When do you think prices will stop climbing?

[Mackenzie Click-Mickelson]

And there you have it....that's the answer, but many Americans don't want to talk about it.

And if that didn't just miraculously plug the holes in every industry experiencing shortages what's the answer then?

 

[GAN]

I don't think this is at all true, we have 329.5 million counted and 159.82 employed, 6.5 mil on unemployment and 9919094 on SSDI.
The math here, from public sources, tells me that if all things are on the up and up there should be a decent matchup. FWIW I 100% reject the idea people are inherently lazy.

My biggest concern is for the bodies of which you speak, the unprotected workers our laws don't shield and the sort of work they end up doing, many jobs which don't make lists. The low wages in some industries and such which together create a dangerous situation. If they get sick can they stay home and still pay bills, will their families be ok in high risk jobs?

The conversation needs to shift from head count to quality of life IMO and why exactly it is that the people who are here avoid some jobs.

This isn't the problem and I completely reject the idea it is

Sorry -I'm not sure where you're going with the quality of life thing. But, if I'm understanding correctly, no one is assuming people avoid certain jobs. It is true that some people remain unemployed until the job with the best fit becomes available(i.e, an IT professional waiting for an IT job). The problem is we don't have the people to fill the positions. Sure -hundreds of thousands of young people graduate college every year and enter the workforce ...some get jobs their field, some in a totally different field, some wait tables or tend bar, and some others live with their parents until they find something that can help them move out on their own. I'm suggesting that a good percentage of 4% simply don't want to work or can't ..could be drugs or mental health, who knows. That's a societal problem that has been unavoidable for millennia. We need people to drive trucks(until fully autonomous become available -soon), and work in warehouses and freight terminals -as well as other fields, in order to a support an economy with this kind of demand.

Edited: I agree -lower paying jobs need to be brought up to a "living wage" because it is true that people would be more likely to stay(or enter) into a career at say Fast Food or something similar.

 

[TwoMisfits]

On the issue of people not willing to work for the pay - I'm gonna disagree, having seen two young adults try to get their 1st jobs (one for all year PT and one for summer). Companies are being VERY selective about who they will hire for these jobs (aka, they want everyone already pretrained with tons of experience for these "entry" jobs), and are willing to leave the jobs empty and blame the job market vs just hiring a kid to train...

 

[Mackenzie Click-Mickelson]

Just for clarity when talking about unemployment rates keep in mind that for the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics unemployment is defined as out of work and able to work but still looking for work (technically looking in the past 4 weeks). With this pandemic there are people who have exited the employment field entirely. This should not be construed as people too lazy to work either.

 

[CaptainAmerica]

Just for clarity when talking about unemployment rates keep in mind that for the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics unemployment is defined as out of work and able to work but still looking for work (technically looking in the past 4 weeks). With this pandemic there are people who have exited the employment field entirely. This should not be construed as people too lazy to work either.

Unemployment rate doesn't really matter right now, regardless of whether you're talking about U-3 or U-6. If you're a company who lost an Operations Supervisor, it doesn't really matter to you if it's because she turned lazy all of a sudden, didn't want to go into the office and risk catching COVID, took early retirement when she was furloughed in 2020, had to care for an aging relative, or decided to be a stay-at-home mom. All you know or care about is that you're down an Operations Supervisor and need to find a new one.

From a consumer perspective (why are things so expensive and why does service suck?), the thing you care about isn't the unemployment rate, it's the number of unfilled jobs.

 

[Sinder]

Yes but the quality of life in the countries from which people emigrate is incredibly poor (which is, of course, whey they emigrate in the first place). A poor family from Haiti can come here and have a working class American life, which is a hell of a lot better than a poor Haitian life, and their children have a great shot at being middle class. All of this predates the pandemic. Americans don't have enough babies to support an aging population, so we need lots and lots of immigrants to fill out our economy.

But for reasons that might get me suspended (again), there is currently a bipartisan consensus against the very thing that will get us out of this, which is a broad and generous immigration push.

We've got 35+ million people living under the poverty level here already, we don't need to add more. Figuring out a way to help them have a working class American life and a shot at being middle class should be our priority before we bring in lots and lots more than the 1+ million of immigrants we do every year.

