Where are (or were) the crowds?????

[Wdwfan2016]

They don't have a problem filling rooms. Occupancy rates have stayed the same and even gone up in some cases. It's getting people in the parks that is the current problem.

That is true, however if they were really worried about decreased attendance in the theme parks they would offer better promotions to get people into the parks. I know there is a current ticket promotion, however the savings are not really that significant to make a big difference. Ticket prices will still go up like normal in 2017.

 

[lockedoutlogic]

I unliked this just so I could like it again.

You can't tell me that my 2.5k trip just 5 years ago is now "worth" 4.5k next year. I keep trying to tell myself it is, but it's getting harder.

It's getting to where I need to analyze it like a fund. When you are trying to find the beta of your vacation, you might be in trouble.

That's what I'm talking about...the cumulative increase is off the freaking charts. It's not a matter of "having the money"...it's that you can't internally justify spending so
Much more on it. Nothing has changed...not really since the 90's.

Mine train? Elsa's animatronic awkward boat ride?

I mean...common sense is not that common.

I did some quick (i.e. Not QCed) math the other day when this thread started and getting like $7000 ish for the Xmas week at allstar for 4? Magic "your way"?

I mean...that was $1200-1500 average in the summer (back when summer was still the most crowded overall block) circa 2002...probably $2000 around Christmas then.

That can't be right...

This is not imagined...it is real and it is longterm.

 

[lockedoutlogic]

Not really, Every offer released so far has offered less than what was offered the previous year. Room discounts are only up to 25% at a few resorts compared to 30% last year. They have restricted the resorts more so then before and reduced the number of rooms available at the promotional rates.

Right...because the iger stock grubbing playbook is to try to convince you you're getting something when you're not...first...and don't devuldge plan B.

I think the note here is summer promos released on 12/28. Usually the package prices are set for the first 18 or so month out...they look at it...and leftover inventory promos come out around the 4 month mark. This seems a bit odd...I might be wrong.

 

[lockedoutlogic]

They don't have a problem filling rooms. Occupancy rates have stayed the same and even gone up in some cases. It's getting people in the parks that is the current problem.

Those numbers are highly suspect and heavily weighted towards DVC each year. They don't have to "convince" DVC to book...but the rack inventory? A lot pricier for most of the target demographics.

And the problem with attendance isn't/shouldn't be coming from the 22 or so hotels in reedy creek...it's the 500 outside that should be the problem.

If it's not...they are going to actually bleed revenue even with the lemming incentive program and all HELL is gonna break loose in lower Manhattan

 

[BltAk]

I am not an expert in Disney attendance, but I believe a lot of people are holding off for "Rivers of Light", "Avatar", "Star Wars", and the new "Toy Story Land". I fully expect everything will be back to normal in 2019.

 

[lockedoutlogic]

I am not an expert in Disney attendance, but I believe a lot of people are holding off for "Rivers of Light", "Avatar", "Star Wars", and the new "Toy Story Land". I fully expect everything will be back to normal in 2019.

To be fair...things are still "booming" relatively speaking. The thing here is any slowing during economic boom. That is new territory and a big warning flag.

There are 3 types of disney travelers:
1. The one timers/infrequent. Just that - once upon a time or 5-10+ plus visitors. New rides don't affect them at all...they travel when their schedules dictate or when the money is there. This demo balances out every year.

2. The frequents...DVC, Florida residents, APs, pin freaks, Buffet bookers and gluttons from New Jersey. They...we...talk a big game...but ultimately keep going and alter little on the aggregate. The balance is there.

3. The steady but not frequent. Here's the one where it matters. They typically budget their money and/or time to attend let's say every 3 years on average. You'll recognize them by their "only 823 more days till the WORLD" scrolling taglines in their disboard signatures. Lol...like a chapter in the book of Exodus.

This would matter to them...but when balanced against the other two groups does it move a needle much? 5% at most? Don't know.

