When will Riviera resales be available

[DVCsince2002]

I have been thinking about availability and pricing of Riviera resale contracts. If Riviera takes more than 2 years than CCV to sell out, when is it realistic to expect that there will be any decent number of resale contracts available? And would the initial price of resales through the direct selling phase be supported or elevated by DVC through ROFR — and especially considering that over the course of the direct selling phase the offering price from DVC will likely increase significantly to well over $200?

Just trying to wrap my head around what the real availability of Riviera resales will be, and at what price. There is lots of speculation around here that Riviera resales will be quite low and therefore are a better option than direct. But wouldn’t that mean waiting for a few/several years until there are resales available, and by that time won’t the resale prices be ever increasing in correlation with the direct price increases? And in that context, how would buying resale compare to buying direct now for as little as the mid-160’s with the incentives? You might save on resale, but you would be giving up X number of years of use, including the option of renting your points out during that time to further close the overall cost gap versus waiting and buying resale later.

Interested in everyone’s thoughts on how this will actually play out!

 

[Brett Wyman]

They will be available as soon as a Riviera buyer wants to sell their contract. Probably slightly early at this point.

 

[KAT4DISNEY]

Resales tend to show up around 5-7 months from the first sale. Usually after the resort has opened although I recall one time where it hadn't opened so the contract hadn't been used. No longer recall definitely which resort that was but kind of think it might have been VGF.

It's usually awhile though until there's a good number of resales.

 

[RaymOOOnd]

Can't wait to see what these contracts sell for, after they've sort of taken some time to equilibrate. Want to know if they've truly taken away the main factor making DVC different financially from other timeshares, i.e its weird ability to resist depreciating in value.

Doubt we'll ever be able to buy it for $1 on eBay from somebody who's sick of the maintenance fees, a la other timeshares (if only because ROFR will interfere with market valuation), but would be great if there's a sort-of return to $50-80pp resale sanity for someone who really loves the resort and only wants to stay there

 

[kboo]

Where is the thread with the poll on RIV resale prices? I think the general thought was they'd be over $150 pp at the beginning, and then people disagreed on whether they'd stay relatively high or settle over time. I don't think they will go below BCV/BWV, because the resale purchasers know what they are getting into and they'd want to have home resort advantage at an EP/HS DVC. Those 3 resorts are the only game in town, likely for the next 23 years or so.

BTW, only a small % of the resort/units/points are declared so far (don't know the terminology), yet if you look at availability from mid-December through marathon weekend, the studios are mostly gone at opening, New Years' and marathon week(end) already. I think last night 1br standard was also unavailable for NYE. These are all direct buyers, and I think with fireworks views at 2 parks, holiday times are going to require home resort advantage.

 

[mamaofsix]

Where is the thread with the poll on RIV resale prices? I think the general thought was they'd be over $150 pp at the beginning, and then people disagreed on whether they'd stay relatively high or settle over time. I don't think they will go below BCV/BWV, because the resale purchasers know what they are getting into and they'd want to have home resort advantage at an EP/HS DVC. Those 3 resorts are the only game in town, likely for the next 23 years or so.

BTW, only a small % of the resort/units/points are declared so far (don't know the terminology), yet if you look at availability from mid-December through marathon weekend, the studios are mostly gone at opening, New Years' and marathon week(end) already. I think last night 1br standard was also unavailable for NYE. These are all direct buyers, and I think with fireworks views at 2 parks, holiday times are going to require home resort advantage.

Still tons of availability for all units if a regular guest booking with cash, though. I wonder what percentage of units they are actually making available to DVC owners?

 

[Deb & Bill]

But you'll only be able to use those RRV resale points at RRV, no where else at this point in time. Maybe Reflections, but who knows. The sooner those resales start hitting the market, the owners will want to get all the money they paid in, plus pay off the contract, plus pay the commission on the sale. Not going to be cheap. Or realistic.

 

[Drewferin]

I'm personally more afraid that Disney changes the resale RIV booking window to something less than 11 months out. This type of language is in the contract for RIV direct purchasers so we will have to wait for a contract to hit the resale market. I'm also not sure if they can change this with or without grandfathering in resale owners if they don't make an announcement prior to the first resale contract at RIV.