 

[LuvOrlando]

Yes but the quality of life in the countries from which people emigrate is incredibly poor (which is, of course, whey they emigrate in the first place). A poor family from Haiti can come here and have a working class American life, which is a hell of a lot better than a poor Haitian life, and their children have a great shot at being middle class.

I hate to burst the bubble but quality of life for many people here can be monumentally awful, my grandma came here and got TB in a Brooklyn sweatshop. The way things are now many people come here to be horribly abused or homeless and without a voice, cities everywhere have people spilling out into the streets and it's a giant mess. I will stand by saying we need to better protect vulnerable people, where is the housing and support services?

This whole sidebar has nothing to do with inflation, if you have zero everything is too expensive.

 

[Mackenzie Click-Mickelson]

Unemployment rate doesn't really matter right now, regardless of whether you're talking about U-3 or U-6. If you're a company who lost an Operations Supervisor, it doesn't really matter to you if it's because she turned lazy all of a sudden, didn't want to go into the office and risk catching COVID, took early retirement when she was furloughed in 2020, had to care for an aging relative, or decided to be a stay-at-home mom. All you know or care about is that you're down an Operations Supervisor and need to find a new one.

From a consumer perspective (why are things so expensive and why does service suck?), the thing you care about isn't the unemployment rate, it's the number of unfilled jobs.

I'm just talking about in general. When people talk about our current crisis in the workforce. People often quote the unemployment rates (right now reflecting low) and say "why can't we still get people" which is def. an open-ended topic with a variety of answers but there still will be a group of people that left the workforce entirely and are not unemployed.

I do think that is something we might have seen in the pandemic that was more front and center than before when it sorta wasn't talked about or at least specified. Then you also have that during the pandemic the discussion surrounding stimulus as a reasoning for why people didn't just get jobs. But again keep in mind people who are not classified as unemployed. The topic surrounding unfilled jobs should include people who are not unemployed because at least some of those unfilled jobs is due to that person leaving the workforce entirely. That group of people do get talked about but often in a negative way throughout this pandemic.

In other words you're literally saying the same thing I am. I was just clarifying because people often think (not really their fault either) that everyone who is without a job right now is unemployed but that's not actually the case at least definition-wise.

 

[dvcgirl67]

And if that didn't just miraculously plug the holes in every industry experiencing shortages what's the answer then?

I was responding to CaptainAmerica when he said this..."The issue is that there literally aren't enough bodies in the country. A country with a fertility rate of 1.7 can't sustain its economy without robust inbound immigration."

We don't have enough people to fill the job openings we currently have....we need to allow for more legal immigration for folks who would like to emigrate here to become part of our society and contribute to our economy.

I also believe that some of the issues we currently have should work themselves out to a certain degree in the next year. The massive economic shift from being a service economy to one that has tilted towards massive consumer goods consumption will right itself if we can move beyond the emergency phase of this once in a hundred year pandemic. Hundreds of thousands of Americans have moved from the service industry to companies like Amazon when the work in their service jobs ended or became too sporadic to provide for their families. The pendulum won't likely swing all the way back anytime soon....but it will swing back towards a service economy.

 

[Mackenzie Click-Mickelson]

I was responding to CaptainAmerica when he said this..."The issue is that there literally aren't enough bodies in the country. A country with a fertility rate of 1.7 can't sustain its economy without robust inbound immigration."

We don't have enough people to fill the job openings we currently have....we need to allow for more legal immigration for folks who would like to emigrate here to become part of our society and contribute to our economy.

I also believe that some of the issues we currently have should work themselves out to a certain degree in the next year. The massive economic shift from being a service economy to one that has tilted towards massive consumer goods consumption will right itself if we can move beyond the emergency phase of this once in a hundred year pandemic. Hundreds of thousands of Americans have moved from the service industry to companies like Amazon when the work in their service jobs ended or became too sporadic to provide for their families. The pendulum won't likely swing all the way back anytime soon....but it will swing back towards a service economy.