 

[Madonna3]

To be fair...things are still "booming" relatively speaking. The thing here is any slowing during economic boom. That is new territory and a big warning flag.

There are 3 types of disney travelers:
1. The one timers/infrequent. Just that - once upon a time or 5-10+ plus visitors. New rides don't affect them at all...they travel when their schedules dictate or when the money is there. This demo balances out every year.

2. The frequents...DVC, Florida residents, APs, pin freaks, Buffet bookers and gluttons from New Jersey. They...we...talk a big game...but ultimately keep going and alter little on the aggregate. The balance is there.

3. The steady but not frequent. Here's the one where it matters. They typically budget their money and/or time to attend let's say every 3 years on average. You'll recognize them by their "only 823 more days till the WORLD" scrolling taglines in their disboard signatures. Lol...like a chapter in the book of Exodus.

This would matter to them...but when balanced against the other two groups does it move a needle much? 5% at most? Don't know.

you made me choke on my apple.

 

[TheMaxRebo]

Like a lot of things in life I am sure it is more than one reason. A few that I think are contributing include:

• Pricing ... Disney has increased pricing enough that it is impacting some people and the tiered pricing (either in actuality or via perception) is pushing people to avoid historically crowded times. I think you saw this with the parties too as people thought they were great due to low crowds then more people come so Disney raises the prices and it seems like crowds were a bit lower this year (price inflection reached)
  
• New lands coming ... Nothing major new this year, Pandora coming next year and then Toy Story Land the Star Wars Experience later - so people that only go every few years are holding off. Also, perception that "DHS is 1/3rd of a park and tons of construction walls" probably contributing too (@BltAk mentioned this)
  
• Just some general negativity this year ... reports of dirty bathrooms and CMs not as "magical", the story of the person cleaning the table with dirty mop, etc. - on top of all the "upcharges" I think had created a negative feeling for some and that a) motivates people to come back less and b) lessens the "word of mouth" to get new people to come
• Expanded hub .... @Accident mentioned this and I think there is some validity to this. The hub was one of the most crowded areas of any of the parks - if it "feels" less crowded that will give the impression that everything must also be less crowded

I am sure there are others too. Will be interesting to see the response of Disney Management and The Street to this as well. Theoretically as long as total revenue is up, it shouldn't matter how many people are in the park - but obviously the lower crowds create the perception that "OMG Disney is in trouble!!!"

 

[lockedoutlogic]

you made me choke on my apple.

I haven't racked up a body count around here in a while...but it has happened before

 

[tstidm1]

I think it's multiple reasons. US economy is good, but look at the British uncertainty with Brexit and Brazil's Economic troubles. On the Domestic front, we had the Orlando shootings in June. I don't think Frozen Ever After and new haven't drawn in the crowds. Maybe, Pandora brings in new people into the parks like UOR had when they got Harry Potter. I'm going to Orlando for Star Wars Celebration in April and leaning towards no WDW that time of year. Partly because of Costs, Crowds and only a few new things.

 

[Disneychick75]

That's what I'm talking about...the cumulative increase is off the freaking charts. It's not a matter of "having the money"...it's that you can't internally justify spending so
Much more on it. Nothing has changed...not really since the 90's.

Mine train? Elsa's animatronic awkward boat ride?

I mean...common sense is not that common.

I did some quick (i.e. Not QCed) math the other day when this thread started and getting like $7000 ish for the Xmas week at allstar for 4? Magic "your way"?

I mean...that was $1200-1500 average in the summer (back when summer was still the most crowded overall block) circa 2002...probably $2000 around Christmas then.

That can't be right...

This is not imagined...it is real and it is longterm.

$7000 for a glorified Motel 6 - what the heck are they pumping through the HVAC at Disney headquarters?

Speaking of crowds, the picture below is a friend's from this morning taken at Toy Story Mania- the busiest week of the year?

