When Will the US Reach 100,000 COVID deaths?

[chicagoshannon]

Never and never would have either.

 

[bookwormde]

South Korea:
Population: 51.64 Million
Covid19 Tests: 534,552
% of population tested: 10.4

US
Population: 330 Million
Covid19 Tests: 3,174,701
# of population tested: 9.6

Pretty much equal, especially if you account that (I think) S. Korea started earlier, so they've had more time to do testing.

US and Korea have had the exact same amount of time since first case, they just started high levels of testing earlier

Death rates per 1 million US 84 S, Korea 4

 

[JimMIA]

The US is a tiny bit more complicated than South Korea.

We are vastly larger geographically, very spread out, with 50 state governments and thousands of local governments. We are also very diverse.

Korea is very homogeneous, and has roughly the same land area as the state of Indiana.

Also, in South Korea the first outbreak and a huge percentage of their early cases were within one very tightly-isolated religious community in Daegu. For the first couple of weeks, ALL of the Korean cases were in that community. That is nothing like the US.

There are always numbers to play with, but mere availability doesn't mean the stats correlate at all.

 

[chicagodisneyfan]

We already hit 100,000 deaths this year. For Cancer. In February.

Don't see everyone losing their minds and demanding we stop people from doing anything that causes that.

Um because cancer isn't contagious?
You want to smoke/drink/be fat or anything else that increases your personal cancer rate - go right ahead. You have the freedom!

Covid19 transmission is nothing like cancer.

 

[bookwormde]

The US is a tiny bit more complicated than South Korea.

We are vastly larger geographically, very spread out, with 50 state governments and thousands of local governments. We are also very diverse.

Korea is very homogeneous, and has roughly the same land area as the state of Indiana.

Also, in South Korea the first outbreak and a huge percentage of their early cases were within one very tightly-isolated religious community in Daegu. For the first couple of weeks, ALL of the Korean cases were in that community. That is nothing like the US.

There are always numbers to play with, but mere availability doesn't mean the stats correlate at all.

Agreed testing rate roll out is only one of many factors, cultural compliance is another factor as is population density

 

[shelemm]

Hey Jim, is that a NEWS FLASH post? "This just in, ladies and gentlemen, Korea is smaller than the US, details at 11." ;-)

Yeah, I had to crack out my map, and now i see that the US is indeed larger than Korea, but thanks for confirming.

Don't we, in theory, also have more resources? Greater wealth? Although Korea has great wifi and transportation system, they also have a ton of people selling food from pushcarts in sprawling markets. The modern and the traditional are tightly juxtaposed.

It seems to me that you are listing excuses, but the reality is that we didn't really exhibit the will to test and trace. Pick a spot, any spot. Korea was not admonishing Jeollanam-do, that they would have to take care of it themselves.

Ok, I will accept your excuses. I guess that's what it all comes down to now. The dog ate my homework.

"US and Korea have had the exact same amount of time since first case, they just started high levels of testing earlier"

Bingo!

 

[Searc]

South Korea:
Population: 51.64 Million
Covid19 Tests: 534,552
% of population tested: 10.4

US
Population: 330 Million
Covid19 Tests: 3,174,701
# of population tested: 9.6

Pretty much equal, especially if you account that (I think) S. Korea started earlier, so they've had more time to do testing.

South Korea got their first positive case the same day the US did. They have a much better handle on it than the US does.

 

[shelemm]

Agreed testing rate roll out is only one of many factors, cultural compliance is another factor

By cultural compliance, do you mean that there were people in NYC (or name another place) who refused to get tested?

 

[bookwormde]

By cultural compliance, do you mean that there were people in NYC (or name another place) who refused to get tested?

I was thinking more in terms of social distancing and other mitigation

 

[sam_gordon]

US and Korea have had the exact same amount of time since first case, they just started high levels of testing earlier

Death rates per 1 million US 84 S, Korea 4

South Korea got their first positive case the same day the US did. They have a much better handle on it than the US does.

I stand corrected.

BUT, I still don't see how someone can point to S. Korea as doing "extensive" testing when the US is virtually identical in number of tests per population.

 

[shelemm]

Maybe it has something to do with strategy. Testing and tracing early.

Above, bookwormde also mentions social distancing. Sounds to me like maybe they did that sooner and complied better.

 

[JimMIA]

Hey Jim, is that a NEWS FLASH post? "This just in, ladies and gentlemen, Korea is smaller than the US, details at 11." ;-)

It might have been for some.

Not for me; I lived in Japan as an Army brat twice and my dad served twice in Korea -- once during the war and once later.

 

[JimMIA]

I was thinking more in terms of social distancing and other mitigation

Right. Mitigation of communicable diseases is a cultural norm throughout Asia and has been for generations. It is very common -- long before covid-19 -- to see a large percentage of people in crowded places like subways and train stations wearing face masks.

 

[jalapeno_pretzel]

I stand corrected.

BUT, I still don't see how someone can point to S. Korea as doing "extensive" testing when the US is virtually identical in number of tests per population.

I think they are probably referring to the fact that S. Korea did a much more rapid and extensive roll-out of testing early on in their outbreak - most anyone who wanted one could get a test from what I understand. Versus here in the US we did not roll out the more extensive testing rapidly. Lots of people with symptoms were unable to get tests because they didn't have a known link to someone who had it. So now we have caught up and are about equal rates of testing, but the S. Korea testing ramp occurred much earlier in the outbreak, allowing them to more effectively contain it.

 

[RamblingMad]

I think they are probably referring to the fact that S. Korea did a much more rapid and extensive roll-out of testing early on in their outbreak - most anyone who wanted one could get a test from what I understand. Versus here in the US we did not roll out the more extensive testing rapidly. Lots of people with symptoms were unable to get tests because they didn't have a known link to someone who had it. So now we have caught up and are about equal rates of testing, but the S. Korea testing ramp occurred much earlier in the outbreak, allowing them to more effectively contain it.

We haven’t caught up. A large portion of the testing here has been done in NY. Other states significantly lag behind S Korea when looking at number of tests per million population.

 

[chicagodisneyfan]

Never and never would have either.

Source?
You posted in March of things that you "knew" - that did not turn out to be true.
Can you honestly think without current measures in place we would not have hit 100,000 deaths?
We are close to 30k with most of the country shut down.

 

[Cannot_Wait_4Disney]

Never and never would have either.

A gratuitous assertion which can logically be equally gratuitously denied or affirmed depending upon the whims of the person responding.

 

[godisney14]

So now we have caught up and are about equal rates of testing, but the S. Korea testing ramp occurred much earlier in the outbreak, allowing them to more effectively contain it.

What in the world are you talking about?

 

[jalapeno_pretzel]

What in the world are you talking about?

As someone pointed out, S. Korea's testing rate is 10.4K per million people, and ours is 9.8K per million people, so we are "nearly" caught up to their amount of testing.

So sam gorden asked how can anyone say we haven't tested as extensively as S. Korea?

And the answer is, yes, per capita we are getting close(r) to their amount of tests. However, they pushed testing very early in the process compared to the USA, which explains why they were able to limit the spread better than we have.

 

[DLgal]

The largest difference between almost every Asian country (in this case, South Korea) and the USA is the cultural belief that the WHOLE is more important than the SELF. Asians generally comply with directives that will benefit the society as a whole without regard to their personal feelings of liberty/independence. They work towards societal goals rather than what is good for themselves.

This is opposite to how most Americans behave. It's a cultural difference that will make extensive testing/tracing near impossible to accomplish here. Not to mention all the people ignoring stay at home orders.