Your words were "And there you have it....that's the answer, but many Americans don't want to talk about it." That very much sounded like you were saying it was like THE miracle answer no one wanted to dare mention. The discussion around immigration is fair game but is that "the answer" to solve it all (or put a dent in it) and is it one that Americans just stubbornly (or in a bias way as I'm sure you were implying) won't discuss or are there other things at play too. Keep in mind someone who immigrates here is not necessarily going to fill jobs that are showing the most issues nor is that a guarantee in it bringing the prices back down. Work-related visas aside as that is directly related to specified work (especially if we consider agriculture to name one).

 

[goofyernmost]

I imagine pay isn't the issue then, benefits are probably a bigger issue these days considering the sort of work they are doing, are there good solid benefits with affordable deductibles and sick time?


Most of the unfillable jobs are not well paying IT type positions with stellar benefits packages, bonus, remote hybrid and 401K. For those that are, every year thousands of college kids roll out into the workforce and a majority of women still get paid less, maybe it's time to promote women and minorities from within and bring in college students to pay their loans.


Most of the people who passed away were elderly so not likely workers but as far as prices are concerned, I can take uptick that if it prevents another 2020 and gives Americans jobs easing up on the deficit, but that's not what is happening now because now is other things not a shift back to US which hasn't happened yet.

And and a lot of those elderly worked part time in the very jobs that business is having trouble getting people the minimum wage jobs. Most of the good paying jobs are not looking for help. Some that were stuck in the lower paying jobs found openings as people either retired or died in the higher ranks. Besides we didn't lose most of the 840K in just older people, most of them died in the initial wave before any vaccine. So it was the perfect storm. Upper areas opening up to many that had been overqualified for the minimum wage jobs. Now, the lower end jobs will have to pay more to fill the job needs which will begin a group of people complaining about how prices have gone up because business had to pay the help more money. Besides the unemployment rate is the lowest it has been in years so the lazy excuse is just another phase of misinformation. Another problem is that the idiocy of keeping migrant workers on the other side of the border has increase dramatically the cost of our food. So all the crap is now costing us more. There are reasons for everything and not all the reasons are evil.

 

[Foxhound3857]

When do you all think gas prices will go back down to reasonable rates, I.E closer to $3 a gallon.

P.S I know it fluctuates by region. For reference, I live in the High Desert in California.

 

[amylevan]

When do you all think gas prices will go back down to reasonable rates, I.E closer to $3 a gallon.

P.S I know it fluctuates by region. For reference, I live in the High Desert in California.

If Russia invades Ukraine, not anytime soon.

 

[dvcgirl67]

If Russia invades Ukraine, not anytime soon.

Yes...if that happens it will throw a wrench into energy prices for sure.

 

[JimMIA]

Yes...if that happens it will throw a wrench into energy prices for sure.

And many, many other things...

 

[cvjw]

When do you all think gas prices will go back down to reasonable rates, I.E closer to $3 a gallon.

P.S I know it fluctuates by region. For reference, I live in the High Desert in California.

When America starts producing our own oil/gas again and quit having to import it. We were producing so much product not that long ago that we were exporting it to other countries. Now we import again and are at the mercy of foreign governments.

 

[dvcgirl67]

And many, many other things...

For sure. Let's hope it doesn't happen....but seems increasingly like it will.

 

[JimMIA]

 

[dvcgirl67]

When America starts producing our own oil/gas again and quit having to import it. We were producing so much product not that long ago that we were exporting it to other countries. Now we import again and are at the mercy of foreign governments.

That's not the whole picture....our gas/oil producers don't sell exclusively to the United States....the market is set globally, and they are looking to earn top dollar just like all global producers.

 

[JimMIA]

That's not the whole picture....our gas/oil producers don't sell exclusively to the United States....the market is set globally, and they are looking to earn top dollar just like all global producers.

Right, it's not the whole picture -- but it IS a valid point that both contributes to US inflation and creates great risk to our economy in the event of an invasion of Ukraine. It also greatly restricts our range of options in responding to an invasion of Ukraine.

Like it or not, our economy runs on petroleum and anything that affects petroleum (whether domestic or global) will have a big effect.