 

[lockedoutlogic]

I think it's multiple reasons. US economy is good, but look at the British uncertainty with Brexit and Brazil's Economic troubles. On the Domestic front, we had the Orlando shootings in June. I don't think Frozen Ever After and new haven't drawn in the crowds. Maybe, Pandora brings in new people into the parks like UOR had when they got Harry Potter. I'm going to Orlando for Star Wars Celebration in April and leaning towards no WDW that time of year. Partly because of Costs, Crowds and only a few new things.

You bring up a lot of good points...

I think the bump at AK will be slight because nobody gives a rats hoot about avatar as compared to Harry Potter with large pop culture following. If Star Wars is done right you won't be able to get near that place, however.

Elsa's boat was a filler...the product is now filler and the ride is the definition of "filler"...they will regret that as a waste of money and space soon. It will be the Ariel ride before long.

The British situation hurts...but those that can afford 21 day overseas "holidays" aren't gonna dry up that much yet.

Brazil is small, but solid chunk. They're are collapsing their country and economy based on cheap, environmentally unfriendly products and wreckless lack of understanding of credit and currency. That IS gonna collapse and dry up completely. We are not far from a junta and a new hardline socialist type reformation there...the tour flags are gonna be confiscated and recycled to make blankets sooner than later.

 

[lockedoutlogic]

$7000 for a glorified Motel 6 - what the heck are they pumping through the HVAC at Disney headquarters?

Speaking of crowds, the picture below is a friend's from this morning taken at Toy Story Mania- the busiest week of the year?


View attachment 211926

My trained eyes tell me that it's not even close to crowded.

I'll be interested to see if they close Saturday at MK...EPCOT likey won't come close. But many will be flying out/heading home due to school calendars that day...interesting.

 

[Madonna3]

$7000 for a glorified Motel 6 - what the heck are they pumping through the HVAC at Disney headquarters?

Speaking of crowds, the picture below is a friend's from this morning taken at Toy Story Mania- the busiest week of the year?


View attachment 211926

that doesn't tell us what the wait time is/was.

 

[Madonna3]

My trained eyes tell me that it's not even close to crowded.

I'll be interested to see if they close Saturday at MK...EPCOT likey won't come close. But many will be flying out/heading home due to school calendars that day...interesting.

I actually looked up room availability for New Years Eve because I am getting brave.

 

[lockedoutlogic]

I actually looked up room availability for New Years Eve because I am getting brave.

I'm sure booked...remember that on property rooms are a small percentage of daily visitors.

 

[lockedoutlogic]

I actually looked up room availability for New Years Eve because I am getting brave.

Oh...it's busy...

But to be fair the damn thing is always 90 minutes and so little is left in that park that there isn't anywhere to go. They have literally ZERO kid attractions in a Disney park...midway is the closest thing.

 

[Manda]

Our schools weren't even on break yet last week, so I guess I wouldn't have expected it to be terribly busy yet.

 

[mcjaco]

Don't look now...but I could interpret what you're saying as:

"Disney's lack of investment to address rising attendance and pricing/financial policies have forced us to alter the way we enjoy our trips and made choices/limits that take some of the fun out of the process of vacation/recreation"

Ehh??

No, you're twisting what I said.

1) I don't like the FP+ system because it handcuffs those of us that stay off property. I can still deal with it. I still got FP 30 days out for everything we knew my kids would want to go on. Good enough for me.
2) The Dining....I cannot plan what or where I want to eat 48 hours in advance, let alone 180 days. I miss being able to walk up and have a slight shot at getting a table anyway. Can't do that anymore, BUT we still ate well, and at places the entire family loved.

I could got every year if I wanted too. I choose not, because I like being married. So we compromise. One year we go where she wants, then it's back to Disney on the off year. It hasn't changed our travel plans one bit. We still make sure we're financially set before we book anything. Anywhere.

 

[lockedoutlogic]

Our schools weren't even on break yet last week, so I guess I wouldn't have expected it to be terribly busy yet.

We're talking park capacity closings Saturday 12/24 and Sunday 12/25...everybody in the universe was on break.