when will resale market decline

[Kcags]

I have been reading that the resale market is in high demand right now, especially for the small contract I am looking for. What affects this and when is the market expected to decline? I would like to buy within the next year. Will small contracts become more available by that time? Thanks for any insight.

 

[Lorilais_mommie]

I have been reading that the resale market is in high demand right now, especially for the small contract I am looking for. What affects this and when is the market expected to decline? I would like to buy within the next year. Will small contracts become more available by that time? Thanks for any insight.

Someone posted earlier today on other thread that last year at this time there were hardly any lower point contracts..

I have been watching the lower point contracts for SSR and AKL the last two months.. So far sellers are not budging off their asking prices.. (Mid-high 80's )
Contracts have been disappearing almost as fast as they can list them..

There was one 35 point VGF went within an hour!

 

[Nabas]

Traditionally, the slowest time of the year for the resale market is just about coming to an end. Every year, things seem to start to pick up just about now and peak in the summer months.

My theory is that it's spring break season. People just had a great WDW vacation, saw the DVC signs, got back home, started searching the Internet for DVC, stumbled across resales, and, poof, the resale market picks up.

 

[jmmess]

I had read that the end of the year is usually when it declines as annual dues are soon due. Having watched the market for about a year on and off, there were more contracts that sat longer around the holidays, but prices are still up compared to a year ago. Good luck with your hunt!

 

[maggiegirl]

Great info! Very good insight

 

[JWG]

My experience is prices are down. We've purchased multiple contracts at BLT and the price was down about $6 per point from what we've paid 2010 - 2013 on a contract we're finalizing paperwork on right now.

 

[zavandor]

I had read that the end of the year is usually when it declines as annual dues are soon due.

It happened in the past, but recent years less so.
My guess is that dues were more of an issue with the general recession. After that, many people who had economic troubles with their DVC contract sold it and now less people have these problems.

After the last spike (when DVC increased the price for older resorts and user ROFR more aggressively) prices slowly decreased to the actual levels. Will they continue to go down? Many think so. But you never know, DVC might do another similar operation when the Poly DVC is going to go on sale, to help people justify the direct purchase price.

 

[Dean]

I have been reading that the resale market is in high demand right now, especially for the small contract I am looking for. What affects this and when is the market expected to decline? I would like to buy within the next year. Will small contracts become more available by that time? Thanks for any insight.

IMO retail prices are a little high right now due to the VGF hype. However, I don't think you'll see much improvement in very small contracts of say 50-75 or less and maybe not that quickly. If what fits your needs is this small, you're likely better off getting a market based contract that is a great fit for you with a lot of points at the time of purchase. Once you get up around 100 (depending on home resort) things may ease up a little. Regardless, it's likely not worth waiting on the rates to change for most people who are buying in new and who have investigated adequately to determine that DVC is indeed a good fit for their situation. OTOH, for someone looking to add a resale contract to their arsenal, it very well may be worth waiting a year or 2 to see if rates come down and to see if DVD adds additional limitations to resale.

 

[Apps]

IMO retail prices are a little high right now due to the VGF hype. However, I don't think you'll see much improvement in very small contracts of say 50-75 or less and maybe not that quickly. If what fits your needs is this small, you're likely better off getting a market based contract that is a great fit for you with a lot of points at the time of purchase. Once you get up around 100 (depending on home resort) things may ease up a little. Regardless, it's likely not worth waiting on the rates to change for most people who are buying in new and who have investigated adequately to determine that DVC is indeed a good fit for their situation. OTOH, for someone looking to add a resale contract to their arsenal, it very well may be worth waiting a year or 2 to see if rates come down and to see if DVD adds additional limitations to resale.

I think the only danger in waiting to see if further limitations are imposed is that Disney would most likely grandfather prior resales similar to how they did it last time. It makes sense for Disney to do this to not anger current owners and to steer future potential resale buyers to go direct.

 

[supersnoop]

DVD can't take anything else away. They can add "perks" for buying direct, but there's no way to distinguish between resale and direct when it comes to property rights.

 

[Lorilais_mommie]

Rumor had it they are adding more RCI properties.. These are only available to direct buy..

Some big announcement should be coming next week..

 

[KAT4DISNEY]

Rumor had it they are adding more RCI properties.. These are only available to direct buy..

Some big announcement should be coming next week..