 

[TexasChick123]

I have been thinking about availability and pricing of Riviera resale contracts. If Riviera takes more than 2 years than CCV to sell out, when is it realistic to expect that there will be any decent number of resale contracts available? And would the initial price of resales through the direct selling phase be supported or elevated by DVC through ROFR — and especially considering that over the course of the direct selling phase the offering price from DVC will likely increase significantly to well over $200?

Just trying to wrap my head around what the real availability of Riviera resales will be, and at what price. There is lots of speculation around here that Riviera resales will be quite low and therefore are a better option than direct. But wouldn’t that mean waiting for a few/several years until there are resales available, and by that time won’t the resale prices be ever increasing in correlation with the direct price increases? And in that context, how would buying resale compare to buying direct now for as little as the mid-160’s with the incentives? You might save on resale, but you would be giving up X number of years of use, including the option of renting your points out during that time to further close the overall cost gap versus waiting and buying resale later.

Interested in everyone’s thoughts on how this will actually play out!

You aren't missing anything. There's always a lot of doom and gloom for every new resort. Each one has its own unique setbacks as well as its own positives. Poly was studios only and the bungalows. CCV is the cabins and the "neutral decor". RR is the resale restriction. People like different resorts for different reasons. I truly believe that the resale value of RR will remain high. There's always a lot of pushback anytime there is a change. The resale restrictions, while predicted over and over again for years, were still a shocking change to many. This will become the new norm for all resorts. You want to be able to trade at 7 months? Buy direct. You want to "buy where you want to stay" and stay exclusively there on those points while getting a discount? Buy resale. Also remember that a lot of these posters desperately want the resale value to tank so that they can pick up resale on the cheap. That means they like the resort more than they let on and are talking out of both sides of their mouths. "This resort is a terrible waste of money, and I hate everything about it." "I can't wait to buy resale on the cheap." It's a very self-serving opinion/prediction about the resale value. If the resale value remains high, then they cannot pick up resale on the cheap at a resort they think they'll like which would upset many as that is their plan. Not everyone loves any resort and would buy, and RR is no different. Some love it, and some will hate it. I love that it isn't over-the-top Disney with the theming, but not everyone shares my opinion.

 

[Jason@dvcstore]

If Riviera takes more than 2 years than CCV to sell out, when is it realistic to expect that there will be any decent number of resale contracts available?

Using the word "decent" I would say that won't happen until January of 2020.

 

[chalee94]

Still tons of availability for all units if a regular guest booking with cash, though. I wonder what percentage of units they are actually making available to DVC owners?

If Disney still owns 95% of the resort, then only 5% or so should be available to book on points. The rest belongs in the cash rental pool.

 

[kboo]

Also remember that a lot of these posters desperately want the resale value to tank so that they can pick up resale on the cheap. That means they like the resort more than they let on and are talking out of both sides of their mouths.

I will admit that when I first heard about the resale restrictions, I was hoping to pick up some distressed RIV resale in 2020 to use for RIV only, as we have plenty of unrestricted points. Then pixie dust + FOMO + seeing the rooms and Skyliner running IRL changed my view.

Taking a step back, though, I didn't see the resale prices being worth the tradeoffs any time soon, so we ended up buying direct. Tradeoffs being: having to wait 1-2 more years to see how resale prices settle, plus wait time on ROFR, potentially buying a stripped contract, prolonged closing time. The restriction on staying somewhere else on those points didn't bother me that much because I have unrestricted points and direct benefits already, so I didn't think that saving a few thousand $ was worth the multi-year wait. (And what if resales are priced at $150 pp for a 200 point contract, which one could get direct for $167 pp now? Is it really worth saving $3400 over 2 years? I could probably rent 1 year's worth of points for about that amount.) Plus we did actually have a need for more points before I thought we'd see a reasonably-priced resale out there.

(I'd be interested to hear if anyone would analyze this differently.)

 

[carli_h]

Also remember that a lot of these posters desperately want the resale value to tank so that they can pick up resale on the cheap. That means they like the resort more than they let on and are talking out of both sides of their mouths. "This resort is a terrible waste of money, and I hate everything about it." "I can't wait to buy resale on the cheap."

