Wasn't really sure which of the threads in "Purchasing DVC" to post in, so I picked this one

Out of boredom I've been searching recorded deeds on the Orange County comptroller website and am seeing some outrageous deals. Examples:

$47 per point for AKV
$86 per point for Boardwalk (a 25 point contract no less!)

What's going on here?! I quickly stopped browsing, to stop myself from feeling bad about my own resale contract deal