When Do You Think the Price Will Start Going Down?

[lat]

It is great to be a DVC owner and to see the price per point keep going up.

I am in the process of trying to sell some of my points, but am really struggling to part from them. Each year, though with less time left, the price keeps going up.

I got a call from TTS store for a really low offer, I told the sales person that I just was not interested. The contract, at that price, will undoubedly bought back by Disney, $58 for VB!!! I will keep the points for myself at that price.

I think I should just keep my points a little longer, rent out the ones I can't use, especially since the longer I wait, the higher the price.

When do you think the price will start going down? My guess is as long as they are still selling SSR, the price will be going up or maintained. But not sure what will happen afterwards.

 

[Happy Birthday Cat]

IMHO prices will stay up as long as Disney is using its ROFR. They will in all liklyhood contyinue doing that as long as they are selling new resorts to keep the price of them up. Let's here it for the new Contemporary DVC or even Eagle Pines to follow SSR!

HBC

 

[lat]

but don't you think at some point the diminishing year factor will kick in? Maybe 30 or 40 years don't make as much difference, but when it gets to 20 some years, with sky high prices, I am not sure how they can maintain it.

On a sidenote, someone told me, a reliable source, confirmed by another person, that DVC sales guide position is the most coveted position at Disney and pretty much unless someone retires, there is no opening.

 

[DVCconvert]

but don't you think at some point the diminishing year factor will kick in? Maybe 30 or 40 years don't make as much difference, but when it gets to 20 some years, with sky high prices, I am not sure how they can maintain it.

I think it will boil down to the last few years.-to the point where renting/selling the contract costs exceeds the rack price on a comparable stay at a like accomendation.

 

[rocketriter]

I suspect that if the diminishing year factor starts to kick in eventually (it will), right about then Disney will offer ways for us to extend our memberships, which will keep us in the fold longer and simultaneously help them keep sales prices high.

 

[spiceycat]

the last 15 to 10 years maybe.

but consider these points - if the price goes down to where DVC might be a steal - DVC won't allow it - why....

because they can buy it back - and even if they don't want to sell it for the last few years of its life as a timeshare - they could very easily rent it.

Which is why if the economy is during good when the contracts end - I really think that DVC will allow it to end - or should I say WDW.

Judy say that when she was trying to sale to someone with money it was just about impossible. Why?

they say they would rather rent. It was just when their favorite DVC resort became unavailable (because DVC member had already reserved it) - did they finally buy.

there are several people who would paid the rental price for the DVC resorts and not think a thing about it.

 

[Dean]

Based on other top RTU properties and my knowlege of Disney, I'd guess the prices will start to ease down with about 26-28 years remaining but it will be a slow process. In part it depends on what Disney does with and after SSR and with ROFR. Also if they offer extensions, which I truly doubt they will.

 

[JimFitz]

I agree with DVCConvert.

 

[timC]

There are a number of factors to consider...

Even ROFR is market driven. If there's a market for a DVC1 contract at $60-70, Disney will be in there. If people no longer want these contracts at this price, the ROFR floor will fall. The laws of supply and demand will catch up with them eventually.

To some degree, they may be propping up the value to protect their new contract sales, but again, supply and demand. They're not going to sell too many of these contracts at a loss... They'll have to follow the market.

I think the resale market for DVC1 contracts should be strong for the next 10 years... The Disney brand alone adds tremendous value. The resorts are very well maintained, and they're in those great locations. And 30 years is still a very long time... an entire generation of WDW fun.

 

[FLYNZ4]

Originally posted by timC
There are a number of factors to consider...

Even ROFR is market driven. If there's a market for a DVC1 contract at $60-70, Disney will be in there. If people no longer want these contracts at this price, the ROFR floor will fall. The laws of supply and demand will catch up with them eventually.

To some degree, they may be propping up the value to protect their new contract sales, but again, supply and demand. They're not going to sell too many of these contracts at a loss... They'll have to follow the market.

I think the resale market for DVC1 contracts should be strong for the next 10 years... The Disney brand alone adds tremendous value. The resorts are very well maintained, and they're in those great locations. And 30 years is still a very long time... an entire generation of WDW fun.

Tim,

I tend to agree with you... but I do think that the shorter term contracts will start having an effect on price...and 30 years remaining may be about the right time. It is really hard to predict.

I personally feel that since most people who buy DVC have kids... and there is a natural desire to pass their their DVC onto their kids... there will be an emotional attachment to the longer (ie: DVC-2 type)contracts. I think a major influencer will be if DVC continues to build more resorts on property... which I personally think that they will choose to do. I expect that you will start seeing a price spread between DVC-1 and DVC-2 contracts over time because of this.

Of course, this price spread is not good for new DVC sales... so I still think that they will offer contract extensions to DVC-1 members at some point.

/Jim

 

[joepoe]

Originally posted by DVCconvert
I think it will boil down to the last few years.-to the point where renting/selling the contract costs exceeds the rack price on a comparable stay at a like accomendation.

I tried to model out to 2043 on an excel spreadsheet a couple years ago and it seemed to me, comparing the present value of what it could cost to stay at some discounted rack rate, and including 3% for inflation, that the price would peak in about 2020 before it would begin to decline. The reason for the decline would be that the present value of future vacations for the last 22 years of the contract to 2042 would be less and less.