When to buy plane tickets?

[BNM]

We are headed to Disneyland in feb, flying from Madison wi to SNA. I have been watching the flights daily, and the one I like has hovered around 320 for weeks. Should I buy now, or wait? I would prefer Madison but could do Milwaukee or Chicago if flight out of Madison ends up increasing in price. Do costs of flights in the off season often drop a month or so before? The last tickets I booked were for Florida last year. I think I bought two months before, when the price dropped about 40%.
I was thinking I should wait until after the holidays, but that is scary, to wait that long! There may be no flights left! I find the bing search engine prediction tool NOT helpful. It is only for buying tickets within 7 days, and ther is never any fare history available.
What would you do? Buy now, and get a convenient flight for $321, or wait for a lower fare and risk a not-so-optimal flight?

 

[aurorae]

What does the airline you are looking at charge for changes or refunds?

 

[taaren]

PP has a good point. If you go with Southwest you can get a cheaper price later back as credit. If you're going with most of the major national airlines (Delta, United, US Airways, etc) they'll charge you a fee so you're locked in.

We usually book as soon as its a price that we can live with, as it often goes up later as more tickets sell for the times we want. For us that's about $200 each way per person from the islands to the West Coast. $321 RT from West Coast to Midwest sounds decent but not great to me, but I haven't flown that route frequently since I finished my B.A. a decade ago ...

 

[BNM]

It's frontier, they charge $50 change fee. Plus, there's a fee for checked baggage. The fare is good, but not great. I was waiting for it to go under 300, which may not happen.

 

[TommyG]

I've had good luck in the past buying tickets right after New Years for travel in February. Over the last 5 years this trick has worked, so maybe it'll work again? January 3 - 5 has usually worked for a good price.

Also, traditionally your lowest airfare deals will be available on Tuesday evenings and Wednesdays. Avoid Mondays.

 

[jdb in AZ]

Have you priced flights to LAX? It's a larger airport (too large, IMHO) but with their volume of flights it's often cheaper than SNA.

 

[BNM]

I've had good luck in the past buying tickets right after New Years for travel in February. Over the last 5 years this trick has worked, so maybe it'll work again? January 3 - 5 has usually worked for a good price.

Also, traditionally your lowest airfare deals will be available on Tuesday evenings and Wednesdays. Avoid Mondays.

Ooooh, good. Just what I was hoping to hear. I am focusing on SNA because price difference, if any, does not outweigh the extra cost and hassle to get from LAX to DL. Last time I checked it actually cost more to go from msn to lax. The fare structure doesn't make a lot of sense sometimes.

 

[chinarider]

I was pricing out flights today, coming in from Tucson. If I fly to LAX, I can go direct non stop and if I fly to SNA, I need to change planes. The cost is the same however, because there would be two airports involved with the SNA trip, there are additional taxes and surcharges. I also priced out the differnce for the super shuttle (from LAX vs SNA ) and even though coming from LAX is more expensive, it winds up about the same because of the total flight expense being higher. Also, if I fly to SNA with layover and such, travel time is close to double ( including the time in Super Shuttle ). LAX not bad when you arrive but, can be quite a pain when you leave. My least part of flying is the landing and taking off so, unless there is a huge savings, I'll do the direct non stop from here.

 

[chinarider]

PP has a good point. If you go with Southwest you can get a cheaper price later back as credit.

Can you please clarify what you have mentioned above regarding SW Airlines. I'm confused because, I thought they only had a specific number of seats at the cheaper rates and once they were gone, they were gone.

Thanks

 

[lcasa]

RE alternates - San Diego is often a LOT cheaper. Apparently it's considered an underserved airport - I actually save $250 for our family by flying orlando to lax and then to san diego over getting off at lax not long ago!
Lots to do in san diego too so if you've got time not a bad detour.

This price timing is too much like gambling to me - it gets nervewracking. I use kayak and also airfarewatchdog if i've got enough advance notice - they send you emails when the costs drop. Definitely cheaper tues/wed even for booking. I think sales are usually on wednesdays.
good luck!

 

[owensamo]

We already purchased our tickets for our July trip. Tickets from NC > SAN were on AAA frequent flyer miles. I saw an *awesome* 1-way fare on Southwest home from San Francisco - $154pp - and couldn't pass it up so we're booked!

So to answer the "When" question, I think you need to book the flights when you see a fare you're willing to live with. If the airline has favorable change policies, then book when you see the maximum fare you'll pay - and keep checking for lower rates.

You might consider checking Southwest out of Milwaukee to SNA - I just checked for a random Sunday (2/5) and they have 1-way fares of $139pp. You can only look up Southwest fares on their website, and they fly out of Milwaukee and Midway in Chicago.

 

[torene03]

Southwest is pretty awesome. We fly from San Jose to SNA in Dec and I booked our tickets in June ($59 down, $89 back). Well, just for fun I checked a month later and the ticket back was now $59. I changed it and received credit with no problems. Then in Oct they were having their $39 sale, and ta-da, the flight down was $39! Scrambled to change the tickets and now I have 2 tickets for only $230 and about $160 in Southwest credit.

 

[skiingfast]

I would suggest the OP look at this site http://www.bing.com/travel/flights

It has a predictor for pricing built into it but doesn't work most smaller airports.

Also look at different airports to leave from and fly to. Some routes are cheaper than others.

 

[taaren]

Can you please clarify what you have mentioned above regarding SW Airlines. I'm confused because, I thought they only had a specific number of seats at the cheaper rates and once they were gone, they were gone.
Thanks

Sometimes Southwest runs fare specials, so even if you book a regular getaway fare at say, $79, (fairly decent) sometimes they might go down to $59 for a three-day special (they'll send you an e-mail if you're signed up for their ads, not too much spam, worthwhile IMHO).

A few times per year they run a very very special sale, used to be 30/60/90, last summer it was 40/80/120 based on mileage (I think under 300 miles is $40, 300-600 is $80, 600+ is $120?) and then you can really score and get your fare for cheaper ... if you have a previously booked flight just re-book it with the special and they'll issue you a credit that can be used anytime in the next year. Generally the sales only work if they have those lowest getaway fares available for your flight though!