I listened to what was posted on location, resale restrictions and cost and even posted that I’d never buy there. Then I watched the promo footage and room tours and fell in love with what I saw. We did the calculations and now I feel like a bit of an idiot as we are proud DVC owners at Riviera. We decided to buy in whilst it was affordable to us.

I doubt it’ll ever get as low as some speculated. It probably will have retained value better than some of the sold out resorts in 10 years time.

 

[Katie L]

I will admit that when I first heard about the resale restrictions, I was hoping to pick up some distressed RIV resale in 2020 to use for RIV only, as we have plenty of unrestricted points. Then pixie dust + FOMO + seeing the rooms and Skyliner running IRL changed my view.

Taking a step back, though, I didn't see the resale prices being worth the tradeoffs any time soon, so we ended up buying direct. Tradeoffs being: having to wait 1-2 more years to see how resale prices settle, plus wait time on ROFR, potentially buying a stripped contract, prolonged closing time. The restriction on staying somewhere else on those points didn't bother me that much because I have unrestricted points and direct benefits already, so I didn't think that saving a few thousand $ was worth the multi-year wait. (And what if resales are priced at $150 pp for a 200 point contract, which one could get direct for $167 pp now? Is it really worth saving $3400 over 2 years? I could probably rent 1 year's worth of points for about that amount.) Plus we did actually have a need for more points before I thought we'd see a reasonably-priced resale out there.

(I'd be interested to hear if anyone would analyze this differently.)

How many points did you buy? I keep reworking the numbers and driving myself crazy.

 

[Katie L]

I listened to what was posted on location, resale restrictions and cost and even posted that I’d never buy there. Then I watched the promo footage and room tours and fell in love with what I saw. We did the calculations and now I feel like a bit of an idiot as we are proud DVC owners at Riviera. We decided to buy in whilst it was affordable to us.

I doubt it’ll ever get as low as some speculated. It probably will have retained value better than some of the sold out resorts in 10 years time.

Carli - I'd be very interested to see your calculations...

 

[TexasChick123]

I listened to what was posted on location, resale restrictions and cost and even posted that I’d never buy there. Then I watched the promo footage and room tours and fell in love with what I saw. We did the calculations and now I feel like a bit of an idiot as we are proud DVC owners at Riviera. We decided to buy in whilst it was affordable to us.

I doubt it’ll ever get as low as some speculated. It probably will have retained value better than some of the sold out resorts in 10 years time.

I said some bad things about it before I bought too. You’re in good company.

 

[carli_h]

Carli - I'd be very interested to see your calculations...

We were looking at a mix of SSR resale and direct points so averaging the equivalent of $135ish pp.

We bought 2 x 100 point contracts at DDR for $171pp

SSR equates to $3.86 pp per year buying in cost ($135 / 35 years)

DRR is $3.42 pp per year buying in cost ($171 / 50 years)

We bought less points than we would have at SSR so we will be paying less dues. The 2 smaller contracts also worked out a lot cheaper than closing costs for SSR resale and 2 small direct contracts.

It is rather simplistic but dues are a bit of an unknown and new resorts seem to have smaller annual increases initially.

 

[Drewferin]

As RIV gets closer to being complete and the gondolas start to prove their worth (Or not) this will help sell the resort. If Disney holds off on direct price increases this may also make people direct prior to direct price increases next Jan (Assuming they continue increasing in Jan).

Those of you adding on at RIV are you simply doing a small contract for standard studios or are you purchasing enough for preferred studios?

 

[SheriRae]

As RIV gets closer to being complete and the gondolas start to prove their worth (Or not) this will help sell the resort. If Disney holds off on direct price increases this may also make people direct prior to direct price increases next Jan (Assuming they continue increasing in Jan).

Those of you adding on at RIV are you simply doing a small contract for standard studios or are you purchasing enough for preferred studios?

We purchased enough for preferred studio.

 

[TexasChick123]

We purchased enough for a standard 1- and 2-bedroom every 2 years for us and our friends. We only stay for 4 nights in the fall for F&W because we go to Universal for a night too. 350 points every 2 years should cover it for us. We rotate resorts so that we hit each one every 1-2 years or so depending on the season, length of stay, resort/amount of points we own, and room size of the other vacations. We’ve become a 1-2 WDW trip per year family. More than that was too much for us.