On the other thread about the RCI it was posted that more trade options are already showing for both direct and resale. That's probably about as big as it's going to get. The other thing might be last minute cash options or such.

 

[Dean]

I think the only danger in waiting to see if further limitations are imposed is that Disney would most likely grandfather prior resales similar to how they did it last time. It makes sense for Disney to do this to not anger current owners and to steer future potential resale buyers to go direct.

I don't believe this to be true. Not only can they add additional restrictions to unqualified points, they almost certainly will and will retroactively affect those already affected by the current limitations. I cannot see them having multiple grades of unqualified points. IMO the main risk with waiting is simply having less time and trips to use the points. However, I believe those looking to buy in will gain far more by waiting until they truly understand the system and are past the hype, in my book that's about 6 months of active investigation. I do not believe the court of public opinion will have much affect on this issue.

DVD can't take anything else away. They can add "perks" for buying direct, but there's no way to distinguish between resale and direct when it comes to property rights.

See above, they can take anything away that's not contractual but I agree the 11/7 month issues are contractual. I'm reading this 2 ways, one that they can't remove anything currently in place and the other way I'm reading it is that there isn't anything else to take away. I believe both positions are not completely accurate. They could take away RCI, BVTC and even member perks/discounts if they wanted, none earth shattering though. IMO there really aren't feasible perk's they can add in that will prop up retail enough to matter other than things like extensions or free points at older resorts tied to retail purchases. Even then the devil's in the details. If they want to push people to retail more than they are now they're either going to have to get a LOT more aggressive on the tour inducement and sales pressure side and/or create a meaningful VIP system.

 

[nabi]

Direct purchase member services phone line with minimal wait times.

 

[wiigirl]

I had read that the end of the year is usually when it declines as annual dues are soon due. Having watched the market for about a year on and off, there were more contracts that sat longer around the holidays, but prices are still up compared to a year ago. Good luck with your hunt!

 

[Dean]

Direct purchase member services phone line with minimal wait times.

Any additive benefits there would have to be either paid for by the members using it or by DVD. This could be part of a VIP package but would likely require a minimal points owned to qualify so it likely would affect all owners in some way.

 

[Apps]

I don't believe this to be true. Not only can they add additional restrictions to unqualified points, they almost certainly will and will retroactively affect those already affected by the current limitations. I cannot see them having multiple grades of unqualified points.

They already have multiple grades of unqualified points...one class of resale has no restrictions while another class has restrictions. I'm not saying they can't retroactively put restrictions but it makes no sense to do so from a business perspective. Why anger those that already bought...better to direct traffic to direct sales for future customers and keep the current ones happy.

 

[eileenkeeney]

I don't believe this to be true. Not only can they add additional restrictions to unqualified points, they almost certainly will and will retroactively affect those already affected by the current limitations.

I agree.

See above, they can take anything away that's not contractual but I agree the 11/7 month issues are contractual.

My contract says that they CAN change the 11/7 month priority windows.

Up until their last set of restrictions on resales, I fully believed this could be changed only to ALL contracts, which did not bother me.

But Now, I do not see any reason why they could not change this for some contracts and not for others.
Why would this be legally different than changing other changeable things for only a subset of owners? Basically if the contract does not guarantee it, they can remove or change it for some subset of owners.

What is scary is that the subset does not have to be resale purchases. It can be all purchases before some specific date.

Changing this for SOME contracts, but NOT ALL contracts could significantly change the playing field.

I'm reading this 2 ways, one that they can't remove anything currently in place and the other way I'm reading it is that there isn't anything else to take away. I believe both positions are not completely accurate. They could take away RCI, BVTC and even member perks/discounts if they wanted, none earth shattering though. IMO there really aren't feasible perk's they can add in that will prop up retail enough to matter other than things like extensions or free points at older resorts tied to retail purchases. Even then the devil's in the details. If they want to push people to retail more than they are now they're either going to have to get a LOT more aggressive on the tour inducement and sales pressure side and/or create a meaningful VIP system.

They can remove anything that is not guaranteed in the contract.
They can change booking windows, but can not reduce the priority home resort window to less than 30 days (I might have the actual number of days wrong, but I remember it was not a very big window).

Now that they have already decided that they can change rules for only a subset of members, I see no reason why they can not do so for ANY subset of owners that is not a protected group. It does not have to be resale, it can be everyone who purchased before a certain date, or after a certain date, or on a certain date.

