I have never heard of ticket prices going down, especially APs. It never hurts to buy your APs early, if you are sure that you will be using those and not a pkg. Even if you did change your mind and decided to go with a pkg, your AP vouchers will never expire. Their 1 year "clock" only starts ticking once they have been turned into an actual pass at the WDW gate or I think you can buy activated APs at one of the stores in the Orlando airport Disney stores. Also, the only places that you can buy APs is at the DS or WDW (mail order or at the parks & DTD). So, if you have the $ to layout (and "invest" for a future trip, in case you change your mind & go with a new pkg), its a win-win situation.