I was not negatively effected by the changes that lowered the value of resale contracts. I bought resale many years ago. I don't see the value in using my points for the things that resale points can no longer be used for.
However, the change did significantly alter my view of DVC as being the most ethical timeshare on the market.

 

[Dean]

They already have multiple grades of unqualified points...one class of resale has no restrictions while another class has restrictions. I'm not saying they can't retroactively put restrictions but it makes no sense to do so from a business perspective. Why anger those that already bought...better to direct traffic to direct sales for future customers and keep the current ones happy.

But they are all either qualified or non qualified. They elected to grandfather those prior to the date in question. I doubt they will add to this confusion and I'm not remembering any other system that has created multiple levels of unqualified points though there may be situations I'm not aware of.

My contract says that they CAN change the 11/7 month priority windows.

Up until their last set of restrictions on resales, I fully believed this could be changed only to ALL contracts, which did not bother me.

But Now, I do not see any reason why they could not change this for some contracts and not for others.
Why would this be legally different than changing other changeable things for only a subset of owners? Basically if the contract does not guarantee it, they can remove or change it for some subset of owners.

What is scary is that the subset does not have to be resale purchases. It can be all purchases before some specific date.

Changing this for SOME contracts, but NOT ALL contracts could significantly change the playing field.

They can change the times but I do not believe they can make them different for different owners for current club resorts. They could possibly, maybe back into a VIP system but this would affect all owners potentially and not just qualified vs non qualified. The ways these type of contracts work is there has to be wording that allows it rather than wording that prevents it and I do not see an option that allows differentiation within the contractual areas for current resorts. I haven't looked at VGC or VGF paperwork to be sure there are no differences.

Now that they have already decided that they can change rules for only a subset of members, I see no reason why they can not do so for ANY subset of owners that is not a protected group. It does not have to be resale, it can be everyone who purchased before a certain date, or after a certain date, or on a certain date.

I was not negatively effected by the changes that lowered the value of resale contracts. I bought resale many years ago. I don't see the value in using my points for the things that resale points can no longer be used for.
However, the change did significantly alter my view of DVC as being the most ethical timeshare on the market.

I believe the division for current resorts to be between contractual issues vs other. They have made no changes in contractual issues and I don't believe they can. They have no obligation to support resale prices and from a business standpoint likely should do whatever they can to push people to retail by making changes that reduce the value of resale points.

 

[tlh]

This came straight from a guide at Disney to my email.... I had emailed this person and he told me he had no idea if they would be building the poly because I thought about waiting for it... Then just decided to go resale and save money...So this person was trying to scare me into a direct purchase but I had already made my mind up and signed papers for a resale contract at AKV.....



Hi,

I am checking in with you because your mother emailed me and said that you are buying a resale? And last month you said you wanted to wait and see if we will build at the Poly? So I am confused…

I am sure you already know if you buy a resale you can’t use the Disney Cruise Line or Disney Hotels like the Poly or the hotels in Paris, Tokyo etc…and you can’t use Adventures by Disney.

But…In the future we could also impose more restrictions on the resales like, limiting the points to ONLY to the resort they are deeded…changing the booking window of 7 to 11 months to anything we feel necessary. Currently we are working to restrict the use of your points at your Home Resort ONLY….These restrictions are NOT currently in place…but to recap, the following are:

Resales can NOT use the points:
* for Disney Cruise Line.
* for Disney Hotels like the Grand Floridian or Polynesian etc.
* for Disney Hotels worldwide like Disneyland in California, Paris, Tokyo, Hong Kong.
* for Adventures by Disney like the planned itinerary trips in Costa Rica.
* for the Concierge Collection
(the high end hotels like The Lowe’s Regency in NYC or Sagamore on Lake George in NY etc)

The Disney Cruise Line (DCL) is the really big deal...if you ever have to pay CASH for even ONE CRUISE it is not worth buying a resale. The cost of the one cruise absorbs MORE than any cost saving of buying a resale. I only recommend buying a resale to people that plan on ONLY VACATIONING AT WDW for the rest of their lives and never going anywhere else ever (and that means your kids, grandkids etc...) Most people are concerned if they leave this membership to kids or relatives that they won’t be able to use the DCL in the future.

If you pay cash for one cruise it will absorb ANY cash savings from a resale not to mention in the future your kids will have these limitations. They will care less that you paid less for a resale and now you will actually pay more in the future because you will be paying cash for a cruise? Have you thought about those things?